Rabbethan

The Marlins won! You know, after that I realized the rest of the day sucked but the Marlins winning is SO great that I forgot about it.

What a tremendous day it has been.

I almost cried when Corey hit that Home Run. FIRST PLAYOFF WIN IN 17 YEARS. Now let's finish this off!

It's free OTA if you get an antenna, a must for every cord cutter! Though if ABC is on YoutubeTV it should be on there, I guess.

First baseball game on ABC in 25 years.

Second place in a division is seeded over a WC team.

I'm with you. Someone texted me knowing my hate for Ureña but I really wish we cut him last night.

I'm actually a burner account for @Hollyberry

I put my bet in the first week of August, 300/1.

Miggy Ro for sure but let's not forget our stand-in captain Francisco Cervelli who we lost right after Rojas came back. While Miggy Ro was gone, Cervelli was the big veteran presence helping this team along, getting big hits, hitting a .800 OPS from catcher, and steering a lot of young pitchers through their trials by fire. Of the 36 different pitchers we used this year, Cervelli caught the most different pitchers among our catchers, 26. Alfaro has showed just how important a good game caller is and we've really missed Cervelli back there.

We're on the same wavelength, gotta go Sandy Pablo Sixto. Sixto has all the flash right now but Pablo, to me, is the backbone of this rotation and he showed a lot winning that Braves game. He also gave us 9 out of 11 starts of 5 innings, 2 earned runs or less. And would probably be more innings if Donnie didn't pull he any time he had more than 80 pitches. Also Donnie is a shit game manager.

If you sat through Brian Moehler, Rick Vandenhurk, or Wei-Yin Chen starts you're not a bandwagon fan.

I'm right there with you. Cubbies haven't been able to hit for shit lately so that seems like a great matchup for us.

For Cyggy's dad. For Mike's mom. For Jose. And for everyone else who we wish were here tonight. Let's fucking do this.

I know I've been a cameo here from time to time in the last 7 years or so after spending every night on this board for a long time but I fucking love all of you. All the guys who spent thousands of game day posts with me when Loria was fucking this team over and over.

This is the proof that the FO don't expect the team to do anything. You have Miggy Ro calling Sixto unhittable at the same time they're sending Jordan Yamamoto out for a 3rd start.

As my friend miamibaseball used to say, we bad news bears.

FTR, that was NOT a sac bunt and therefor I stand by my run expectancy matrices 😅. @CoastieMikecall it a draw?!

😘

Yay, a response! See, I agree with you that it's situational but disagree as to what the situation is. The situation is that our bullpen is full of has beens and never was...es that have been overperforming. And it's beginning to show. The guy we brought out for the 10th had an ERA of nearly 7 last year; and he's not a young arm, he's 27. If we had a tried and true bullpen we could worry about making them execute, but we don't have guys in our pen who we can expect to execute.

This is sad. Back in the day by now I'd have had 10 people challenge me on run expectancy matrices. And then I'd be able to link to it here. As you can see from 2010-2015 you expected 1.100 runs with 0 outs/runner on 2nd. You expect 0.664 runs 1 out/runner on 3rd. Now this is different from the probability of a single run, which is also listed in that link. You expect a 61.4% chance of at least 1 run with 0 outs/runner on 2nd. You expect a 66% chance of at least 1 run with 1 out/runner on 3rd. So it's all about situation. If you're batting in the top of the inning you need to create a cushion with as many insurance runs as possible. If you're batting in the bottom of the inning and it's still tied, you should bunt the guy to 3rd because you're only looking for 1 run.

Disagree. All run expectancy matrices will show that you expect more runs with 0 outs and a man on 2B than with 1 out and a man on 3B. If you're the away team, you should be trying to score as many runs as possible. If you're the home team and it's tied (or down 1), then you should be bunting because you're only trying to score 1 run.

📦🍔 sighting.

This is the only answer I got so I assume it's correct.

That was great.