For all the complaining and harsh words about what transpired with Joe Nelson last off-season, the result on a number of levels (especially with Kiki in the mix) worked out pretty well for the Fish. I hate to put a hex on anything but the Marlins record when it comes to reclamation projects has been remarkable going back a number of years and even with a Scott Proctor in there prove they aren't infallible, I have to believe they already have their eye on another guy or two or three who they can slot in at small money. Besides, if you're hung up on the Marlins' payroll situation and who isn't, if you get a sandwich pick (or worse two) it's going to cost money to sign him/them, money that perhaps would be better off allocated to the parent club's payroll in 2010.

 

Yes you have to prepare for the future and feed the organization from the bottom up but so long as we are getting the requisite number of draft picks we'll be fine, especially if Nick Johnson were offered arbitration and stepped in a gopher hole all in one day, which seems a higher likelihood with him than most. Maybe Johnson's injuries are just a mirage, I'm sure there's some way of proving he's not been injured more than most but it does "seem" that's not the case. At his price point in arbitration I don't think it's worth the risk but that's just me.

 

It's crazy how often that works.

 

But there's a difference in that Joe Nelson had no positive track record in the bigs and Kiko had a damn good one but with an injury that kept him out 2008.

For all the complaining and harsh words about what transpired with Joe Nelson last off-season, the result on a number of levels (especially with Kiki in the mix) worked out pretty well for the Fish. I hate to put a hex on anything but the Marlins record when it comes to reclamation projects has been remarkable going back a number of years and even with a Scott Proctor in there prove they aren't infallible, I have to believe they already have their eye on another guy or two or three who they can slot in at small money. Besides, if you're hung up on the Marlins' payroll situation and who isn't, if you get a sandwich pick (or worse two) it's going to cost money to sign him/them, money that perhaps would be better off allocated to the parent club's payroll in 2010.

 

Yes you have to prepare for the future and feed the organization from the bottom up but so long as we are getting the requisite number of draft picks we'll be fine, especially if Nick Johnson were offered arbitration and stepped in a gopher hole all in one day, which seems a higher likelihood with him than most. Maybe Johnson's injuries are just a mirage, I'm sure there's some way of proving he's not been injured more than most but it does "seem" that's not the case. At his price point in arbitration I don't think it's worth the risk but that's just me.

 

It's crazy how often that works.

 

But there's a difference in that Joe Nelson had no positive track record in the bigs and Kiko had a damn good one but with an injury that kept him out 2008.

 

Yeah, Joe Nelson is the Justin Miller, Lee Gardner, Brian Sanches, ect of the world. Decent talent levels that pitched way over their heads for us and came crashing down later.

 

Kiko is a proven commodity. While he's not a "sub-2 ERA guy" like he finished in 2009, he has proven throughout his career that he is an above average reliever.

 

The only reason I can think of that you wouldn't bring Kiko back is you know something about his health, or that you fear that with the IP toll (Career high for him, and that's after coming back from an injury) plus the fact he's coming off an injury and was injured this past season, that you think he'll be injured a good portion next season even if he's "healthy" now.

I'm not writing off the fact that he might throw some good innings, if healthy. It's the question of his health that worries me. Labrum tears are very serious business. Successful recoveries are in the minority and have been dependent upon the severity and nature of the tear. Obviously none of us are informed enough to know this, but based on his slow recovery (he had at least one setback), I'm not too optimistic.

 

He also has a history of hiding his injuries, which makes his future even more questionable.

 

I'm not saying that he won't earn his paycheck, but it certainly would be a risk. For a cost conscious team like the Marlins, it might not be worth it.

 

 

This is fair. I'd much rather have Calero + Sanchez over Nunez + Lindstrom, if I had to choose between one of those groups. Nunez and Lindstrom would have at least some trade value, a starter can be worth much more to the team, and I have a mancrush on Calero's K/9.

 

if this were to happen, why not try sanchez as a closer. if he had limited innings than he would have less of a chance to get injured.

The only reason I can think of that you wouldn't bring Kiko back is you know something about his health, or that you fear that with the IP toll (Career high for him, and that's after coming back from an injury) plus the fact he's coming off an injury and was injured this past season, that you think he'll be injured a good portion next season even if he's "healthy" now.

 

Yep. That's the piece of the puzzle the fans are missing. The health factor. If there is any doubt, no arbitration.

 

But if they're healthy, it's inexcusable not offer Kiko, and skeptical for Nick Johnson.

No arbitration offered by the Marlins to any of their 4 free agents Johnson, Gload, Calero and Donnelly.

I think it's somewhat risky to offer Nick Johnson arbitration if you don't want him back, because the rumors I've been hearing say that he wants a 2-year deal, and teams are balking at that length due to his long injury history. So he might take the 6 million or whatever from the Marlins and just try again next year to get a better offer.

 

But I don't see the risk with Calero. For the value he had to us in 2009, $2-2.5 million is an absolute bargain. It's also not a certainty that he even takes the arbitration, since I'm pretty confident that someone will make him a better offer, as relievers are always in demand. So if he leaves, you get a draft pick. If he stays, you get a quality reliever that ate a lot of innings last year and saved us more than once (for basically league-average salary).

Man, I really wanted to give NJ arbi, but I understand why they didn't.

Marlins being the MARLINS

Ok, so looking at things, as they are.

Our locks for the pen are looking like: 1 of Lindstrom/Nunez (anyone think they keep both?), Meyer, Sanches, Badenhop...Hunter Jones?

 

I'm kinda worried about this area of the team. Meyer probably had a career year last year, and I definitely do not see Brian Sanches coming close to repeating what he did last year.

 

Who should we sign? (realistically)

 

EDIT: Should we bring Pinto back?

Relievers out of options:

 

Meyer, Nunez, Pinto, Sanches, and possibly Lindstrom, and RVH if he's a reliever and not a starter.

 

The only player missing from that list that's a lock is badenhop. And bam, there's 7, full bullpen.

 

Since both Tank and Jones have options I imagine they're in AAA unless Pinto is shipped.

 

We then have a ton of AAA arms that are either MLB ready or near to it (I think Tim Wood has already shown he can be average at least, then there's also Tucker, Leroux, Ceda, Beunte all on the 40 man plus others).

 

In other words, we really don't have a need to give anyone a MLB deal, because the ones we can afford, our MILB options will likely be just as effective. It'll be back to picking up off the MILB pile. Who from there? That's completely up to the Marlins scouting department to decide, because about a million or so guys can put up good numbers in AAA as relievers without being able to back it up at the major league level.

Man, I really wanted to give NJ arbi, but I understand why they didn't.

 

 

I agree, and probably for the same reasons. But then I think of another guy that was getting pretty "injury prone" and we gave him a huge 1 year contract with special funds. That worked out pretty well for us, and him. But then circumstances are very different now, including the way we do payroll. "Payroll will not exceed income." It's a pretty self-explanatory, straightforward way of doing things.

They should also note that income =/= revenue, since that's what everyone whines about and forgets that it actually costs money to run a baseball team.

We knew they weren't staying, but we should've at least offered arbitration to get those sandwich picks.

Those high picks are too expensive to sign.