In February 2011 Loria said the 2012 payroll wouldn't be determined until after the 2011 season.

 

Aw, geez. He says that EVERY year. And it's true every year.

 

As I said earlier, ticket sales are ahead of expectations, the June slump had no effect.

 

They know now approximately how many season ticket packages will be sold. They know now about how much the stadium naming deal is going to generate. They know now about how much profit concessions are going to generate.

 

They have a pretty good idea RIGHT NOW what revenue is going to look like in '12, they just aren't saying anything to the public yet. No doubt their estimate will be refined as time goes on, but their philosophy is to spend everything they reasonably can on payroll. Loria hasn't superseded anything, they expect to be an average payroll team in '12 and going forward and have been saying that for years.

 

Barring some sort of calamity, they will be.

The MLB average payroll in 2011 is $93 million. Next year it'll likely be a bit over $95 million. If you expect Loria to increase payroll to $95 million (MLB average) you live in lala land. Expect a payroll between $75 million and $80 million. Just to avoid any misunderstanding, I have no problem with Loria if he spends $75 million next year. The issue I have in this thread is with your contention that the 2012 payroll will be league average ($95 million).

Youre looking it it the wrong way. Break mlb into 3 groups with 10 teams. 10 highest payroll, 10 middle payroll, 10 lowest payroll. The marlins will be somewhere in the middle group. I think they will be on the lower end of this group and if revenues permit they will spend more.

 

I still see miami as an event city. So attendance will be high in 2012 and drop down until the new norm is found. Itll be higher than it has been in JRS but we wont be seeing a full house every season all season.

I agree but a lot of people have brought this up and I dont think thats as much of an issue as some make it seem. My point is, no matter what, the profit will be so much greater than we have at the Dolphins' orange cavernous monstrosity.

how much do you believe they will jack up the prices in '12?

Make a trade for Colby Rasmus, please.

Make a trade for Colby Rasmus, please.

 

I've had enough with new center fielders this year.

However... I would approve of this one.

Who would you trade, Erick?

Make a trade for Colby Rasmus, please.

 

 

I don't think we have what it takes to acquire him. And honestly, I'm not sure it's worth it. His father seems like a nuisance.

The bottom line is that you gotta compete with the Phillies staff. I know that doesn't sound very fair, but that's the deal. If the Marlins stand pat, I don't see them challenging for the division next year. I know it sounds strange because I advocate trading Ricky Nolasco, but like I said, someone may get desperate and off you a super talent for him.

 

 

Well, no. The real bottom line is the have to compete with the Phillies as a team. They may not be bound for competitiveness in a few years, that's a very old team all around, and their offense is already mediocre. The offense is only going to get worse, making it easier to compete.

If you expect Loria to increase payroll to $95 million (MLB average) you live in lala land. Expect a payroll between $75 million and $80 million. Just to avoid any misunderstanding, I have no problem with Loria if he spends $75 million next year. The issue I have in this thread is with your contention that the 2012 payroll will be league average ($95 million).

 

The MLB average is now 92.86 million, but that's distorted upward a little by outliers like the Yankees. The median is now about 86.5 million. The middle 6 teams range from 85 to 93, the middle 8 from 76 to 104, the middle 10 from 71 to 105.

 

But, it's not my contention, it's not even necessarily the Marlins' contention, "average" is just shorthand for middle-of-the-road. Their exact words have varied. From "a middle-of-the-pack industry average payroll" to "at least in the mid-range" to "competitive."

 

All we know is that they want to spend their increased revenue on payroll. Sales are better than expected. Any number between 85 and 93 wouldn't be at all surprising.