November 30, 200916 yr MLB.com http://joefrisaro.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/11/leaning_against_salary_arbitra.html If Nick Johnson and Kiko Calero sign elsewhere in free agency, it doesn't look like the Marlins will receive draft pick compensation in return. The Marlins are leaning against offering arbitration to both Type B free agents. Tuesday is the deadline to extend arbitration to qualifying free agents. What offering arbitration would mean is if either of these players opt to sign with another club, the Marlins would receive a compensatory pick in the 2010 First-Year Player Draft. The choice would be a compensatory one, between the first and second rounds. Johnson, the 31-year-old first baseman, made $5.5 million in 2009. If arbitration is to be extended to him, the figure would be higher, and the Marlins won't take the risk that the veteran would accept it. Free agents have until Dec. 7 to decide if they will accept arbitration. Calero was a bargain at $500,000 in 2009, but the right-handed reliever is looking at a raise to perhaps more than $2 million on the open market. The Marlins project to have a modest payroll in 2010, remaining close to the $36 million it worked with this year. The South Florida SunSentinel reported the payroll will rise to close to $40 million. MLB.com has heard it will be about the same as in 2009, give or take a couple of million.
November 30, 200916 yr Johnson I can understand, but why not Calero? Is it really that big of a deal if he takes the $2 million from us in arbitration? He was our workhorse last year.
November 30, 200916 yr God forbid we keep our good players. Hate the team having such dreadful money constraints, it holds us back from being a true contender.
November 30, 200916 yr It's not that surprising to me. How many of our bullpen arms the past few seasons have gone on to have back to back good seasons? Once you've compiled that list, tell me how many of them have been reclamation projects like Calero.
November 30, 200916 yr Can't we have a gentleman's agreement with both players where we offer it but they don't accept? Seems like a boneheaded move to me, not that it's a surprise though.
November 30, 200916 yr Why is everyone acting like this is a huge surprise or something? They won't be here next year. I thought that was pretty well-known...
November 30, 200916 yr We knew they weren't staying, but we should've at least offered arbitration to get those sandwich picks.
November 30, 200916 yr Why is everyone acting like this is a huge surprise or something? They won't be here next year. I thought that was pretty well-known... It's not about them being here, it's about the draft picks Although if Kiko only makes 2 mil I don't see why you don't do that and let him replace one of the arb bp arms
November 30, 200916 yr I don't think either would accept Kiko because he can get a much better offer with other teams NJ because he is looking for a long term deal
November 30, 200916 yr Well, let's hypothetical this. Let's say Johnson gets $6 million in arbitration Let's say Calero would get $2 million. We're assuming payroll is $40 million max. If Johnson were to accept, the only ramification is having to trade Cantu and playing Sanchez/Boner at 3B versus Cantu/Sanchez at the corners. If Calero accepts, you have to get rid of both Nunez and Lindstrom instead of just one, your pen is Calero, Sanchez, Meyer, Badenhop, Vanden Hurk, Jones, and Wood/Leroux/Penn/Tucker/etc..., If you're totally confident they are both healthy, I don't see a big deal as we can relatively interchange them with Cantu/RP. If they have injury concerns (or more injury concerns than Cantu/Other RP), it's just a disappointing loss of picks 30-45ish. So if they accept.... L Coghlan 2B/LF R Maybin CF L Johnson 1B R Hanley SS L Baker C R Ross LF/RF then it's some sort of whoever is playing of R G. Sanchez 3B R Carroll LF/RF S Boner 2B/3B X Some veteran 3B instead of veteran 1B/LF I have been musing all offseason SP - same BP - Calero, Sanchez, Meyer, Badenhop, Vanden Hurk, Jones(Tank), Leroux/Wood/Penn If NJ accepts, and Calero doesn't, just sub in Nunez or Lindstrom above for Calero. If they both don't accept it's the standard R Maybin CF L Coghlan 2B/LF R Hanley SS R Cantu 3B L Baker C R Ross LF/RF then it's some sort of whoever is playing of R G. Sanchez 1B R Carroll LF/RF S Boner 2B L Some veteran 1B/LF but we'll have three picks in the top 40-45, instead of one pick. ----------- Is there really a difference with any of this, EXCEPT (1) Fears of Nick Johnson and Kiko Calero health, compared to Cantu and Nunez/Lindstrom (2) Gaby playing a lot of 3B instead of a lot of 1B Those are the only two concerns I have. I hope this post cleared up the "money" argument. It's Health and Gaby playing 3B issues that dominate if we should offer arbitration to the two of them. If you're cool with both of those, then I guess get pissed we're not offering and not potentially getting the picks. ------ In case anyone is wondering who are last three sandwich picks have been (for AJ, Pavano, and Urbina) Chris Coghlan Sean West Ryan Tucker "Awesome"
November 30, 200916 yr i'd love to see that first team you listed play next year (healthy, hopefully)... the marlins, after they got njohnson last year, were so god damn fun to watch
December 1, 200916 yr Why is everyone acting like this is a huge surprise or something? They won't be here next year. I thought that was pretty well-known... It's not about them being here, it's about the draft picks Although if Kiko only makes 2 mil I don't see why you don't do that and let him replace one of the arb bp arms I agree. Although I have a different opinion, and that's that I have no idea why there seems to be no interest in bringing Donnelly back. Donnellly won't be making much, and he's had success before, and it looked like he returned to form last year. I'm for keeping 1 of the 2 arb. guys, and bringing back Donnelly, who's cheaper than Kiko.
December 1, 200916 yr Donnelly will be 39 years old, posted his highest K rate since 2004, and was very 'lucky' with home runs (25 IP sample size woo). The chance of Donnelly putting up a ERA north of 4 is rather high.
December 1, 200916 yr It's kind of interesting to think, sign (or arbitrate) Calero at under a $2mil deal, and you have both Nunez and Lindstrom to trade who will each bring back a "Ryan Tucker." in A+/AA ball. And your bottom line financially hasn't changed at all. Calero Sanches Meyer Vanden Hurk Badenhop H. Jones Leroux/Wood/Penn/Tucker With the option of putting Anibal or West in the bullpen, you will be getting some sort of arm back for Uggla, and the typical Beinfest magic in cheap FA. Pretty interesting. It's trusting the bullpen a lot, but it really probably wouldn't be any significant difference from keeping Nunez/Lindstrom to rack up saves. And the inverse, if Kiko declines arbitration, you just keep one of Lindstrom/Nunez, have the same pen behind it, and now you have pick #35 in the draft. Is there any risk here? I can see it with Johnson, because you'd need him to be healthy and play 140 games. But with Calero. Any risk here?
December 1, 200916 yr I think they should offer them both. Johnson would probably be easy to trade to a team, this is me thinking teams would rather have him on a 1 year deal rather then a multi year deal.
December 1, 200916 yr i'd rather keep the picks. NJ is the one type of guy we dont have on our roster (high OBP) and we can swap him and Cantu and get an arm for Cantu. We made him and we can make more. No BP arm is worth 2mil on this team if he aint tha closer.
December 1, 200916 yr The thing is I seriously doubt either would accept arb. Both are getting looked at from other teams for longer and better contracts. Like ultimopain said before, I think a gentlemens agreement could be in order here. Those picks would be really important to a team like the Marlins.
December 1, 200916 yr Author I haven't bothered to run through the numbers yet to verify this, but here's my take: I dislike both Nunez and Lindstrom and don't think that they are nearly worth the combined $3.7 million it will require to pay them next season. I just don't think they are good pitchers and they are easily replaceable, especially at that cost. To me, it makes more sense to pay Calero $2 million or so than keep both of them because he is just that much better of a pitcher. With that remaining money, I also wouldn't mind seeing the Marlins give Donnelly a chance four a sum around the minimum. If the Marlins are serious about keeping a $40 million payroll, Lindstrom and Nunez are the most expendable pieces. I also wouldn't be opposed to dumping off Anibal Sanchez. The labrum tear is an indication that he might not be a wise investment, since he has had complications since the initial surgery. I don't think it's worth spending $1 to $2 million on him since he might be spending a large portion of 2010 on the DL or flat out not pitching well. Essentially, I like the idea of dropping the deadweights of Lindstrom, Nunez, and Sanchez while resigning Calero and possibly keeping Nick Johnson.
December 1, 200916 yr Pengie, I admit that often I let a player's gamelog be my guide but that's just me - if you look at Sanchez' even his 3.87 ERA for the season doesn't speak to how well he pitched after coming back the third week of August through the end of the season including two starts and fifteen innings against Philly yielding only a single run. His ERA for that period was around 2.70. I wouldn't be so quick to write him off. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?playerId=6472
December 1, 200916 yr Author I'm not writing off the fact that he might throw some good innings, if healthy. It's the question of his health that worries me. Labrum tears are very serious business. Successful recoveries are in the minority and have been dependent upon the severity and nature of the tear. Obviously none of us are informed enough to know this, but based on his slow recovery (he had at least one setback), I'm not too optimistic. He also has a history of hiding his injuries, which makes his future even more questionable. I'm not saying that he won't earn his paycheck, but it certainly would be a risk. For a cost conscious team like the Marlins, it might not be worth it.
December 1, 200916 yr I'm not writing off the fact that he might throw some good innings, if healthy. It's the question of his health that worries me. Labrum tears are very serious business. Successful recoveries are in the minority and have been dependent upon the severity and nature of the tear. Obviously none of us are informed enough to know this, but based on his slow recovery (he had at least one setback), I'm not too optimistic. He also has a history of hiding his injuries, which makes his future even more questionable. I'm not saying that he won't earn his paycheck, but it certainly would be a risk. For a cost conscious team like the Marlins, it might not be worth it. This is fair. I'd much rather have Calero + Sanchez over Nunez + Lindstrom, if I had to choose between one of those groups. Nunez and Lindstrom would have at least some trade value, a starter can be worth much more to the team, and I have a mancrush on Calero's K/9.
December 1, 200916 yr Calero was a reclamation project, who worked out for us this year. However, due to his past health and the fact we may have overworked him this year, I'm not sure I want him for over 2 mill. The offer should be made though because if he doesn't take it we can get compensation and if he does 2 mill isn't THAT bad.
December 1, 200916 yr For all the complaining and harsh words about what transpired with Joe Nelson last off-season, the result on a number of levels (especially with Kiki in the mix) worked out pretty well for the Fish. I hate to put a hex on anything but the Marlins record when it comes to reclamation projects has been remarkable going back a number of years and even with a Scott Proctor in there prove they aren't infallible, I have to believe they already have their eye on another guy or two or three who they can slot in at small money. Besides, if you're hung up on the Marlins' payroll situation and who isn't, if you get a sandwich pick (or worse two) it's going to cost money to sign him/them, money that perhaps would be better off allocated to the parent club's payroll in 2010. Yes you have to prepare for the future and feed the organization from the bottom up but so long as we are getting the requisite number of draft picks we'll be fine, especially if Nick Johnson were offered arbitration and stepped in a gopher hole all in one day, which seems a higher likelihood with him than most. Maybe Johnson's injuries are just a mirage, I'm sure there's some way of proving he's not been injured more than most but it does "seem" that's not the case. At his price point in arbitration I don't think it's worth the risk but that's just me.
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