Out of the Past

Over the past 2 months (since May 21st) we've made-up all these games in the standings from the teams ahead of us in the WC race: Reds: made-up 6 games - now 7 games back Padres: made-up 5.5 games - now 5.5 games back DBacks: made-up 7 games - now 5.5 games back Dodgers: made-up 9.5 games - now 2.5 games back Brewers: made-up 10 games - now 1 game back Astros: made-up 11 games - now 1 game back Rockies: made-up 12 games - now 1 game back Braves: made-up 9 games - now 1 game back Phillies: made-up 10.5 games - now 1 game back We've made-up combined 80.5 games from the 9 teams ahead of us and are now only a combined 25.5 games behind them. If we add a good OF and keep Borowski, Helms and Herges I think we can catch all of them. We could catch them even without adding another good OF as long as Reggie is kept on the bench.

It seems like when we talk about what this team needs for the future everyone talks about CF and catcher. I actually have been impressed by Olivo and hope we can keep him around. Center field is another story. But isn't anyone concerned about Willingham in left? To me he just doesn't look like the long-term answer. Since May 1 Josh is hitting .238 with 6 home runs and 25 RBI in 57 games played. That works out to 17 HR and 71 RBI when projected over a full 162 games. Is that enough out of a LF who is a liability defensively? Am I wrong in thinking we should use some of our pitching depth to acquire a LF for the future? I've been disappointed and surprised in his play but would give him at least through the end of the year and into part of next season before giving up on him. Defensively he's atrocious but that was expected and perhaps he'll improve with time. The bigger concern is his hitting. Before the season I figured he would be around .850 in OPS and a hot week to 10 days can put him there but he hasn't hit since April. I agree about Olivo. We should keep him.

I'm no longer officially sold on Hermida morphing into a 30 homer guy. I'd still take .300/20/100 while knowing he'll probably sport a .400 OBP and always be a 20/20 guy. I'd take that also, but he's 23. The power will come. As a hitter I see him more like Abreu than Giles but I don't think he'll steal as many bases as Abreu. I guess Jacobs and Willingham were not discussed in the article?

This team is not ready for primetime but the thing is there are no primetime players in the WC race... it's a race between mediocre and bad teams. Prior to the homestand I thought there was a chance to get back into the WC race but 4-4 vs bad teams hasn't helped.

isnt Hermida having a hard enough time driving guys in right now though? Uggla is doing a fine job at that note: im doing this blindly off the top of my head, but it doesnt seem like Hermida is driving anyone in I think that's the point though, he wouldn't have to drive anyone in, he'd just be getting on base to be driven in. Perhaps have a line-up of: Hanley Hermida Jacobs Cabrera Uggla Willingham Uggla would be an RBI machine behind Cabs and Jake. I like that lineup. Uggla is better than Jeremy driving guys in and Jeremy is better than Uggla getting on base. Put Jeremy in front of the sluggers and move Uggla to 4th or 5th where he will have a lot more RBI opportunities than he does hitting 2nd. Uggla is a good run producer and I feel he's getting too many PAs with no one on hitting 2nd. The current lineup is underutilizing Jeremy's OBP and Uggla's run production potential.

so where do you want Hermida to hit? #2 behind Hanley

... to score. Jeremy has gotten on base via singles, doubles, triples, BB, IBB and HBP 81 times and has come around to score 22 times (27%). Hanley has gotten on base via singles, doubles, triples, BB, IBB and HBP 123 times and has come around to score 64 times (52%). The difference between 27% and 52% is the reason you put high OBP guys (i.e. Jeremy) in front of your sluggers and not in front of the Reggies and Treanors.

Hermy doesnt have anyone really special batting behind him either That's why he should be batting either 2nd or 3rd in our lineup so the big bopers can drive him home. With that high OBP he would have at least 40 runs by now; batting where he is right now he has half that number. Yep I keep looking at the lineup cards each day hoping to see Hermida 3, Cabs 4, Jacobs 5. Since May 22nd, Jacobs is hitting .329/.359/.595 as compared to Hermida at .302/.383/.451 Id rather have the slugger in the 3 hole Yep thats fair, and there is no denying Jacobs has been excellent. I'm just obsessed with OBP, I think its from spending too much time tracking minor leaguers. I don't think a guy with .388 OBP should be hitting 6th when the 7th and 8th hitters barely hit .200 and that's the case with Reggie and Treanor behind Hermida. I think we're wasting Hermida's high OBP. He should be hitting 2nd.

He's a corner infield guy, I'd like to have him, but there's no room. I hate to continue this fantasy because so many other teams could use his bat and have more resources and are conceivably would be a better fit, but it's worth mentioning that Miguel Cabrera was a career infielder who came up to the bigs to play left field. I forget the details but I know Hillenbrand went to Toronto with baggage. If we were to get him who would you put on the bench, Willingham or Hermida? I've been a little disappointed in Willingham's output but I would still take him or Hermida over Hillenbrand. Take a look at Hillenbrand's career numbers... they're not good for a corner IF or corner OF (.290 / .328 / .451). If getting Hillenbrand somehow translated into bye bye Reggie then I would be all for it but I don't see the scenerio where Hillenbrand would eat into Reggie's PT.

Trading him will more then likely bring more value then letting him walk. With Atlanta back into it, and Brian McCann turning into an absolute animal, what about Jarrod Saltamacchia (I tried as hard as I could with the spelling). He's really struggling in double AA which has dropped his stock a little, but is still considered one of the top catching prospects in all of baseball. I know Atlanta is "in our division," but I really don't see use contending for 2 more years which is Borowski's lifespan as a player pretty much, and we can probably settle or longterm catching problem with the move. I don't know. Just an idea. I'd rather move Borowski for a high ceiling catcher, then go after a less then perfect CF like Willy Taveras. Just call him Salty. I asked some Braves fans about his drop-off... he had a finger injury and that may have had something to do with it. This is the Braves, not the Cubs, so I don't think that trade would fly. I'm happy with Olivo so it would be better to get a CF but if one is not available then it would be nice to have a catcher in the pipeline. Taveras is of no interest to me.

I don't follow the minors like many of you on here do and I don't get into the trade discussions but I have a couple of questions: - if we trade Borowski straight up what type of minor league prospect (top / mid-level / crap) would he net us? - if we keep him in '06 an offer him arbitration (so we can get compensatory picks) what would be a ballpark figure for his '07 arbitration salary if he accepts arbitration? - would he be a Type A, B or C free agent? - would the prospect he nets us be more or less valuable than the compensatory picks he would net us if he leaves as a free agent?

To answer my own question I think if we're 5 game out Beinfest sells. The only way we become buyers is if we get to within 3 games and that's not likely to happen. I hope at least we play well enough the next couple of weeks so that Beinfest has a few sleepless nights over to buy or not to buy. When you say "sell" I assume you mean moving a Borowski, maybe Herges, etc. Or do you mean (excluding Cabs/Willis) trading existing starters or starting pitchers for more prospects? Personally I don't see trading Borowski as "selling". Wonder if you or others agree? To me trading Borowski or Herges or Helms for prospects would be selling.

To answer my own question I think if we're 5 game out Beinfest sells. The only way we become buyers is if we get to within 3 games and that's not likely to happen. I hope at least we play well enough the next couple of weeks so that Beinfest has a few sleepless nights over to buy or not to buy.

I was looking at where we were in the standings when Beinfest made previous July trades: '02 - 45-43 and 6.5 games out of the WC in 5th place - Beinfest sold '03 - 47-45 and 4.5 games out of the WC in 6th place - Beinfest bought '04 - 52-51 and 5.0 games out of the WC in 5th place - Beinfest reshuffled '05 - 53-48 and 3.5 games out of the WC in 4th place - Beinfest did nothing (*) Right now we're 41-50 and 7.0 games out in 10th place. The question is: How close do we need to get for Beinfest to be a buyer? (*) Villone = journeyman middle reliever = nothing

Cabrera slugged .561 last year and is slugging .549 this year. His homers are slightly down but his doubles are up. Last year he had an extra base hit every 7.9 AB... this year he has an extra base hit every 7.7 AB (slight improvement). Last year he had an extra base hit every 8.7 PA... this year he has an extra base hit every 9.0 PA (slight decline). I don't get all the talk about how his powers numbers are down. If 2 out of the 3 stats you provide indicate a decline, no matter how slight, the numbers are down. Plus, if memeory serves, he had more homeruns at the break last year than this year. Delgado does provide protection, and anyone begging to differ needs only look at the drastic improvement both Wright and Beltran have had with him in the lineup. Over the next three years would I rather have Jakey than Delgado? Of course, but that doesn't mean that this year, the trade's a wash... If Cabrera had one more HR this year his SLG would be the same as last year. The decline equivalent to one homerun in 3.5 months on the season is nothing to be concerned about, in my opinion.

Cabrera slugged .561 last year and is slugging .549 this year. His homers are slightly down but his doubles are up. Last year he had an extra base hit every 7.9 AB... this year he has an extra base hit every 7.7 AB (slight improvement). Last year he had an extra base hit every 8.7 PA... this year he has an extra base hit every 9.0 PA (slight decline). I don't get all the talk about how his powers numbers are down.

I'm happy with his overall numbers although I think he would better off hitting 2nd. Two concerns about him is that he seems to be rather fragile and although his patience at the plate is a major plus I see some of Bobby Abreu in him in that in RBI situations he's patient to a fault.. in RBI situations he should me more aggressive.

Wheres the other 10%? :mischief2 :mischief The articles were from a couple of years ago and I don't remember the exact percentages but I remember they added up to 92% or 93% and the breakdown was about 40% / 40% / 10%. The remainder came from other places but didn't say where. I assume there are fans that come from counties such as Monroe, Martin and Collier bur the articles didn't mention them.

I think a big part of the reason the Marlins have a winning record when Alfredo plays is that when he plays Reggie usually doesn't play and if Reggie doesn't play he can't get in the way of us winning games. I bet the Marlins have a winning record with every player when that player plays and Reggie doesn't play.

Fishfan79, I don't know who told you what but a couple of years ago the fan breakdown by county was widely reported by the media and it was about 40% Miami-Dade, 40% Broward and 10% Palm Beach. The original article with the breakdown was a NY Times article that quoted a Marlins Marketing VP.

Can he play the OF? Here's a guy that hit 23 HRs the last time he started.. and his prorated stats for this year aren't too shabby. Why not start a vet? I would give it a shot but don't think it's going to happen because Hermida would have to play CF and for whatever reason Girardi / Beinfest don't want play there. The OF defense would get even worse than what it already is but the added punch would make up for it. My lineup would be: SS - Ramirez CF - Hermida 3B - Cabrera 1B - Jacobs 2B - Uggla LF - Willingham RF - Helms C - Olivo You couild flip Jacobs and Uggla, I don't care. That lineup would score a bunch of runs. no reason to move Uggla out of the 2 spot and Jake out of the 3 spot. Ramirez Uggla Jacobs Cabrera Hermida Olivo Helms Willingham :cool Hermida's high OBP is perfect for #2 and Uggla is a good RBI guy and would get more ABs with runners on hitting 4th or 5th. Hititng 2nd he's getting too many ABs with none on. Cabrera has hit 3rd most of the season and that's where I want my best hitter to hit.

Can he play the OF? Here's a guy that hit 23 HRs the last time he started.. and his prorated stats for this year aren't too shabby. Why not start a vet? I would give it a shot but don't think it's going to happen because Hermida would have to play CF and for whatever reason Girardi / Beinfest don't want play there. The OF defense would get even worse than what it already is but the added punch would make up for it. My lineup would be: SS - Ramirez CF - Hermida 3B - Cabrera 1B - Jacobs 2B - Uggla LF - Willingham RF - Helms C - Olivo You couild flip Jacobs and Uggla, I don't care. That lineup would score a bunch of runs.

See, I think everyone's missing my point. We're talking playoffs here, so it's understandable we'd be chasing equally playoff worthy teams. The only reason we're still in this is due to the incredible weakness of the league. To even get into reasonable position, we'd have to leapfrog Philly, Atlanta, Houston and Milwaukee, and even then we'd have the entire NL West and Cincy in front of us. My point is, to get back within shouting distance of the wild-card, we might as well aim at the division, because the kind of winning streak we're talking about needing would put us right back in the division, too, especially considering all the head-to-heads that will help make up ground faster than hoping for help from elsewhere. I don't agree. It will take 90+ wins to win the NL East and that's impossible. It will take mid-80s wins at the most to win the WC and that's at least a possibility if we upgrade CF.

We play only bad teams through 7/31. If we go on a little good streak, say 7 of 9, that would probably put us about 4 games out and right in the middle of the WC race. Of course with Reggie playing every game and doing nothing other than getting in the way of victories on almost every game he plays it will be tough to go on a winning streak even against bad teams.

anyone for a translation? There's really nothing new in the article. If you google language it you'll probably get a good chunk of the gist of the article.