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Moehler or Sanchez?


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Give or take an inning or so in his next start Sanchez will be bumping up against the number of innings he threw all of last season and part of the thinking may be he becomes the first of the young starters to take a rest for a few turns. Clearly Girardi is all about protecting these kids' arms, even at the expense of a win or two.

 

Not saying I'm right or it's the right decision, not saying that's the reason Moehler may be considered, just an observation.

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I want future so I am going with Anibal but what Marlins2003 said about innings pitches makes me wonder if we should start Moe. BUT... Johnson, Nolasco and Olsen have not pitched a full year so they are in the same boat. Just go with Anibal :thumbup .

 

But Holly, that was my point though.

 

You "may" see Moehler used over the next month to give ALL the young starters a turn or two off.

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I want future so I am going with Anibal but what Marlins2003 said about innings pitches makes me wonder if we should start Moe. BUT... Johnson, Nolasco and Olsen have not pitched a full year so they are in the same boat. Just go with Anibal :thumbup .

 

But Holly, that was my point though.

 

You "may" see Moehler used over the next month to give ALL the young starters a turn or two off.

 

 

Okay, Got ya :thumbup

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Give or take an inning or so in his next start Sanchez will be bumping up against the number of innings he threw all of last season and part of the thinking may be he becomes the first of the young starters to take a rest for a few turns. Clearly Girardi is all about protecting these kids' arms, even at the expense of a win or two.

 

Not saying I'm right or it's the right decision, not saying that's the reason Moehler may be considered, just an observation.

 

I've been meaning to look at the # of innings each of the rookies threw last year and project when they would reach their '06 limit but I've been too lazy to look it up until now with Sanchez. Last year he threw 137 innings and has thrown 126 this season. What would be a reasonable innings progression? Maybe up to 160 this season? That would give him about 5 more starts and would keep him in the rotation until early September. I wouldn't mind at all if each of the 5 starters got some extra rest from time to time by starting a 6th guy but the 6th guy would be either Mitre, Petit, Sanchez or even Pinto but not Moehler.

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Girardi has said a couple of times now that none of the young pitchers are going to go over the 200 IP mark, and ideally they'll sit in the 170-180 range at the end of the year.

 

Sanchez has 126 IP combined this year so far, so I think he is fine for August at least. I think the bigger issue is how he pitches from here on out.

 

Its funny, but the guy i'm really starting to worry about the most usage wise isn't any of these rookie pitchers, its Dontrelle. As a result i'm all in favor of the 6 man rotation, for Dontrelle's sake if nobody else. In fact if we're out of contention by the start of september, i'd seriously consider shutting Dontrelle down for the rest of the year. He'll be close to 200 IP probably by that time anyway, and burning his arm in September when we could be giving starts to Petit/Pinto makes little sense.

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I don't mind keeping Moehler around in the bullpen or in case that one of our starters needs a breather, but sending Anibal down? Seriously, he's only pitched 40 innings so far, has done great in four of his 6 starts, so why replace him with Moehler who is going to get banged around all the time? I go with letting the kid pitch and try to evaluate whether or not he belongs in the majors for the rest of the year. That's what this season is all about, so give the young guys the upper hand and let him pitch.

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I don't mind keeping Moehler around in the bullpen or in case that one of our starters needs a breather, but sending Anibal down? Seriously, he's only pitched 40 innings so far, has done great in four of his 6 starts, so why replace him with Moehler who is going to get banged around all the time? I go with letting the kid pitch and try to evaluate whether or not he belongs in the majors for the rest of the year. That's what this season is all about, so give the young guys the upper hand and let him pitch.

 

I agree with you about sending any of our existing starters "down", including Sanchez, but you are forgetting all the innings he threw in AA this season before being called up.

 

His total innings so far is approximately 125-130 innings, not forty.

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I think Sanchez needs to get all the experience he can get since he will be a full time starter next year. If we are out of it in September I'd like to see Pinto, Petit, Vargas and Mitre get allot of starts to really show what they have or don't have. Mitre's been hurt the entire season and I would like to see what he can do with the team we have now instead of the 11-31 team. In all of his starts he only had 2 really bad games. The other 3 just sat around and would only pitch in blow out games when they were up.

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I don't mind keeping Moehler around in the bullpen or in case that one of our starters needs a breather, but sending Anibal down? Seriously, he's only pitched 40 innings so far, has done great in four of his 6 starts, so why replace him with Moehler who is going to get banged around all the time? I go with letting the kid pitch and try to evaluate whether or not he belongs in the majors for the rest of the year. That's what this season is all about, so give the young guys the upper hand and let him pitch.

 

I agree with you about sending any of our existing starters "down", including Sanchez, but you are forgetting all the innings he threw in AA this season before being called up.

 

His total innings so far is approximately 125-130 innings, not forty.

 

I meant 40 at the big league level; i know that he was pitching all year long in AA. Still, if you send him down do it because he is actually getting tired and can't perform; if he is pitching well and is not fatigued, why do so? Keep him around and if he struggles or starts feeling the weight of all the innings he has pitched then reconsider keeping him with the big club. But if he can stay, contribute, get some experience, build up his arm strength and gain some confidence, then keep him where he is.

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A few years ago I was listening to some (not local) sports show and it featured two perrenial all-star type pitchers, both whose names escape me. For argument sake let's say Warren Spahn and Jim Palmer types.

 

The jist of their comments were this. Rushing pitchers and overusing them in their first TWO years in the major leagues reduces the number of innings they will pitch in their careers exponentially. In other words, the more innings they throw when they arrive, the shorter their careers.

 

The other point both made was that generally free agency has led to kids coming up with 200 or less innings under their professional belts as opposed the 500 or so minor league pitchers accumulated in the fifties, sixties and into the seventies.

 

Yes, yes there are always exceptions, but I think their points are well taken and apply to our four rookies perfectly. So far, none have been injured, so far Girardi is being very protective and I think rightly so. The less they pitch this season the stronger and more capable they will be next season. And if next (2007) season they are limited in their pitch counts and innings again, only slightly less so, by 2008 you'll have four starting pitchers who could pull a Greyhound bus out of a ditch and still pitch the next day.

 

Girardi is looking longterm. Shut these guys down when they plateau or reach whatever Kranitz thinks their magic number is. Keep them healthy, let their bodies mature, there's nothing more to be learned in a season after you've pitched 180+ innings that requires you to throw forty-fifty more.

 

The only thing you'll learn is how long it takes to fly to Birmingham.

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The year is about building up youth.

 

so you start the kid

 

I wouldnt mind going to a 6 man rotation to keep arms fresh and pulling up pettit to start too if he shows in AAA he is indeed ready.

 

no, you don't want to do that, because you want the kids' arms to build up, so they can pitch 200 innings in the future.

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