YearOneMarlinFan

How bad is traffic from the Miami to the stadium on a Friday afternoon? I'm going to the game (I'm from out of town) and will be leaving from around the airport area. When should I leave if I want to get there at around 6ish? Thanks. Rush hour on Friday - traffic will be bad. And it's opening day so traffic around the stadium will be worse. Leave the day before.

We're definitely an improved team overall. I can see an improvement of just ten wins being enough to make us serious contenders. And ten wins doesnt seem as much to get with the upgraded bullpen and the additions of Vazquez and Buck and full years from Stanton and LoMo. Add in a potentially better than 2010 Hanley, a full year of Coghlan and hopefully an at least slightly improved defense. Ten wins more than last year isnt too much to ask for. Plus, too many people are awarding this division to the Phils already. Its silly. Great starting pitching? Yes of course. But the Marlins have always fared well against Oswalt and Hamels, Jamie Moyer is out, and the Phils are starting to age and be questionable offensively. I see the Phils as being on an eventual downturn for the next couple years. Besides Halladay and Lee, NOTHING on the Phils is a lock for this year in my eyes. Ten more wins is a gigantic improvement. It's not impossible, but to call it "just ten wins" is absurd. We'd get ten more wins just by cutting our blown saves down to something tolerable, and even more if we can get our defense out of the cellar.

After numerous years of inconsistent bullpens caused by their own doing of not establishing depth, they finally figured it out this year and got a heap of arms for when guys are ineffective or get injured. I predict, they finally realize this same insanity has existed on their bench for a long time, and they go out and get a few positive bench contributors in the future so when gasp, injuries happen, we aren't subjected at looking at barely over .600 OPS Luis Castillo, Greg Dobbs, Joe Borchard, Reggie Abercrombie, Chad Tracy, etc, as our next best backup options. Would it have killed you guys to spend twice the league minimum and get a veteran 4th outfielder and a real backup 3B for the bench, and just add that to Bonifacio and Helms? We're only starting 5 first and second year players who of course will never have growing pains too. I mean, is this serious? I can only pray final camp cuts in a week provide better options. Did you have someone in mind?

So does this mean we aren't giving Mike Lamb a shot this year? :mis2 ... :thumbup

I've been thinking about CJ and Benito, and I have a question for those of you who are deeper into stats than I am. Is there any kind of stat that reflects how well a catcher works with pitchers? It seems like that information usually comes from conversations with pitchers, coaches, and managers. I can't think of any way it could be recorded as data. Is there?

I suspect right away, it would be "bad." Like, .230/.280/.375..... but as shown, that might not be THAT bad if he is as advertised defensively. He probably is in the top 18-22 range of 3B hitting that low, which I would take and is really an upgrade over last year as crazy as that is to think. In a few years, I'd suspect some power growth into a .260/.315/.425, and god willingly a few more walks and bombs to get into the high 700s. He gets that first number in his OPS score to 7, I think we are set for awhile at 3B. He did good against RHP last year, .772 as the youngest guy in AA, so that ain't to shabby. Even if he struggles with lefties going forward, if he can match that in the bigs as he ages, $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ This is the realistic assessment I was trying to get at several entries ago, but maybe it just came across as pessimism. Those numbers (bolded) would be just fine with me, to start with, but I think others are expecting quite a bit more.

Lol, yes. Also, even if Dominguez only had an OPS higher than Cantu by 20 points, his defense is light years better than Cantu's defense. This is the thing people don't understand. This may not be such a bad idea IF Dominguez can smack a few extra base hits and defense is as advertised. It's a huge leap of faith, but it's really not asking for a lot IF he is that good defensively. He has always had great ISO's, so he could smack a lot of extra base hits even if it's a real low average/obp, he could probably hold his own. But really, it's not like I want to do this and I'd really like them to bring in a veteran 3B to help with the load, and I don't mean Edgar Renteria, but I don't think the Dominguez experiment is a totally bad idea. The biggest thing for me is delaying his arbitration a year by bringing him up in June. It's not that I don't think he couldn't be a low end regular, which I think he can do if that defense is for real (and every scout says it is). However, that was how this discussion started, I believe. I agree with your conclusions and look forward to Dominguez getting his shot. But a couple of us thought there was way too much optimism going around that Dominguez will certainly do just fine both in the field and at the plate. He may indeed, as you point out, but we don't have reason to be certain of it. It's a leap of faith. It's a good experiment.

The point was that Sirspud just makes stuff up. Ah.

Jorge Cantu had an OPS of .695 last season, while Dominguez had an OPS of .744. That might be significant if Dominguez had done it in the majors. Otherwise, who knows?

The CF'er this year is better than the CF'er we had last year. And for all the sh*t said about Dominguez, his overall production can't possibly be any worse than the crap we got out of 3B last year (Cantu, Helms, Tracy, Luna...crap, crap, crap, crappiest). It cant possibly be any worse, AND it has the opportunity to be miles better. That's the beauty about it. Actually, yet, it can get worse, and Dominguez had an OPS only 20 some points higher than Cantu and he was in AA. I know that Dominguez is fine on defense, but a guy who hasn't been a standout hitter since short A is liable to come up and be a complete and entire void if he is not ready. In over 100 AB's at AA last year, he couldn't even hit .200 and he slugged .320. That's what can happen if a guy is not ready, and assuming he won't do that when he has merely treaded water against AA pitching is folly. The FO is making a lot of deals that make sense; its a shame that this had to take place in the same offseason where we once again had to give up a talented player for relatively little. I worry less about the pitching staff now but I am still concerned about a lineup that has no legitimate cleanup guy and no real CFer or major league-ready third basemen. You don't think Stanton is a cleanup guy? I agree about the CF and 3B, but I'm still not fully convinced Coghlan opens up the season at CF. I'm a huge MIke Stanton fan, but I'm not convinced that he's going to be ready to be a lineup centerpiece next year. In 3-4 years, I think he is going to be getting 40 plus homers every year, but right now I think he is going to be incredibly streaky and a possible victim of a sophomore slump, most especially if he is the guy that is having to anchor the lineup. We should see him top 30 homers this year, but it could still come with an average and OBP that would burdensome to have in the 4 hole. I'm with you on both points. There seem to be a lot of over-optimistic expectations being posted about both Dominguez and Stanton. I hope they turn out to be right but the points you make are much more realistic.

Wow, I love this at that price. So Choate is signed for 2 years. Hensley, Dunn, and Badenhop are club-controlled for at least another year after 2011, right? I believe Leo has 2011-2012 under team control, too. I would imagine we have Sanches another 2-3 years, as well. What about Webb and Mujica? This Bullpen could be locked in for this year AND next, which is super awesome. And of course we always have a couple of guys waiting in AA/AAA with nasty stuff. Dunn is club-controlled until 2013 (pre-Arb.); I'm not 100% sure on Webb, but I think it's the same thing. Mujica is arbritration eligible this offseason. By club-control, I'm just referring to non-Free Agents. If that's the wrong terminology, then my bad. But I just meant that we'll have this bullpen together for at least 2 years if we want it. That's awesome. I've always been confused with that, but in that case, Dunn doesn't become a free agent until 2016. Webb's case, I would imagine, is nearly identical. Baseball-reference doesn't have any info on his contract, though. Under the current CBA, Webb will not be arb eligible until 2013 and a free agent until 2016. That'll be a nice change from reinventing the bullpen almost every season.

who is our closer? Hensley, or Nunez Here we go again! :banghead

Stats aside, just by watching him pitch last season, I didn't see anything to indicate Hensley couldn't be an effective closer again this year. At the same time, and again just by observation, I didn't see anything to make me think Nunez would be a lot better at closing. Sure, Nunez has that wicked changeup but I just didn't see the control developing. He never seemed very good at hitting the target with the changeup and only so-so with the fastball. Nunez: 2.9 Walks Per 9 Innings. 65% Strikes. 60% First-Pitch Strikes. Hensley: 3.5 Walks Per 9 Innings. 61% Strikes. 52% First-Pitch Strikes. "But I said 'Stats aside'" is not a viable response. Leo threw more strikes, got ahead of more batters, and walked fewer batters last year. Those are rather conclusive about their performances last season. The stats might seem conclusive if that's all you've got to go by. I start with what I see on the field, which is what I love about the game. Sometimes the numbers add something helpful, sometimes they don't. (For me, with Nunez mostly they don't.) Obviously it's not that way for everyone. So your estimates should be trusted over actual facts? I'm not saying Nunez wasn't shakier in the 9th, and Erick is right about the high-leverage situations. But you can't say that Leo had a control problem, and so you prefer Hensley, because that's wrong. You wanna prefer Clay for other reasons? Cool. But having better control than Leo isn't one of them, regardless of your striking observational powers. The facts I see with my own eyes are that Nunez has a lot more trouble hitting the target, putting pitches where they're supposed to go (and I don't just mean the strike zone), and fooling batters. That's been plain as day. I don't want to rehash the stats / no stats debate, but there are many things I can learn, not to mention enjoy, by watching the game that stats can't give me. If it doesn't work that way for you, then we just have different ways of appreciating the game. Sometimes the stats are more revealing, sometimes the eyes are.

Stats aside, just by watching him pitch last season, I didn't see anything to indicate Hensley couldn't be an effective closer again this year. At the same time, and again just by observation, I didn't see anything to make me think Nunez would be a lot better at closing. Sure, Nunez has that wicked changeup but I just didn't see the control developing. He never seemed very good at hitting the target with the changeup and only so-so with the fastball. Nunez: 2.9 Walks Per 9 Innings. 65% Strikes. 60% First-Pitch Strikes. Hensley: 3.5 Walks Per 9 Innings. 61% Strikes. 52% First-Pitch Strikes. "But I said 'Stats aside'" is not a viable response. Leo threw more strikes, got ahead of more batters, and walked fewer batters last year. Those are rather conclusive about their performances last season. The stats might seem conclusive if that's all you've got to go by. I start with what I see on the field, which is what I love about the game. Sometimes the numbers add something helpful, sometimes they don't. (For me, with Nunez mostly they don't.) Obviously it's not that way for everyone.

Nunez made me nervous when he was out there. Hensley didn't. Throw all the stats you want out there but Leo out there in the 9th takes days off my life Exactly.

Stats aside, just by watching him pitch last season, I didn't see anything to indicate Hensley couldn't be an effective closer again this year. At the same time, and again just by observation, I didn't see anything to make me think Nunez would be a lot better at closing. Sure, Nunez has that wicked changeup but I just didn't see the control developing. He never seemed very good at hitting the target with the changeup and only so-so with the fastball.

I would rather have d-railed as a lefty bat off the bench. :thumbup

Wow, this happened so fast lol. But what the hell is it with the obsession for relievers. I get they want to trade Leo, but I really hope Nolasco isn't dealt for more relievers. At this rate, we can just have 4 SP and 1 day where we stick our 25 relievers in. For some reason, everyone is conveniently ignoring the fact that the Marlins said today that they want to keep Nolasco through his arbritration years even if he doesn't sign an extension. They want him here for '11 and '12. They probably see that his trade value isn't that great right now due to his #'s the past couple of years, and still feel (due to his peripherals) that he can still develop as a #2 here after Josh Johnson. Conveniently ignoring? Unless I've stumbled unknowingly across a heated argument or something, I don't see why I'd 'conveniently' ignore anything. I just said I hope Nolasco isn't dealt for more relievers. I also hope Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson and Mike Stanton aren't dealt for more relievers. Jesus, you're so aggressive lol. Saying they are going to keep Nolasco may in part be posturing for trade value. Beinfest has also insisted that Nunez will be the closer but many of us think that is largely sales talk.

I don't remember many trades happening actually during or shortly after ST. My guess is he either gets traded before ST or he's with the team at least until mid-season. But I agree with those who have said that Beinfest's assertions of confidence in him are more to enhance his trade value than anything else. I suspect he doesn't really have the closer job locked up. Yea it definitely happens frequently, during spring training and in the last 2 or 3 days of spring theres usually a small flurry of moves with last minute adjustments to the rosters. Marlins got Nate Robertson like that in the last few days last year. Off the top of my head, I believe Jorge Julio was acquired during the spring as well. Plus then you have moves from those non-roster invites who get cut from camp and get picked up at the last possible minute by another club. Beinfest has actually been one to wait for ST cuts to make a trade going into the season but out of all the moves you had to remind me of Julio? You are becoming a bit of a sadist SilverBullet...LOL Point taken. I do remember Robertson's trade at that time, now that you mention it, but hadn't noticed that it was more common.

For every game Wes Helms start, I shall smite a kitten. :lol On the CF issue, why not just stick Cousins out there? He can already play CF and has a good arm. Plus then we can keep Boni as super-sub where he's probably most valuable. Seems a lot more reasonable than sticking Coghlan out there as a project. Bottom line, we are in this situation cuz of Cog's excellent bat. He clearly is a better hitter than Cousins, so first priority is getting Coghlan's bat in the lineup. And while its a tough problem for us defensively... it seems like a "good situation" as far as our offense goes. How do we know that he is a better hitter than Cousins? He might be, but we really haven't seen enough of either to be sure of that.

I wouldn't be sure about Nuñez coming back but I see nothing wrong with that I don't see him being our closer again though at least not going into ST If he comes back, he'll be closing. Or, at least, the favorite to close heading into the season. You don't have a tight budget, and then have one of your highest paid guys as a middle reliever. If they bring him back, it's because they think he can close. It's not really what I want because I think it's unnecessary, but even if we only go with the one lefty (Dunn), our bullpen has the potential to be really nasty. Long/Middle Relief: Mujica, Badenhop, Sanches Lefty Setup Guy: Dunn Righty Setup Guy: Hensley, Webb (would be nice if Webb emerges here with his stuff because then you'd have Hensley as another guy who can slide back, and give multiple innings out of the pen) Closer: Leo That has the makings of a lights out bullpen. Obviously one or two guys probably won't perform as expected; however, that's seven arms who have proven they can pitch at the big league level, so you'd have to expect that at least 4 or 5 would stick and be legit for us. Really good pen...and it shouldn't be overused because the rotation is well above average, with depth in case of injury (6th starter, Sanabia). I really believe Leo will need to win the closer job back he isn't going to have it handed to him...not after last season. I am kinda suspecting the Marlins are gonna make a couple of more moves so this is far from being finalized I agree. However, if he doesn't win it, he won't stay on the team. They'd trade him before the season starts, if they see he's struggling in Spring Training. He's the favorite for the job in '11, assuming he stays; Beinfest actually already said this. I don't remember many trades happening actually during or shortly after ST. My guess is he either gets traded before ST or he's with the team at least until mid-season. But I agree with those who have said that Beinfest's assertions of confidence in him are more to enhance his trade value than anything else. I suspect he doesn't really have the closer job locked up.

For every game Wes Helms start, I shall smite a kitten. :lol On the CF issue, why not just stick Cousins out there? He can already play CF and has a good arm. Plus then we can keep Boni as super-sub where he's probably most valuable. I'm hopeful that Cousins will show he can hit at the ML level and make the team. I'd like to see him starting in the OF somewhere, preferrably CF, but it looks like Beinfest is determined to give Coghlan a crack at it to start with.

I agree. Don't know what the stats say but Paulino did a reasonably good job defensively. Got to be a pretty good hitter too, but I guess we all found out how he did that. What other drug suspensions have the Marlins had? I can't remember. I believe you are jumping to an incorrect conclusion there. From what I read it wasn't a performance enhancing supplement, it was a dietary one. And given Ronnie's size and constant overuse, I find that at least more believable. I am jumping to a conclusion - that's all any of us can do - but sadly I think it's the right one. I like Ronnie as a player and I'd like to believe him, but it's a case of "That's what they all say" and I'm very skeptical. I do hope the Marlins bring him back but I'll be surprised if they do.

1965? I was teenager either at or wanting to go to a Twins game. The Senators moved to Minnesota from DC in '61. Followed them from day one in Minnesota. Killebrew, Allison, Kaat, Pascual, Rollins, Mincher, Oliva, Carew and all the rest of those guys. Charlie Manuel, yes, that Charlie Manuel was a rookie in '69 who was supposed to be the next Killebrew. He wound up in Japan. :lol They never won anything until the late '80s, but they always gave the Yankees a hard time. Saw Whitey Ford, Pepitone, Mantle and Maris play at Metropolitan Stadium, which was sort of a minor league stadium that got upgraded over the years. Then it literally fell apart. Saw Denny McLain pitch in a double-header the year he won 30 games. The Met was packed to the rafters, about 45,000 people. The joint was rocking. Also went to a lot of games when there were about 500 people in the stands. Saw Carew try to steal home for the record (8.) He was out. Saw Tony Oliva's ML debut in '63, and remember sitting in the stands years later reading the program that said he was 29 and thinking he was really old. Bleacher seats were a buck-fifty. Good times. Great stuff! They did get to the World Series in '65. Did you get to see any of it? After Kaat's great season he just couldn't beat the Dodgers. I was in Minnesota in the '80s myself. Sent you an e-mail so I wouldn't bore others with this stuff.

What's the deal with Ronnie Paulino then? He won't be here next year. According to? I mean, I knew that might happen... but who else is there? [/b]Buck is a more powerful version of Paulino offensively with as bad or worse defensive ability.Paulino will be released or traded and our back up until Baker gets healthy will be between Davis and Hayes most likely. Until Fredi severely overused Ronnie last year, his defense wasn't bad at all. Kept the ball in front of him regardless of which side it went to and did pretty good tossing guys out stealing. I've never really watched Buck play, and I'm not into defensive stats. So to me this is a wait and see thing. And I know the rumor is that they are upset with the suspension of Ronnie. But this team has shown remarkable patience with drug related suspensions in the past, and with giving players second chances. I don't know if they will look at things this way with Ronnie, I'm just throwing that out there. I agree. Don't know what the stats say but Paulino did a reasonably good job defensively. Got to be a pretty good hitter too, but I guess we all found out how he did that. What other drug suspensions have the Marlins had? I can't remember.