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Because this is such a long post, I wanted to start a new thread so that hopefully more people read it. Anyway...

 

i know there are no stats for this, but it seems like when Pierre gets on base, and promptly steals a base, the Marlins seem to score in the inning.....

 

Well, you can actually go through the game logs and figure out how often this happens. Hmm...why don't I do that?

 

Times Pierre has scored after stealing:

 

1. Game 3: Pierre steals 2nd. Pudge follows with a triple and Pierre scores. So here, Pierre would've scored whether he had stolen second or not.

 

2. Game 21: Pierre steals 2nd with no outs, then gets to third on a wild pitch. Pudge follows with a 2-run homer. Again, Pierre would've scored whether he had stolen second or not.

 

3. Game 27: With one out, Pierre steals 3rd. He then scores on an Encarnacion groundout. The next batter, Lowell, lines out. This is the first instance where Pierre scores a run that wouldn't have been scored had he not stolen. Oh, and the Marlins lost this game 7-1.

 

4. Game 36: With one out, Pierre steals 3rd. Lowell follows with a sac fly to score Pierre. The next batter, Pudge, lines out. This is the second instance where Pierre scores a run that wouldn't have been scored had he not stolen. The Marlins lost this game as well, 3-2.

 

5. Game 39: With no outs, Pierre steals 2nd. Castillo follows with a single, Pierre moves to 3rd. Lowell then grounds into a DP that scores Pierre. Lee walks, and Encarnacion grounds out. This is the third instance where Pierre scores a run that wouldn't have been scored had he not stolen.

 

6. Game 39: Later in the same game, Pierre steals 2nd again with none out. Castillo follows with a single, Lowell follows with a single (that scores Pierre), Derrek Lee follows with a walk. Later, Hollandsworth hits a sac fly to score Castillo. Here's another situation where Pierre would've scored even if he hadn't stolen, since the next three batters all reached base anyway.

 

7. Game 39: Same game still, Pierre again steals 2nd with one out. Castillo, the next batter, pops out. Lowell, the next batter, homers to left to score Pierre. Again, Pierre would've scored whether he had stolen or not.

 

8. Game 54: With no outs, Pierre steals 2nd. The next three batters all single. Again, Pierre would've scored whether he had stolen or not.

 

9. Game 57: With no outs, Pierre steals 2nd and gets to 3rd on a bad throw. Castillo then grounds out. Pudge singles to score Pierre. Lowell hits into a DP. This is the fourth instance where Pierre scores a run that wouldn't have been scored had he not stolen.

 

10. Game 60: With no outs, Pierre steals 2nd. Castillo grounds out and moves Pierre to 3rd. Pudge singles to score Pierre. Lowell hits into a DP. This is the fifth instance where Pierre scores a run that wouldn't have been scored had he not stolen. Marlins lose this game, 6-5.

 

11. Game 65: With no outs, Pierre steals 2nd. Castillo sacrifices him to 3rd, but the ball is thrown away, and Pierre ends up scoring while Castillo ends up at 2nd. Pudge then grounds out. Lowell then singles to score Castillo from 2nd. Encarnacion then strikes out. Lee then hits a 2-run-homer. Since we can't assume that Castillo would've been bunting had Pierre been on first, I'll give Pierre the benefit of the doubt and say this is the sixth instance where Pierre scores a run that wouldn't have been scored had he not stolen. Marlins win 12-4.

 

12. Game 74: With no outs, Pierre steals 2nd. Castillo grounds out. Pudge reaches on an infield single. Lowell hits a 3-run-homer. Again, Pierre would've scored even if he hadn't stolen a base.

 

13. Game 80: With one out, Pierre steals 2nd. Pierre then steals 3rd as well. Castillo walks. Then, on a wild pitch, Pierre scores and Castillo moves to 2nd. Pudge reaches on an infield single. The next two batters got out. Here, if Pierre doesn't steal, he still moves to 2nd on Castillo's walk, moves to 3rd on the wild pitch, and scores on Pudge's single.

 

14. Game 82: With no outs, Pierre steals 2nd, then steals 3rd. Castillo strikes out. Pudge grounds out, with the grounder scoring Pierre. Lowell flies out. This is the seventh instance where Pierre scores a run that wouldn't have been scored had he not stolen. Marlins win, 10-9.

 

15. Game 84: With no outs, Pierre steals 2nd. Castillo reaches on an infield single. Pudge hits a 3-run-homer. Again, Pierre would've scored even if he hadn't stolen.

 

16. Game 84: Later in the same game, with no outs, Pierre steals 2nd, then steals 3rd. Castillo hits a sac fly to score Pierre. Pudge grounds out. Lowell singles. Lee hits a 2-run-homer. Here, if Pierre never steals, he'd still score on Lee's home run.

 

17. Game 87: With one out, Pierre steals 3rd base. Pudge then reaches on an error and Pierre scores from 3rd. Lowell flies out to center. Encarnacion flies out to right. Since we can't be sure Lowell's fly would've been deep enough to score Pierre, I'll say This is the eighth instance where Pierre scores a run that wouldn't have been scored had he not stolen.

 

18. Game 91: With 2 outs, Pierre steals 2nd. Castillo walks. Pudge singles to 2nd, Pierre scores. Lowell pops out. Here, Pierre would've ended up on second anyway after Castillo's walk, and Pudge's single would've driven him in.

 

19. Game 95: With no outs, Pierre steals 2nd. He gets to 3rd on a wild pitch. Castillo pops out. Pudge singles, scoring Pierre. Lowell then hits a 2-run-homer. So Pierre would've scored whether he had stolen or not.

 

20. Game 95: Later in the same game, with one out, Pierre steals 2nd and then 3rd. Pudge hits a sac fly to score Pierre. Lowell walks. Encarnacion singles to left. Lee grounds out. Here, Pierre probably would've scored from 2nd on Encarnacion's single considering his speed, but since we don't know for sure, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say This is the ninth instance where Pierre scores a run that wouldn't have been scored had he not stolen.

 

21. Game 96: With no outs. Pierre steals 2nd. Gets to 3rd on a throwing error. Castillo grounds out. Pudge hits a 2-run-homer. Again, Pierre would've scored whether he had stolen or not.

 

So, after all that research, we've come up with 9 instances this season where Pierre's stolen base allowed him to score a run that wouldn't have scored had he not stolen the base. 9 instances. And Pierre's been caught stealing and/or picked off 13 times. Now tell me, does it still seem like Pierre's stolen bases start Marlin rallies?

 

Now, I'm sure the obvious retort will be "you don't know that those batters get the same pitches if Pierre doesn't steal, and so you don't know if you'll get the same outcome." But this misses the point. Pierre has scored a total of 21 times this season after stealing a base. BUT, you have to accept the fact that on some of those occasions, he would've scored anyway. How many times would he have scored anyway? Well, we obviously can't know for sure. But even if you give Pierre the benefit of the doubt and say that only 5 of those times he would've scored anyway, that results in 16 runs Pierre has scored that he wouldn't have scored if he hadn't stolen. But Pierre's also been caught stealing and/or picked off 13 times. So that's 13 instances where Pierre gives away an out on the basepaths and thus hurts the Marlins chances to start a rally. The end result is 16 extra runs scored from his attempted steals, but 13 outs given away from his attempted steals. Do you still think Pierre's steals are that valuable?

Amazing Post man...

Now, I'm sure the obvious retort will be "you don't know that those batters get the same pitches if Pierre doesn't steal, and so you don't know if you'll get the same outcome."

 

That has to be taken into account. And it's basically a fact that a batter has more confidence when he's at the plate with a man on second than when he's on first.

 

Pierre's steals are very valuable, and any team would love to have a guy that can steal 60+ bases a season.

im impressed, but you have way too much time on your hands.....and i'll also say this, pierre stealing ignites the offense, it automatically puts a runner in scoring position, this makes the pitchers nervous and makes the batters eyes light up as they see the opportunity for a big inning, statisticlly, you're right, but i wonder how dead those innings would be had pierre not gotten those steals, pierre puts a fire into this team and i think it makes them play better....

dont get me wrong though, your post rocks, for real :thumbup

Yea, you get major props for putting that together...

 

I agree with Fishfan. Statistically you're right, but sentimentally not so much...

first of all, im glad you actually thought your whole idea out and actually provided facts to go with it.... unlike some on this board

 

i gotta say that for some reason or another, whenever Pierre steals a base, good things happen.... i dont know why, but usually runs are put on the board in bunches....

 

i think Juan really screws up a pitcher when he is 'dancing' on the basepaths...

 

nonetheless, this is one of the best posts i have ever seen

Pierre's stealing does more than get him in scoring position. Just having him on base effects the way the pitcher pitches and the way we are defended hence giving us a better opportunity to score.

Pierre is more valuable as a distraction to a pitcher which allows our hitters to receive more "mistakes" from the pitcher and be able to get a hit.

In actuality steals just normally make a lot of difference. Pierre has no bearing on whether Pudge or Castillo get a hit or not (except for maybe distracting the pitcher a bit). All he can do is get himself into position to score. The rest depends on the team. Steals are an individual stat, I don't think it has a tremendous bearing on how the team does. It's why so many analysts poo-poo'd the "speed" factor the Marlins were going into the season with. Personally I think Pierre does a great job though. Keep him running.

 

Good work DownRodeo. Sick, but good work.

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and i'll also say this, pierre stealing ignites the offense, it automatically puts a runner in scoring position, this makes the pitchers nervous and makes the batters eyes light up as they see the opportunity for a big inning, statisticlly, you're right, but i wonder how dead those innings would be had pierre not gotten those steals, pierre puts a fire into this team and i think it makes them play better....

I think you missed a key aspect of my argument. We know exactly how many times Pierre has, as you say, "ignited the offense" with his steals. 21 times to be exact. 21 times he has stolen a base and gone on to score (after all, if he steals a base and doesn't get driven in, you can't say that he's ignited the offense). But of those 21 times, you have to acknowledge that during some of those occasions, the offense would've "ignited" anyway, even if Pierre hadn't stolen. And if you're going to make the case that Pierre's steals ignite the offense (which they've only done, at max, 21 times), then you also have to consider the flipside, that 13 times Pierre's outs on the basepaths have deflated the offense.

 

Pierre is more valuable as a distraction to a pitcher which allows our hitters to receive more "mistakes" from the pitcher and be able to get a hit.

 

There is no way to tell if Pierre being on base distracts the pitcher. Just because a batter gets a hit while Pierre is on base doesn't mean that said hit was a direct result of the pitcher being distracted. Unless you can prove that batters receive more "mistakes" with Pierre on base, then you can't just accept this as fact. And just because Tommy Hutton or any other announcer says that Juan Pierre distracts the pitcher doesn't necessarily make it so. (Actually, you could theoretically test out the argument that Pierre distracts pitchers. You'd have to look at pitchers' stats while Pierre is on base and see if they're significantly different from their stats when Pierre is not on base. This would be a rather tedious undertaking though).

Times Pierre has scored after stealing:

 

1. Game 3: Pierre steals 2nd. Pudge follows with a triple and Pierre scores. So here, Pierre would've scored whether he had stolen second or not.

 

2. Game 21: Pierre steals 2nd with no outs, then gets to third on a wild pitch. Pudge follows with a 2-run homer. Again, Pierre would've scored whether he had stolen second or not.

 

3. Game 27: With one out, Pierre steals 3rd. He then scores on an Encarnacion groundout. The next batter, Lowell, lines out. This is the first instance where Pierre scores a run that wouldn't have been scored had he not stolen. Oh, and the Marlins lost this game 7-1.

 

4. Game 36: With one out, Pierre steals 3rd. Lowell follows with a sac fly to score Pierre. The next batter, Pudge, lines out. This is the second instance where Pierre scores a run that wouldn't have been scored had he not stolen. The Marlins lost this game as well, 3-2.

 

5. Game 39: With no outs, Pierre steals 2nd. Castillo follows with a single, Pierre moves to 3rd. Lowell then grounds into a DP that scores Pierre. Lee walks, and Encarnacion grounds out. This is the third instance where Pierre scores a run that wouldn't have been scored had he not stolen.

 

6. Game 39: Later in the same game, Pierre steals 2nd again with none out. Castillo follows with a single, Lowell follows with a single (that scores Pierre), Derrek Lee follows with a walk. Later, Hollandsworth hits a sac fly to score Castillo. Here's another situation where Pierre would've scored even if he hadn't stolen, since the next three batters all reached base anyway.

 

7. Game 39: Same game still, Pierre again steals 2nd with one out. Castillo, the next batter, pops out. Lowell, the next batter, homers to left to score Pierre. Again, Pierre would've scored whether he had stolen or not.

 

8. Game 54: With no outs, Pierre steals 2nd. The next three batters all single. Again, Pierre would've scored whether he had stolen or not.

 

9. Game 57: With no outs, Pierre steals 2nd and gets to 3rd on a bad throw. Castillo then grounds out. Pudge singles to score Pierre. Lowell hits into a DP. This is the fourth instance where Pierre scores a run that wouldn't have been scored had he not stolen.

 

10. Game 60: With no outs, Pierre steals 2nd. Castillo grounds out and moves Pierre to 3rd. Pudge singles to score Pierre. Lowell hits into a DP. This is the fifth instance where Pierre scores a run that wouldn't have been scored had he not stolen. Marlins lose this game, 6-5.

 

11. Game 65: With no outs, Pierre steals 2nd. Castillo sacrifices him to 3rd, but the ball is thrown away, and Pierre ends up scoring while Castillo ends up at 2nd. Pudge then grounds out. Lowell then singles to score Castillo from 2nd. Encarnacion then strikes out. Lee then hits a 2-run-homer. Since we can't assume that Castillo would've been bunting had Pierre been on first, I'll give Pierre the benefit of the doubt and say this is the sixth instance where Pierre scores a run that wouldn't have been scored had he not stolen. Marlins win 12-4.

 

12. Game 74: With no outs, Pierre steals 2nd. Castillo grounds out. Pudge reaches on an infield single. Lowell hits a 3-run-homer. Again, Pierre would've scored even if he hadn't stolen a base.

 

13. Game 80: With one out, Pierre steals 2nd. Pierre then steals 3rd as well. Castillo walks. Then, on a wild pitch, Pierre scores and Castillo moves to 2nd. Pudge reaches on an infield single. The next two batters got out. Here, if Pierre doesn't steal, he still moves to 2nd on Castillo's walk, moves to 3rd on the wild pitch, and scores on Pudge's single.

 

14. Game 82: With no outs, Pierre steals 2nd, then steals 3rd. Castillo strikes out. Pudge grounds out, with the grounder scoring Pierre. Lowell flies out. This is the seventh instance where Pierre scores a run that wouldn't have been scored had he not stolen. Marlins win, 10-9.

 

15. Game 84: With no outs, Pierre steals 2nd. Castillo reaches on an infield single. Pudge hits a 3-run-homer. Again, Pierre would've scored even if he hadn't stolen.

 

16. Game 84: Later in the same game, with no outs, Pierre steals 2nd, then steals 3rd. Castillo hits a sac fly to score Pierre. Pudge grounds out. Lowell singles. Lee hits a 2-run-homer. Here, if Pierre never steals, he'd still score on Lee's home run.

 

17. Game 87: With one out, Pierre steals 3rd base. Pudge then reaches on an error and Pierre scores from 3rd. Lowell flies out to center. Encarnacion flies out to right. Since we can't be sure Lowell's fly would've been deep enough to score Pierre, I'll say This is the eighth instance where Pierre scores a run that wouldn't have been scored had he not stolen.

 

18. Game 91: With 2 outs, Pierre steals 2nd. Castillo walks. Pudge singles to 2nd, Pierre scores. Lowell pops out. Here, Pierre would've ended up on second anyway after Castillo's walk, and Pudge's single would've driven him in.

 

19. Game 95: With no outs, Pierre steals 2nd. He gets to 3rd on a wild pitch. Castillo pops out. Pudge singles, scoring Pierre. Lowell then hits a 2-run-homer. So Pierre would've scored whether he had stolen or not.

 

20. Game 95: Later in the same game, with one out, Pierre steals 2nd and then 3rd. Pudge hits a sac fly to score Pierre. Lowell walks. Encarnacion singles to left. Lee grounds out. Here, Pierre probably would've scored from 2nd on Encarnacion's single considering his speed, but since we don't know for sure, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say This is the ninth instance where Pierre scores a run that wouldn't have been scored had he not stolen.

 

21. Game 96: With no outs. Pierre steals 2nd. Gets to 3rd on a throwing error. Castillo grounds out. Pudge hits a 2-run-homer. Again, Pierre would've scored whether he had stolen or not.

 

So, after all that research, we've come up with 9 instances this season where Pierre's stolen base allowed him to score a run that wouldn't have scored had he not stolen the base. 9 instances. And Pierre's been caught stealing and/or picked off 13 times. Now tell me, does it still seem like Pierre's stolen bases start Marlin rallies?

 

Now, I'm sure the obvious retort will be "you don't know that those batters get the same pitches if Pierre doesn't steal, and so you don't know if you'll get the same outcome." But this misses the point. Pierre has scored a total of 21 times this season after stealing a base. BUT, you have to accept the fact that on some of those occasions, he would've scored anyway. How many times would he have scored anyway? Well, we obviously can't know for sure. But even if you give Pierre the benefit of the doubt and say that only 5 of those times he would've scored anyway, that results in 16 runs Pierre has scored that he wouldn't have scored if he hadn't stolen. But Pierre's also been caught stealing and/or picked off 13 times. So that's 13 instances where Pierre gives away an out on the basepaths and thus hurts the Marlins chances to start a rally. The end result is 16 extra runs scored from his attempted steals, but 13 outs given away from his attempted steals. Do you still think Pierre's steals are that valuable?

umm... but u never know... cuz maybe if he wouldnt of stolen the base they would of pitch to Pudge , Lowell different..

and even better stat, and this would prove wether you are right or not, would be to look at those 13 times he got caught stealing and see how many of those times he would have scored.

Great post Rodeo, but I too think your arguement is based too much on hypothetical outcome.

 

The only thing I have to add is that your arguement flies in the face of decades of conventional baseball wisdom that says if you have the oppurtunity to advance you do so. There is a reason why being on second is being in "scoring position".

 

Amond myriad other ramnifications, a runner on second opens up the right field line for doubles, causes the OF's to creep in a step or two, many times makes the opposing battery change signs, pre-occupies the middle infield before the pitch, etc...

 

I think the only time stealing second should never be attempted is when D. Lee is at the plate.

Great post Rodeo, but I too think your arguement is based too much on hypothetical outcome.

 

The only thing I have to add is that your arguement flies in the face of decades of conventional baseball wisdom that says if you have the oppurtunity to advance you do so. There is a reason why being on second is being in "scoring position".

 

Amond myriad other ramnifications, a runner on second opens up the right field line for doubles, causes the OF's to creep in a step or two, many times makes the opposing battery change signs, pre-occupies the middle infield before the pitch, etc...

 

I think the only time stealing second should never be attempted is when D. Lee is at the plate.

haha, i disagree, you should steal when derek is batting, that way he wont hit into a double play......... Derek "DOUBLE PLAY" Lee ROCKS!!

An excellent post to be sure, I'm impressed as heck that you had commitment to put it together. Wow!

 

From my perspective theres a couple of potential flaws but they don't reduce the value of your work. The first is the perceived notion that any hit after Pierre gets to second (scoring position) automatically would result in him scoring. The other is that things happen exclusive of Pierre's aggressiveness on the basepaths. To your credit you allude to this in your closing, but I think it needs to be mentioned again.

 

For example it will be a long while before I forget Al Leiter having a complete meltdown at PPS earlier this year after Juan stole second and then taunted Al with bigger and bigger leads off the base. Al was completely out of his game from then on.

 

Pierre on second (or third) is a scoring threat that a Mike Lowell isn't. Mike doesn't score from second on a single, Juan does. Juan has such an effect on pitchers it is palpable.

 

Again, a great post, you deserve kudos for your work. Thanks again :thumbup

and even better stat, and this would prove wether you are right or not, would be to look at those 13 times he got caught stealing and see how many of those times he would have scored.

But even that would be circumstantial. I mean it's hard to say if a batter would make the same swing with a guy on base. Or even for the pitcher. Maybe a pitcher makes a different pitch to Pudge (for example) with Pierre on 2nd base than he would to Pudge with the bases empty (if Pierre gets thrown out).

 

It's hard to show evidence for any of this stuff, because you assume that pitchers and batters would have done the same thing in either situation, and that's a hard case to make. Interesting to look at though.

But even that would be circumstantial. I mean it's hard to say if a batter would make the same swing with a guy on base. Or even for the pitcher. Maybe a pitcher makes a different pitch to Pudge (for example) with Pierre on 2nd base than he would to Pudge with the bases empty (if Pierre gets thrown out).

 

It's hard to show evidence for any of this stuff, because you assume that pitchers and batters would have done the same thing in either situation, and that's a hard case to make. Interesting to look at though.

completely agree. also, once he stills 2nd any possibility of a double play is broken.

Agreed - great post.

 

Speed is typically more prominent in losing teams - without researching it, I'd be willing to say more than 50% of the last 20 SB leaders were on losing teams.

 

You also have to look at the pitches thrown while JP is on base. It's intuitively obvious that he would encorage fastballs (which are easier to handle and make a play on a stealing JP, as well as being perfect fodder for good ML hitters like Luis and Pudge). But I'm not sure if the fastball bias is more prominent if JP is on 2B vs. 1B.

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