Title says it all... I see many people predicting that Miguel will end up being a 40-45 HR guy, but I'm not so sure about that. I think he's more of a great hitter, not a slugger. He may pop 45 one or two years in his career, but I don't think that is going to be his average. I picture a prototypical Miguel year over the next decade to look something like this...

 

.335 AVG, 38-40 HR, 120-140 RBI, .380-.390 OBP

 

Certainly good enough for an MVP or two.

 

What does everybody else think?

I agree with those numbers. They're about right.

 

I will say this... if averaging 38-40 HR and 120-140 RBI per year doesn't make you a slugger, what does? :mischief2

 

Also, if he averages those numbers, I would say he'd win more like 3-4 MVP's.

He needs to work on his "Late & Close" production.

 

Last post I saw had him under .200 RISP L&C.

He needs to work on his "Late & Close" production.

 

Last post I saw had him under .200 RISP L&C.

 

 

I agree. His overall numbers batting with RISP are kind of low. I think something like .250, yet he has 111 RBI. If he hit like Ency does with RISP, he'd have 130 RBI.

He needs to work on his "Late & Close" production.

 

Last post I saw had him under .200 RISP L&C.

 

he was putting too much pressure on himself. He will be better as time goes on.

Also, I would saying someone "ceiling" means what's the best they can do. I think Miggy can hit .370-.380, hit 45-50 HR, and have 150-160 RBI. His best season will be something like that.

Realistically, I would put him in the 40-45 HRs, .320-.340, 110-135 RBI range. I think at 3B, he may win a gold glove or 2.

Also, I would saying someone "ceiling" means what's the best they can do. I think Miggy can hit .370-.380, hit 45-50 HR, and have 150-160 RBI. His best season will be something like that.

 

 

 

He won't hit for such a high average. I'd actually imagine around a .300 average for his career.

 

His best season will probably be around .340/42/130, but I think he'll have many of those.

Let me clarify what I meant by not a slugger...

 

I consider Jim Thome, Ryan Howard, Carlos Delgado as sluggers. Guys with big pop, high RBI and HR numbers, but a lower BA and OBP.

 

Guys like A-Rod, Jr. (in his prime), Barry Bonds, and Albert Pujols as great hitters. Sure, they might have the power numbers, but they are very disciplined hitters who know how to work the count, drive to the opposite field and basically can hit for average if they want to.

 

I put Miguel in the great hitter category.

I agree with those numbers. They're about right.

 

I will say this... if averaging 38-40 HR and 120-140 RBI per year doesn't make you a slugger, what does? :mischief2

 

Also, if he averages those numbers, I would say he'd win more like 3-4 MVP's.

 

 

 

 

pujols has basically done that every year and has 0 mvp awards so far.

I agree with those numbers. They're about right.

 

I will say this... if averaging 38-40 HR and 120-140 RBI per year doesn't make you a slugger, what does? :mischief2

 

Also, if he averages those numbers, I would say he'd win more like 3-4 MVP's.

 

 

 

 

pujols has basically done that every year and has 0 mvp awards so far.

 

In five seasons (including this one). I was just saying that if he averages that much over the course of a career (which for him will be about 15-20 years), then he'll get 3-4 probably.

A power hitter's prime isn't until he reaches the age of 27-28. Miguel Cabrera is just 22 years old, and is already producing phenomenal numbers. It's only going to get better, once he harnesses his true potential.

I may be alone in this, but I think he's kind of at his ceiling now...

 

.330, 30 HR's and around 110 RBI.

 

The RBI number may grow, but we know how flukey that stat is, and if anything, he'll hit for less average in the future. IMO, he can't get much better, but that's not necessarily a bad thing.

I may be alone in this, but I think he's kind of at his ceiling now...

 

.330, 30 HR's and around 110 RBI.

 

The RBI number may grow, but we know how flukey that stat is, and if anything, he'll hit for less average in the future. IMO, he can't get much better, but that's not necessarily a bad thing.

 

You're not alone.

I'll take .330/30/130 every season, thank you!

I may be alone in this, but I think he's kind of at his ceiling now...

 

.330, 30 HR's and around 110 RBI.

 

The RBI number may grow, but we know how flukey that stat is, and if anything, he'll hit for less average in the future. IMO, he can't get much better, but that's not necessarily a bad thing.

 

 

What makes you think he's hit his ceiling at 22?

I may be alone in this, but I think he's kind of at his ceiling now...

 

.330, 30 HR's and around 110 RBI.

 

The RBI number may grow, but we know how flukey that stat is, and if anything, he'll hit for less average in the future. IMO, he can't get much better, but that's not necessarily a bad thing.

 

 

What makes you think he's hit his ceiling at 22?

 

What makes you think he hasn't?

 

His average has no where to go but down, his RBI numbers may fluctuate (but as far as I'm concerned, that's not a real 'stat'). His power may get better, but we're not talking a jump of 20 more home-runs.

 

For the rest of his career, he'll probably average around 35 home-runs, a .300 batting average, and (until I see otherwise) a lack of situational hitting due to the taking of 'selfish' at-bats (IE, trying to hit the 3 run homerun instead of simply putting the ball in play). Cabrera's got great instincts, a very nice baseball IQ, but the man is human.

 

I'm not saying he won't explode and hit 50 bombs in one season, I'm simply saying he won't get much better over a 3 year span than he is right now. If Cabrera shows up and does exactly what he did this year for the next 3 years, I'll take it in a heart-beat.

Well, look at it this way... there are really two areas in which he can improve. Strike-outs and homeruns. The power numbers usually go up until about age 28... of course, he's already hitting 30+ bombs per year, so it's not like he'll average 50 per year or anything. But he can certainly be a consistent 40 homeruns/year guy. Why not? Now, most players reduce the number of strike outs as they mature and reach their prime. What does cutting down on strikeouts do? More balls put into play and more walks. Result? A higher average. So, he's going to increase his power some and he'll cut down his strikeouts, which will lead to a higher average and more homeruns. Saying someone's ceiling is .330, 35HR, 115 RBI is saying he can't do any better. I think he can average that every year, but to say he can't do better when he's already producing those numbers at 22 is, in my opinion, wrong.

in 2-3 years see Puljos type numbers IF they keep protection in the line up around him.

 

He needs a Delgado there with him.

Well, look at it this way... there are really two areas in which he can improve. Strike-outs and homeruns. The power numbers usually go up until about age 28... of course, he's already hitting 30+ bombs per year, so it's not like he'll average 50 per year or anything. But he can certainly be a consistent 40 homeruns/year guy. Why not? Now, most players reduce the number of strike outs as they mature and reach their prime. What does cutting down on strikeouts do? More balls put into play and more walks. Result? A higher average. So, he's going to increase his power some and he'll cut down his strikeouts, which will lead to a higher average and more homeruns. Saying someone's ceiling is .330, 35HR, 115 RBI is saying he can't do any better. I think he can average that every year, but to say he can't do better when he's already producing those numbers at 22 is, in my opinion, wrong.

 

 

I guess we value the numbers differently.

 

Me? I'm big on batting average and situational hitting. You seem to love the long-ball (no problem there). I'm simply saying that Cabrera will probably not sniff .340 again in his career (like he was flirting with this year). To me, if he goes from being a .330 hitter with 35 HR's and 120 RBI to a .290 hitter with 45 HR's and 140 RBI, he's declined. Those 10 extra homeruns aren't worth the drop of 40 average points, those extra 20 RBI aren't worth the dip in his OBP, which likely reduces the number of runs he scored as a result of a team-mate's hit, not his own home-run.

 

He'll keep improving in areas, but to excell in so many areas like he has this year will be tough to replicate. He can do it, but he won't blow this season out of the water like many here predict.

 

in 2-3 years see Puljos type numbers IF they keep protection in the line up around him.

 

He needs a Delgado there with him.

 

 

Cabrera can't put up Pujols type numbers simply because Pujols never strikes out, he's yet to K 100 times in a season, Cabrera will always have that as an achilles heel.

He won't sniff .340? I still don't get why you think that... and why do you think he won't cut down on his strike outs? It's normal for a guy his age to whiff as often as he does... it's normal for the strike out numbers to go down. I think he'll be consistently .330-.350 range every year as long as he cuts down his strikeouts, which I have no reason to believe he won't do.

 

 

And, guys, Cabrera is currently posting Pujols type numbers. Roughly the same BA, RBI's, and slightly less power. That can be accounted for by Dolphins Stadium.

I agree with those numbers. They're about right.

 

I will say this... if averaging 38-40 HR and 120-140 RBI per year doesn't make you a slugger, what does? :mischief2

 

Also, if he averages those numbers, I would say he'd win more like 3-4 MVP's.

 

 

 

 

pujols has basically done that every year and has 0 mvp awards so far.

 

And the main reason he has 0 MVP awards is because of Barry Bonds. Barry won't be around for much longer and he certainly won't be around during Cabrera's prime.

He won't sniff .340? I still don't get why you think that... and why do you think he won't cut down on his strike outs? It's normal for a guy his age to whiff as often as he does... it's normal for the strike out numbers to go down. I think he'll be consistently .330-.350 range every year as long as he cuts down his strikeouts, which I have no reason to believe he won't do.

 

 

And, guys, Cabrera is currently posting Pujols type numbers. Roughly the same BA, RBI's, and slightly less power. That can be accounted for by Dolphins Stadium.

 

 

I see no reason to think Cabrera will hit for a high average simply because once he climbed into the league leader for batting average, he came crashing back down, which to me says that the kid was overachieving.

 

Here's the other thing, Cabrera K'd 148 times last season, Pujols has struck out 279 times in his career entering this season. To surpass Cabrera's K total for last season, you'd have to combine Pujols' first two years in the big leagues, and even then it would only be surpassed by a handful of K's.

 

Cabrera's a great player, but this may be his career season given the type of year he's having. I have a hard time envisioning a guy who's going to probably K around 130 times every year hitting above .320. I mean, look at the perennial average leaders (Helton, Bonds, Casey, Pujols, Damon, Pierre) none of them come close to 130 K's. A season or two like this isn't out of the question, but it happening with regularity is doubtful.

 

He'll always be a leader in the power numbers, but he just isn't a triple-crown threat. He doesn't have the speed to beat out tough grounders which is something needed to stay above .320.

Swift, I hear what you're saying. And I disagree for one reason. All of Cabrera's main problems, I think, are problems that are generally corrected with age and maturity. Sure, Pujols never had the problems - but then again, Pujols is in Ted Williams/Joe Dimaggio land of greatness. If Cabrera is performing this well while he is still relatively immature, I'd imagine that he will get a better grasp of the strike zone and cut down on his strikeouts as he ages and matures.

 

Again, I could be wrong - but that's what I expect.

 

However, if that never happens - then I totally agree with your assessment.

I have just never heard of someone having a career season at age 22. Hitters get better as they get older until they start their decline at around the age of 32/33.