One of my biggest beefs with all the projections that's been out is everyone is harsh on our pitching. This is expecially huh worthy considering the improvements of our defense (Jacobs gone, Cantu with now with a year of experience at third, OF shift. All this saves us, like 30-40 runs). So, I decided to just do my own roundball rather than coming up with a win projection out of thin air.

 

Offense:

Last year: 770

Projected: 815

 

This was more or less going off other projections with my own twists. Unfortunately, it's basically "best case scenerio". Nobody got injured, everyone OPS'd well, so on. I just did the strait 5 bench (Dallas/Amezaga/Helms/Rabelo/Andino), and just gave Andino 120 ABs rather than worry about every possible bench possibility. And just strait ripped our pitchers battings stats from last year.

 

Pitching:

last year: 767

Project: 660

 

And this was after I de-homered Ricky's FIP from 3.10 (Using periphials from his "I'm the best pitcher ever" stretch) up to a more rational 3.48 (More around the periphials he had all of last year). The thing is...I don't really think you can say anybody is homer-fied. Hell, I have only one pitcher in our BP with a sub-4 FIP (Matty). I mean yeah, the projections are terrorizing Volstad, and I have him one full run lower (about 20 runs over a whole season), but f*** their projections of him. It's just a question of, can these guys stay healthy?

 

Did the same thing here as I did with Andino, just throwing all extra starts to Badenhop and extra BP innings to Tankersley.

 

P-Record of 97-65. Good for #1 in the NL east going by PECOTA :cool

 

PECOTA has our offense at 769, so I definitely don't think my offensive projection is any means a stretch really. I mean, once somebody gets injured, that's going to drop to a more reasonable, oh, 790-800ish.

 

And then they have our RA at 822, 162 runs over mine. I mean, improved defense of 30-40 runs, and not getting the, what, 60 jack ass starts from last year, I don't see how a 100 run drop is that big of a stretch.

 

However, I certainly know there is a bit of homer in the numbers, and I certainly think 97 wins is aksing a bit much. Add in injury for offense and we're now talking about, like, 790 runs. Do same with pitching (although I did better there, giving Badenhop 22 starts), some regression from homer, and we're talking about, like 690? 92 wins. I'd say that's definitely more reasonable. But I'm holding out for 97. GO ELITE STARTING PITCHING STAFF GO

 

Attached is xls files if you want to do your own thing. Might aswell just make this a general projection thread since I didn't think we've had one yet.

 

For hitting, you have to input AB, Hits, 2B, 3B, HR, and Walks. It automatically does TB, AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS. You want the final PA to be around 6100. For pitching, you have to enter IP, HR, BB, SO, and it does the rest. GS needs to add up to 162 obviously, IP to 1458.

 

Pitching projections are easy. Just get your projected IP, divide 9 by that, than divide what you think they're X/9 is going to be by that number. So for like Matty's K's, I think he'll have about a 7.75 K/9 and 80 innings pitched. 9/80=0.1125. 7.75/0.1125=68.888, so 69 Ks next year. Hitting is more play and see haha. www.fangraphs.com makes things a lot easier since it has previous year stats plus a lot of projections.

 

And pics of mine:

 

 

 

 

Excel Files:

hitting: http://misc.selftitled.net/baseballproj/2009hittingproj.xls

 

Pitching: http://misc.selftitled.net/baseballproj/2009pitchingproj.xls

97 wins is homerish and 92 wins is slightly optimistic. If the starting rotation stays healthy throughout the year I think we can get to about 88-90 wins. If we pull off a nice trade and add a bat and a little pitching, 92 is doable. As of now, I think this is an 85-87 win team.

97 wins is homerish and 92 wins is slightly optimistic. If the starting rotation stays healthy throughout the year I think we can get to about 88-90 wins. If we pull off a nice trade and add a bat and a little pitching, 92 is doable. As of now, I think this is an 85-87 win team.

 

The thing about that is.... if you think about it, it really isn't ridiculous to win 92 as-is. We won 84 without having our pitchers for a good part of the year. Do you really think 8 wins is that far fetched with them actually on the field? And the bullpen won't be as tired as a result... and so on. Basically I could reiterate all of Nny's points here... but the biggest one is going to be having the pitching *knock on wood* for a whole season.

97 wins is homerish and 92 wins is slightly optimistic. If the starting rotation stays healthy throughout the year I think we can get to about 88-90 wins. If we pull off a nice trade and add a bat and a little pitching, 92 is doable. As of now, I think this is an 85-87 win team.

 

The thing about that is.... if you think about it, it really isn't ridiculous to win 92 as-is. We won 84 without having our pitchers for a good part of the year. Do you really think 8 wins is that far fetched with them actually on the field? And the bullpen won't be as tired as a result... and so on. Basically I could reiterate all of Nny's points here... but the biggest one is going to be having the pitching *knock on wood* for a whole season.

 

Agreed, but the thing is one or more pitchers could regress this year. That's really the major question. Will our top pitchers continue to perform at the same level this year? I think Volstad is a candidate to come back down to earth. Hitters will make adjustments. I think Ricky and JJ will do well - I think they've pitched enough in the league that I think they'll probably be relatively consistent. But what happens if Volstad and Sanchez struggle? Then all of a sudden we're an 80-82 win team. I didn't say that 92 wins is ridiculous - it's just optimistic. Healthy reotation and relief pitching and we can be at around 90-93/94 wins if our starters perform like they did last year.

97 wins is homerish and 92 wins is slightly optimistic. If the starting rotation stays healthy throughout the year I think we can get to about 88-90 wins. If we pull off a nice trade and add a bat and a little pitching, 92 is doable. As of now, I think this is an 85-87 win team.

 

The thing about that is.... if you think about it, it really isn't ridiculous to win 92 as-is. We won 84 without having our pitchers for a good part of the year. Do you really think 8 wins is that far fetched with them actually on the field? And the bullpen won't be as tired as a result... and so on. Basically I could reiterate all of Nny's points here... but the biggest one is going to be having the pitching *knock on wood* for a whole season.

 

My guess is about 82-84 wins.

 

What do you think will be our starters ERA?

97 wins is homerish and 92 wins is slightly optimistic. If the starting rotation stays healthy throughout the year I think we can get to about 88-90 wins. If we pull off a nice trade and add a bat and a little pitching, 92 is doable. As of now, I think this is an 85-87 win team.

 

The thing about that is.... if you think about it, it really isn't ridiculous to win 92 as-is. We won 84 without having our pitchers for a good part of the year. Do you really think 8 wins is that far fetched with them actually on the field? And the bullpen won't be as tired as a result... and so on. Basically I could reiterate all of Nny's points here... but the biggest one is going to be having the pitching *knock on wood* for a whole season.

 

My guess is about 82-84 wins.

 

What do you think will be our starters ERA?

He has Nolasco/JJ mid 3s, Volstad, Miller, and Anibal low 4s, and Badenhop a low 5. All relievers are over a 4 era.

 

They'll win 84 in their sleep unless this team has 3+ massive injuries. It's going to be hard for them not to improve their run differential with the enormous pitching and defensive gains we are going to have, coupled with the offense not getting any worse.

97 wins is homerish and 92 wins is slightly optimistic. If the starting rotation stays healthy throughout the year I think we can get to about 88-90 wins. If we pull off a nice trade and add a bat and a little pitching, 92 is doable. As of now, I think this is an 85-87 win team.

 

The thing about that is.... if you think about it, it really isn't ridiculous to win 92 as-is. We won 84 without having our pitchers for a good part of the year. Do you really think 8 wins is that far fetched with them actually on the field? And the bullpen won't be as tired as a result... and so on. Basically I could reiterate all of Nny's points here... but the biggest one is going to be having the pitching *knock on wood* for a whole season.

 

Agreed, but the thing is one or more pitchers could regress this year. That's really the major question. Will our top pitchers continue to perform at the same level this year? I think Volstad is a candidate to come back down to earth. Hitters will make adjustments. I think Ricky and JJ will do well - I think they've pitched enough in the league that I think they'll probably be relatively consistent. But what happens if Volstad and Sanchez struggle? Then all of a sudden we're an 80-82 win team. I didn't say that 92 wins is ridiculous - it's just optimistic. Healthy reotation and relief pitching and we can be at around 90-93/94 wins if our starters perform like they did last year.

 

Well, any projection is subject to the "big ifs"... but our craptastic replacement pitchers last year put up what... a 6ish ERA? You almost HAVE to believe that even with regression, our main guys will be better than 6s. Plus the improved defense is an inherent boost. And given Nny's extrapolation of Badenhop as that extra guy, he's obviously counting for some missed time somewhere.

 

It's just cool to have an expectation in the 90s range and not have that expectation be unrealistic.

 

As for Poloa... I don't really know what our starters ERA would be for the whole season - Nny's seems to peg a low-to-mid 4, which I would think is reasonable as most people that know anything about baseball know that our starting rotation (sans ifs) is one of the best in the league.

 

Obviously if we have to start a Mark Hendrickson or an extended dose of a RVH or something like that, it goes up.

97 wins is homerish and 92 wins is slightly optimistic. If the starting rotation stays healthy throughout the year I think we can get to about 88-90 wins. If we pull off a nice trade and add a bat and a little pitching, 92 is doable. As of now, I think this is an 85-87 win team.

 

The thing about that is.... if you think about it, it really isn't ridiculous to win 92 as-is. We won 84 without having our pitchers for a good part of the year. Do you really think 8 wins is that far fetched with them actually on the field? And the bullpen won't be as tired as a result... and so on. Basically I could reiterate all of Nny's points here... but the biggest one is going to be having the pitching *knock on wood* for a whole season.

 

My guess is about 82-84 wins.

 

What do you think will be our starters ERA?

He has Nolasco/JJ mid 3s, Volstad, Miller, and Anibal low 4s, and Badenhop a low 5. All relievers are over a 4 era.

 

They'll win 84 in their sleep unless this team has 3+ massive injuries. It's going to be hard for them not to improve their run differential with the enormous pitching and defensive gains we are going to have, coupled with the offense not getting any worse.

 

Those ERAs seem reasonable and would leave the team in the low 4's. Last year that would have being a little better than average but not great. The league average starters ERA was 4.43. I think the starters will be better than last year and better than the average team but I think people overrate them. I think the bullpen and offense will decline a bit and the defense will improve.

97 wins is homerish and 92 wins is slightly optimistic. If the starting rotation stays healthy throughout the year I think we can get to about 88-90 wins. If we pull off a nice trade and add a bat and a little pitching, 92 is doable. As of now, I think this is an 85-87 win team.

 

The thing about that is.... if you think about it, it really isn't ridiculous to win 92 as-is. We won 84 without having our pitchers for a good part of the year. Do you really think 8 wins is that far fetched with them actually on the field? And the bullpen won't be as tired as a result... and so on. Basically I could reiterate all of Nny's points here... but the biggest one is going to be having the pitching *knock on wood* for a whole season.

 

My guess is about 82-84 wins.

 

What do you think will be our starters ERA?

He has Nolasco/JJ mid 3s, Volstad, Miller, and Anibal low 4s, and Badenhop a low 5. All relievers are over a 4 era.

 

They'll win 84 in their sleep unless this team has 3+ massive injuries. It's going to be hard for them not to improve their run differential with the enormous pitching and defensive gains we are going to have, coupled with the offense not getting any worse.

 

Those ERAs seem reasonable and would leave the team in the low 4's. Last year that would have being a little better than average but not great. The league average starters ERA was 4.43. I think the starters will be better than last year and better than the average team but I think people overrate them. I think the bullpen and offense will decline a bit and the defense will improve.

 

It'd be 3.95 ERA, which would tie for 4th last year in the NL. Total ERA of 4.07, which would tie 7th with mets last year. I agree abou the BP (I have us at 4.30, last year we were 4.06. That'd put us 4th worst NL last year. Which doesn't boad well, since a bad BP can lead to underpforming P Record...), not about the offense. The only returning starter that is basically a sure-decline is Uggla. Perihpials point to Cantu/Ross's seasons not being flukes (infact, given their age, we could expect (slight) improvement). There will be drops from Jacobs to Gaby and Hammer/Gonzo to Maybin, but those should be filled by the huge upgrade at C and Hermida not being a dick. I think we're at worst where we were last year offensively. But the defense improving (Eyeballing I estimate around 30-40 runs improvement from Jake to Gaby (which takes up a lot of it lol), Cantu with a full year of experience at 3b, and the OF shift) is part of why I'm high on the pitching.

 

Also something to remember is that if even just one of Trahern/Thompson/Sinkbeil stop being assholes and return to form, our depth changes a lot. I still have faith in Trahern and a little in Thompson.

It'd be 3.95 ERA, which would tie for 4th last year in the NL. Total ERA of 4.07, which would tie 7th with mets last year. I agree abou the BP, not about the offense. The only returning starter that is basically a sure-decline is Uggla. Perihpials point to Cantu/Ross's seasons not being flukes (infact, given their age, we could expect (slight) improvement). There will be drops from Jacobs to Gaby and Hammer/Gonzo to Maybin, but those should be filled by the huge upgrade at C and Hermida not being a dick. I think we're at worst where we were last year offensively.

 

Also something to remember is that if even just one of Trahern/Thompson/Sinkbeil stop being assholes and return to form, our depth changes a lot. I still have faith in Trahern and a little in Thompson.

 

Just to add in the bolded part, I believe per something you said before, to put things in perspective.

 

For Gaby to EQUAL Mike Jacobs from last year... he could .675 OPS with league average defense?

 

Which means, even with the offensive dip (which I expect to be somewhat slight) Gaby is far more useful

It'd be 3.95 ERA, which would tie for 4th last year in the NL. Total ERA of 4.07, which would tie 7th with mets last year. I agree abou the BP, not about the offense. The only returning starter that is basically a sure-decline is Uggla. Perihpials point to Cantu/Ross's seasons not being flukes (infact, given their age, we could expect (slight) improvement). There will be drops from Jacobs to Gaby and Hammer/Gonzo to Maybin, but those should be filled by the huge upgrade at C and Hermida not being a dick. I think we're at worst where we were last year offensively.

 

Also something to remember is that if even just one of Trahern/Thompson/Sinkbeil stop being assholes and return to form, our depth changes a lot. I still have faith in Trahern and a little in Thompson.

 

Just to add in the bolded part, I believe per something you said before, to put things in perspective.

 

For Gaby to EQUAL Mike Jacobs from last year... he could .675 OPS with league average defense?

 

Which means, even with the offensive dip (which I expect to be somewhat slight) Gaby is far more useful

 

 

If Jacobs really did cost us 23 runs on defense, yeah. Scary bad lol...

I think the questions are pretty large. Will Cantu perform? Is Maybin ready? Can Hermida rebound? Is Baker a legitimate starting catcher? Will the rotation stay healthy?

 

But with answers in the affirmative we are headed for great things.

I hate to sound pessimistic, but 97 wins is really a stretch.

I hate to sound pessimistic, but 97 wins is really a stretch.

 

 

I basically said as much, that 97 wins is being extremely aggressive and basically 0 offensive injuries.

Excellent work Nny

97 wins is homerish and 92 wins is slightly optimistic. If the starting rotation stays healthy throughout the year I think we can get to about 88-90 wins. If we pull off a nice trade and add a bat and a little pitching, 92 is doable. As of now, I think this is an 85-87 win team.

 

The thing about that is.... if you think about it, it really isn't ridiculous to win 92 as-is. We won 84 without having our pitchers for a good part of the year. Do you really think 8 wins is that far fetched with them actually on the field? And the bullpen won't be as tired as a result... and so on. Basically I could reiterate all of Nny's points here... but the biggest one is going to be having the pitching *knock on wood* for a whole season.

 

Agreed, but the thing is one or more pitchers could regress this year. That's really the major question. Will our top pitchers continue to perform at the same level this year? I think Volstad is a candidate to come back down to earth. Hitters will make adjustments. I think Ricky and JJ will do well - I think they've pitched enough in the league that I think they'll probably be relatively consistent. But what happens if Volstad and Sanchez struggle? Then all of a sudden we're an 80-82 win team. I didn't say that 92 wins is ridiculous - it's just optimistic. Healthy reotation and relief pitching and we can be at around 90-93/94 wins if our starters perform like they did last year.

 

The point is, here are seemingly reasonable projections for the stats of our entire roster, and they equate to 92 wins (given Nny's assumptions and likely outcomes).

You say that you think this is an 85-87 win team, and that's fine. But how did you arrive at that number? Just a guess? Here's a mathematical demonstration, and I think if you are to say that we're an 85-87 win team (or any other guess, for that matter), I'd be curious where you would alter Nny's numbers?

To me, the ERA projections are reasonable. Volstad in the low 4s is something I think is quite possible. Anibal makes me a bit nervous if he really struggles throughout stretches, but it's tough for me to find fault with the other numbers, at least at first glance. Unless we win a bunch of 10-2 games and lose a bunch of 4-3 games, then I find 92 wins believable, if for no other reason then the mathematical reasoning is right here.

NNY, I misread what Lou wrote. Anyway, my guess is if everyone stays relatively healthy and make 30 starts the starters ERA would be 4.17. This is with two guys at 3.50 making 30 starts pitching 195 innings and two others making 30 starts at 4.25 pitching 180 innings and one guy making 30 starts pitching 165 innings at 5.00 and then 12 spot starst pitching 54 innings at 6.00.

I've had the chance to see the Marlins alot this springs and i really think our offense is going to be hurting....

Our pitching will only carry us so far.....

The defense looks horrible....

I think 85 wins no playoffs....

 

Sorry if that sounds bad but i think this team is going to struggle....

But i'm still going to go to as many Marlins games as i can...

I've had the chance to see the Marlins alot this springs and i really think our offense is going to be hurting....

Maybe you've missed Maybin, Hermida, and Baker absolutely annihilating baseballs all spring. Those were the big question marks. This bodes really well for us when Hanley gets going, Cantu shows up from the WBC, and Uggla/Ross continue to do their productive hacking thing.

 

So we're unsure about McPherson is what you're telling me, and we have a bunch of slap hitters on the bench. That's not making or breaking the offense. I wouldn't be very worried.

 

The problem is still getting 500 IP out of Anibal, A. Miller, Badenhop, Vanden Hurk, and Trahern as the 4-5-spot starters.

97 wins is homerish and 92 wins is slightly optimistic. If the starting rotation stays healthy throughout the year I think we can get to about 88-90 wins. If we pull off a nice trade and add a bat and a little pitching, 92 is doable. As of now, I think this is an 85-87 win team.

 

The thing about that is.... if you think about it, it really isn't ridiculous to win 92 as-is. We won 84 without having our pitchers for a good part of the year. Do you really think 8 wins is that far fetched with them actually on the field? And the bullpen won't be as tired as a result... and so on. Basically I could reiterate all of Nny's points here... but the biggest one is going to be having the pitching *knock on wood* for a whole season.

 

 

 

I SAY 100-62. QUOTE ME?

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/031336.php

 

Maybin should be fine so this may be moot, but any thoughts of batting him 9th? Puts our highest .obp from last year at #1 and #2. Plus once the lineup rolls over Maybin's right back in the mix.

 

 

Dunno how great this lineup analysis tool is... but they approximate 40 more runs just on that move alone.

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/031336.php

 

Maybin should be fine so this may be moot, but any thoughts of batting him 9th? Puts our highest .obp from last year at #1 and #2. Plus once the lineup rolls over Maybin's right back in the mix.

 

 

Dunno how great this lineup analysis tool is... but they approximate 40 more runs just on that move alone.

 

I don't think Maybin is going to have any trouble getting on base, though. He may not put the ball in play as much as we like, but I also think he's going to get his fair share of walks.

 

While pre-season win/loss projections are fun, this team may be the most unpredictable in the league. It could go in so many directions, positive and negitive.

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/031336.php

 

Maybin should be fine so this may be moot, but any thoughts of batting him 9th? Puts our highest .obp from last year at #1 and #2. Plus once the lineup rolls over Maybin's right back in the mix.

 

 

Dunno how great this lineup analysis tool is... but they approximate 40 more runs just on that move alone.

 

I definitely think somethings borked with that.

 

Jeremy Hermida has a .348 OBP/.440 SLG in that.

 

Maybin has a .357 OBP/.434 SLG. 6 points less SLG but 9 more OBP.

 

Hell, McPherson hitting #3 fills out three spots in the top 6. That's with a .329 OBP/.439 SLG, only ahead of the pitchers in term of OPS.

 

I do think hitting pitcher 8th is effective though, especially with our slg-filled line up. But our only player that fits that mold really is Amezaga (And Baker if he falls down to the .700 OPS range).

P-Record of 97-65. Good for #1 in the NL east going by PECOTA :cool

 

On the Sun-Sentinel blog Juan Carlos Rodriguez said Baseball Prospectus has us going 71-91 and the way he wrote his blog entry it he makes it seem as if they used PECOTA in their projections.. so what gives?

 

http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports_baseb...m.html#comments

 

My updated W / L record taking into account Emilio over Dallas / Gabby is 80 wins.

P-Record of 97-65. Good for #1 in the NL east going by PECOTA :cool

 

On the Sun-Sentinel blog Juan Carlos Rodriguez said Baseball Prospectus has us going 71-91 and the way he wrote his blog entry it he makes it seem as if they used PECOTA in their projections.. so what gives?

 

http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports_baseb...m.html#comments

 

My updated W / L record taking into account Emilio over Dallas / Gabby is 80 wins.

BP has severe injuries to our starters, with JJ going like 140, Volstad 150, Miller 120, etc. Meyer is pitching like 150 innings, Sinkbiel 50, Vanden Hurk 50, Trahern 50, etc, in their projections.

 

So basically, if 2 of the Marlins starters get injured and miss 40 starts combined, they are going to lose 90 games. I think this can be said with every team in baseball. NNY is actually more accurate, as he is giving Badenhop a bunch of innings (110), and expecting likely 170-205 inning performances from Nolasco, Johnson, Volstad, and a very very fair 280 innings from Sanchez/Miller.

 

This team blows past 71.