October 30, 200421 yr I'm going to go ahead and start trashing right now, and go ahead and bash me, but here's why: AT THE VERY F'ING LEAST, call 'Mando. Speak to him, see what he wants. If there's one thing that can be said about him, it's that he's very comfortable here. I don't know, but he seems like the kind of guy who would definitely take a "home town discount." Additionally, look at the Astros this year, and it'll tell you all you need to know about why letting 'Mando walk is a bad idea. Dotel was absolutely filthy as a set-up man, but he couldn't close...the Astros are just lucky they have someone the quality of Lidge around...we don't (don't you dare say Spooneybarger, he's comming off TJ surgery, it's just not fair to him). I've said it a million times before...Pavano is just incredibly lucky that his stats over inflate his value. I'd love to have him back, that's not my point, but I don't see him continually performing at this level for the next three years. Will he always be a serviceable #3 guy? Absolutely, but he will not be worth the $8 million dollars a season it will cost to keep him, nor will his opportunity cost of Armando Benitez be worth it. There's a plethora of #3 quality starters available on the FA market, there are just about no closers of the quality of Armando available (and before you say that this was 'Mando's only good season, look up his stats from as far back as '98, he was always one of the best in the game). IMO, Benitez is much much much more important for the short term success of this team than Pavano. We can always keep Benitez and try to get Milton, Milwood, Lowe, Ortiz, Clement, etc. to be our #3...remember, that's all we're talking about losing, our #3, not our #1 (AJ) or our #2 (Beckett).
October 30, 200421 yr I'm going to go ahead and start trashing right now, and go ahead and bash me, but here's why: AT THE VERY F'ING LEAST, call 'Mando. Speak to him, see what he wants. If there's one thing that can be said about him, it's that he's very comfortable here. I don't know, but he seems like the kind of guy who would definitely take a "home town discount." Additionally, look at the Astros this year, and it'll tell you all you need to know about why letting 'Mando walk is a bad idea. Dotel was absolutely filthy as a set-up man, but he couldn't close...the Astros are just lucky they have someone the quality of Lidge around...we don't (don't you dare say Spooneybarger, he's comming off TJ surgery, it's just not fair to him). I've said it a million times before...Pavano is just incredibly lucky that his stats over inflate his value. I'd love to have him back, that's not my point, but I don't see him continually performing at this level for the next three years. Will he always be a serviceable #3 guy? Absolutely, but he will not be worth the $8 million dollars a season it will cost to keep him, nor will his opportunity cost of Armando Benitez be worth it. There's a plethora of #3 quality starters available on the FA market, there are just about no closers of the quality of Armando available (and before you say that this was 'Mando's only good season, look up his stats from as far back as '98, he was always one of the best in the game). IMO, Benitez is much much much more important for the short term success of this team than Pavano. We can always keep Benitez and try to get Milton, Milwood, Lowe, Ortiz, Clement, etc. to be our #3...remember, that's all we're talking about losing, our #3, not our #1 (AJ) or our #2 (Beckett). 604570[/snapback] I'd object to letting Benitez go if that meant dishing out 8 million for Pavs. Calling Pavs a number 3 starter though isn't fair at all, if you want to go on talent alone perhaps he's our number 3, but unless Beckett and Burnett can stay healthy he is absolutely without doubt our number 1. As far as replacing Benitez, it's almost a sure thing that Benitez won't even post the same stats he did this season, to expect the same contribution would be foolish. Overpaying for a closer is not something we can do, it's not a luxury we can afford. Starters have to worry about pacing themselves and their job as a result is much more difficult than that of a closer that is why so many former starters have found success as closers. "I've said it a million times before...Pavano is just incredibly lucky that his stats over inflate his value. " You don't think Benitez's stats help inflate his value? I'd love AB back at 4 - 4.5 million but he's going to fetch 6 - 7 million probably. I do agree that they should atleast have made an effort, called him to see if he would take a paycut to remain with the Marlins. I don't see why you'd think he would though, he took a one year deal just like Pudge because last season his value wasn't all that high. He decided to sign a one year deal with the hopes that if he had a good season he could secure a hefty long term deal... Ideally I'd like to have Clement for 5 million and with leftover money sign Drew or Delgado or some big bat. I'd much rather get two quality bullpen arms for 2/3 the cost of keeping Benitez... I don't think people understand how much this lack of bullpen depth hurt us this season. 2 good bullpen arms >>>> Benitez
October 30, 200421 yr keep mando and give me lowe he'd thrive with our defense behind him 604571[/snapback] Hell no, He's not nearly as good as Pavano and he is going to command around the same...
October 30, 200421 yr we wont be able to afford him and IMO, once we were to give him $5mil+ he would become just "another" closer this year was a fluke
October 30, 200421 yr You guys are driving me completely crazy :o Show me where Carl said the amount of money he wants PLEASE. Not someone putting words into his mouth, I mean him saying "I want 10 million". PLEASE, PLEASE do that and I will shut up but before then stop assuming what he wants and where he'll go!
October 30, 200421 yr Changing from setup to closer isnt very difficult. But hey if Mota does struggle in the closer's spot we can always move him back and have the best setup man in baseball and then move Spoony into the closer's spot. Spoony's stuff is incredible and he would be a great closer if he can fully recover from Tommy John surgery.
October 30, 200421 yr We should also remember that we have some kid named Tim Spooneybarger coming back next year right? In addition, Fox should be coming back. Our pen will be fine minus Benitez. Yeah it sucks losing him but I say give Mota a chance and if slips, let someone else try. Lets not forget what happend to the Astros when they gave Liidge a chance to replace Dotel.
October 30, 200421 yr Look, my problem with Benitez leaving isn't that Mota can't close. His stuff is filth, once he gets used to it (I think we might see a rocky beginning) he'll be excellent. However, who fills Mota's spot? It's easier, though more expensive, to have a solid closer. You know how hard it is to find someone as studly as Mota to be able to pitch that much in one season? There are two in this league: KRod and Mota. Spooney can't take Mota's place, because his arm isn't ready. You basically have a stud closer who needs to adjust, a stud setup man who might not be at his best yet, and alot of garbage. That's a winning pen!
October 30, 200421 yr We should also remember that we have some kid named Tim Spooneybarger coming back next year right? In addition, Fox should be coming back. Our pen will be fine minus Benitez. Yeah it sucks losing him but I say give Mota a chance and if slips, let someone else try. Lets not forget what happend to the Astros when they gave Liidge a chance to replace Dotel. 604608[/snapback] Spooney is coming of TJ though, and I'll eat an entire horse if Fox pitches half the season next year, that's assuming he'll step on the field at all.
October 30, 200421 yr You guys are driving me completely crazy :o Show me where Carl said the amount of money he wants PLEASE. Not someone putting words into his mouth, I mean him saying "I want 10 million". PLEASE, PLEASE do that and I will shut up but before then stop assuming what he wants and where he'll go! 604599[/snapback] He'll want at least $7 million a year and he isn't worth it. They guy was going up against teams 3/4 starters all year. He'd be our #3 pitcher behind AJ/Beckett next year. Let him go and sign Paul Wilson/Al Leiter for almost the same money we'd sign Pavano/Valdez for. We'd be much better off without Pavano at the price he wants. Let the Sox overpay for him.
October 30, 200421 yr We should also remember that we have some kid named Tim Spooneybarger coming back next year right? In addition, Fox should be coming back. Our pen will be fine minus Benitez. Yeah it sucks losing him but I say give Mota a chance and if slips, let someone else try. Lets not forget what happend to the Astros when they gave Liidge a chance to replace Dotel. 604608[/snapback] Spooney is coming of TJ though, and I'll eat an entire horse if Fox pitches half the season next year, that's assuming he'll step on the field at all. 604611[/snapback] Yeah but TJ surgery is usually a length of 12-15 months right? Even if we assume Spooney has come off the max length, he still has had a few months of extra recovery time if my math is right. Plus doesnt it seem like medical science has improved in how effectivley people come off TJS? I mean Burnett came back almost immediatley and did pretty well. Smoltz's first season of TJS was a very good 59 IP with a low 3 ERA. As far as Fox goes, can anyone figure out whats wrong with him?
October 30, 200421 yr AJ was an aberration, he's just a freak. TJ recovery is 12-15 until you play, but you usually have another half a season to a season of grace period before you return to form. Playing and playing to your level are two different things. Look at how long it took Kerry Wood to recover. The other thing also is we are judging this by AJ's return. AJ is a starter, his arm has stress once every 5 days and the other days he throws light to prepare. Being a reliever is brutal, especially the fireman Spooney would have to be without Mota helping him in that role. He'd be up, down, up, down, depending on the other team's rally/lack thereof, and sometimes pitching 3 and 4 days in a row. That's torture on an arm, and it'll take Spooney longer than it takes a starter to get back just because of the added stress of relief.
October 31, 200421 yr I'm going to go ahead and start trashing right now, and go ahead and bash me, but here's why: Additionally, look at the Astros this year, and it'll tell you all you need to know about why letting 'Mando walk is a bad idea. Dotel was absolutely filthy as a set-up man, but he couldn't close...the Astros are just lucky they have someone the quality of Lidge around...we don't (don't you dare say Spooneybarger, he's comming off TJ surgery, it's just not fair to him). 604570[/snapback] Dotel couldnt close? ... yeah it was a rough start, but after he got the hang of it he was money for the A's man ... please
October 31, 200421 yr benitez will bust if he goes elsewhere.he was comfortable here and he will realize it and ask to stay here for less.
October 31, 200421 yr First off, Fox is gone. I'd eat the other half of the horse if he pitches again. Mando is awesome, althought who knows if he can dominate wearing other colors. He seems to thrive in this city. I also think at very least you can try to negotiate. Even if they can't give him what he wants, let them know that they'd love to have him back. I think a bit part of why he hasn't gotten a call is because Loria still hasn't given Beinfest a budget. All the articles you read state that Beinfest is working with one hand tied behind his back because he doesn't have a budget yet. Lowell was the priority and now thats done. If there is room for a good faith offer for Mando I'm sure they'd try to make it. Spooney has a lot of promise but we still have to see if he can come back after a lot of rehab. Hopefully we will have a budget soon, because you must think Mando would like to stay. He is very close with Seabass and Castillo. But if somebody throws him $2million more a season, well money talks and everything else walks. Best of luck to him, he's deserved it. We probably can't match a high offer, and with his injuries and questionable elbow, I don't think we should.
October 31, 200421 yr Pavano was the biggest priority in my book. I don't want to go into next season with a rotation of 2 talented but injury-prone starters (AJ and Josh) and a so-so Dontrelle Willis. Pavano's been a horse the past 2 seasons. We need that back. I hate to see Mando go, but Mota will have his shot. If he can't hack it, the front office will go find someone. They've demonstrated it in the past.
October 31, 200421 yr Mota ERA by month, 2003/2004 April: 1.93/2.08 May: 1.37/1.83 June: 2.77/2.12 July: 1.80/2.55 August: 0.44/1.65 September: 4.00/6.35 ***Both years he averaged about 100 IP.. Thats a ridiculous amount! and those IP would be reduced by about 40 by becoming a closer. The guy is unhittable the first 5 months of the season and stunk it up the last month of the season.. This has to be directly related to being overworked. I think he is made for a closer and the lighter work load. I would also rather have Armando but Mota will be fine, IMO.
October 31, 200421 yr Mota ERA by month, 2003/2004 April: 1.93/2.08 May: 1.37/1.83 June: 2.77/2.12 July: 1.80/2.55 August: 0.44/1.65 September: 4.00/6.35 ***Both years he averaged about 100 IP.. Thats a ridiculous amount! and those IP would be reduced by about 40 by becoming a closer. The guy is unhittable the first 5 months of the season and stunk it up the last month of the season.. This has to be directly related to being overworked. I think he is made for a closer and the lighter work load. I would also rather have Armando but Mota will be fine, IMO. 604670[/snapback] My point exactly :thumbup
October 31, 200421 yr and the fact that spooney is coming back next season gives us a strong setup man for mota should he be the closer. if mota cant handle it give the job to spooney at let mota remain as the setup man.
October 31, 200421 yr I am absolutely amazed how sure some here are that Spooney will be a dominant pitcher in 2005. Not that I wouldn't like to see it but the guy hasn't thrown a ball in organized ball in well over a year and until he shows he can pitch, counting on him to perform up to the lofty standards people here expect is, to me, folly. Sure AJ came back but every guy is different. I don't think we'll know until sometime towards the end of spring training at the earliest what we can expect from the guy.
October 31, 200421 yr We should also remember that we have some kid named Tim Spooneybarger coming back next year right? In addition, Fox should be coming back. Our pen will be fine minus Benitez. Yeah it sucks losing him but I say give Mota a chance and if slips, let someone else try. Lets not forget what happend to the Astros when they gave Liidge a chance to replace Dotel. 604608[/snapback] Spooney is coming of TJ though, and I'll eat an entire horse if Fox pitches half the season next year, that's assuming he'll step on the field at all. 604611[/snapback] Yeah but TJ surgery is usually a length of 12-15 months right? Even if we assume Spooney has come off the max length, he still has had a few months of extra recovery time if my math is right. Plus doesnt it seem like medical science has improved in how effectivley people come off TJS? I mean Burnett came back almost immediatley and did pretty well. Smoltz's first season of TJS was a very good 59 IP with a low 3 ERA. As far as Fox goes, can anyone figure out whats wrong with him? 604623[/snapback] AJ still struggled over 15 months after his surgery, it's not fair at all to expect Spooney to be anything close to 100%, especially when you're a reliever, starters can always afford a rocky inning, relievers can't have a rocky inning otherwise it's a loss for the team. Fox isn't even under contract for next year so I assume we can't even bring him into this conversation, not to mention, his arm still hasn't healed from an injury in MAY. And, I agree with Juanky, why break up what could be a formidable pen (Seanez to Mota to Benitez or Spooney to Mota to Benitez) for a risk that likely won't work. Our farm system is pretty barren at the upper level, and if the Mota as a closer experiment backfires, we'd have to get a closer in-season at a hefty price...look what we had to give up for Urbina in 2003.
October 31, 200421 yr keep mando and give me lowe he'd thrive with our defense behind him 604571[/snapback] Hell no, He's not nearly as good as Pavano and he is going to command around the same... 604584[/snapback] he's not nearly as good as pavano cuz he's a dominant ground ball pitcher and his defense is the worst in the MLB, and he pitches in fenway and to say he's getting as much as pavano is foolish
October 31, 200421 yr I am absolutely amazed how sure some here are that Spooney will be a dominant pitcher in 2005. Not that I wouldn't like to see it but the guy hasn't thrown a ball in organized ball in well over a year and until he shows he can pitch, counting on him to perform up to the lofty standards people here expect is, to me, folly. Sure AJ came back but every guy is different. I don't think we'll know until sometime towards the end of spring training at the earliest what we can expect from the guy. 604707[/snapback] Keep in mind that Spooney's gonna have more time than AJ to come back though, it's already been about 15 months since he had the surgery. I'm not saying that he's gonna come back lights out, I'm just saying that he has plenty of time to get his arm in game shape.
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