Huntsman will not get the nomination, but even if he does he's no match for Obama. It's incredibly hard to defeat an incumbent president. You need to be special to be able to achieve that or things need to be going very poorly. An all time great politician like Reagan or Bill Clinton can do it. I only fear Romney, but he won't be getting his party's nomination.

 

 

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the economy is going back into the shitter to deal with prices, especially gas and food prices, and moribund consumer spending that results from it. Double dipping.

yeah I'm beginning to wonder if anyone even wants the job. I noticed Gingrich just called Paul Ryan's medicare plan "right-wing social engineering". So like Romney he basically backs the mandate in Obama's healthcare law - just wants it imposed by all 50 states equally instead of by washington.

 

yikes.

 

WSJ

 

 

 

and now Huckabee has announced he's not running.

Draft Jeb :-)

Obama doesn't need a Ronald Reagan to defeat him. His handling of the economy has been dismal and seems to be received that way by independent voters. A month ago his approval rating with independents was only 35%. Obviously the Bin Laden stuff has bumped that up, but when people start feeling the effects of inflation they will begin to forget OBL.

 

Obama is definitely beatable, but the Republicans literally have nobody. It would be even easier if the GOP ran somebody with George W. Bush's foreign policy in 2000, because Obama's occupation of Afghanistan is turning off a lot of people.

 

 

Agreed, but like you said none of the Repubs that can get the nomination can beat him. You're right that inflation can be a huge X factor here. We will have to wait and see what happens with that. My view is this: no high inflation, no double dip and Obama wins against this crop of Repblicans unless they nominate Romney. Also recall that presidential elections are much about your GOTV infrastructure. Obama is strong there.

Draft Jeb :-)

 

 

I was thinking you were a Newt guy. Or has that ship sailed?

I think that if the GOP put all of their resources behind marketing Gary Johnson, he would win the general. The only thing that would make this difficult is the fact that he's pro-choice in certain instances.

 

 

Political positions aren't the only things people take into account when voting. Gary Johnson has an incredibly weak demeanor. Something about the way he spoke in that first debate made me almost pity him. It really is terrible.

My point is that I disagree with your claim that it is extremely difficult to unseat an incumbent president. I realize that the last two have been two-termers, but the circumstances really vary on a case to case basis.

 

Things aren't bad for Obama as they were for Jimmy Carter yet in the eyes of the public, but it definitely won't take a Ronald Reagan; it will, however, take someone with more appeal than Tim Pawlenty.

 

I certainly agree that Obama is on course to secure a second term, but if that happens it has less to do with Obama's popularity and more to do with the weakness of his opponent. However, if the economy does deteriorate to a certain extent (which it is certainly capable of doing), I think EricWeiner is right and even a Pawlenty could beat Obama.

 

And I don't think that Obama's GOTV performance will be as strong this time around, because a lot of the people who bought into his "message" last time feel cheated. In 2008, people were not just voting against Bush (McCain by extension), but also voting for Obama. I think in 2012, you will see more of the "lesser of two evils" mentality. That's usually what it means when his approval ratings are below 50% and he still manages to beat his opponent.

 

 

When was the last time an incumbent president beaten by a mediocre candidate? Things would have to be going Jimmy Carter bad for that to happen. I highly doubt that will be the case next year. Incumbents are really hard to beat.

I agree about Santorum, not so much about Pawlenty. Cain, to me, is somewhat of an enigma. I see him as a pretty terrible orator (that 'United States of Europe' and his catchy lists are ridiculous) but his track record seems good, but I have such a hard time wrapping my head around it since the way he speaks is so terrible.

 

Gary Johnson just looks like a really really nice guy. Maybe I was just overthinking it, but everything - from that terribly weak fist pound to the way he timidly put his mouth towards the mic - just screams pushover. I didnt really like any of the candidates in that debate (except maybe Ron Paul, who seems to have the ability to recite laws verbatim). I'll probably end up voting for Romney, honestly. The healthcare position doesnt really bother me as much as it does to some.

Draft Jeb :-)

 

 

I was thinking you were a Newt guy. Or has that ship sailed?

 

No, I was a Huckabee guy, but he isn't running. I just think Newt is a solid idea guy - a perfect fit as an advisor or cabinet secretary.

Draft Jeb :-)

 

 

Didn't Columba have a little problem with avoiding customers on some isht she bought in Europe?

 

I somehow can't picture Jeb subjecting her to intense scrutiny - there's more where that came from.........

Draft Jeb :-)

 

 

Didn't Columba have a little problem with avoiding customers on some isht she bought in Europe?

 

I somehow can't picture Jeb subjecting her to intense scrutiny - there's more where that came from.........

 

 

I we can elect Clinton, Bush and Obama - then some customs stuff and a daughter with some troubles is not a barrier.

What scandal issues did Obama and Bush have?

What scandal issues did Obama and Bush have?

 

Obama is a Kenyan who pals around with terrorists.

Bush fell asleep at a meeting.

$500k credit line at Tiffany's is pretty baller. But it also means that Newt is f***ing whipped.