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Rotoworld's take on the trade


Shaq-Man
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for what it's worth, the folks at rotoworld actually managed to look at all of the factors in this trade (stats, money, needs) from both sides. make of it what you will, but they usually do a much better job at assessing trades in terms of baseball sense.

 

how it looks for us:

 

at 6pm, before it was official:

Paul Lo Duca - Catcher

 

The move to acquire Charles Johnson likely signals that the Dodgers are moving close to finalizing a deal that would send Paul Lo Duca, Guillermo Mota and Juan Encarnacion to the Marlins.

The Dodgers would get Steve Finley, Brad Penny and Hee Seop Choi in the three-team deal involving Arizona. If the deal is expanded to include Randy Johnson, Penny would then move on to Arizona. If it's just Finley, the Diamondbacks would get Jayson Werth and prospects (Bill Murphy?). The Dodgers look like a huge winner here even if they don't get Johnson, and it's becoming more likely that they will. Jul. 30 - 5:36 pm et

 

 

and at midnight, after it was official:

Paul Lo Duca - Catcher

 

Marlins acquired catcher Paul Lo Duca, outfielder Juan Encarnacion and RHP Guillermo Mota from the Dodgers for RHP Brad Penny, 1B Hee Seop Choi and LHP Bill Murphy.

We're not thrilled with this trade from Florida's perspective. They lose more offense going from Choi to Encarnacion than they gain going from Mike Redmond to Lo Duca. Also, a starter as good as Penny is worth more than Mota. After factoring in that Lo Duca's heavy workload usually leads to him wearing down in the second half, this looks like a clear downgrade. Expect Lo Duca to bat either third or fifth for the Marlins. Jul. 30 - 11:59 pm et

 

 

 

and from the dodger's perspective:

 

at 6pm, before it was official:

Brad Penny - Starting Pitcher

 

ESPN's Peter Gammons reports that the Dodgers have acquired Brad Penny, Hee Seop Choi and Bill Murphy from the Marlins for Paul Lo Duca, Juan Encarnacion and Guillermo Mota.

Great, great trade for the Dodgers. This is a two-team deal for now, but Murphy and Jayson Werth are probably going to Arizona for Steve Finley. Penny would also be sent to the Diamondbacks if a Randy Johnson trade gets done. Choi should take over as the Dodgers' primary first baseman, pushing Shawn Green back to right. So, if the Dodgers do get Finley, they'll have to decide between Dave Roberts and Choi for playing time -- expect Choi to be the loser. Jul. 30 - 6:05 pm et

 

 

and at midnight, after it was official:

Brad Penny - Starting Pitcher

 

Dodgers acquired RHP Brad Penny, 1B Hee Seop Choi and LHP Bill Murphy from the Marlins for catcher Paul Lo Duca, OF Juan Encarnacion and RHP Guillermo Mota.

The Dodgers might be taking a chance by making so many moves with a first-place team, but who can blame them when they can make deals like this? When he's on, Penny can beat just about anyone, and he's been on more often than not this year. Choi's OBP and SLG will look great in the middle of the lineup, and he'll make just over the minimum through the end of next year. Maybe the Dodgers are downgrading at catcher, but Lo Duca is overrated defensively and he typically wears down as the season progresses. The bullpen also takes a hit, but they'll still be OK if Darren Dreifort's body holds up. Plus, they'll be able to move Wilson Alvarez back to the pen at some point. Penny's value should increase in Los Angeles. He was already working in a pitcher's park, but now he's in a better one and he'll have superior bullpen support. Jul. 31 - 12:10 am et

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Paul Lo Duca - Catcher

 

Marlins acquired catcher Paul Lo Duca, outfielder Juan Encarnacion and RHP Guillermo Mota from the Dodgers for RHP Brad Penny, 1B Hee Seop Choi and LHP Bill Murphy.

We're not thrilled with this trade from Florida's perspective. They lose more offense going from Choi to Encarnacion than they gain going from Mike Redmond to Lo Duca. Also, a starter as good as Penny is worth more than Mota. After factoring in that Lo Duca's heavy workload usually leads to him wearing down in the second half, this looks like a clear downgrade. Expect Lo Duca to bat either third or fifth for the Marlins. Jul. 30 - 11:59 pm et

 

Where have I heard this before? Oh yeah that's right I said it.

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Paul Lo Duca - Catcher

 

Marlins acquired catcher Paul Lo Duca, outfielder Juan Encarnacion and RHP Guillermo Mota from the Dodgers for RHP Brad Penny, 1B Hee Seop Choi and LHP Bill Murphy.

We're not thrilled with this trade from Florida's perspective. They lose more offense going from Choi to Encarnacion than they gain going from Mike Redmond to Lo Duca. Also, a starter as good as Penny is worth more than Mota. After factoring in that Lo Duca's heavy workload usually leads to him wearing down in the second half, this looks like a clear downgrade. Expect Lo Duca to bat either third or fifth for the Marlins. Jul. 30 - 11:59 pm et

 

Where have I heard this before? Oh yeah that's right I said it.

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the logic is there.

 

in fact, it's flawless.

 

just because peter gammons says one thing doesn't mean we can throw logic out the window and feel differently about this trade.

 

there is no reason to deal choi for what is clearly not an upgrade on offense, and dealing penny and murphy for a reliever is absurd.

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Paul Lo Duca - Catcher

 

Marlins acquired catcher Paul Lo Duca, outfielder Juan Encarnacion and RHP Guillermo Mota from the Dodgers for RHP Brad Penny, 1B Hee Seop Choi and LHP Bill Murphy.

We're not thrilled with this trade from Florida's perspective. They lose more offense going from Choi to Encarnacion than they gain going from Mike Redmond to Lo Duca. Also, a starter as good as Penny is worth more than Mota. After factoring in that Lo Duca's heavy workload usually leads to him wearing down in the second half, this looks like a clear downgrade. Expect Lo Duca to bat either third or fifth for the Marlins. Jul. 30 - 11:59 pm et

 

Where have I heard this before? Oh yeah that's right I said it.

485947[/snapback]

yea, this coming from someone who said that dodger stadium is EVEN MORE of a pitchers stadium........ppppffffttttt :w00t

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Acquired:

C Paul Lo Duca

RHP Guillermo Mota

OF Juan Encarnacion

Acquired:

RHP Brad Penny

1B Hee Seop Choi

LHP Bill Murphy

 

Buster Olney on the Marlins: (4 out of 4)

 

Why they did it: The Marlins needed upgrades in their offense and their bullpen, adding protection to closer Armando Benitez, and they picked up a solid hitter in Lo Duca (.301 average, .351 on-base percentage), a proven run-producer in Encarnacion, and one of baseball's best set-up men in Mota.

 

The potential risk: In dealing Penny, the Marlins are gambling that the depth in their rotation will hold up -- that Josh Beckett's blister problem won't resurface, that Dontrelle Willis will pitch with greater consistency, that A.J. Burnett's command will improve as he continues to recover from surgery. Murphy has allowed 59 walks and 17 homers in 103 2/3 innings in Double A this season, while generating 113 strikeouts and a 4.08 ERA, but scouts believe he's better than those numbers.

 

The potential reward: They strengthened their lineup markedly and got Mota, against whom opponents are hitting .228. He's 8-4 with a power arm, and has generated 52 strikeouts in 63 innings.

 

Conclusion: Great trade for the Marlins, a deal that will give them a chance to win the NL East and perhaps defend their world title.

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Paul Lo Duca - Catcher

 

Marlins acquired catcher Paul Lo Duca, outfielder Juan Encarnacion and RHP Guillermo Mota from the Dodgers for RHP Brad Penny, 1B Hee Seop Choi and LHP Bill Murphy.

We're not thrilled with this trade from Florida's perspective. They lose more offense going from Choi to Encarnacion than they gain going from Mike Redmond to Lo Duca. Also, a starter as good as Penny is worth more than Mota. After factoring in that Lo Duca's heavy workload usually leads to him wearing down in the second half, this looks like a clear downgrade. Expect Lo Duca to bat either third or fifth for the Marlins. Jul. 30 - 11:59 pm et

 

Where have I heard this before? Oh yeah that's right I said it.

485947[/snapback]

yea, this coming from someone who said that dodger stadium is EVEN MORE of a pitchers stadium........ppppffffttttt :w00t

485976[/snapback]

It is

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yea, this coming from someone who said that dodger stadium is EVEN MORE of a pitchers stadium........ppppffffttttt :w00t

485976[/snapback]

do you have anything insightful to add?

 

i'm not trying to sound condescending, but during the day when we heard about this trade, i would say easily at least 80% of the board thought it was an awful deal. the 20% in the minority included a grammatically-impaired contingent with comments such as "HAHAA ! GOOD RITTANCE HEESOP CHOI AND UR OBP!!"

 

all of a sudden gammons shows up on ESPN and says the deal is good for us and that shortsighted buster olney article pops up, and quickly most people start trying to convince themselves that the trade is a good one despite the fact it flies in the face of logic.

 

jesus christ, i could show these numbers to a 10-year-old and he'd agree we aren't getting a real upgrade offensively.

 

if we're not getting an upgrade offensively, why on earth are would we give up a player we can actually keep in choi? and who in god's name would trade penny and murphy for guillermo freaking mota? there are MUCH cheaper ways of acquiring a reliever.

 

i just don't see how on earth it's possible to make a logical argument against what is stated up there. i'm not exaggerating when i say i can't recall us ever making a trade this bad.

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Shaq-Man i agree with you most of the time about certain things. However, I feel that you are wrong on this one. Choi, who was becomming my favorite player last wednesday, unfortunatly did not fare well with RISPs all year, Pitcher knew that if they threw him anything the was low and in, he'd swing. Plus, 99.9% of the time he'd take the first pitch. it could be right down the pipe at 89MPH with the words whack me on it and he'd take it. That was what always bothered me.

 

I believe IF anything, giving up Brad was the worst part of this deal, Even though I think the deal is great. But think about it. Were we going to give up Pavano? No, We knew we loose pavano or penny next year, and I was leaning towards keeping Pavano. he's in better shape and plus he eats up inning. We usually win with him on the mound. Dontrelle? No way, were paying him 300k a year and hes not even eligable for FA for another 4 years. Beckett? No way. You look at him and say "if he stays healthy, he'll just dominate." And then you have Burnett who was the ace of our staff just two years ago and is likely to be the best pithcer the marlins have ever had. That leaves Penny. He's got great velocity and pretty good control. He's out of shape and had to leave the game the other night due to that. Not holding that against him. But he was probably going to ask for a ton of money next year.

 

 

i believe if we can resign all the FA's after this season and pick up a decent #5 then we'll be set for playoff contention every year. I believe the FO knows what its doing. They know the fans wont come back if they loose key player ans no fans=no money. i just hope Loria realizes he's going to have to spend more money on this baseball thing he has going on the side.

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shaq man-

 

I looked at it the same exact way yesterday when it was in the works, but the more I have thought about it the more I have come around. Our offense will be vastly improved with Loduca over Red, and Enc over Choi. Choi has tons of potential and power, but Encarnacion is more of a proven hitter. In RBI situations he will come through more often because he has less holes at this point in their careers. The pieces are upgrades, and it changes the whole dynamic of our lineup.

 

Moto is going to make it a 7 inning game for us. the dodgers were 50 and 0 when leading after 7 this year, that is amazing. With Moto and Benitez we finally have a semblance of a bullpen.

 

What we lose in the here and now is obviously a top notch starter. If ever there was a team that could afford to lose a starter however it is us. I hope that we can acquire somebody halfway decent to be our fifth, but even if not I think Wayne could fill in and do a decent job. Give it a little time and see how improved our offense will be.

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Last night Gammons talked about the trade from the Dodgers perspective on ESPN. He was saying that Dodgers wanted to cut payroll and still get better. He was going on and on about how cheap and productive Choi was, and how Murphy was a solid prospect capable of producing for chump change.

 

Now I ask why doesn't that matter for the Marlins? Compared to our financial situation the Dodgers are the freaking Yankees!

 

We got freaking hosed in this deal. Completly screwed the team years into the future. After adding Valdez and and minor league pitcher (Seanez) we're left in no better shape than we were on July 29th. Weren't we supposed to upgrade the offense? Encarnacion is awful. Don't let the ring fool you, a .313 OBP is awful.

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I asked Jonah Keri of BaseballProspectus what he thought:

 

Ricky (DC): After trading Penny, Choi, Nunez and prospects for LoDuca, Seanez, Valdez, Encarnacion and Mota, did the Marlins get better or worse? Considering the LoDuca's second half numbers, lack of outfield depth and the fact Lenny Harris is still the first lefthanded bat off the bench I'm leaning towards the latter.

 

Jonah Keri: I have concerns about Penny. Will Carroll and others have fretted about his high injury risk before, and lately his peripherals have really gone south. Whether that's just a tired-arm/small-sample thing or not remaisn to be seen, but if Burnett stays healthy, that's still a deep staff, and dealing Penny may not necessarily hurt much. I too worry about Lo Duca's tendency to wear down in the second half, moreso in the south Florida heat. Given the way Ramon Castro crapped out this season, though, and the Marlins' unwillingness to stick Josh Willingham (sleeper prospect that I liked a lot in the BP2004 Marlins chapter), they needed an upgrade there.

 

Mota helps a bullpen that needed an arm even before the Benitez injury concerns. Encarnacion adds nothing, Seanez could help some if he stays healthy. A lot of choi's value lies in him being young and cheap, with upside.

 

If you're talking this year ONLY, I'd say it's conceivable that the Marlins may have helped their team a little, though if I were a betting man, I'd say they hurt themselves money/contract-wise without doing much to help the club, overall.

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Man you guys are haters. It hasn't even been a game yet and you have called the trade the worst thing ever. Hee Seop Choi isn't Jim Thome or DLee right now and probably will be closer to DLee when the time comes, Penny has the potential to be a staff ace but he is out of shape still and is inconsistent, and Murphy is just that, a prospect. Encarnacion is much better in right field then Cabrera is. Cabrera easily lost 5 games this year due to his defensive incapabilities.

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Great trade...you haters will find out that Beinfest owns all! HAHA Dodgers don't have a catcher now!

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They got Brent Mayne, and Ross isn't bad either.

487153[/snapback]

 

 

Mayne and Ross :thumbdown (downgrade from LoDuca and CJ)...not great for a playoff team. LoDuca :thumbup ...just about every analyst I've seen likes this trade ffor the Marlins

 

GO FISH!

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Guest FishFanInPA

Let's not get blinded by Choi's big HR against the Sillies...when was the last big hit he had before then......Choi can't hit a changeup or a curveball...Lo Duca will be fine and Mota will prove to be exactly what this team needs especially when he becomes the closer next year.

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Choi has tons of potential and power, but Encarnacion is more of a proven hitter. In RBI situations he will come through more often because he has less holes at this point in their careers.

So why is Conine racking in the RBIs? Isn't he a proven hitter?

Our youngest player (Cabrera) is leading the team in RBIs.

 

Moto is going to make it a 7 inning game for us. the dodgers were 50 and 0 when leading after 7 this year, that is amazing. With Moto and Benitez we finally have a semblance of a bullpen.

As of July 18th the Marlins are now 40-4 when leading after seven innings and they are 12-31 when they score three runs or fewer.

The bullpen wasn't as bad as we made it out to be. The offense and its incompetence with runners in scoring position was.

 

What we lose in the here and now is obviously a top notch starter. If ever there was a team that could afford to lose a starter however it is us. I hope that we can acquire somebody halfway decent to be our fifth, but even if not I think Wayne could fill in and do a decent job. Give it a little time and see how improved our offense will be.

486009[/snapback]

Are you sure about that? Injuries hit our starters pretty hard, and Willis can't be counted on for 5 innings most nights.

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Man you guys are haters. It hasn't even been a game yet and you have called the trade the worst thing ever. Hee Seop Choi isn't Jim Thome or DLee right now and probably will be closer to DLee when the time comes, Penny has the potential to be a staff ace but he is out of shape still and is inconsistent, and Murphy is just that, a prospect. Encarnacion is much better in right field then Cabrera is. Cabrera easily lost 5 games this year due to his defensive incapabilities.

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Don't let the ring fool you. Cabrera wasn't great in left last year. His fielding percentage has dropped just .005 points, while his zone rating has increased .023 points since moving from left to right. His arm is more valuable in rightfield.

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485976[/snapback]

do you have anything insightful to add?

 

i'm not trying to sound condescending, but during the day when we heard about this trade, i would say easily at least 80% of the board thought it was an awful deal. the 20% in the minority included a grammatically-impaired contingent with comments such as "HAHAA ! GOOD RITTANCE HEESOP CHOI AND UR OBP!!"

 

all of a sudden gammons shows up on ESPN and says the deal is good for us and that shortsighted buster olney article pops up, and quickly most people start trying to convince themselves that the trade is a good one despite the fact it flies in the face of logic.

 

jesus christ, i could show these numbers to a 10-year-old and he'd agree we aren't getting a real upgrade offensively.

 

if we're not getting an upgrade offensively, why on earth are would we give up a player we can actually keep in choi? and who in god's name would trade penny and murphy for guillermo freaking mota? there are MUCH cheaper ways of acquiring a reliever.

 

i just don't see how on earth it's possible to make a logical argument against what is stated up there. i'm not exaggerating when i say i can't recall us ever making a trade this bad.

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i did not change my mind at one second throughout this ordeal. i dont listen to what the jerkoffs on espn say. and if you dont believe me you could go back and check my first post on this trade way before espn dispensed their opinions on it.

and you think marlin fans are pissed?! go check up on dodger fans, they feel like they were raped. calling penny a "fatass" and saying they traded their team leader in loduca and their main set up man. so please stop letting your emotional attachments talk for you.

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