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Hanley


Sirspud
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This team's offense is going to be crippled until we move Hanley back to leadoff, where he has been one of the most productive players in the league. I know Amezaga has done a reasonable job batting leadoff, but this is about maximizing the output of our second best offensive player. Hanley has been a catalyst for this offense as a leadoff batter, where he is able to use his excellent speed and hitting ability to be a run scorer. By batting him third or lower in the order, we are making his excellent base stealing skills, among the tops in the league, completely irrelevant. Fredi also made this move completely ignoring the fact that Hanley has an extremely low batting average with runners in scoring position. There is a reason why guys like Hanley, Rollins, Reyes, and Soriano excel in the leadoff spot despite being complete hitters. These guys are all table setters and catalysts, and they're value is lowered by moving them down. Our offense did just fine with Willy in the 4-spot last year, and while ideally we would have a more capable middle of the order slugger we don't. But let's get the most out of the players we have, and not try and compensate for ones we don't.

 

It bugs me tremendously when people have attributed our recent offensive success to Hanley moving down. IMO, there was no correlation, as Hanley did not participate in many of our offensive rallies (his one homer during this span was a solo shot). What was responsible were grandslams from Boone, and guys like Hermida and Uggla being hot. As well as the fact that we were facing what was for the most part sub-par pitchimg. Against teams like the Mets, we lose our ability to manufacture runs.

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When you're 0 for a series, it's easy to think that his lack of production cost us. IMO, the only time Hanley truly "cost" us anything was in the 1st inning of the 1st game when he failed to plate the runner at third.

 

Miggy 3rd and Hanley 1st suits this team far better, if for no other reason than I think Hanley has yet to have a stolen base attempt as the 3 hole hitter.

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Another thing I forgot to mention is that by having Hanley hit third and not Cabrera, Cabrera came up 3-4 times to leadoff the inning last night. Miggy needs to be our teams number three hitter and I'm glad at least Fredi did that today.

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I agree with your analysis Sirspud. It seems a shame to move such a stolen best threat who is also a great hitter, but not yet a huge run producer, down in the lineup. Hanley is a great run scorer and catylist, but has power numbers lower than the average number three hitter. Being one of the best all around hitters in the game, Cabrera is made to be a number three hitter.

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I think the real thing to remember is that no matter how hot Amezaga was with the bat this weekend, he's still yet to get his season average to the .250 mark, Abercrombie yet to get to .210.

 

With those two guys the leadoff replacement options, there's absolutely no justification in "making the lineup better" by giving them the leadoff spot. That's the key, there's is absolutely no reasonable replacement for Hanley in the dugout that makes our lineup convincingly better with him 3.

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When you're 0 for a series, it's easy to think that his lack of production cost us. IMO, the only time Hanley truly "cost" us anything was in the 1st inning of the 1st game when he failed to plate the runner at third.

 

Miggy 3rd and Hanley 1st suits this team far better, if for no other reason than I think Hanley has yet to have a stolen base attempt as the 3 hole hitter.

 

Actually he is 2 for 3 in SB attempts from the 3 hole. And he has gone 13 for 35 with 8 runs scored and an 8 game hit streak thrown in. Amazega is real fine on the bases and has the speed to lay down a bunt for a hit. Reggie also has the speed and is not bad on the bases, despite what some say.

The only good and true argument for Hanley not hitting 3rd would be his worse than dismal numbers when we have runners in scoring position. The table is being set for him, he just isn't coming through. After the 1st inning saying Miggy is coming to bat 1st 3-4 times just dosen't fit this argument unless Hanley is going up there with RISP and making 3 outs all on his own. Actually if Hanley were coming through with RISP then this would be a moot point.

It wouldn't bother me a bit to see him back in the lead off spot. At least until he shows he will hit with RISP. But after reading a brief article on the Marlins web site it seems Fredi is enamored with this little experiment so I don't see any change happening soon.

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It's not just RISP, he isn't good when any runners are on.

 

He's amazing with the bases open though, with Cabs as protections. I think him at the 2 hole with cabs batting third would be interesting, but that still leaves the need for a leadoff hitter.

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I think the real thing to remember is that no matter how hot Amezaga was with the bat this weekend, he's still yet to get his season average to the .250 mark, Abercrombie yet to get to .210.

 

With those two guys the leadoff replacement options, there's absolutely no justification in "making the lineup better" by giving them the leadoff spot. That's the key, there's is absolutely no reasonable replacement for Hanley in the dugout that makes our lineup convincingly better with him 3.

 

If only the facts backed this line of thinking up.

 

When Amezaga leads off his numbers skyrocket, almost 70 points higher when he leads off vs eighth or down in the lineup. Amezaga is currently hitting .315/.345 with three stolen bases (which would translate into over 35 stolen bases were he playing full-time) when he hits leadoff. Without a doubt he's a guy who benefits from the protection hitting at the top of the lineup brings and seems, at least to me, more aggressive too.

 

Not the greatest leadoff hitter in the game but I can think of at least a half dozen teams in the NL alone who would love to get those stats from their lead-off guy. True, he's not producing at Hanley's clip, but honestly who is? Until someone better comes along to hit third or deeper in the lineup, and maybe things change when Jacobs is healthy and DeAza finally makes it back, but for now Amezaga's producing there, and as long as he does, and we're without a better option, having three of the four guys at the top of the lineup hitting .300 or better is not a bad thing.

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I think the real thing to remember is that no matter how hot Amezaga was with the bat this weekend, he's still yet to get his season average to the .250 mark, Abercrombie yet to get to .210.

 

With those two guys the leadoff replacement options, there's absolutely no justification in "making the lineup better" by giving them the leadoff spot. That's the key, there's is absolutely no reasonable replacement for Hanley in the dugout that makes our lineup convincingly better with him 3.

 

If only the facts backed this line of thinking up.

 

When Amezaga leads off his numbers skyrocket, almost 70 points higher when he leads off vs eighth or down in the lineup. Amezaga is currently hitting .315/.345 with three stolen bases (which would translate into over 35 stolen bases were he playing full-time) when he hits leadoff. Without a doubt he's a guy who benefits from the protection hitting at the top of the lineup brings and seems, at least to me, more aggressive too.

 

Not the greatest leadoff hitter in the game but I can think of at least a half dozen teams in the NL alone who would love to get those stats from their lead-off guy. True, he's not producing at Hanley's clip, but honestly who is? Until someone better comes along to hit third or deeper in the lineup, and maybe things change when Jacobs is healthy and DeAza finally makes it back, but for now Amezaga's producing there, and as long as he does, and we're without a better option, having three of the four guys at the top of the lineup hitting .300 or better is not a bad thing.

 

I don't think it is that hard to imagine a Cabs-Willy middle of the order doing much better than Hanley. He just isn't a middle of the order guy at this point in his career. It won't be long before Hanley's .300 average is gone, as will be his lead in runs scored. Is it gonna take another few horrible offensive series for both him and the team to prove this?

 

The job Amezaga is doing isn't really in question. But he needs the guys behind him to get him in and Hanley hasn't shown the ability to do that.

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The job Amezaga is doing isn't really in question. But he needs the guys behind him to get him in and Hanley hasn't shown the ability to do that.

 

Amezaga hits significantly lower (in approx the same at bats) further down in the lineup, which in itself is a problem. Ramirez has been mired in something of a slump, which I suspect has nothing to do with him batting third. Slumps come and go.

 

Just my opinion. Not saying it's better than yours.

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The job Amezaga is doing isn't really in question. But he needs the guys behind him to get him in and Hanley hasn't shown the ability to do that.

 

Amezaga hits significantly lower (in approx the same at bats) further down in the lineup, which in itself is a problem. Ramirez has been mired in something of a slump, which I suspect has nothing to do with him batting third. Slumps come and go.

 

Just my opinion. Not saying it's better than yours.

 

Amezaga has been outstanding recently in the leadoff spot, but if he is made the everyday CF from here on out he will be exposed for the hitter he is, and thats not a .315/.345 hitter.

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I think the real thing to remember is that no matter how hot Amezaga was with the bat this weekend, he's still yet to get his season average to the .250 mark, Abercrombie yet to get to .210.

 

With those two guys the leadoff replacement options, there's absolutely no justification in "making the lineup better" by giving them the leadoff spot. That's the key, there's is absolutely no reasonable replacement for Hanley in the dugout that makes our lineup convincingly better with him 3.

I agree- until we have a full-time leadoff hitter, Hanley is our best bet for leading off right now.

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I kind of like the idea of hitting Hermida second. I like having a left hand bat in that position. Uggla is a good hitter and he think his numbers are going to be fine, but he is a bit streaky. His power numbers are good and hitting him fifth might work well. I defintely want to keep Cabrera third. Statistically, the higher someone hits in the order, the more at bats they are going to get over the course of the season. Why wouldn't you want your best hitter getting as many at bats as possible and also getting up in the first inning every time? Same thing for Hanley. Let him have the most at bats possible while taking full advantage of his speed at the leadoff spot. He may be 2/3 for steals so far since he has been moved, but he will not get as many steals over the course of the season. There just aren't as many opportunities for third batters to run as leadoff men (which works out well for Cabrera because we really don't want to see him run).

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I kind of like the idea of hitting Hermida second. I like having a left hand bat in that position. Uggla is a good hitter and he think his numbers are going to be fine, but he is a bit streaky. His power numbers are good and hitting him fifth might work well. I defintely want to keep Cabrera third. Statistically, the higher someone hits in the order, the more at bats they are going to get over the course of the season. Why wouldn't you want your best hitter getting as many at bats as possible and also getting up in the first inning every time? Same thing for Hanley. Let him have the most at bats possible while taking full advantage of his speed at the leadoff spot. He may be 2/3 for steals so far since he has been moved, but he will not get as many steals over the course of the season. There just aren't as many opportunities for third batters to run as leadoff men (which works out well for Cabrera because we really don't want to see him run).

 

If you're going to move Uggla down, cleanup would be a good spot for him because of his extra base hit ability. The only reason I've never been a proponent of moving Uggla around is because second is where he has had his success, and as we've seen with Hanley, moving a top of the order guy around can have negative effects. These would obviously be less significant than with Hanley.

 

Love you SN, btw. If it were up to me, Craig would be batting third.

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how long till uggla gets moved out of the 2-hole? what in the world is the league-leader in extra-base hits doing in the 2-slot?

 

put hanley back at leadoff, let amezaga bat 2nd and have uggla in the meat of the order to help drive those two in. you'd have a bit of the castillo/pierre effect on the basepaths and hopefully you'd be adding another RBI machine down in the order.

 

hanley

amezaga

cabrera

willingham

uggla

hermida

boone

olivo (or olivo 7th and boone 8th...but i dont get why fredi keeps doing that, boone is the better hitter)

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Hanley has got to go back to leadoff.

 

I realize detractors would be quick to dismiss this as nothing more than a "funk" and not a result of the 3 hole, yet others are quick to point out that Amezaga must remain in the leadoff spot because his numbers are better there.

 

Well, you can't have a product of lineup positioning AND a "slump" standing there directly contradicting each other.

 

Hanley first and Miggy third helps the lineup SO much, I don't even care who we bat second, even if I think it should be Hermida. Hell, we could bat Abercrombie second... :p

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