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Baseball Prospectus' top 101 prospects


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http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16020

 

1. Matt Moore, LHP, Rays

2. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals

3. Mike Trout, OF, Angels

4. Jurickson Profar, SS, Rangers

5. Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves

6.Dylan Bundy, RHP, Orioles

7. Jesus Montero, C, Mariners

8. Manny Machado, SS, Orioles

9. Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pirates

10. Shelby Miller, RHP, Cardinals

11. Trevor Bauer, RHP, Diamondbacks

12. Miguel Sano, 3B, Twins

13. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pirates

14. Taijuan Walker, RHP, Mariners

15. Jacob Turner, RHP, Tigers

16. Travis D'Arnaud, C, Blue Jays

17. Francisco Lindor, SS, Indians

18. Gary Brown, OF, Giants

19. Wil Myers, OF, Royals

20. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies

21. Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Diamondbacks

22. Billy Hamilton, SS, Reds

23. Oscar Taveras, OF, Cardinals

24. Devin Mesoraco, C, Reds

25. Matt Harvey, RHP, Mets

26. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals

27. Bubba Starling, OF, Royals

28. Jake Marisnick, OF, Blue Jays

29. Manny Banuelos, LHP, Yankees

30. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Mets

31. Carlos Martinez, RHP, Cardinals

32. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox

33. Christian Yelich, OF, Marlins

34. Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Rockies

35. Danny Hultzen, LHP, Mariners

36. Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers

37. Archie Bradley, RHP, Diamondbacks

38. Yasmani Grandal, C, Padres

39. Michael Choice, OF, Athletics

40. Gary Sanchez, C, Yankees

41. Randall Delgado, RHP, Braves

42. Luis Heredia, RHP, Pirates

43. Josh Bell, OF, Pirates

44. Brett Jackson, OF, Cubs

45. Mike Olt, 3B, Rangers

46. Brandon Jacobs, OF, Red Sox

47. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Royals

48. Jarred Cosart, RHP, Astros

49. George Springer, OF, Astros

50. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Athletics

51. Trevor May, RHP, Phillies

52. Rymer Liriano, OF, Padres

53. Robbie Erlin, LHP, Padres

54. Daniel Norris, LHP, Blue Jays

55. Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Red Sox

56. Starling Marte, OF, Pirates

57. Jedd Gyorko, 3B, Padres

58. Cory Spangenberg, 2B, Padres

59. James Paxton, LHP, Mariners

60. A.J. Cole, RHP, Athletics

61. Wilin Rosario, C, Rockies

62. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Braves

63. Dellin Betances, RHP, Yankees

64. Brad Peacock, RHP, Athletics

65. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Rays

66. Javier Baez, SS, Cubs

67. Jean Segura, SS, Angels

68. Anthony Gose, OF, Blue Jays

69. Matt Adams, 1B, Cardinals

70. Zach Lee, RHP, Dodgers

71. Nick Castellanos, 3B, Tigers

72. Sonny Gray, RHP, Athletics

73. Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Astros

74. Joe Wieland, RHP, Padres

75. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs

76. Robbie Grossman, OF, Pirates

77. Neil Ramirez, RHP, Rangers

78. Casey Kelly, RHP, Padres

79. Chad Bettis, RHP, Rockies

80. Jose Fernandez, RHP, Marlins

81. Addison Reed, RHP, White Sox

82. John Lamb, LHP, Royals

83. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, Royals

84. Jessie Biddle, LHP, Phillies

85. Jonathan Schoop, INF, Orioles

86. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Padres

87. Eddie Rosario, OF/2B, Twins

88. Kolten Wong, 2B, Cardinals

89. Jeurys Familia, RHP, Mets

90. Joe Benson, OF, Twins

91. Matt Purke, LHP, Nationals

92. Wily Peralta, RHP, Brewers

93. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Blue Jays

94. Austin Hedges, C, Padres

95. Joe Ross, RHP, Padres

96. Derek Norris, C, Athletics

97. Tim Wheeler, OF, Rockies

98. Ryan Lavarnway, C, Red Sox

99. Mason Williams, OF, Yankees

100. Grant Green, OF, Athletics

101. Jorge Alfaro, C, Rangers

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Here's the Baseball America list of top 100.....

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2012/2612998.html

 

The Marlins have either 1 or 2 depending on which list you look at.....meanwhile........

 

The Rays have.......4 in BA and 2 in BP and they have been drafting behind us for a few years now. Beinfest & Hill better hit on expensive FA's because they haven't done a great job building the farm the last few years and its costing Loria a ton of money this off-season and probably the next couple of years if he wants to compete.

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kinda depressing how sh*tty our farm system is.

we're on track to be the Pirates if everything at the Major League level doesn't click immediately.

 

 

I agree Loria needs to make some serious FO changes. If Loria gets tired of spending money on ultra-expensive FA's, we are looking at multiple 90+ loss seasons.

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You guys do realize that the reason why our farm system sucks so much is because we recently graduated everyone, right?

 

I mean, it sure can use improvement, but I'd rather have Mike Stanton already proven at the age of 22 from the system than Mr. Prospect who might or might not be a bust.

 

We're not the Pirates (who, for what it's worth, look like they might be a good team sooner rather than later finally). We currently have a core that's basically already proven and still young. As long as you have a core, you're fine. Just need to build around it. Of course, we need to start hitting on some of our draft picks now (mainly pitching prospects because those are the ones you don't want to be paying long-term in free agency) but the situation isn't that bad.

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I don't think that's entirely true. It's definitely true for the offense in the obvious cases of Stanton and Morrison (to a much lesser extent Gaby Sanchez because of his age), but the Marlins have sucked terribly in drafting and cultivating pitching talent (or sucked at both). The Marlins haven't graduated any pitching talent worth a damn in recent years and most of the bullpen is constructed of either free agents or arms swapped via trade for other failed projects.

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I don't think that's entirely true. It's definitely true for the offense in the obvious cases of Stanton and Morrison (to a much lesser extent Gaby Sanchez because of his age), but the Marlins have sucked terribly in drafting and cultivating pitching talent (or sucked at both). The Marlins haven't graduated any pitching talent worth a damn in recent years and most of the bullpen is constructed of either free agents or arms swapped via trade for other failed projects.

 

 

As I said, they need to do better in the pitching department.

 

I can't think of too many teams with a better core of young hitters, though.

 

Also, I think there's too much of an emphasis placed on the draft. Obviously it's important but there are other ways to acquire talent to make your organization consistently good, and it seems like that's often ignored around here.

 

Our drafts might not be stellar but for a crapshoot event, we've drafted a stud RF'er, a LF'er who projects to be a pretty awesome bat in the future/now, a solid 1B, an ace, bullpen arms, and about half of our projected bench.

 

It's not terrible and it's rather unfair to continue comparing the situation to the Rays situation.

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If you agree that the pitching has been a problem (and it's been a big one in my opinion), then it's misleading to say the farm system "sucks because we graduated guys" when that only applies to the hitters. There has been some other breakdown in the organization. I don't see a valid excuse for the Marlins failing to produce a decent starting pitcher since Josh Johnson.

 

Now, I certainly agree that the draft is a crapshoot to some extent, but I think you are wrong to assume that the Marlins' failures to produce pitchers out of their system in recent years is simply bad luck. I don't see why we can't be considering that the Marlins might be poor at scouting pitchers or that the Marlins might not be the best at developing the arms as they work their way up in the system. For starting pitchers the only real success story is Josh Johnson. Now, it's a resounding success and we shouldn't expect every pitcher to be in his class, but among the Scott Olsens, Chris Volstads, and Sean Wests, there really isn't much else positive to report.

 

On top of that, the Marlins really haven't produced that many decent relievers from scratch, either.

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This is why I do feel that Loria needs to make some changes in the FO, and quickly or he will be paying for FA's for a long tome.

 

Right now if we wish to make a trade at the deadline, we have virtually no ammunition to deal away. If these guys don't pan out or we need something to make that push, we are basically screwed unless Oviedo is that trade bait.

 

Who is it that has overseen the drafting ? Beinfest or Hill ? Or both ? They should have Loria's attention for sure. He wouldn't have had to spend nearly as much in FA's this off-season had they had at least one pitcher to bring up. Buehrle would have been unnecessary and would have left Loria with maybe the cash to get another bat or some other position.

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If you agree that the pitching has been a problem (and it's been a big one in my opinion), then it's misleading to say the farm system "sucks because we graduated guys" when that only applies to the hitters. There has been some other breakdown in the organization. I don't see a valid excuse for the Marlins failing to produce a decent starting pitcher since Josh Johnson.

 

Now, I certainly agree that the draft is a crapshoot to some extent, but I think you are wrong to assume that the Marlins' failures to produce pitchers out of their system in recent years is simply bad luck. I don't see why we can't be considering that the Marlins might be poor at scouting pitchers or that the Marlins might not be the best at developing the arms as they work their way up in the system. For starting pitchers the only real success story is Josh Johnson. Now, it's a resounding success and we shouldn't expect every pitcher to be in his class, but among the Scott Olsens, Chris Volstads, and Sean Wests, there really isn't much else positive to report.

 

On top of that, the Marlins really haven't produced that many decent relievers from scratch, either.

 

 

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with what you said.

 

For what it's worth though, I think we have plenty of reliever prospects that have been drafted by the organization.

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This is why I do feel that Loria needs to make some changes in the FO, and quickly or he will be paying for FA's for a long tome.

 

Right now if we wish to make a trade at the deadline, we have virtually no ammunition to deal away. If these guys don't pan out or we need something to make that push, we are basically screwed unless Oviedo is that trade bait.

 

Who is it that has overseen the drafting ? Beinfest or Hill ? Or both ? They should have Loria's attention for sure. He wouldn't have had to spend nearly as much in FA's this off-season had they had at least one pitcher to bring up. Buehrle would have been unnecessary and would have left Loria with maybe the cash to get another bat or some other position.

 

 

The Marlins have a couple of prospects that plenty of teams would be interested in if we need to make a deal at the deadline.

 

The free agent signings made this offseason had very little to do with the fact that our farm system is poor. We spent money to create further excitement for the new stadium.

 

There were other ways to improve the team than to spend 191 million dollars in free agency. Reyes, Buehrle, and Bell weren't exactly specific necessities.

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This is why I do feel that Loria needs to make some changes in the FO, and quickly or he will be paying for FA's for a long tome.

 

 

If Loria was willing to put money into the draft/international free agency, I think things would be very different. It's a two-way street.

 

The FO has done pretty damn well for always being at the bottom of money spent on prospects. In the scheme of "populous opinion on player" aka top 100 lists, they have been around average. And a lot of those guys have flamed out [Hermida, West, Volstad], but I don't see how you can fault the FO for that when everyone thought they'd be good.

 

You certainly can't give much positive credit to the FO, but I think to simply discredit them while ignoring the situation is short sited. The true question is: How do they do now that the draft is capped and Loria has money to spend? They did pretty good based on their situation before (Which translated to average at best across all situations), now let's see how they do on an equal playing ground. If it's still average at best, yeah, then you can burn them. For now though they were on unfair footing.

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For what it's worth though, I think we have plenty of reliever prospects that have been drafted by the organization.

 

I can think of a few that have been decent over the past 6 years or so, but it's a pretty small number. That's why the Marlins have relied heavily on spring training invites in recent years to stock their bullpens. Now there isn't really anything wrong with using that strategy to some degree (because there have been some success stories), but there has also been some failures (see 2010).

 

I hypothesize that the Marlins track record of home growing pitchers (starters and relievers) is well below the MLB average.

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And a lot of those guys have flamed out [Hermida, West, Volstad], but I don't see how you can fault the FO for that when everyone thought they'd be good.

 

Maybe the minor league instructors just aren't that good? The obvious success stories (Johnson, Stanton, etc.) don't necessarily negate the possibility that the Marlins might not be making the most out of their talent.

 

Or maybe that the conventional wisdom for scouting is still antiquated and the Marlins have been poor at breaking free from it.

 

I think you are definitely right in exposing the funding issues. That's definitely a problem, but probably not the only problem.

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