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2012 Predictions


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AL East - Yankees

AL Central - Tigers

AL West - Angels

WC1 - Rangers

WC2 - Rays

 

MVP - Granderson

Cy Young - Sabathia

RoY - Matt Moore

 

 

NL East - Marlins

NL Central - Cardinals

NL West - Diamondbacks

WC1 - Phillies

WC2 - Nationals

 

MVP - Ryan Zimmerman

Cy Young - Strasburg

RoY - Yonder Alonso

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AL East - Yankees

AL Central - Tigers

AL West - A's

WC1 - Rangers

WC2 - Red Sox

 

MVP - Robinson Cano

Cy Young - Justin Verlander

RoY - Yoenis Cespedes

 

 

NL East - Marlins

NL Central - Cardinals

NL West - Giants

WC1 - Phillies

WC2 - Reds

 

MVP - Giancarlo Stanton

Cy Young - Clayton Kershaw

RoY - Yonder Alonso

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AL East - Yankees

AL Central - Tigers

AL West - Angels

WC1 - Blue Jays

WC2 - Rangers

 

MVP - Miguel Cabrera

Cy Young - Justin Verlander

RoY - Yu Darvish

 

 

NL East - Braves

NL Central - Reds

NL West - D-Backs

WC1 - Marlins

WC2 - Cardinals

 

MVP - Hanley Ramirez

Cy Young - Tim Lincicum

RoY - Bryce Harper

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AL East - Boston Red Sox

AL Central - Detroit Tigers

AL West - LA Angels

WC1 - Texas Rangers

WC2 - New York Yankees

 

MVP - Miguel Cabrera

Cy Young - Justin Verlander

RoY - Yoenis Cespedes

 

NL East - Miami Marlins

NL Central - St Louis Cardinals

NL West - San Francisco Giants

WC1 - Philadelphia Phillies

WC2 - Cincinnati Reds

 

MVP - Hanley Ramirez

Cy Young - Adam Wainwright

RoY - Yonder Alonso

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I Love it when people underestimate the Rays, makes their looks of astonishment so much more enjoyable when they win stuff.

________

 

AL East - Tampa Bay Rays

AL Central - Detroit Tigers

AL West - LA Angels

WC1 - Texas Rangers

WC2 - Boston Red Sox

 

MVP - Josh Hamilton

Cy Young - James Shields

RoY - Matt Moore

 

NL East - Miami Marlins

NL Central - St Louis Cardinals

NL West - San Francisco Giants

WC1 - Philadelphia Phillies

WC2 - Arizona D-Backs

 

MVP - Jason Heyward

Cy Young - Adam Wainwright

RoY - Yonder Alonso

 

(excuse my NL picks, don't pay attention to the NL that much, just what I hear in passing on here and on MLB network. And if my AL picks make me a "homer", so be it, they're still my picks.)

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So some of you guys actually think that the Marlins are division title caliber?

 

 

I don't, but I can see why others might. Terry Francona said it best the other day... If all goes right, the Marlins are a top NL team, but chances are if you're counting on everything going right to succeed you probably won't.

 

I see this season being mostly a success with a few setbacks, but I do view us as a Wild Card winner, not a Division title team. However, I also don't see the Phils taking home the crown either. They're going to have a huge problem trying to score runs at the beginning of this year, missing their two biggest bats in Howard AND Utley. Their schedule is one of the easiest in baseball for the first two months, so hopefully they don't take off to start the year. When they get those guys back they'll have a much harder schedule to finish the year, and hopefully they won't be able to catch up.

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To earn a division title a team typically needs to win mid-90s games. I don't think that the Marlins are even that good on paper.

 

 

For what it's worth, BaseballProspectus has the Phillies and Braves tying for the division lead at 88 wins with the Marlins at 87.

 

And I don't think it's totally out of the question that the Phillies could have a very middle of the road offense next year at best.

 

And they probably won't be quite as stingy on the defensive side of things. Vance Worley is probably going to regress, and they're replacing 140 innings of Roy Oswalt with, likely, 140+ innings of Joe Blanton. That's a pretty big dropoff over a 280 inning stretch. Especially considering Kyle Kendrick is almost certainly not going to sustain the 3.14 ERA he had in 80 starting innings, either.

 

I can definitely see Miami, Atlanta and Philadelphia all finishing within a few games of each other.

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To earn a division title a team typically needs to win mid-90s games. I don't think that the Marlins are even that good on paper.

 

 

For what it's worth, BaseballProspectus has the Phillies and Braves tying for the division lead at 88 wins with the Marlins at 87.

 

And I don't think it's totally out of the question that the Phillies could have a very middle of the road offense next year at best.

 

And they probably won't be quite as stingy on the defensive side of things. Vance Worley is probably going to regress, and they're replacing 140 innings of Roy Oswalt with, likely, 140+ innings of Joe Blanton. That's a pretty big dropoff over a 280 inning stretch. Especially considering Kyle Kendrick is almost certainly not going to sustain the 3.14 ERA he had in 80 starting innings, either.

 

I can definitely see Miami, Atlanta and Philadelphia all finishing within a few games of each other.

 

And again, keep in mind they will probably be without Utley and/or Howard 50+ games this year the way things are shaping up. That lineup is not going to be impressive, and like you said, that rotation is going to regress. I don't see the Phils winning any more than 85 games the way they look right now. I see the Braves winning about 90-95 games, and the Marlins between 88-92, both making the post-season.

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To earn a division title a team typically needs to win mid-90s games. I don't think that the Marlins are even that good on paper.

 

 

For what it's worth, BaseballProspectus has the Phillies and Braves tying for the division lead at 88 wins with the Marlins at 87.

 

And I don't think it's totally out of the question that the Phillies could have a very middle of the road offense next year at best.

 

And they probably won't be quite as stingy on the defensive side of things. Vance Worley is probably going to regress, and they're replacing 140 innings of Roy Oswalt with, likely, 140+ innings of Joe Blanton. That's a pretty big dropoff over a 280 inning stretch. Especially considering Kyle Kendrick is almost certainly not going to sustain the 3.14 ERA he had in 80 starting innings, either.

 

I can definitely see Miami, Atlanta and Philadelphia all finishing within a few games of each other.

Those changes don't bring a 102 win team down to an 88 win team.

 

I absolutely think that the Phillies have come down from last season (and are not a lock to win the division), but I'm highly skeptical that it would only take 88 wins to win the NL East (even with an unbalanced schedule and improved Marlins/Nationals).

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To earn a division title a team typically needs to win mid-90s games. I don't think that the Marlins are even that good on paper.

 

 

For what it's worth, BaseballProspectus has the Phillies and Braves tying for the division lead at 88 wins with the Marlins at 87.

 

And I don't think it's totally out of the question that the Phillies could have a very middle of the road offense next year at best.

 

And they probably won't be quite as stingy on the defensive side of things. Vance Worley is probably going to regress, and they're replacing 140 innings of Roy Oswalt with, likely, 140+ innings of Joe Blanton. That's a pretty big dropoff over a 280 inning stretch. Especially considering Kyle Kendrick is almost certainly not going to sustain the 3.14 ERA he had in 80 starting innings, either.

 

I can definitely see Miami, Atlanta and Philadelphia all finishing within a few games of each other.

 

And again, keep in mind they will probably be without Utley and/or Howard 50+ games this year the way things are shaping up. That lineup is not going to be impressive, and like you said, that rotation is going to regress. I don't see the Phils winning any more than 85 games the way they look right now. I see the Braves winning about 90-95 games, and the Marlins between 88-92, both making the post-season.

Well, Utley only played in 103 games in 2011 and it didn't exactly kill their chances. On top of that, his knee problems don't sound any more severe than what Stanton and [especially] Morrison are dealing with right now. You need to be just as worried about one or both of those guys missing time as you should be with Utley.

 

And Ryan Howard was basically a 1.5 WAR player for each of the last two seasons. They can survive without him. It's the rotation changes that will drop them from a 102 win team to somewhere in the mid 90s (94 +/- 2). 85 wins seems only in the picture to me if one or more of their big starters gets injured.

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AL East - Yankees

AL Central - Tigers

AL West - Angels

WC1 - Red Sox

WC2 - Rays/Rangers tie

 

MVP - Jose Bautista

Cy Young - Justin Verlander

RoY - Matt Moore

 

 

NL East - Phillies

NL Central - Cardinals

NL West - D-Backs

WC1 - Marlins

WC2 - Braves

 

MVP - Hanley Ramirez

Cy Young - Roy Halladay

RoY - Yonder Alonzo (barely made the cut as a rookie)

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AL East - Yankees

AL Central - Tigers

AL West - Angels

WC1 - Rays

WC2 - Red Sox

 

MVP - Albert Pujols

Cy Young - David Price

RoY - Matt Moore

 

NL East - Phillies

NL Central - Reds

NL West - Giants

WC1 - Marlins

WC2 - Braves

 

MVP - Hanley Ramirez

Cy Young - Tim Lincecum

RoY - Still thinking, I'll edit this in

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To earn a division title a team typically needs to win mid-90s games. I don't think that the Marlins are even that good on paper.

 

 

For what it's worth, BaseballProspectus has the Phillies and Braves tying for the division lead at 88 wins with the Marlins at 87.

 

And I don't think it's totally out of the question that the Phillies could have a very middle of the road offense next year at best.

 

And they probably won't be quite as stingy on the defensive side of things. Vance Worley is probably going to regress, and they're replacing 140 innings of Roy Oswalt with, likely, 140+ innings of Joe Blanton. That's a pretty big dropoff over a 280 inning stretch. Especially considering Kyle Kendrick is almost certainly not going to sustain the 3.14 ERA he had in 80 starting innings, either.

 

I can definitely see Miami, Atlanta and Philadelphia all finishing within a few games of each other.

 

And again, keep in mind they will probably be without Utley and/or Howard 50+ games this year the way things are shaping up. That lineup is not going to be impressive, and like you said, that rotation is going to regress. I don't see the Phils winning any more than 85 games the way they look right now. I see the Braves winning about 90-95 games, and the Marlins between 88-92, both making the post-season.

Well, Utley only played in 103 games in 2011 and it didn't exactly kill their chances. On top of that, his knee problems don't sound any more severe than what Stanton and [especially] Morrison are dealing with right now. You need to be just as worried about one or both of those guys missing time as you should be with Utley.

 

And Ryan Howard was basically a 1.5 WAR player for each of the last two seasons. They can survive without him. It's the rotation changes that will drop them from a 102 win team to somewhere in the mid 90s (94 +/- 2). 85 wins seems only in the picture to me if one or more of their big starters gets injured.

 

How can you compare Utley's knee issues to Morrison or Stanton? Remember, Utley has problems with his kneeS, as in both of them. Stanton and Morrison are more than likely going to be in the lineup for Opening Day and have been cleared for baseball activities. I think that's a FAR cry from Utley, who will start the year on the DL and hasn't seen ANY action this spring.

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To earn a division title a team typically needs to win mid-90s games. I don't think that the Marlins are even that good on paper.

 

 

For what it's worth, BaseballProspectus has the Phillies and Braves tying for the division lead at 88 wins with the Marlins at 87.

 

And I don't think it's totally out of the question that the Phillies could have a very middle of the road offense next year at best.

 

And they probably won't be quite as stingy on the defensive side of things. Vance Worley is probably going to regress, and they're replacing 140 innings of Roy Oswalt with, likely, 140+ innings of Joe Blanton. That's a pretty big dropoff over a 280 inning stretch. Especially considering Kyle Kendrick is almost certainly not going to sustain the 3.14 ERA he had in 80 starting innings, either.

 

I can definitely see Miami, Atlanta and Philadelphia all finishing within a few games of each other.

Those changes don't bring a 102 win team down to an 88 win team.

 

I absolutely think that the Phillies have come down from last season (and are not a lock to win the division), but I'm highly skeptical that it would only take 88 wins to win the NL East (even with an unbalanced schedule and improved Marlins/Nationals).

 

Ugh.

 

This sounds like a cop out, but I wrote a whole thing about how I think they're going to be at least 10 games worse, based on their rotation having a significant amount of overperformance/luck last season (Worley's whole year and Kendrick's starts; Halladay's career-low HR/FB rate), having to use Joe Blanton every fifth day, and a really subpar offense (likely only better than Houston, San Diego, San Francisco and Pittsburgh).

 

It was a lot more convincing and in depth than that; I crunched numbers and everything, I swear. But I clicked out of the window and now I'm at work, so I don't have time to do it again.

 

But I would put them at between 90-92 and the Marlins at 88-90. I don't think it's crazy to put them close to each other and, as fans, give the Marlins a slight edge.

 

Personally, I would say the Marlins get one of the Wild Card spots.

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AL East - Red Sox

AL Central - Tigers

AL West - Angels

WC1 - Rays

WC2 - Yankees

 

MVP - Albert Pujols

Cy Young - Justin Verlander

RoY - Matt Moore

 

 

NL East - Phillies

NL Central - Reds

NL West - Arizona

WC1 - Marlins

WC2 - Braves

 

MVP - Hanley Ramirez

Cy Young - Roy Halladay

RoY - Anthony Rizzo

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