The sky is not falling.

 

A couple of tough losses does not the season demolish.

 

A team without tough losses, bad luck, offensive or defensive "holes," bad outings by starters, bullpen hiccups, injuries, individual or team hitting slumps, clusters of errors, fielding misjudgments, throwing mistakes, base running screw-ups or bad ump calls has never existed and would still lose 20 or 30 games if it ever did.

 

Some recent history is in order:

 

Average minimum number of wins to make the playoffs for the 15 years '96 through '10:

 

87.93. Which is a .543 winning percentage.

 

Largest minimum number of wins to make the playoffs for the 15 years '96 through '10:

 

94. Which is a .580 winning percentage.

 

Smallest minimum number of wins to make the playoffs for the 15 years '96 through '10:

 

83. Which is a .512 winning percentage.

 

Year/Minimum wins to make playoffs/teams with min wins which didn't make playoffs due to division or league:

 

'10 90 SDP

'09 87 TEX FLA SFG

'08 89 NYY NYM

'07 85 SDP NYM SEA DET

'06 83 PHI LAA CHW TOR BOS

'05 82 NYM FLA PHI CLE MIN OAK

'04 92

'03 88 SEA

'02 94

'01 88 SFG CHC

'00 87 CLE

'99 94 CIN

'98 88 TOR NYM SFG

'97 84 LAD NYM LAA

'96 88 MON

 

The Marlins are playing .613 ball after two tough losses. If they even come close to approximating that for the remaining ~80% of the season, they'll almost certainly be a playoff team.

 

Looked at another way, here's the average win percentage of all playoff teams for the 15 years '96 through '10:

 

'10 .576

'09 .581

'08 .574

'07 .566

'06 .569

'05 .575

'04 .594

'03 .588

'02 .612

'01 .595

'00 .576

'99 .602

'98 .601

'97 .569

'96 .567

 

15 year average: .583 (94.4 wins)

 

To play ~.583 ball to the end of the season and win 94 games, which has been enough to make the playoffs in all cases for the last 15 years with the single exception of Cincinnati in '99, the Marlins need to go 75-56. Which is only .573 ball.

 

They can lose an average of 4.27 games out of every 10 remaining games (and likely will, given the nature of baseball) and still be just fine.

 

Relax.

Who is saying that the sky is falling?

 

I just see some disappointment after losing a close game to an inferior team. Given the opportunities the Marlins had to win that game, I think it's a perfectly natural reaction.

 

I don't see why this scolding was necessary.

I second penguino, not throwing in the towel just a sh*tty way to lose to a team we should have beat especially with phils losing and braves gaining. Like I said in the post game, the wins are great and we are quite a few games over .500 but its going to be tight for the top spot and even the wild card.

I can see this year being one of those years where a 92 win team misses the playoffs. No sky is falling yet but if we do fall behind the Braves & Phillies by more than 3 or 4 we should start worrying, but only if that happens by August 15th.

Who says?

 

There are people all over various threads whining about everything imaginable.

 

They need to relax.

Who says?

 

There are people all over various threads whining about everything imaginable.

 

They need to relax.

 

They were doing that before the two game skid too. What's so bad about exposing certain flaws of the team? There are plenty of things that should be addressed regardless of the team dropping the last two.

 

And I think you are being way too hasty if I think that bitching about Wes Helms coincides with the belief that the sky is falling.

I agree the sky is not falling, however I am beginning to question the manager skills of Rodriguez.... He is not managing correctly. Case and point, Thursday, why pitch JJ into the seventh at over 100 pitches. Secondly why put in Dunn a day after pitching two innings the night before... He is overmanaging the bullpen in my opinion. Questionable pitnch hitting moves as well.

JJ had 99 when the inning started. He had just had a great inning. He's our best pitcher, and maybe the best in the league. Putting him in there to start the 7th was certainly the right move.

I'm not gonna sit here and act like its all bad when its just early May, but to address what the OP put: we didn't make the playoffs in '08 (when we had 84 wins), or ''09 (87 wins) so it just goes to show its not as likely as it may seem. Every win counts.

I agree the sky is not falling, however I am beginning to question the manager skills of Rodriguez.... He is not managing correctly. Case and point, Thursday, why pitch JJ into the seventh at over 100 pitches. Secondly why put in Dunn a day after pitching two innings the night before... He is overmanaging the bullpen in my opinion. Questionable pitnch hitting moves as well.

 

So you're complaining about leaving a starter in too long then complaining about overmanaging the pen? Which one is it?

 

And which pinch hitting moves are you talking about? I've had no problems at all with who he's thrown out there.

The sky isn't falling but failing to score the tying run in extras with a man on 3rd (and 1st) and no outs is an EPIC FAIL. That tying run should have scored at the very least. Even with 2nd and 3rd and 1 out, shoulda put the ball in play somehow. I missed the Omar AB but I watched the Helms failure which still leaves a bad taste

also. we should not be worrying about the phillies. they will win the division with their uber-rotation.

 

the team we do need to worry about is the braves. no team has made the playoffs finishing 3rd in the division.

there's not version of sayings that i hate more than "a _____ does not _____ make" or demolish, or whatever your end verb is. they're f***ing obnoxious.

What about when they say "doth"?

same feeling.

I can see this year being one of those years where a 92 win team misses the playoffs. No sky is falling yet but if we do fall behind the Braves & Phillies by more than 3 or 4 we should start worrying, but only if that happens by August 15th.

 

 

:BananaLlama