We'll get a lot of rain, probably 3-6 inches since thats the wet side. And I am going to lean to a more northerly path right now, taking it through the upper keys as a mid category 1. And Das, Florida is under the gun first, Texas is second. :mischief

From the 8PM Advisory:

-Sustained winds increased to 50 mph

-additional strengthening is forecast and Rita could be a hurricane by late Monday

-motion is toward the northwest (a change from west) at 9, but a motion between west and west-northwest is expected later on

-"A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME

SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO

FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. THE WATCH

AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND

POSSIBLY A HURRICANE WATCH LATER TONIGHT."

No way we have school Tuesday.

Dade has always said they don't want kids waiting for the bus when tropical storm conditions are likely.

i just finished checking dadeschools.net and it says dade school are open tommorow.

As of 11PM:

Dade and Broward are now under a HURRICANE WATCH and a TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

per 11pm the cone has shifted north

I hope that northward turn doesn't happen before the projection, because any deviation might have a strong system heading toward no.

 

 

Edit: check that out. post number 2500 for me :cool

school on tuesday should be an interesting proposition

Wow, another storm where we get just a little bit of wind and a little bit of rain out of this minor inconvenience.

I am so sick of going to Publix.

 

 

Damn global warming...........

looks like a jog way south

looks like a jog way south

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What does that mean.

Actually, the forecast path has been moving northward throughout the day and the NHC is discussing the possibility that it may go even further north with the next model runs. This is from the 11PM discussion:

"THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09. RITA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN MOVING OR PROPAGATING NORTHWESTWARD THE PAST 6 TO 9 HOURS. THIS MOTION MAY BE DUE TO THE CENTER REFORMING CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...OR ACTUAL MOVEMENT TOWARD A WEAKER BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ALONG 75W LONGITUDE. ...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM A HIGH CENTER OVER LOUISIANA WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD AND TURN RITA WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THE SAME MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE HEIGHTS WILL NOT INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND...IN FACT...HEIGHTS FROM 700 MB TO 400 MB HAVE NOT INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT THE WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED. THIS ALL SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS INDICATED IN THE MODEL FIELDS. AS SUCH...THERE MAY A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE AND STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST...RITA SHOULD GRADUALLY EVENTUALLY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION. THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT HAS REQUIRED THE PREVIOUS WATCHES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TO BE UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS."

The most reliable models are the most southern ones. And obviously the BAMM is the most sadistic.

The most reliable models are the most southern ones. And obviously the BAMM is the most sadistic.

953400[/snapback]

thats what i was saying, because the storm took that jg back south after the 11PM

BAMM and A98E show NO getting hit.

 

I think it'll keep moving westward until it's level with no and then gradually turn nw toward Tejas.

These are all the latest model runs on one plot.

what are the chances that this is going to be bad since i dont understand all this weather crap?

what are the chances that this is going to be bad since i dont understand all this weather crap?

953481[/snapback]

Bad for Dade county? It won't be as bad as when Katrina passed through. Unlike Katrina this storm won't make landfall in Fl it seems, unless it makes landfall somewhere along the Keys and perhaps SW Fl. There will be some rain (no major flooding) and gale force wind, 50/50 chance schools get cancelled, depends how close it gets. But yeah, whatever you felt from Katrina will be more than what you will get from this imo.

No school for Broward on Tuesday, according to local10.

 

Edit: No school for Dade tomorrow, according to Dadeschools.net

If this thing hits College Station Im going to be livid...

No school for Broward on Tuesday, according to local10.

 

Edit: No school for Dade tomorrow, according to Dadeschools.net

953560[/snapback]

 

 

You beat me to it.

Well, basically none of the models show it making landfall here.

 

At this point, all you can do is hope it hits TX, though...(sorry Texas)...cause I'm sure a hurricane is the last thing the other Gulf states need.

If this thing hits College Station Im going to be livid...

953565[/snapback]

you must be more than 100 miles inland.

 

if it hits you, it won't do jack AND you'll get to miss school.

 

i'd so take that.

FIU cancelled classes for the rest of the day and for tomorrow.