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MarlinsLou last won the day on August 21

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  1. MarlinsLou

    What happens this offseason?

    It's important to note that: Urena has 1.5 WAR in 138 IP Smith 1.2 in 77 IP Richards 1.1 in 90.1 iP Pablo .3 in 47 IP Straily averaged a 1.5 basically 2016/2017 when he wasn't hurt, and will only be 30. This isn't confusing anyone with the Indians, but they might have two-three 2+ WAR pitchers (ideally Caleb and Richards hit their peak with the best stuff of the lot and being club controlled), and two-three 1.5 type guys. There is something to be said of having a solid, let's say, 800-900 innings thrown collectively here of solid mid-rotation innings. That's worth exploring to see if someone takes off, and gives them a fighting chance with an above average bullpen (hopefully).
  2. MarlinsLou

    What happens this offseason?

    I have been thinking about this lately with Straily. I think he could be a non-tender, but he's not going to cost more than $4 million at the same time, and that's still real value if he turns back into 2016/2017 where he was objectively a pretty good 4th SP. I don't think they need to sign any pitchers. Assuming that Alcantara is in the pen, and they trade Barraclough (which I think is a given): SP - Urena, Straily, Smith, Richards, Pablo (Neidert, Gallen, and Yamamoto looming) RHP - Steckenrider, Alcantara, Guerrero, Wittgren, and let's say Brigham (Merandy, Hernandez, Meyer, and Kinley on 40 man for call ups, and Guzman looming) LHP - Conley, Chen, Garcia (Quijada and Peters on 40 man for call ups) That is plenty of arms. Churn through all of them and see who sticks. Of course, if some magical cheap signing like an Eovaldi presents itself, go for it.
  3. MarlinsLou

    What happens this offseason?

    Fangraphs agrees with you so you're not wrong - https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=18289&position=3B/OF#fielding I still think you put him at 3B though and if "in a season, give or take" he isn't better, you can always kick him to the OF then. It's not like he is blocking anyone at 3B or RF at the moment, or will forget how to play defense in RF.
  4. MarlinsLou

    Trade Deadline Approaching

    It's pretty easy. Definitely move - Barraclough, Dietrich, Ziegler, Maybin, and Castro. First two are having great years for who they are so max out their value as they aren't in a longterm contending plan. Ziegler is part salary dump, part he's been good for the last 6+ weeks and get whatever. Maybin is whatever, clear some space for Dean/Ortega/Sierra/Cooper/Lee/Brinson(DL) and let the kids play. Castro is also part salary dump to get him off the books for next year, and probably get 2 half decent prospect lottery tickets. Rojas and Riddle can man the middle with Diaz primed for an early 2019 call up. Untradeable - Prado, Chen. Obviously eat all the monies to get rid of them Move if you get a beneficial package - Realmuto, Bour, Rojas, Straily, Urena, Conley. These guys value isn't changing between now and the winter when you figure out new contract statuses. No reason to move them without obvious replacements, but if you get a positive deal, sure go for it now. As to Realmuto, only entertain discussions if it is 100% determined he won't take a 4-5 year deal after this season. Don't move - Steckenrider. Is controlled for 5 seasons, this isn't worth it. They need to be keeping guys like this who can blossom into very high end relievers for a long time of control. I considered putting Conley here, but he hits arbitration next year and starts getting a little expensive versus only showing 2 good months as a reliever.
  5. MarlinsLou

    Brinson makes opening day roster

  6. MarlinsLou

    Conley, Peters, Garcia among cuts

    Ozuna was offered an extension and turned it down, no guarantee they take it. Gotta preserve the year.
  7. MarlinsLou

    Conley, Peters, Garcia among cuts

    Braves sent down Acuna today. Marlins need to stop being idiots, plain and simple.
  8. MarlinsLou

    Conley, Peters, Garcia among cuts

    I think you're missing the point. Being a Super 2 is irrelevant. Having another year of control is what matters. If you call him up May 8th (give or take a day), he will end the season with under 1 year of service time. It'll be about .171 days of service time (172 being a full year. League calendar year is 182 days, so they build in a freebie 10 days there). End of 2018, .171 days End of 2019, 1.171 days End of 2020, 2.171 days, Arb 1 as a Super 2 for 2021 End of 2021- 3.171, Arb 2 End of 2022 - 4.171, Arb 3 End of 2023 - 5.171. This is what is being argued. He does not have 6 years of service time. You have control for 2024 as he is under 6 years, and he gets a 4th year of arbitration year. End of 2024 - 6.171 - Free Agency Yes, this is literally how you are reading this - he is not a free agent by 1 day. If you're wondering, Kris Bryant has 2.171 days of service time right now. Cubs did this exact plan with him. If Brinson is up before May 8th, give or take, he gets to 6 years by the end of 2023 and you don't get him in 2024. I agree, it would be ridiculous to keep him down until July to avoid being a Super 2, but these next 6 weeks dictate if you get him in 2024 or not. It's a big deal. This concept also applies to Anderson, Peters, Alcantara, J. Garcia, and Conley, but is most important with Brinson as the # 1 asset in the organization at this time.
  9. MarlinsLou

    Fangraphs Top 29 for the Marlins

    A few position player starters, some with big upside, a stellar future bullpen, and skeptical SP. Sounds about right. Practically, if the lineup in 2020 has Brinson, Harrison, Sierra, Anderson, and Diaz in it, with B. Lee, Riddle, and Cooper on the bench, god willingly Alcantara as a 2/3 SP, they get three more 3/4/5 types out of Urena, Neidert, D. Peters, J. Garcia, Ca. Smith, and pick your favorite lesser SP fringe prospect, and get the radical bullpen of say Guzman, Steckenrider, Wittgren, Gallen, Yamamoto, etc., they are going to be in really good shape. Also important to note Realmuto, Bour, Castro, Prado, Dietrich, Maybin, Straily, Ziegler, and Barraclough are going to turn into at least 1 awesome, 4-6 decent, and 6+ lottery tickets to add to the list. They really need to keep hammering getting up the middle players (C, 2B, SS) and SP and all should work out (on paper).
  10. MarlinsLou

    Conley, Peters, Garcia among cuts

    Despaigne looks pretty good, and this is starting to feel to me Ca. Smith gets the # 4 spot because of his Yankees pedigree (and getting a lefty look in rotation). That's fine. The team needs a 5th starter about 5 times until May 15th. I think they should go with a 4 man rotation and have 5 built in bullpen days. They can easily figure that out, especially because you can option up and down someone. Straily, Urena, Despaigne, Ca. Smith (Chen DL) Ziegler, Barraclough, Steckenrider (Wittgren DL) O'Grady, Tazawa, J. Turner, E. Hernandez, Nicolino, and pick a guy on the 40 man, let's go with T. Guerrero. Best case scenario is still signing a veteran innings eater (Hellickson?), pushing Ca. Smith to the bullpen, and Smith/O'Grady are guys with an option left if they need a fresh arm (Peters, Conley, Garcia) to call up and down, or just start the DFA's with Nicolino if he doesn't figure it out.
  11. MarlinsLou

    Dimelo, Miami

    Didn't click, is there a place I can get on a soapbox about service time
  12. MarlinsLou

    Predict the Opening Day 25-Man Roster

    They have said Garcia is going to start this entire year whether it is AAA or MLB. They are converting O'Grady to a reliever (which is a smart move). Practically, they are not in competition for a spot. I think this projection is more of an indication that Garcia should get some AAA innings to stretch himself out before rejoining the team. I agree with that, and I don't think it is a knock on Garcia. He's going to pitch more innings than O'Grady and Nicolino this year when all is said and done. As for Nicolino, he is just out of options so why not try him for 6-8 weeks before you call someone up to replace him. If the shellings continue, he will be gone. Really no harm there and seeing if he finally figures it out before replacing him with Peters or whoever. The problem is blowing a year of service time on Brinson, Alcantara, and Anderson. That makes -0- sense and is embarrassing.
  13. Oh my gawd, so we're now trading just Stanton and Gordon, keeping Yelich and Ozuna, and convincing 4-5 hope and prayer free agents like Jon Jay, Wade Miley, and Joulys Chacin to sign, perform well, and lead the way to an 18 game improvement (once Stanton and Gordon's production are off the team). This was not going to happen absent a $75 million increase in salary from what the Marlins already had. No person on the planet would have increased salary that much. Make it stop. Please season, start tomorrow for the love of god so this stops.
  14. You would need to replace minimum 500+ innings and probably get an upgraded 600 PA somewhere. The team was 4+ players away from beating the Nationals, Cubs, or Dodgers.
  15. That math doesn't add up for a 12 WAR swing. The Marlins wouldn't be getting -5+ WAR from their 4/5 SP and some extra relievers. Caleb Smith and Despaigne are projected to be .5-1.5 WAR players for instance. That's not good, but it is slightly above replacement level. Adding just Darvish and Chatwood is a hope and a dream of making the wild card game. They would need another 2+ players, likely from free agency, or someone like Anderson becoming a 3+ WAR player immediately

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