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MarlinsLou

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MarlinsLou last won the day on August 21

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  1. MarlinsLou

    2018 Winter Meetings

    It is, its an average of what free agency costs as teams win/lose on acquisitions. Something like Bour and Cron (and Morrison and Dietrich) is based on scarcity. They are probably going to be worth more, but there are a lot of them out there so it depresses the whole market. It's not perfect, but we have to value these guys somehow. Just like FG does with prospects, it's just based on averages (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/). The second a guy comes up and drops a 4 WAR year (Nimmo), things can change quickly as to how much he is valued. He's on paper worth more than most prospects at this point. I don't think surplus value is the gospel, but it gets you into a ballpark and then the eye of the beholder can take over.
  2. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto updates and rumors

    The Marlins will be very lucky to get a SS prospect the calibre of Gimenez through all of this trade shenanigans. He's probably the Marlins # 1 prospect depending on where they slot VVM. But we shall wait and see. Nimmo and Gimenez with some extra guys, especially someone who can profile as at least a cheap longterm backup catcher, would be pretty good for 2 Realmuto years.
  3. MarlinsLou

    2018 Winter Meetings

    Sure. I think you can question the Steamer numbers, but the analysis that guy did is right which is more important. A win in free agency is roughly +/- $8 million, and you can extrapolate prospect value (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/) to figure out a baseline. That all makes sense.
  4. MarlinsLou

    2018 Winter Meetings

    I think the analysis is right here, but Prado can't be trusted to produce that amount. He is -$15 and a pure loss. It's why they should just keep him until the deadline. If he can stay healthy for 3 months, they can turn him into some arm like Mills or Eveld, even if they eat all/most of his payroll. Ultimately, it's stupid to trade for Santana.
  5. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto updates and rumors

    Well he's more valuable than Stanton last year, so it will eclipse it. I think it's very arguable JT is more valuable now than Hanley in 2012 (with 2.5 years left on his deal, coming off a .9 WAR injured season and just doing OK in season 2012). Yelich and Cabrera were insanely more valuable.
  6. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto updates and rumors

    It's hard to say without being privy to negotiations. A lot of teams still need catchers, Harper and Machado are out there. We're not at the point of no return yet. But it's getting closer once some major moves come in from the big boy contenders. It's posturing, and it's annoying to us while we wait. I find it hard to believe no one is going to step up for the only 4+ WAR catcher in baseball, at 28 years old, so I appreciate them holding out. They probably know a bunch of deals they'll take, but are just waiting to see if a desperation overpay comes in until it becomes really necessary to move on. Let's see if Philly signs Machado and the Braves trade for Kluber. That should get the Mets attention real quick.
  7. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto updates and rumors

    Disagree. The Mets will just use their assets, whether keeping them or in trade, and go somewhere else for an upgrade. Realmuto is not the only good player in baseball. You take the best deal period and worry about your own team. That is all you can control.
  8. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto updates and rumors

    That's probably too much surplus value. That's 10 years of Nimmo and Rosario, for 2 of Realmuto. The AA pitcher would have to be a "Gallen or Yamamoto" (i.e., not worth much on a trade market even if a legitimate arm, a FV45/40 prospect). The Marlins would also have to include probably Rojas AND Conley/Wittgren to get it to reasonable value all around. There are a lot of permutations, but it's probably something like: Rosario/Nimmo/Conforto Gimenez, or if you get Rosario above, Alonso/Petersen Depending on who you get above, Petersen/Dunn/Kay/Szapucki/Kilome/Other Arm they like Nido And then depending on what foursome you get above, the Marlins are throwing in Rojas if you get Rosario for sure, probably Conley or Wittgren (Steckenrider would be too much) no matter what the spread is, and maybe the Marlins take on some/all of Lagares salary to give the Mets some salary relief. Personally, I can pass on Rosario and go to Gimenez, so I like this: Nimmo Gimenez literally anyone of Alonso/Petersen/Dunn/Kay/Szapucki/Kilome/Other arm they like more, preferably a lefty Nido Lagares, and TBD of how much money they would absorb For Realmuto and Rojas, and maybe you throw in Wittgren just to get it done. That is really solid value for Realmuto, and throw-ins that don't matter to the Marlins longterm. I'm not saying the Atlanta prospects aren't better (they very likely are), but I'm just saying they can do a deal with the Mets without Rosario. Hell, you can probably even kick Nimmo out and take Alonso and two of those laundry list pitchers after him. They have the juice, but I appreciate the Marlins holding out to the last possible minute to try and hit the grand slam.
  9. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto updates and rumors

    I missed that, but high five? Maybe it's the Bonafacio avatar.
  10. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto updates and rumors

    I'm pretty confident they will. He is insanely valuable. The best catcher in baseball, coming off a huge breakout season, at 28 years old, with non-guaranteed salaries past 2019, leverage to buy out his prime because he's 2 years from free agency, at the toughest physical position so he will take the buyout, and the rest of the NL East going bananas acquiring guys to pit the Braves and Mets against each other. I think we'll be happy about this one. Yelich will still be the only wart.
  11. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto updates and rumors

    Realmuto is clearly more valuable than both of them to anyone who has a clue. Especially since a team getting him probably gives him the 5/$80-85 deal he'll accept, increasing some surplus value that presently doesn't exist. It's fine to sign him for 5 or trade him. Either is a good situation. Only dumb one is to do nothing. If the Mets refuse to move Rosario (which is understandable), I only see one real trade permutation that works: Nimmo or Conforto Gimenez Alonso or D. Petersen Nido Lagares - and Marlins eat the $9 million of his salary to get it done. Marlins flip him at the deadline. Marlins ship out Realmuto, Rojas, and one of Conley or Wittgren in a 5-3. And if the Mets need to dump more payroll (to sign Pollock, or their dream Machado or Harper), I think the Marlins can take on D'Arnaud and maybe send back Dean, because the Mets could use some bench help in the OF and don't need redundant backup catchers. Another guy for the Marlins to flip at the deadline. Taking on the payroll in 2019 means nothing to Miami to get longterm players. It's a little messy given the Mets personnel, versus easier permutations with Houston/Atlanta/Dodgers, but it could work if this is the best deal. I'd be beyond fine getting the SS, 1B, and backup C of the future, and having excess outfielders to trade for more pitching at some point.
  12. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto updates and rumors

    5/$70 is where they should have started, not the "third" offer. 5/$80 is the sweet spot for everyone, which has been a broken record for half a year. Maybe you go to $85 to pay an incompetence Marlins front office tax for offering such BS initial offers (and fighting him in arbitration last year for $600k), but past that it's, no thanks. He's not worth more than that and trade him to a team he will sign that exact deal with.
  13. Because it allows them to keep -whoever- down in the minors for 120+ innings until the deadline, which helps long term development and potentially costs if it deflects a super2/arbitration year. Plus, if he pitches like 2013, 2016, or 2017, you get a decent arm prospect or two at the deadline to add to the longterm stable of relievers. Or, if he is awesome, you just keep him for 2020. An obvious tender. Dietrich you can probably replace with guys like Davidson or Flores (or Bour) who were also just non-tendered. You're not finding an arm like Straily for $4-5 million and a non-guaranteed option year in 2020.
  14. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto updates and rumors

    Yep. He's probably due 5/$85 right now in an arbitration buyout. In certain situations, he could probably just get over $100 on a 6 year deal with a team that is building around him. In two years when he is entering his age 30 season, and assuming he has still produced 4+ WAR seasons the last two years, I can see him getting over $100 million on a 5+ year deal. But it's not going to be astronomically over that. Catcher longevity is going to prevent him from getting a 9 year deal like Buster. Even if Realmuto has the physique to hold up better than most catchers, I don't anyone take on that risk. It's what we all know, he doesn't want to be here. The Marlins know the comps. Realmuto knows the comps. Realmuto has made around $5 million in his entire career, and will make $6-7 million in arbitration this year more than likely. I don't see him turning down literally 7 times that amount in a 5 year deal to completely secure his future and be a free agent again at a reasonable age 33 season. That is just a stupid life decision, and he should see things like Ozuna having a massive downgrade in production as a problem at securing future money. They should make a very public 5/$85 offer and trade him if he doesn't accept it. Either situation is fine. And then when he signs the same deal with the Astros, who cares. Get players with years of control and unapologetically keep making baseball moves.
  15. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto updates and rumors

    None, but let's not bring up Maybin and Miller
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