March 19, 201214 yr AL East - Yankees AL Central - Tigers AL West - Rangers WC1 - Angels WC2 - Blue Jays MVP - Jose Bautista Cy Young - Jared Weaver RoY - Yu Darvish NL East - Phillies NL Central - Reds NL West - D-Backs WC1 - Giants WC2 - Marlins MVP - Joey Votto Cy Young - Cliff Lee RoY - Trevor Bauer
March 19, 201214 yr AL East - Yankees AL Central - Tigers AL West - Angels WC1 - Rangers WC2 - Rays MVP - Granderson Cy Young - Sabathia RoY - Matt Moore NL East - Marlins NL Central - Cardinals NL West - Diamondbacks WC1 - Phillies WC2 - Nationals MVP - Ryan Zimmerman Cy Young - Strasburg RoY - Yonder Alonso
March 20, 201214 yr AL East - Yankees AL Central - Tigers AL West - A's WC1 - Rangers WC2 - Red Sox MVP - Robinson Cano Cy Young - Justin Verlander RoY - Yoenis Cespedes NL East - Marlins NL Central - Cardinals NL West - Giants WC1 - Phillies WC2 - Reds MVP - Giancarlo Stanton Cy Young - Clayton Kershaw RoY - Yonder Alonso
March 20, 201214 yr AL East - Yankees AL Central - Tigers AL West - Angels WC1 - Blue Jays WC2 - Rangers MVP - Miguel Cabrera Cy Young - Justin Verlander RoY - Yu Darvish NL East - Braves NL Central - Reds NL West - D-Backs WC1 - Marlins WC2 - Cardinals MVP - Hanley Ramirez Cy Young - Tim Lincicum RoY - Bryce Harper
March 21, 201214 yr AL East - Boston Red Sox AL Central - Detroit Tigers AL West - LA Angels WC1 - Texas Rangers WC2 - New York Yankees MVP - Miguel Cabrera Cy Young - Justin Verlander RoY - Yoenis Cespedes NL East - Miami Marlins NL Central - St Louis Cardinals NL West - San Francisco Giants WC1 - Philadelphia Phillies WC2 - Cincinnati Reds MVP - Hanley Ramirez Cy Young - Adam Wainwright RoY - Yonder Alonso
March 22, 201214 yr I Love it when people underestimate the Rays, makes their looks of astonishment so much more enjoyable when they win stuff. ________ AL East - Tampa Bay Rays AL Central - Detroit Tigers AL West - LA Angels WC1 - Texas Rangers WC2 - Boston Red Sox MVP - Josh Hamilton Cy Young - James Shields RoY - Matt Moore NL East - Miami Marlins NL Central - St Louis Cardinals NL West - San Francisco Giants WC1 - Philadelphia Phillies WC2 - Arizona D-Backs MVP - Jason Heyward Cy Young - Adam Wainwright RoY - Yonder Alonso (excuse my NL picks, don't pay attention to the NL that much, just what I hear in passing on here and on MLB network. And if my AL picks make me a "homer", so be it, they're still my picks.)
March 22, 201214 yr So some of you guys actually think that the Marlins are division title caliber? I don't, but I can see why others might. Terry Francona said it best the other day... If all goes right, the Marlins are a top NL team, but chances are if you're counting on everything going right to succeed you probably won't. I see this season being mostly a success with a few setbacks, but I do view us as a Wild Card winner, not a Division title team. However, I also don't see the Phils taking home the crown either. They're going to have a huge problem trying to score runs at the beginning of this year, missing their two biggest bats in Howard AND Utley. Their schedule is one of the easiest in baseball for the first two months, so hopefully they don't take off to start the year. When they get those guys back they'll have a much harder schedule to finish the year, and hopefully they won't be able to catch up.
March 22, 201214 yr To earn a division title a team typically needs to win mid-90s games. I don't think that the Marlins are even that good on paper.
March 22, 201214 yr To earn a division title a team typically needs to win mid-90s games. I don't think that the Marlins are even that good on paper. For what it's worth, BaseballProspectus has the Phillies and Braves tying for the division lead at 88 wins with the Marlins at 87. And I don't think it's totally out of the question that the Phillies could have a very middle of the road offense next year at best. And they probably won't be quite as stingy on the defensive side of things. Vance Worley is probably going to regress, and they're replacing 140 innings of Roy Oswalt with, likely, 140+ innings of Joe Blanton. That's a pretty big dropoff over a 280 inning stretch. Especially considering Kyle Kendrick is almost certainly not going to sustain the 3.14 ERA he had in 80 starting innings, either. I can definitely see Miami, Atlanta and Philadelphia all finishing within a few games of each other.
March 22, 201214 yr To earn a division title a team typically needs to win mid-90s games. I don't think that the Marlins are even that good on paper. For what it's worth, BaseballProspectus has the Phillies and Braves tying for the division lead at 88 wins with the Marlins at 87. And I don't think it's totally out of the question that the Phillies could have a very middle of the road offense next year at best. And they probably won't be quite as stingy on the defensive side of things. Vance Worley is probably going to regress, and they're replacing 140 innings of Roy Oswalt with, likely, 140+ innings of Joe Blanton. That's a pretty big dropoff over a 280 inning stretch. Especially considering Kyle Kendrick is almost certainly not going to sustain the 3.14 ERA he had in 80 starting innings, either. I can definitely see Miami, Atlanta and Philadelphia all finishing within a few games of each other. And again, keep in mind they will probably be without Utley and/or Howard 50+ games this year the way things are shaping up. That lineup is not going to be impressive, and like you said, that rotation is going to regress. I don't see the Phils winning any more than 85 games the way they look right now. I see the Braves winning about 90-95 games, and the Marlins between 88-92, both making the post-season.
March 22, 201214 yr To earn a division title a team typically needs to win mid-90s games. I don't think that the Marlins are even that good on paper. For what it's worth, BaseballProspectus has the Phillies and Braves tying for the division lead at 88 wins with the Marlins at 87. And I don't think it's totally out of the question that the Phillies could have a very middle of the road offense next year at best. And they probably won't be quite as stingy on the defensive side of things. Vance Worley is probably going to regress, and they're replacing 140 innings of Roy Oswalt with, likely, 140+ innings of Joe Blanton. That's a pretty big dropoff over a 280 inning stretch. Especially considering Kyle Kendrick is almost certainly not going to sustain the 3.14 ERA he had in 80 starting innings, either. I can definitely see Miami, Atlanta and Philadelphia all finishing within a few games of each other. Those changes don't bring a 102 win team down to an 88 win team. I absolutely think that the Phillies have come down from last season (and are not a lock to win the division), but I'm highly skeptical that it would only take 88 wins to win the NL East (even with an unbalanced schedule and improved Marlins/Nationals).
March 22, 201214 yr To earn a division title a team typically needs to win mid-90s games. I don't think that the Marlins are even that good on paper. For what it's worth, BaseballProspectus has the Phillies and Braves tying for the division lead at 88 wins with the Marlins at 87. And I don't think it's totally out of the question that the Phillies could have a very middle of the road offense next year at best. And they probably won't be quite as stingy on the defensive side of things. Vance Worley is probably going to regress, and they're replacing 140 innings of Roy Oswalt with, likely, 140+ innings of Joe Blanton. That's a pretty big dropoff over a 280 inning stretch. Especially considering Kyle Kendrick is almost certainly not going to sustain the 3.14 ERA he had in 80 starting innings, either. I can definitely see Miami, Atlanta and Philadelphia all finishing within a few games of each other. And again, keep in mind they will probably be without Utley and/or Howard 50+ games this year the way things are shaping up. That lineup is not going to be impressive, and like you said, that rotation is going to regress. I don't see the Phils winning any more than 85 games the way they look right now. I see the Braves winning about 90-95 games, and the Marlins between 88-92, both making the post-season. Well, Utley only played in 103 games in 2011 and it didn't exactly kill their chances. On top of that, his knee problems don't sound any more severe than what Stanton and [especially] Morrison are dealing with right now. You need to be just as worried about one or both of those guys missing time as you should be with Utley. And Ryan Howard was basically a 1.5 WAR player for each of the last two seasons. They can survive without him. It's the rotation changes that will drop them from a 102 win team to somewhere in the mid 90s (94 +/- 2). 85 wins seems only in the picture to me if one or more of their big starters gets injured.
March 22, 201214 yr I think you will end up with something like this: Phillies (94) Braves (90) Nationals (85) Marlins (84)
March 22, 201214 yr AL East - Yankees AL Central - Tigers AL West - Angels WC1 - Red Sox WC2 - Rays/Rangers tie MVP - Jose Bautista Cy Young - Justin Verlander RoY - Matt Moore NL East - Phillies NL Central - Cardinals NL West - D-Backs WC1 - Marlins WC2 - Braves MVP - Hanley Ramirez Cy Young - Roy Halladay RoY - Yonder Alonzo (barely made the cut as a rookie)
March 22, 201214 yr AL East - Yankees AL Central - Tigers AL West - Angels WC1 - Rays WC2 - Red Sox MVP - Albert Pujols Cy Young - David Price RoY - Matt Moore NL East - Phillies NL Central - Reds NL West - Giants WC1 - Marlins WC2 - Braves MVP - Hanley Ramirez Cy Young - Tim Lincecum RoY - Still thinking, I'll edit this in
March 22, 201214 yr I think you will end up with something like this: Phillies (94) Braves (90) Nationals (85) Marlins (84) I think it's totally up in the air as to where the Marlins will finish. A lot of boom-bust potential.
March 22, 201214 yr To earn a division title a team typically needs to win mid-90s games. I don't think that the Marlins are even that good on paper. For what it's worth, BaseballProspectus has the Phillies and Braves tying for the division lead at 88 wins with the Marlins at 87. And I don't think it's totally out of the question that the Phillies could have a very middle of the road offense next year at best. And they probably won't be quite as stingy on the defensive side of things. Vance Worley is probably going to regress, and they're replacing 140 innings of Roy Oswalt with, likely, 140+ innings of Joe Blanton. That's a pretty big dropoff over a 280 inning stretch. Especially considering Kyle Kendrick is almost certainly not going to sustain the 3.14 ERA he had in 80 starting innings, either. I can definitely see Miami, Atlanta and Philadelphia all finishing within a few games of each other. And again, keep in mind they will probably be without Utley and/or Howard 50+ games this year the way things are shaping up. That lineup is not going to be impressive, and like you said, that rotation is going to regress. I don't see the Phils winning any more than 85 games the way they look right now. I see the Braves winning about 90-95 games, and the Marlins between 88-92, both making the post-season. Well, Utley only played in 103 games in 2011 and it didn't exactly kill their chances. On top of that, his knee problems don't sound any more severe than what Stanton and [especially] Morrison are dealing with right now. You need to be just as worried about one or both of those guys missing time as you should be with Utley. And Ryan Howard was basically a 1.5 WAR player for each of the last two seasons. They can survive without him. It's the rotation changes that will drop them from a 102 win team to somewhere in the mid 90s (94 +/- 2). 85 wins seems only in the picture to me if one or more of their big starters gets injured. How can you compare Utley's knee issues to Morrison or Stanton? Remember, Utley has problems with his kneeS, as in both of them. Stanton and Morrison are more than likely going to be in the lineup for Opening Day and have been cleared for baseball activities. I think that's a FAR cry from Utley, who will start the year on the DL and hasn't seen ANY action this spring.
March 22, 201214 yr To earn a division title a team typically needs to win mid-90s games. I don't think that the Marlins are even that good on paper. For what it's worth, BaseballProspectus has the Phillies and Braves tying for the division lead at 88 wins with the Marlins at 87. And I don't think it's totally out of the question that the Phillies could have a very middle of the road offense next year at best. And they probably won't be quite as stingy on the defensive side of things. Vance Worley is probably going to regress, and they're replacing 140 innings of Roy Oswalt with, likely, 140+ innings of Joe Blanton. That's a pretty big dropoff over a 280 inning stretch. Especially considering Kyle Kendrick is almost certainly not going to sustain the 3.14 ERA he had in 80 starting innings, either. I can definitely see Miami, Atlanta and Philadelphia all finishing within a few games of each other. Those changes don't bring a 102 win team down to an 88 win team. I absolutely think that the Phillies have come down from last season (and are not a lock to win the division), but I'm highly skeptical that it would only take 88 wins to win the NL East (even with an unbalanced schedule and improved Marlins/Nationals). Ugh. This sounds like a cop out, but I wrote a whole thing about how I think they're going to be at least 10 games worse, based on their rotation having a significant amount of overperformance/luck last season (Worley's whole year and Kendrick's starts; Halladay's career-low HR/FB rate), having to use Joe Blanton every fifth day, and a really subpar offense (likely only better than Houston, San Diego, San Francisco and Pittsburgh). It was a lot more convincing and in depth than that; I crunched numbers and everything, I swear. But I clicked out of the window and now I'm at work, so I don't have time to do it again. But I would put them at between 90-92 and the Marlins at 88-90. I don't think it's crazy to put them close to each other and, as fans, give the Marlins a slight edge. Personally, I would say the Marlins get one of the Wild Card spots.
March 23, 201214 yr AL East - Red Sox AL Central - Tigers AL West - Angels WC1 - Rays WC2 - Yankees MVP - Albert Pujols Cy Young - Justin Verlander RoY - Matt Moore NL East - Phillies NL Central - Reds NL West - Arizona WC1 - Marlins WC2 - Braves MVP - Hanley Ramirez Cy Young - Roy Halladay RoY - Anthony Rizzo
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