September 16, 200422 yr Instead of 2 out, we're 3.5 out. With every loss magnified, this puts their backs against the wall.... 19 games left folks, that's it. No days off, throwing 6th starters all over the place, bullpen leaking oil, AJ out for at least one start, finishing off the season with 10 straight on the road.... The next Braves series our starters will probably be Beckett, Valdez, and fill-in 6th starter. Ugh. I hate to say this, but Willis vs Livan tomorrow is a MUST WIN. Hell I guess every game is almost a must-win at this point. I'm betting we'll need a record of 13-6 to have any kind of shot at catching the Giants & Cubs. Here's how it stands: Giants 81 - 65 16 games left (1 vs Brewers, 6 vs Pads, 6 vs Dodgers, 3 vs Stros) Rough schedule, even with Barry. Cubs 79 - 64 .5 back, 19 games left (8 vs Reds, 2 vs Marlins, 3 vs Pirates, 3 vs Mets, 3 vs Braves) This schedule is why the Cubs worry me more then the Giants, but the Marlins do get 2 shots at them, they have to finish vs Atlanta, and after all they are the Cubs. Astros 79 - 67 2 back, 16 games left (6 vs Brewers, 4 vs Cards, 3 vs Giants, 3 vs Rocks) Some tough games but Stros are playing well. Florida 76 - 67 3.5 back, 19 games left (7 vs Phils, 6 vs Braves, 4 vs Expos, 2 vs Cubs) We've looked good against the Phils, not so much vs Braves & Expos. Sweeping the Cubs would be a big step. Padres 77 - 68 3.5 back, 17 games left (6 vs Giants, 5 vs Dodgers, 6 vs Arizona) Schedule's too tough I think. It would not be out of the realm of possibility to see the final standings look like this: Giants 89-73 Cubs 89-73 Astros 89-73 Marlins 89-73 Pads 86-76 Anyhow, I figure the Marlins have to at least take 5 of 7 vs Philly, 3 of 4 vs Montreal, 3 of 6 vs Atlanta, and sweep the doubleheader against the Cubs. That would give them a shot.
September 16, 200422 yr I would be shocked if there was a four-way tie. I don't always take schedules into account, because teams can still be upset by smaller teams, as the Marlins have seen the past few years when playing the Pirates. In a sport like football, where they only play 16 games, strength of schedule is key.
September 16, 200422 yr We have been playing very well against the Phillies and have been improving against Braves and Expos so i think we got a shot at this Wild Card even after losing a DH if we play like we were playing against those teams during the 9 game win streak we got a good chance of making Postseason.
September 16, 200422 yr :goodpost The Giants - Dodgers series is going to a hard-fought affair. I don't necessarily trust the Dodgers to put away their enemies to the north. The Cubs will be facing a lot of rookie pitchers who they have not seen before. Although they also get to face Ice Williams and the Mets with Al Leiter and Tom Glavine fading down the stretch. Houston hosts the Cardinals and have done weel against them in St. Louis this week. I've been dismissing them out of the race for weeks and their bats keep on proving me wrong.
September 16, 200422 yr Author These 2 losses were huge. We basically have to be about 15-4, IMO 560740[/snapback] Iowa I find myself re-reading your posts a lot lately. Can't figure out why.... :whistle
September 16, 200422 yr I think the key is to win at least two of three of the games against Atlanta this weekend, since they are the hardest team we have to play besides the Cubs for the rest of the season. We haven't had much trouble with Philly or Montreal.
September 16, 200422 yr We should know by Monday night if we have a legitimate shot. Unless Jean comes here and washes away another Marlins home stand.
September 16, 200422 yr i think this dug the hole in the grave. if we lose again tomorrow,throw dirt on the grave cuz were done.
September 16, 200422 yr We have Valdez pitching against the Braves i miss Brad Penny already 560822[/snapback] Isn't Penny injured?
September 16, 200422 yr We have Valdez pitching against the Braves i miss Brad Penny already 560822[/snapback] Isn't Penny injured? 560825[/snapback] oh yea almost forgot
September 16, 200422 yr Instead of 2 out, we're 3.5 out. With every loss magnified, this puts their backs against the wall.... 19 games left folks, that's it. No days off, throwing 6th starters all over the place, bullpen leaking oil, AJ out for at least one start, finishing off the season with 10 straight on the road.... The next Braves series our starters will probably be Beckett, Valdez, and fill-in 6th starter. Ugh. I hate to say this, but Willis vs Livan tomorrow is a MUST WIN. Hell I guess every game is almost a must-win at this point. I'm betting we'll need a record of 13-6 to have any kind of shot at catching the Giants & Cubs. Here's how it stands: Giants 81 - 65 16 games left (1 vs Brewers, 6 vs Pads, 6 vs Dodgers, 3 vs Stros) Rough schedule, even with Barry. Cubs 79 - 64 .5 back, 19 games left (8 vs Reds, 2 vs Marlins, 3 vs Pirates, 3 vs Mets, 3 vs Braves) This schedule is why the Cubs worry me more then the Giants, but the Marlins do get 2 shots at them, they have to finish vs Atlanta, and after all they are the Cubs. Astros 79 - 67 2 back, 16 games left (6 vs Brewers, 4 vs Cards, 3 vs Giants, 3 vs Rocks) Some tough games but Stros are playing well. Florida 76 - 67 3.5 back, 19 games left (7 vs Phils, 6 vs Braves, 4 vs Expos, 2 vs Cubs) We've looked good against the Phils, not so much vs Braves & Expos. Sweeping the Cubs would be a big step. Padres 77 - 68 3.5 back, 17 games left (6 vs Giants, 5 vs Dodgers, 6 vs Arizona) Schedule's too tough I think. It would not be out of the realm of possibility to see the final standings look like this: Giants 89-73 Cubs 89-73 Astros 89-73 Marlins 89-73 Pads 86-76 Anyhow, I figure the Marlins have to at least take 5 of 7 vs Philly, 3 of 4 vs Montreal, 3 of 6 vs Atlanta, and sweep the doubleheader against the Cubs. That would give them a shot. 560736[/snapback] Giants have it a lot tougher than I originally thought. Those last last three series against Pads, LA and Astros can only help our cause. Those teams will be up on each other where the only team we play that is in this hunt right now is the Cubs. Of course, we have to do well against Philly, Braves, and Expos too. But the Astros also have to play the Cards 4 more times - as long as they arent shutting it down for the playoffs. And the Padres have a tough schedule down there at the end. These two lossses in a row sting - a lot. But they dont kill the dream. We still have 3 more games to play at this point than the other teams in contention. We still control our fate - but we have to win. I think 14 games down the stretch here should do the trick. Sweeping the Cubs is a must.
September 16, 200422 yr Not looking pretty, but we are still in it. I'm very concerned with AJ being out for one game and the 6th starter situation.
September 16, 200422 yr were still in this, but if we dont win today, the possibility of getting up is not too good. some of the Marlins really want to go home and see their wives, and all of them are tired. They want to win this but i think they cant wait till post season. I cant say i disagree. if we dont get them this year, theres always next yr.
September 16, 200422 yr Some random thoughts: Who the hell is pitching Friday? We'll see how bad this team wants the playoffs by how pissed they come out today. If they want it, they'll blow Livan out of the water. A sweep vs the Braves is not only possible, but it would be huge. As long as the bats show up, they haven't been doing so hot. AJ being bumped back could give us the oppurtunity to shoot out Pavz and AJ in the DH on Monday. That would be huge. Attention Offense: Hit the ball in the frigging air! Other random thought: anyone who wants to beat the Marlins in the playoffs should just start four rookie ball pitchers who have never pitched a major league game. Four game sweep guaranteed. And this isn't something we've just done this year, either. Different year, same garbage.
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