I don't mean to be a rally killer here, but I am a bit nervous about our starting pitching. I think it has suffered the most losses since last year with little to rebolster it. I think it is perhaps the most fragile in the NL east next to possibly the Naitonals. I think it has actually become a weakness.

 

Since last year we have lost our two "best producing" starters in Pavano and Penny(I don't want to say best because most would argue that Beckett and Burnett are more talented than Pavano and Penny.) And what have we replaced them with but an aging 38 year old Leiter who averaged 5.788 innings per start and Valdez who led baseball in fewest innings per start with 5.40 and had a subpar 5.19 ERA (4.50 w/ the Marlins). Add that to Willis who failed to go at least five innings in 9 of his 32 starts (28% of his starts) and failed to throw 3 consecutive quality starts last year. Not to mention that Beckett has yet to go a full season without getting injured and is always at risk with his blister problem. Our surest starter is a guy coming off a Tommy John surgery and finished last year with a sore elbow.

 

I think this team was severely hurt by the losses of Pavano and Penny last year. Pavano was a stopper last year who was second in baseball averagin 7.17 innings per start. Penny had an ERA in the low 3's with us and consistently gave us solid starts. Every starter we sent out last year except for Oliver then Valdez, and Willis was a threat to have a great start and carry the team. We don't have that anymore. I think this team's strength has quickly become its weakness, and I don't see it holding up throughout the year. Starting pitcher is the most important aspect of baseball, and it is not something that the Delgado signing with added offense will be able to cover up.

 

The innings/start is perhaps the most crucial statistic to a team's success in the regular season. I don't care how good of a bullpen a team has or how improved ours is (I would argue anyway that it is not that improved). You do not want your bullpen pitching 3 or more innings every game. There is a reason why they are relievers and not starters: they simply are not as good as starters. If we consistently put games in the hands of Riedling, Spooneybarger, Alfonseca, or any other middle reliever in baseball, - even the best ones - our team will not succeed. We win when we have top-flight starters controlling the game.

 

With all that said, if Beckett and Burnett put it together, we will be very formidable. But isn't that the condition for every team in the majors to win? If any team's top two starters have tremendous years, they will be playoff and possibly WS contenders.

 

Overall, I think this year's starting staff is much weaker than last year's and weaker than it was in 2003. I get the feeling that people on this board think we have the same quality starting pitching as we did the last two years and just added a big time offensive player that makes our hitting formidable. But in reality, this team lacks that starting pitching.

 

Not to beat a dead horse, but all this started when we lost Penny for a Lo Duca and Mota. But we could have survived that b/c we still had Pavano. Now after having lost both and not really replacing them this team, in reality, has a major hole now: starting pitching.

 

All this begs the question, "Why didn't we invest the Delgado money in starting pitching?" My guess is that signing Delgado and having hitting is a "sexier" option then adding less prominent starting pitching (i.e. Vazquez). But I argue that though Delgado's signing makes for more headlines, bolstered starting pitching make for more wins.

The eternal prospects just need to step up. That's all

Who?

 

Who would you "invest" in? Who's out there?

 

Would you suggest we should have invested in Kris Benson?

 

Certainly not Pavano at what he signed for.

 

Adding RBIs makes all pitchers better and it's cheaper.

 

That said, great post. Alot of work went into it.

Whoever wrote that is a moron.

 

Hmm... Delgado to make the lineup and rotation amazing or a starting pitcher to make the rotation untouchable and the lineup average...

 

Keep in mind there's no starting pitchers on the market, and signing pitchers long term is a huge risk. I'll go with Delgado. Hell, I'd rather have Delgado and Leiter than Pavano and... Conine?

Whoever wrote that is a moron.

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grow up WC.

In my opinion, our starters need to stay healthy. If they do we have an awesome starting 4 and valdez who is solid. And if our pitchers can give us 6 good innings on average we have the bullpen to go 7,8,9.

Either or both Burnett and Beckett will step up. You have to remember that despite the fact that they were injured a lot last year, they still posted decent ERA's... we just gave them bad run support. If they stay healthy, they will put up great ERA's. If they improve by half a run from last year (which they can certainly do if they stay health), their ERA's will be 3.17 and 3.29 or something like that. With our offense, that kind of ERA will give them 15-18 wins each. A little improvement from D-Train should be good too... say an ERA of around 3.70, and let's say Leiter has an ERA of 3.50, with Valdez putting up a 4.30... and we're good. Rotation will have ERA's of 3.17, 3.29, 3.50, 3.70, and 4.30. You combine that with 825-875 in runs scored and a pen that gives you an ERA of 4... and we're looking at 100 wins or more. That would come out us scoring 5.1-5.4 runs per game and giving up around 4. We're good. :thumbup

I think he makes a lot of good points. A lot of our good feelings about our staff are based on potential, not results. We really need AJ and Josh to step it up this year. DW needs to be consistent and Leiter needs to average at least 6 innings per start. When you think about it, we do have quite a bit of question marks on the staff.

Either or both Burnett and Beckett will step up. You have to remember that despite the fact that they were injured a lot last year, they still posted decent ERA's... we just gave them bad run support. If they stay healthy, they will put up great ERA's. If they improve by half a run from last year (which they can certainly do if they stay health), their ERA's will be 3.17 and 3.29 or something like that. With our offense, that kind of ERA will give them 15-18 wins each. A little improvement from D-Train should be good too... say an ERA of around 3.70, and let's say Leiter has an ERA of 3.50, with Valdez putting up a 4.30... and we're good. Rotation will have ERA's of 3.17, 3.29, 3.50, 3.70, and 4.30. You combine that with 825-875 in runs scored and a pen that gives you an ERA of 4... and we're looking at 100 wins or more. That would come out us scoring 5.1-5.4 runs per game and giving up around 4. We're good. :thumbup

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exactly, problem last year was run support, our offense was pathetic during the first half, and above avg. during the second half, this year it won't be a problem. Although I'll admit that I share some of the concerns regarding our starting pitching, I'm confident...these guys are going to do their job, make no mistake about it.

Whoever wrote that is a moron.

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Obviously the thread starter wrote it. Someone who could not notice that would be the only moron among us. That was called this person's opinion. An opinion backed up by statistics and well thought out reasoning unlike your opinion there brought on by immaturity and nonsense.

 

I do however disagree with this posting as I believe Delgado does make the team immensly better. Marlins2003 referred to the fact there were limited options as far as starting pitchers go and he was correct in that sentiment. You can ony sign what is there. For what use is a pen without paper to write on?

You have a valid point. When I read the ESPN article on most durable pitchers I wasn't pleased to see that Ismael was the pitchers with the fewest IP per start and Pavs as the pitchers with the second highest IP per start. Especially because we also have Leiter.

 

However, bullpen does matter. Our bullpen was very thin last year and it was in part disguised because of Pavano but as the season progressed it was taxed more and more because Benitez went down and because we replaced Penny with Valdez.

 

With that said we have a much deeper pen at the moment. Burnett will also be able to go out longer now that he is comfortably back from TJ surgery. He also missed alot of time last year as did Beckett. Our rotation shouldn't drop off too much. If Beckett and Burnett stay healthy it will be better than it was last year because we have that bullpen depth that could help out pitchers like Valdez and Leiter.

 

Plus, I think most imporantly it's more logical to look at whether or not Leiter and Valdez have a historical problem with pitching that few of IP per start. It may have been a fluke last year.

Beckett and Burnett just need to stay healthy and they will go a lot of innings... Willis can only improve in his 3rd year in the bigs. A deep bullpen will help Leiter and Ismael. I think we'll be fine.

 

Though, like i said earlier, I would like us to find a 6th starter/long relief pitcher that we can rely on when needed.

Marlins last year had the 8th worse offense in MLB and 6th worse in NL.

 

We also had Beckett out for about 7 starts, Burnett out for over 10, and A weaker bullpen ...And we still managed to go over 500.

 

Now with an improved offense and a stronger pen we should be able to be in the top tier of the league even if our SP suffer due to injury.

Who?

 

Who would you "invest" in? Who's out there?

 

Would you suggest we should have invested in Kris Benson?

 

Certainly not Pavano at what he signed for.

 

Adding RBIs makes all pitchers better and it's cheaper.

 

That said, great post. Alot of work went into it.

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First off thank you for the compliment. I would have invested in Odalis Perez, Matt Clement, depending upon injury Wade Miller, possibly though not likely Millwood, considered signing Pavano for that much, and looked into trading for Vazquez w/o giving up Burnett.

 

But overall that there were few stud starting pitchers this year shows how valuable of an asset we had with our starting pitcher last year and why we shouldn't have given up Penny. I would have invested in keeping Penny last year. There were guys on the market comparable to Lo Duca and Mota, but there really wasn't someone comparable to Penny who is a young still developing power pitcher who is not overpaid.

 

It is very hard to get top-level starting pitching top to bottom, and the teams that have it win. Look at the teams like the Rangers who will not win until they get pitching, which they are really struggling to do w/o paying a high premium for only mediocre guys.

I too don't believe our starting pitching is as good as it needs to be to make a serious run at another championship, but we'll definitely be in the playoff picture come trade deadline time, and I think we should make a serious run at another quality starter when the deadline comes around, and we could then move Valdez to the pen.

Another thing, we need balance. Last year we were all pitching and defense with average to below average Offense. Balance is the name of the game.

 

The way I see it now:

Offense - Above Average

Starting Pitching - Above Average

Relief Pitching - Average (maybe slightly above avg)

Bench - Below Average

Defense - Above Average

The starting staff is among the best in the NL if they are healthy. I think AJ is done with his TJ injury and will make all of his starts this year. Dontrelle is a year older and a year wiser, and should improve on that 28% stat. Ish isn't amazing or anything, but he's a 5th starter and a solid one at that.

 

The two question marks really are Josh and Al in my mind. There's the issue of innings with Al brought up by many Mets fans and his question of getting deep into counts, but I think alot of that had to do with the defense he had behind him. Anyone who thinks pitchers don't think about things like this is sadly mistaken - pitchers pitch certain ways based on their defense and run support (we saw this last year, our starters often were burned because they knew they had to overpitch to compensate for a lackluster offense and in doing so they made key mistakes they otherwise would not make), and bullpen (again, our starters won't have to think this year they must go 8 innings of shutout ball a night to win). I think Al will be alot better this year.

 

The question really is Josh. If he is healthy, and he and AJ perform to just half of what they are capable of, this team wins the division. If AJ and Josh perform to their max, two of the CY Young finalists will be pitching for the Teal and Black. Simple as that. The FO has done their part, they've put the best team they can on the field. Now it's just on the players to do their part and play to their abilities. If they play to their capabilities there isn't a team that can beat them 2 out of 3.

The FO has done their part, they've put the best team they can on the field.

 

Agree. Now is up to the coaching staff and players to perform. There is some pressure on AJ and Beckett to finally have their break out years. I think they are ready.

 

In addition, our pitching staff will play a lot more relaxed with better run support. Last year I can image our starting pitchers thinking "damn, either I go 8 innings and hold the lead or it is plus one on the Loss column"

If our pitching is as good as last year, we will make the playoffs and have a great shot at winning the division and maybe making a run at the WS. The pitching staff doesn't even have to be better than last year to put us in the playoffs... a staff ERA of 4 is good enough for a playoff birth with this offense. If we can pitch better... closer to potential (say 3.60-3.90 ERA), with our offense we'll run away with the division and should be the favorites to come out of the NL.

This season pretty much rests on the shoulders/arms of AJ and Beckett. If they perform to their abilities and stay healthy this team will compete, and have a pretty damn good shot at the playoffs/world series. Dontrelle being another year older and more experienced should go a little deeper into games.

I was thinking about the innings thing a while back and thought that maybe they should split up Leiter and Dontrelle because of the bullpen rest factor.

 

1. AJ/Josh

2. Leiter

3. AJ/Josh

4. Dontrelle

5. Ish

This season pretty much rests on the shoulders/arms of AJ and Beckett. If they perform to their abilities and stay healthy this team will compete, and have a pretty damn good shot at the playoffs/world series. Dontrelle being another year older and more experienced should go a little deeper into games.

I was thinking about the innings thing a while back and thought that maybe they should split up Leiter and Dontrelle because of the bullpen rest factor.

 

1. AJ/Josh

2. Leiter

3. AJ/Josh

4. Dontrelle

5. Ish

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Plus, R-L-R-L-R would cause havoc on opposing lineups, forcing players to be in and out without getting any consistency

I would still consider trading for Vazquez if Arizona would give some cash back. It seems like a smart move to me if the Marlins could afford him since they would have him under contract for a few years.

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I would love for them to do this. It seems to me people are forgetting how good Vasquez really is after one bad year in new york. IMO he would be the best pitcher on our staff. I read an article in the sun-sentinal saying that it may still be possible to acquire him without giving up Burnett, which would be amazing. Imagine giving away two guys we dont need like Encarnacion and Stokes for a solid workhorse pitcher like Vasquez. Stokes still has pretty good value, but not to us because obviously we have Delgado there for a few years then probably Cabrera will play first. If thius would be acceptable to the Dbacks, by all means the Marlins need to do it. Keeping Valdez as a long reliever and insurance in case of injury would be nice as well.

i think this team is awesome. I really do and i love the lineup and the defense and everything is good.

 

BUT

 

the pitching IMO is the problem because alot of up and down pitchers who dont got the stamina and our always welcome to the injured list. I think we can have a dominant season if these pitchers get it together.

Leiter still got it though his stamina is low. Willis just needs to be consistant. Burnett stop getting hurt. Valdez no probs with you just keep doing what your doing. Beckett ahh i hate u and even when ur good i cant like you that much. He has good stuff but he is not consistant and he is always hurt and once in a while he will have great games but i think while his value is stil high that we get rid of him. Bullpen looks scary to me. Its either gonna be real good or real bad. I like these guys but they just gotta do there job. also i believe we need 1-2 more lefties. all we got is perisho and it seems like there alot more people who want him outta here than want him here. i want him here. also how about this:

 

Trade ENC,Beckett.

 

receive a:

SP who can pitch in the major leagues not some always hurt guy or a minors guy.

RP who is lefty.

and some cheap OF like glanville,roberts,goodwin. something like that. also i have faith in aguila i think he can become a pretty good ball player.

i think this team is awesome. I really do and i love the lineup and the defense and everything is good.

 

BUT

 

the pitching IMO is the problem because alot of up and down pitchers who dont got the stamina and our always welcome to the injured list. I think we can have a dominant season if these pitchers get it together.

Leiter still got it though his stamina is low. Willis just needs to be consistant. Burnett stop getting hurt. Valdez no probs with you just keep doing what your doing. Beckett ahh i hate u and even when ur good i cant like you that much. He has good stuff but he is not consistant and he is always hurt and once in a while he will have great games but i think while his value is stil high that we get rid of him. Bullpen looks scary to me. Its either gonna be real good or real bad. I like these guys but they just gotta do there job. also i believe we need 1-2 more lefties. all we got is perisho and it seems like there alot more people who want him outta here than want him here. i want him here. also how about this:

 

Trade ENC,Beckett.

 

receive a:

SP who can pitch in the major leagues not some always hurt guy or a minors guy.

RP who is lefty.

and some cheap OF like glanville,roberts,goodwin. something like that. also i have faith in aguila i think he can become a pretty good ball player.

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Noooo. If pitching is the problem, why trade away your best pitcher?

Anyway, you cant trade Beckett now, if ever, because his value is as low as it will ever be. Beckett will be a star. Whether you like him or not (I dont really like him either) you cant deny that he has always been regarded as one of baseball's best pitching prospects, plus hes shown he can be absolutely dominating on the biggest stage in the game. All he needs is health. Health is alot to ask of him I know, but trust me if he can stay healthy you will be glad we have him.

 

We also have Bentz in the bullpen. Whether or not he makes the team though is yet to be seen.

 

What the Marlins need to do to improve their pitching, as Ive said before, is trade Stokes, who they no longer have a need for.

yeah i think we can get rid of stokes now. and i dont have faith in bentz. we need someone else.