Out of the Past

A new stadium is so desperately desirable even a proposed site in Hialeah begins to look good. I actually laughed at that. Cote making that statement makes it clear he has no clue where the proposed location is. There's nothing wrong with the location.

Interesting, however, I'd be interested to see how you statistically quantified the average centerfielder. If it's using the mean of NL centerfielders, it's probably less accurate than using the mode or median as there are several superb centerfielders as far as OPS goes and there are also several substantially below average ones, skewing the "average" OPS. Just my two cents... I used the mean of the other 15 NL teams and that came out to .762. The median was .742. It was a very quick calculation but if I was to get more technical about it I would have removed the top 1 or 2 and bottom 1 or 2 to remove the skewing. Removing the top / bottom 1 the mean would be .754 and removing the top / bottom 2 the mean would be .751. The next question would be.. should I use the revised mean or should I use the median? I would probably go around in circles debating what would be the favorable one to use and would end up using some weighted average between the 2. Supposing I had used the median (.742) and not the mean (.762), the impact on the team's OPS would .010 instead of .012... either way, with a real CF we would have one of the top hitting teams in the NL and that's while playing 81 games in a pitcher's park.

It looks like Girardi is coming around on the more Olivo playing time idea. If Olivo catches 4 out of 5 the rest of the way that would leave him at around 115 starts which is a career high but is not such a high number. I would like to see Girardi tweak the lineup a bit by moving Jeremy to 2nd and moving Uggla to 4th or 5th. This way we would take full advanateg of Jeremy's high OBP and would get Uggla additional ABs with runners on. Uggla has hit too well to not take advantage of his bat with runners on and hitting 2nd he's getting too many ABs with noone on which is what's happening because of the pitcher's spot and the black hole in the 8th spot (when occupied by Reggie or Treanor).

Spencer is as good as it gets at making things up and filling columns with errors (intentional or not) but as I understand it the writer doesn't write the headlines so I wouldn't hang the misleading headline on him.

I think the buyers or sellers question is still up in the air and the answer depends on how we play as we approach 7/31. It wouldn't surprise me if the team, as it is comprised right now, ends up anywhere between 64 and 81 wins. There's a 17 game gap in my prediction because to me it's VERY difficult to predict how young pitchers will develop and most of our starters are rookies. If we add a good hitting CF my prediction totals would be bumped up 3 or 4 games and 84 or 85 wins may well be enough to win the WC.

...finally as someone living in Kendall now, I would love to see this stadium built where they are proposing cause it would be a straight shot up the turnpike for me...but yeah that is me being selfish!!! Which has always (the last three years) been the Marlins plan, to open up the south surburban market which they see as the most important to their future. That's why they've been willing to lose fans from north Broward and PBC, believing they will more than make up for any losses with new fans from Homestead, Kendall, Coral Gables, etc. The reason they looked at the OB location first and now at the Hialeah location is because that's where the possible funding is. If Broward or Palm Beach were interested in helping with the stadium as opposed to Miami-Dade then the Marlins would be looking in Broward and Palm Beach and not Hialeah. The location decision is not driven by where the location is, it's driven by where the funding is. The other poster keeps saying the Hialeah location is 5 miles from Dolphin Stadium. That's not so. Dolphin Stadium is on 199th street and 27th avenue. The Hialeah location is roughly on 150th street and 117th avenue. It's not 5 miles away. It's probably about 12 miles.

The Pirates and Nats are just plain awful and Houston has struggled on the road and is likely to be one of the top WC contenders... a 6-5 homestand wouldn't be a good thing.

every team is going to have holes..and CF is ours..this year we're probably going to try guys (prospects) out there to see how they do I agree with that but the thing with us is that our hole is huge, bigger than just about any other team's hole. I think with a real CF our lineup would be set top to bottom (when Treanor doesn't play).

So far this season we're 9th in OPS (.758) and 8th in runs scored per game (4.76). There's a very strong correlation between a team's OPS ranking and its runs per game ranking... so much so that by the end of each season almost every team's ranking in OPS and runs per game will differ by 2 or less. The issues I have with this team are CF and the split in playing time between Olivo and Treanor so I ran some numbers to see where we could be if our CFs hit like an average NL CF and with a slight variation in the catcher's playing time. The average NL CF (excluding ours) has a .762 OPS. Our CFs have a .647 OPS. If our CFs hit like the NL average CF the impact on our OPS would be +.012. So far this season Olivo has 221 PAs and Treanor has 118 PAs. Olivo's OPS is .810 and Treanor's OPS is .596. If the playing time was revised and Olivo got 40% of Treanor's PAs the impact on our OPS would be +.003. Our OPS with an average CF and the revised catching split would be .773 and that would be 5th in the NL just below the Cardinals (.775) and just above the Braves (.769). The Cardinals and Braves are averaging 5.06 and 4.94 runs per gave, respectively. With a .773 OPS we would be averaging something very close to 5.00 runs per game. What would our record be if we averaged 5 runs per game? I guess the this is a way of saying we need to add a CF and give Olivo more playing time. We should be buyers, not sellers.

Reggie is playing just like I would expect someone with only a handful of at bats above double-A. Centerfield remains the biggest mistake made by the front office during the off-season. Abercrombie and Reed with no backup plan? Reggie still has a shot to become a Preston Wilson type, maybe, but he'd be much better served by getting a hundred or so Carolina ABs and then getting some time in the PCL. But Wilson wasn't that old when he made his debute. He meant a Preston type hitter, not that he is on the same route as Preson Wilson I think Reggie is more likely to become a Darrell Whiffmore.

Statistically, Treanor does seem to handle the staff better though. His CERA is much lower. Treanor's CERA = 4.41 Olivo's CERA = 4.37

I agree with the responses to the Uggla / Hill comment. If anything Presley has had more to do with turning Uggla into an all-star than Hill and this is not a shot at Hill. I think long-term Cabrera is better suited for 1B but the problem is Jacobs cannot play anywhere else and Willingham is also better suited for 1B. With that said I think Cabrera's defense has improved the past few weeks. Early in the season he was atrocious and the fact he was so fat and out of shape probably had much to do with it. He's in better shape now and his defense has improved. I would rather not trade Olsen but other than Johnson I would think he's the most coveted of the rookie pitchers and I guess you have to give up something to get something. I doubt right now any GM is licking his chops about acquiring Vargas or Petit and another couple of poor outings by Anibal and his trade value will plummet.

Although it was a makeable play I don't think he dogged it in not making the play.. I think he dogged it running after the ball after it got by him. I don't think it's too much to ask to hustle all the time more so after you don't make a makeable play. I think that's the most likely reason Olsen was upset and I think it should have been included in the article. That's my opinion.

Good headline but typical Clark Spencer crappy article. It's ridiculous he didn't mention that Cabrera dogged it when he was "running" after the ball.

In the not too distant future Vargas will fade out. He's nothing more than a top tier draft pick that didn't pan out. he's been in the majors for all of 9 months lol You've watched him pitch. Do you actually see good stuff? Do you see potential? I don't. I am against infatutation with mediocre players that ultimately aren't good enough for the show. That's something characteristic of the Orioles, but I'd hate to see it with the Marlins. Jason's dwindling trade value plummeted even farther down yesterday. Petit's trade value has plummeted as well.

I don't know what Olsen said to Cabrera but the lazy way Cabrera ran after the ball is not acceptable and someone should have said something. Just because he's the best player on the team doesn't make it okay to dog it on some plays like the did today.

The new stadium is not only west of PPS, it's also about 5 or 6 miles south of PPS. Also regarding the 60% seaosn ticket holders coming from Broward and Palm Beach, I don't know the source for that number but a couple of years ago it was widely reported that Broward and Miami-Dade were about 40% each and Palm Beach about 12%. Maybe the 60% is an updated number but 40% and 12% doesn't add up to 60%. The fan base breakdown will obviously vary depending on the location of the stadium is. The Heat for example gets 70% of their fans from Miami-Dade and I'm sure the Panthers get about that many from Broward. It's good to read that Miami is out of the question even with the new City Manager as I don't think a small (~400k people) and poor city should be paying for Loria's stadium.

I heard it. Not a very interesting interview thanks to Dan & Stu. Dan's Spanish is incredibly horrible. I know people who have taken 3 months of Berlitz classes who speak better Spanish. It would have probably been better if they had just let Miggy speak English. I didn't hear it but I think that's probably what happened. I've heard Cabrera's English and it's okay. Le Batard doesn't speak Spanish as well as Cabrera speaks English so he probably messed it up by trying to speak Spanish and Cabrera had no clue what Dan was saying.. sort of like when Dan interviewed Roberto Duran. That was so bad it was funny.

reggie is 26 i think , at this point i cant see why sending him down to the minors will help him much he will be 30 before /if he ever learns to hit , give him this year if he cant turn it around release him. I think keeping Reggie in the lineup while he consistently continues to not do anything to help you win games just to see if he turns it around is a mistake. This is not a good team but the NL is not a good league and I wouldn't give up on the season when you're 6 games out of the WC. Plug the holes and see what happens.

Yes, I've had these same concerns for a while. Basicly, it boils down like this: No one really believe Hialeah to be a truly viable option other than Hialeah officials, and homers. The Marlins really don't MLB reeeeeeeeeeeeally doesn't either. Same with San Antonio. What the Marlins were hoping to do was play two markets that figured to be so star-struck by a major league team actually having interest in them (San Antonio, Hialeah) off of each other to either to get a super-sweet-heart deal, or get Miami to come back into the picture with a more desireable location. Like most everything that this ownership group has done, it didn't work out; call it the "Loria touch." Really, Hialeah was just a negotiating ploy to get a better offer from elsewhere, but with San Antonio backing out, it doesn't look like Hialeah's willing to fully cooperate. That, and I still don't see the reasoning behind turning your back on 60% of your season ticket-holder base (Palm Beach and Broward) and moving to a location with substantially less disposable income and a generally less safe environment. Now I realize it's the best and only option on the table, but I keep seeing Miami Arena 2.0 with this, if it happens, which I doubt it will. And, for the record, I'd say relocation chances are at an all-time low given what I've heard from my friend in the MLB office. The location of the stadium will not be determined on the pros and cons of any particular location... the location will be based solely on funding. Loria wants taxpayers to build him a stadium and the stadium will be built where ever he can get government officials to build it for him. As of now out of the 100 or so South Florida governments only Hialeah and Miami-Dade County have even a remote interest in building him a stadium so as of now the stadium would be in Hialeah. I sure hope they put it on the ballot and let the people of Hialeah and Miami-Dade vote on any stadium deal. I don't think the Hialeah location is in any way "turning their back" on the 60% of the fans that come from Broward and Palm Beach. As the other poster wrote that location is north of the midpoint of the 3 counties. It's obvious PPS is well north of the midpoint but I'm a little surprised the Hialeah location is as well. The perfect location would be next to the AAA but I forget why that location was shot down a few years ago. Joe Arriola's replacemant for Miami City Manager was already picked so maybe Loria can bamboozle the new City Manager and Miami will jump back into the picture. The first thing Loria needs to do to get a stadium is to fire Samsom. I do agree the Marlins are not relocationg anywhere and that's because they have nowhere else to go.

When players like Reggie get a lot of playing time where they end up hurting you the most is in that they consistently don't do anything to help you win games and that prevents you from winning games. It's pretty simple.. if no player does anything to help you win a game (ala Reggie) then you're not going to win the game.

Someone asked what was the record in games Reggie starts. I don't know what that is but I looked up the record in games he has played a lot (*) just to see what that was: Reggie plays a lot --- 19-37 .339 winning % Reggie doesn't play a lot --- 17-9 .654 winning % The difference is winning % is obviously not his fault but it sure as heck doesn't help to have a guy out there who can't hit for average or power who is a poor baserunner and who more often than not throws to the wrong base or overthrows the cutoff man and who routinely takes the scenic route out in CF. I guess zero tool guys like Reggie don't help you win games. (*) a lot is considered games in which he had 2 or more plate appearances.

First of all payroll is approximately $20 million and not $14 million. Second there are incentives in several players contracts, Borowski for example has already earned over $300,000 in bonuses. Third the major league payroll is in our case does not represent anywhere near a majority of the team's expenses. We probably will pony up half the salary $$$ in signing bonuses to recent draftees, there's the ridiculously high rent they pay for PPS, there are minor league and front office, scouting and administrative salaries. The list of costs is endless. 15 or 20 Million. What's the difference. It's still a disgrace. But the team certainly isn't a disgrace. To say they've been outperforming their salaries would be the understatement of the year. If it continues like this for most of the season I think it will have a profound effect on future baseball salaries. Of course that's a huge IF, but let's hope for the best. On the cost side, sounds like costs that all teams have...although Loria has cut back on scouting and who knows what else. The only difference is the rent. In a new stadium we would pay I imagine roughly 10 Million a year in rent. How much is this ridiculously high rent we pay Wayne? I've always wondered. Don't get into the revenue end. I understand the difference. And 03, very good early call on Uggla. You were as far as I know the first to spot him as something special. When Forbes presents their baseball Operating Profit numbers they show Revenue, Payroll Expenses and Operating Income. They don't show the total of the other Operating Expenses are but if you take the Revenues and subtract the Operating Income and then subtract the Payroll Expenses you get what the other Operating Expenses are. I did that for either '05 or '06 (I forget) and the Marlins' other Operating Expenses were about $42 million. I also did the calculation for all the other small revenue teams and the average was about $40 or $45 million.

With a low payroll team and the revenue sharing plan from MLB. How much money can Loria can afford on spending next year on FA. Probally around $50M in Loria back pocket. According to Forbes the Marlins made a $3 million profit in '04 and lost about $12 million in '05. With the reduction in payroll, the reduction in attendance and the increase in revenue sharing I think the Forbes estimate for the '06 Marlins will be a profit of around $30 to $35 million. An article in the Sun-Sentinel a few months ago speculated the '06 profit would be $30 million.

Cabrera and Uggla should make it and will make it. Johnson should make it and has a good shot at making it. Olivo should make it but wont make it.