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8/11 Post Game Thread


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Just now, CoastieMike said:

Only approach to extra innings regardless of home or away is to bunt that guy over to 3rd. Get the run, force the pressure on the opponent. 

Disagree. All run expectancy matrices will show that you expect more runs with 0 outs and a man on 2B than with 1 out and a man on 3B.

If you're the away team, you should be trying to score as many runs as possible. If you're the home team and it's tied (or down 1), then you should be bunting because you're only trying to score 1 run.

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This is sad. Back in the day by now I'd have had 10 people challenge me on run expectancy matrices. And then I'd be able to link to it here.

As you can see from 2010-2015 you expected 1.100 runs with 0 outs/runner on 2nd. You expect 0.664 runs 1 out/runner on 3rd.

Now this is different from the probability of a single run, which is also listed in that link. You expect a 61.4% chance of at least 1 run with 0 outs/runner on 2nd. You expect a 66% chance of at least 1 run with 1 out/runner on 3rd.

So it's all about situation. If you're batting in the top of the inning you need to create a cushion with as many insurance runs as possible. If you're batting in the bottom of the inning and it's still tied, you should bunt the guy to 3rd because you're only looking for 1 run.

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4 minutes ago, Rabbethan said:

This is sad. Back in the day by now I'd have had 10 people challenge me on run expectancy matrices. And then I'd be able to link to it here.

As you can see from 2010-2015 you expected 1.100 runs with 0 outs/runner on 2nd. You expect 0.664 runs 1 out/runner on 3rd.

Now this is different from the probability of a single run, which is also listed in that link. You expect a 61.4% chance of at least 1 run with 0 outs/runner on 2nd. You expect a 66% chance of at least 1 run with 1 out/runner on 3rd.

So it's all about situation. If you're batting in the top of the inning you need to create a cushion with as many insurance runs as possible. If you're batting in the bottom of the inning and it's still tied, you should bunt the guy to 3rd because you're only looking for 1 run.

I was about to respond lol.

But yes its all situational. Depending on the lineup, matchup etc. If you had a team like LAD, SD, etc I would employ the score as many runs as possible.

But for a team like the Marlins who have 2 (Aguilar, BA, maybe Cervi) guys producing, that weren't going to be up anytime, that guy on 2nd NEEDS to be on the 3rd. I would take my chances with a man on 3rd and 1 out rather than run into the situation of 2nd and 1 out if that guy can't get the job done. That man doesn't score the game is as good as over.

So that run scores, now that applies pressure if the other team to execute the bunt, etc. Also had the young part of the Blue Jays lineup batting (Jensen, Biggio, Bichette) MAKE THEM EXECUTE, MAKE THEM BEAT YOU. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastieMike said:

I was about to respond lol.

But yes its all situational. Depending on the lineup, matchup etc. If you had a team like LAD, SD, etc I would employ the score as many runs as possible.

But for a team like the Marlins who have 2 (Aguilar, BA, maybe Cervi) guys producing, that weren't going to be up anytime, that guy on 2nd NEEDS to be on the 3rd. I would take my chances with a man on 3rd and 1 out rather than run into the situation of 2nd and 1 out if that guy can't get the job done. That man doesn't score the game is as good as over.

So that run scores, now that applies pressure if the other team to execute the bunt, etc. Also had the young part of the Blue Jays lineup batting (Jensen, Biggio, Bichette) MAKE THEM EXECUTE, MAKE THEM BEAT YOU. 

Yay, a response!

See, I agree with you that it's situational but disagree as to what the situation is.

The situation is that our bullpen is full of has beens and never was...es that have been overperforming. And it's beginning to show. The guy we brought out for the 10th had an ERA of nearly 7 last year; and he's not a young arm, he's 27. If we had a tried and true bullpen we could worry about making them execute, but we don't have guys in our pen who we can expect to execute.

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54 minutes ago, SilverBullet said:

The 7-1 start allows a chance to absorb some losses but if we don't get back in the win column very soon it will all be for naught. 

Many Marlins haters would waiting for us to back to the "OLD MARLINS ", so it's just up to this team to show everybody or not. 

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Even without the COVID issue and we have all the core players in the team, the realistic expectation of this season would be finished the season with the .500 record and made it to the playoffs if some players played better than expected, what we need now was to expect the COVID players back ASAP.

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8 hours ago, Rabbethan said:

Yay, a response!

See, I agree with you that it's situational but disagree as to what the situation is.

The situation is that our bullpen is full of has beens and never was...es that have been overperforming. And it's beginning to show. The guy we brought out for the 10th had an ERA of nearly 7 last year; and he's not a young arm, he's 27. If we had a tried and true bullpen we could worry about making them execute, but we don't have guys in our pen who we can expect to execute.

Also not that say that it's irrelevant, but the matrix you posted I would say is not 100% accurate to the extra innings situation or even the old one. It only computes through 8 innings. Thats a huge chunk of info/stats missing for the last inning plus.

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Get the 1, bring in Kintzler, make them do it vs. go for extra runs and a big inning.

I'm typically inclined to go with the run expectancy side, but we have so many run producers out and were at the bottom of the order that I'm not sure our run expectancy is higher in that situation.

I'm also not inclined to run the math.

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10 hours ago, Rabbethan said:

This is sad. Back in the day by now I'd have had 10 people challenge me on run expectancy matrices. And then I'd be able to link to it here.

As you can see from 2010-2015 you expected 1.100 runs with 0 outs/runner on 2nd. You expect 0.664 runs 1 out/runner on 3rd.

Now this is different from the probability of a single run, which is also listed in that link. You expect a 61.4% chance of at least 1 run with 0 outs/runner on 2nd. You expect a 66% chance of at least 1 run with 1 out/runner on 3rd.

So it's all about situation. If you're batting in the top of the inning you need to create a cushion with as many insurance runs as possible. If you're batting in the bottom of the inning and it's still tied, you should bunt the guy to 3rd because you're only looking for 1 run.

I just didn't want to talk to you.    :)

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Looked at minor league stats since the extra innings started in 2018 and it's pretty much split. Again I think it depends on who's up, who's hot, the match up. You have to know your team. Its a crap shoot either way, comes down to who can execute. 

When the visiting team lead off with a bunt, win % was 47

when visiting team did not lead off with bunt, win % was 50.1

 

source https://www.mlb.com/news/how-teams-should-strategize-extra-innings-rule-in-mlb-in-2020

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10 hours ago, Rabbethan said:

Yay, a response!

See, I agree with you that it's situational but disagree as to what the situation is.

The situation is that our bullpen is full of has beens and never was...es that have been overperforming. And it's beginning to show. The guy we brought out for the 10th had an ERA of nearly 7 last year; and he's not a young arm, he's 27. If we had a tried and true bullpen we could worry about making them execute, but we don't have guys in our pen who we can expect to execute.

Exactly. I said it A few days ago, this iteration is not a “good” team”. If they can somehow play .500 baseball till the real bullpen and starters come back then we’ll be ok. But definitely, that orioles series was 100% luck and over-performance and it’s starting to prove itself.

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