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Why not trade Burnett now?

Published July 30, 2003

 

A.J. Burnett has been in the Marlins' clubhouse a few times in recent weeks, even though his return from reconstructive elbow surgery is still at least nine months away.

 

Watching Burnett interact with teammates, wear his uniform and sit in the dugout gave me two distinct thoughts.

 

One was what might have been. Where would this already compelling Marlins season be had Burnett not blown out his elbow back in April?

 

Here's the other thought, one rooted in cold, hard reality: Why not trade him?

 

I'm not talking about December, when the non-tender date and his projected $2.5 million salary for next season could force the Marlins to cut him loose or deal him to a team better able to afford the long rehab wait.

 

I'm talking about now. Before Thursday's 4 p.m. non-waiver trading deadline. When his vast potential and the probability he'll come back next May throwing harder than ever could bring a much-needed piece for the stretch drive.

 

But there's a first time for everything, and how many injured players can tantalize like the Marlins' fallen ace? One major league source estimates Burnett, even three months into his rehab, could still bring "30 to 40 cents on the dollar" on the trade market.

 

That means instead of the boatload of young, cheap players he might bring when healthy, he still could net the Marlins, say, another bullpen arm or two from a rebuilding team. Or perhaps he alone could bring a veteran bat for left field such as J.D. Drew, Rondell White or Jeff Conine.

 

The fact Burnett, 26, is still due about $865,000 this season only helps balance the financial transaction, a huge consideration in today's payroll-driven baseball economy.

 

This scenario works, mind you, only if the Marlins already know they won't be able to take Burnett into next season. Under normal circumstances, they might be able to non-tender him and re-sign him to a low-base deal filled with performance incentives.

 

Alas, the firing of pitching coach Brad Arnsberg and manager Jeff Torborg, both Burnett favorites, put a strain on relations between the Marlins and the Burnett camp. So did Burnett's allegations that management knew something was amiss with his elbow months before he broke down in August 2002.

 

Based on conversations with several rival club officials, most baseball people believe Burnett has thrown his last pitch in a Marlins uniform. If that's the case, the Marlins might as well try to turn him into something of value while they still can.

 

Deal him to the Colorado Rockies for deposed closer Jose Jimenez and cash. Or how about to the Montreal Expos for lefty specialist Joey Eischen and a prospect? Or the Cincinnati Reds, along with exiled reliever Vladimir Nunez, for closer Scott Williamson? The fading Anaheim Angels might be willing to part with wacky-but-effective Ben Weber under the right circumstances. Maybe the chance to get a once and future No. 1 starter like Burnett would be that circumstance.

 

"We're forced to be creative in this industry," said one longtime baseball man. "I totally agree with your idea. I think it makes sense, particularly when you look at the track record of Tommy John guys. They all come back at or near where they were."

 

Putting Burnett in a deal instead of two or three more premium prospects also would keep the Marlins from further gutting a once-overflowing farm system. In the past year, they have traded off a half-dozen prospects that either currently or previously ranked in their top 10.

 

Not everyone polled was ready to grant me Next Branch Rickey status. Some thought the Marlins would have a hard time getting any club to bite on Burnett during the season.

 

"Any GM that does that immediately goes on the chopping block if that guy [burnett]doesn't pan out," said one NL club official.

 

Said one American League executive: "They say the recovery percentage from Tommy John surgery is very high, almost like 90 percent. But what if [burnett] is that guy on the low percentage? That's why you can't give up a lot for an injured player."

 

Undeterred, I kept asking, and a major league scout from a small-market team liked the idea almost as much I did.

 

"He's the perfect piece," the scout said. "We'd probably take him if we could. Sure, it would leave some people scratching their heads if the Marlins dealt him, but if you're going to go for it, you go for it now. You can't just keep rebuilding."

 

Amen to that.

 

I disagree. Unless like he said, the FO has no plans on keeping him around. If he comes back close to what he was last year, he's better than Penny and certainly better than Pavano. Imagine him coming back around the break next season & bolstering a staff of Beckett, Redman, Willis, and Penny? It obviously depends on what they can afford, but I think he's too talented (even coming off Tommy John) to deal for an "extra" bullpen arm. How much difference is another pen arm going to make at this point? We've got 3 or 4 guys already doing the job, and Spoony coming back soon. The "lefty" stuff is overrated.

I kind of see Berardino's point and agree with him to an extent. It's going to be expensive to way for him while he rehabs and i don't know if this team can afford it. if trading him can help us get over the top, why not?

No thanks.

AJ Stays a Marlin!

if they can resign him, i think they will, if we resign redman, penny, beckett (willis stays obviously), then i dont mind loosing AJ, i would love for him to come back and stay and be nasty, but if we HAVE to loose him, then mike has a point (ugh, i cant believe i said that), i doubt anyone would trade for him, so that could be a blessing in disguise, if nobody wants him, we can resign him cheap with lots of incentives, and hopefully he would come back to his old form, that'd be nice

I think Mike is looking from the financial side of things for next season, but like the scouts said those who come back from TJ surgery come back at or near where they were...it'd be like trading for a #1 starter for nothing come next mid-season.

no thanks berardino.

Berardino must troll these boards. I already suggested this on another thread (or was it on the MLB board?) that we could trade Burnett for a big bat. Berardino thinks big, but thinks small too. He says trade Burnett - but trade him for a reliever? Hello? Teams would KILL to have Burnett in their rotation - so what if they have to wait a year or more. The teams that are sellers need pitching AND they are not going to win now. We could easily, or should easily, deal Burnett for Dunn, or some other bat from a team not quite ready for contention. Heck, Aubry Huff would even interest me, and dont tell me the D Rays dont need pitching more than hitting. The Rangers would probably give us whomever we want...

 

IT is a good idea, but as far as flexibility for next year is concerned, I would rather deal Penny and wait on Burnett. We could get just as much, if not more, for Penny and Burnett is a better pitcher. I think we sit on Burnett, and this whole FO vs. Burnett thing is being blown out of proportion. I bet his sour attitude has changed a lot considering where this team is now. Winning heals everything...and Burnett wants to be here I am sure.

With the likely departure of Castillo and maybe Lee as well, there should be plenty of money to hang onto Burnett. If the offense takes a step back next year, they'll at least have strong pitching.

Exactly. I would rather us keep Burnett and Lowell than Lee and Castillo. That is obvious, but the other thing we have to look at is we more than likely will loose Pudge (and keep Castro). That is more money to be freed up (well, sort of...). But, what do we do about Urbina? He seems like he likes it here, and I like him in our pen. Loop and UU could be a deadly combo for years. WE have got a lot of flexibility and options, something you have to credit Beinfest and his boys with. If we get Drew, we could even deal Encarnacion...

ugh, dealing Enc?

 

is this because is usually plays 150+ games?

Iwon't wan't to trade encarnacion and anyway's encarnacion is not gonna be traded im 100% sure.

keep 'em both if it came to that. Move Cabs to first.

I'd like to see Burnett hang around. Kerry Wood recovered from his Tommy John surgry just fine. Having a rotation of Redman, Beckett, Penny, Willis, and Burnett is too good to pass up. I say don't mess with the current Marlins unless your going to replace Almanza( notice he hasn't pitched lately and we've been winning).

I can see why Berardino would suggest this but we have to keep AJ. Can you imagine what our rotation would be with AJ in it. It would easily be the best in the national league and probably only behind Oakland in the majors. We're going to have to give up some offense next year and we all know it, but if we are able to keep our great pitching we will still be a playoff contending team.

Based on conversations with several rival club officials, most baseball people believe Burnett has thrown his last pitch in a Marlins uniform.

 

Where does he get this shiit from? Are his "club officials" the bat boys and beer vendors? Bernadino is a joke, not just for suggesting the Burnett deal (you always have to weigh you options w/everybody) but for laying crap like this out on the table. I bet theres been absolutely no talks at all about moving Burnett in the FO. Theres too much uncertainty there. Will he come back and dominate or will he come back at all? I think the FO is betting on a Kerry Wood like comback and there going to wait for it. Its not like AJ is sucking 6.5 mil sitting on the bench. Hell, he's only due 865K this year and 2.5m next year. Thats a steal if he comes back even close to form, which I think he'll be even better.

 

:angry

ugh, dealing Enc?

 

is this because is usually plays 150+ games?

I dont know about you, but I am all for quality vs. quantity. Drew has already put up similar numbers to Encarnacion, if not better, and has only had 203 ABs. I like En a lot, I do. But when push comes to shove, and we need to deal players to keep certain core players, we may have to deal En and having Drew would make that a good thing. Heck, we may even have to deal Drew and keep En, but either way, we are going to lose some guys off this team next year and getting Drew only augments our current talent pool. We dont have anybody with Drew's talent. The only one that comes close is Cabrera, and he will get there but it is going to take time. You guys are all intoxicated right now, and that is good. But anytime you have the chance to get Drew for guys like Wayne, Neal, Grilli or even Levinski - you have to do it.

 

And in Florida, I bet you Drew plays in 150+ games consistently. La Russa oversubs this guy and for some reason doesnt let him play enough. This is a good risk...and frankly, if the Marlins make this happen they will have pulled off one of the most unbelievable make-overs any team in HISTORY has undergone. And they only did it in one season... :whistle

until DL Drew plays in 150 games, i would never take him over Enc

 

health over hurt

I know he's been on the DL a lot but I forget what he was on for. Can anybody refresh me on Drews injuries, anything chronic?

Ramp, health over hurt gets you a mediocre ballclub. If you applied that philosophy at the beginning of the season, you wouldnt have Pudge on this team right now. And dont say Castro would have played and we wouldnt miss a beat. That could go either way. But Pudge's .429 AVG with RISP is one of the main reasons for this surge AND could be another reason why Lowell is having a good season.

I'd like to see Burnett hang around. Kerry Wood recovered from his Tommy John surgry just fine. Having a rotation of Redman, Beckett, Penny, Willis, and Burnett is too good to pass up.

Exactly. And you can have that whole stud rotation for about 10 million.

 

Even better, sign Redman and Beckett to longer deals...

Wait until AJ comes back to see how he looks.

Why do I get the feeling that Berardino would be the first to complain if the Marlins traded Burnett?

 

Yeah, trade the staff ace to the Expos for a middle reliever. That's a good deal. I'd rather wait til he's healthy and deal him for a player that can make an impact.

I know he's been on the DL a lot but I forget what he was on for. Can anybody refresh me on Drews injuries, anything chronic?

Drew suffered the same type of knee injury that eneded McGwire's career. The Cards were optomistic though becuase Drew is much younger than McGwire was.

And in Florida, I bet you Drew plays in 150+ games consistently. La Russa oversubs this guy and for some reason doesnt let him play enough. This is a good risk...and frankly, if the Marlins make this happen they will have pulled off one of the most unbelievable make-overs any team in HISTORY has undergone. And they only did it in one season...

Drew? 150 games? :lol :lol In a span of 3 years maybe.

Drew? 150 games? :lol :lol In a span of 3 years maybe.

i dont think in 3 years maybe in span of 4-5 years