what kind of deal would it take to sign cantu to an extension. i'm sure marlinslou can think up of a comparable deal

It would take something happening to Logan Morrison

It would take something happening to Logan Morrison

 

 

cantu could play 3rd since it'll take a while til dominguez is ready

Cantu would negotiate for at least a 3 yr contratct since he is hitting the prime yrs of his career. The fish will take a wait and see approach they always take. This means no contract until after the 2010 season.

Cantu would negotiate for at least a 3 yr contratct since he is hitting the prime yrs of his career. The fish will take a wait and see approach they always take. This means no contract until after the 2010 season.

 

 

3 years $15-20 million??

I'm pretty sure Lou would know the answer to this but my best guess is, if he continues on his tear of great hitting and we make the playoffs then he'd probably love to resign a 2 or 3 year deal for about 9 or 10 MM per year. I'd love to sign him for another 2 years so we don't have to rush Dominguez to the majors so he can develop better and Cantu has been one of our most valuable assets for the past 3 seasons.

I'd say Cantu would be looking for a 3 to 4 year deal worth 7 to 8 million per year, this is only if he gets to around .280 25 HR's 100 RBI''s

 

However, very doubtful that they would resign Cantu, simply because we are still on a tight budget, and there are going to be some quick fills available after the year such as Feliz, Chavez, Wigginton, etc...

 

However, if Cantu would take a 2 year deal at about 10 million, I think it would be done after the year.

Longterm contracts are in turmoil right now as no one wants to guarantee money to the "mid level guys" anymore, which is what Cantu is. Mark DeRosa, who is much older, just signed a 2/$12 contract. Casey Blake last year signed a 3/$17 deal. Mark Teahen just signed a 3/$14 year deal. Polanco got a 3/$18 million deal. Then there is Abreu who just got 2/$19, which has to represent the "high" to all of this if someone absolutely falls in love with Cantu or he continues with this tear over the whole year. Then of course, there is the onslaught of one year deals with Nick Johnson, Aubrey Huff, Russ Branyan, etc, who are making $3-5 million basically.

 

So how does he stack up to that? Cantu has a nice track the last 3 years with the Marlins, has as good or better production than all of them besides Abreu, will be 29 at the time of contract so it'll be his prime years, and he'll "probably" be a Type B free agent so no one will have to give the Marlins compensation. There is a lot to like with him despite the defense. A team looking for a reliable veteran option can do much worse.

 

I would say, he is looking for a minimum 3-4 years, and probably starts off asking around $8-10 million a season over 4+ years. If the market continues to stay low, maybe it goes down to something like the Blake/Polanco at 3/$18. I'd say when all is said and done, it's a 3 year deal over $7 million annually, that has a vesting 4th year option. He'll get more than Blake/Polanco, but not to the $9+ million a year range like Abreau. That sounds about right.

 

----

 

As for the Marlins, I see a 0% chance of the organization signing him with Gaby/Logan fighting over 1B, and the team acquiring a "cheap veteran" 3B for a year with hopes Dominguez is ready Summer 2011, or April 2012. Furthermore, Smolinski is a pretty legit prospect in A ball and he may find himself at 3B during the end of that Cantu contract. Let alone, maybe Coghlan takes over 3B next year and this team keeps Uggla, uses Bonifacio, or finds another defensive centric 2B.

 

Basically, I see a lot of infield corner depth. Guaranteeing money to Cantu wouldn't be that smart for where the organization is, even if he's a reasonable free agent sign.

Longterm contracts are in turmoil right now as no one wants to guarantee money to the "mid level guys" anymore, which is what Cantu is. Mark DeRosa, who is much older, just signed a 2/$12 contract. Casey Blake last year signed a 3/$17 deal. Mark Teahen just signed a 3/$14 year deal. Polanco got a 3/$18 million deal. Then there is Abreu who just got 2/$19, which has to represent the "high" to all of this if someone absolutely falls in love with Cantu or he continues with this tear over the whole year. Then of course, there is the onslaught of one year deals with Nick Johnson, Aubrey Huff, Russ Branyan, etc, who are making $3-5 million basically.

 

So how does he stack up to that? Cantu has a nice track the last 3 years with the Marlins, has as good or better production than all of them besides Abreu, will be 29 at the time of contract so it'll be his prime years, and he'll "probably" be a Type B free agent so no one will have to give the Marlins compensation. There is a lot to like with him despite the defense. A team looking for a reliable veteran option can do much worse.

 

I would say, he is looking for a minimum 3-4 years, and probably starts off asking around $8-10 million a season over 4+ years. If the market continues to stay low, maybe it goes down to something like the Blake/Polanco at 3/$18. I'd say when all is said and done, it's a 3 year deal over $7 million annually, that has a vesting 4th year option. He'll get more than Blake/Polanco, but not to the $9+ million a year range like Abreau. That sounds about right.

 

----

 

As for the Marlins, I see a 0% chance of the organization signing him with Gaby/Logan fighting over 1B, and the team acquiring a "cheap veteran" 3B for a year with hopes Dominguez is ready Summer 2011, or April 2012. Furthermore, Smolinski is a pretty legit prospect in A ball and he may find himself at 3B during the end of that Cantu contract. Let alone, maybe Coghlan takes over 3B next year and this team keeps Uggla, uses Bonifacio, or finds another defensive centric 2B.

 

Basically, I see a lot of infield corner depth. Guaranteeing money to Cantu wouldn't be that smart for where the organization is, even if he's a reasonable free agent sign.

 

 

you're probably right about him not returning. but i'm hoping that cantu and marlins FO stay loyal to each other and get something done since the marlins did give cantu a chance when everyone was saying he was done. maybe a 2 year deal around 13 million (like the derosa contract) because hanley and cantu are one of the better 3-4 combinations in the league.

 

EDIT: can't believe i just wrote the words "loyal" and "marlins front office" in the same sentence.

Is Dominguez really that sure of a thing at this point that he can be counted on as being the 3B of the future?

 

I understand that he is a #2 or #3 prospect in the organization, but I would like to see him have a decent year in AA before 3B should be reserved for him. He had some awesome A numbers but I think the Marlins need to monitor his AA numbers closely this season and make a decision with Cantu accordingly. Remember that guys like Hermida and Stokes were considered to have positions locked down and that didn't turn out as planned.

 

Also, Cantu could be a possibility at 2B as well if Uggla departs. Personally I would love to have Coghlan move there but I'm not sure that the FO feels the same way. I think seeing him at third base might be even more unlikely.

He'll need to show he can hit in AA for a year and probably more.

 

His defense at 3rd is terrific so no issues there.

 

 

all of our other 3B options currently are sort of a mess defensively.

I agree with the last two comments on Dominguez . His glove maybe MLB ready but he would eaten alive at the plate . I think the Marlins should attempt to sign Cantu to a 3 year deal particularly if signing Uggla is not in the cards. We all know Uggla has his flaws but he provides power , I think if we lose Cantu and Uggla we are going to have problems scoring runs.

He'll need to show he can hit in AA for a year and probably more.

 

His defense at 3rd is terrific so no issues there.

 

 

all of our other 3B options currently are sort of a mess defensively.

 

Absolutely, which is why you stopgap 2011 and 2011 only, and see if in that offseason you need to go out and get a 3B or if Dominguez is the future. The problem is, Cantu will require 3, maybe 4 years based on his age and performance. That signing works out for a year or two, then becomes atrocious if Dominguez develops into a starting calibre player. Which really isn't that unlikely. And even if he doesn't, you owe it to yourself as an organization to give him a legitimate shot.

 

Really, they should just keep Uggla for 2011 and then let him walk for the two first rounders in 2012, move Coghlan to 3B, keep Ross and move him to LF, then bring up big boy to play RF. Then in 2012, finally shift Coghlan over to 2B when Dominguez is ready. Seems insane playing Coghlan away from 2B for 2 1/2 years, but he's a big boy. That arrangement, just makes the most sense for us. It fills all our needs from within and doesn't hook the organization with anyone longterm eating up resources, i.e. a Cantu contract which is entirely unnecessary.

While Dominguez's bat is not a sure thing, as Lou already stated, there's Smolinski a level behind him. The FO played him at 3b basically all year last season, so I think they view him as Dominguez's warrantee.

 

Smolinski's bat is a lot safer than Doming but he doesn't have the glove or upside Doming does. I really really like Smolinski though.

 

So it's not just "It's Dominguez's future position" but also "If he doesn't work out, we have Smolinski too"

 

At this point I think Smolinski is more or less the fail safe for 2B, 3B, and LF. Whichever we need when he is ready is where he'll be.

I pondered this on another board, about the possibility of converting Smolinski to catcher(like the Mets did with Josh Thole or the Marlins contemplated doing to Willingham).

While Dominguez's bat is not a sure thing, as Lou already stated, there's Smolinski a level behind him. The FO played him at 3b basically all year last season, so I think they view him as Dominguez's warrantee.

 

Smolinski's bat is a lot safer than Doming but he doesn't have the glove or upside Doming does. I really really like Smolinski though.

 

So it's not just "It's Dominguez's future position" but also "If he doesn't work out, we have Smolinski too"

 

At this point I think Smolinski is more or less the fail safe for 2B, 3B, and LF. Whichever we need when he is ready is where he'll be.

 

I agree. He's a very legit prospect and while it may be a 2013 ETA, that would be year 3 in a Cantu contract and if you have to give Cantu 4 years, you're wasting resources at that point because Cantu isn't THAT productive (Career .783 OPS, Rounds to around .800 as a Marlin, and atrocious defensively at 3B which would be the position we would sign him longterm) where it's unreasonable to think Dominguez and Smolinski can't man the fort. The Marlins should only sign players for longterm positions of need where the organization has no depth, or who are plus plus performers and can't be replaced despite whatever coming up the system. Right now, I'd say starting pitching is the only area where we have no longterm organizational depth (pitching prospects are not as predictable as hitting prospects). As an organization, you have to be very confident in Stanton, Maybin, Morrison, Coghlan, Dominguez, Gaby, Petersen, Cousins, Smolinski, and Skipworth to fill all the spots around Hanley in the next 1-3 years, even if a stopgap player or three are required on 1 year deals. i.e., the Marlins should pay Cody and Uggla's 6th year arbitration next year and then let them walk to ease all the kids into the lineup one by one.

 

We have only one player that fits the combination of getting expensive, is a plus player, and the guys behind him in the organization probably cannot replace his production adequately enough. That guy is Ricky Nolasco. He's the only guy on the team I'd consider for a 3-4 year contract after the 2010 season, and he's going to need to show up with 200 innings this year to justify that. Cantu? No way. That would be completely irresponsible despite the fact he is very solid and useful. It's better to let them walk and deal with the consequences then have an anchor two years down the road.

It would take a whole new front office. With Stanton and Morrison up and coming, with Coghlan being an infielder, and with the depth of corner IF in the organization, I can't expect Cantu to stay all that long. I would expect (assuming the team stays in competition) to see Cantu and maybe even Uggla kept for another arbitration year, but not in the long term plans.

This is it for Cantu, he'll have 6 years of service time after the season

This is it for Cantu, he'll have 6 years of service time after the season

 

 

So he will. Then he is gone and we will see Coghlan in the infield

This is it for Cantu, he'll have 6 years of service time after the season

 

 

So he will. Then he is gone and we will see Coghlan in the infield

After the year, the general break down is

 

Free Agent - Cantu, Robertson, Helms, Lamb

6th year - Uggla, Ross

5th year - Nolasco (was a super 2), Nunez, Anibal, Paulino, Pinto, Veras, Hensley

4th year - Badenhop, Carroll, A. Miller, Tankersley (assuming enough playing time for all of them, which is likely if they are up for 1/3rd the season)

 

Everyone else is club controlled goodness for 2011

three years, 7 per. and a place for him to play, lol