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Marlins' future a 'big question'

By Joe Capozzi

 

Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

 

Sunday, October 02, 2005

 

MIAMI GARDENS ? Now what?

 

Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria spent a club-record $65 million this season to build a team capable of winning the World Series. It didn't work out.

With Carlos Delgado, Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera on the payroll, the Marlins will miss the playoffs. They had won 81 games going into Saturday's rain-delayed contest, just two more than they'd lost.

 

With home attendance of 1.7 million, the Marlins are 26th among 30 teams. Just three other last-place teams ? Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Tampa Bay ? have sold fewer tickets.

 

Loria, after losing $20 million in each of the past two seasons, said he is losing money again. And the team is "not close," he conceded, to getting a new stadium.

 

So... now what? Does Loria try again with the same group, or trade high-priced players this winter?

 

"I haven't thought about it,'' he said during the final homestand.

 

Others certainly admit they have. It's the "big question," said Delgado, the highly paid first baseman. "If they keep the core of the ball club we're going to be pretty good again.''

 

Delgado and infielder Mike Lowell received lucrative, long-term contracts in part because Loria expected to eventually have a new stadium and the revenues that go with it. Those plans have stalled. Still, Lowell said, "I would be optimistic if I was a player or a fan.''

 

A pessimist would expect a different scenario. After all, the Marlins ? albeit under different ownership ? have been deconstructed before.

 

"They may plunge this thing,'' said one baseball official familiar with the Marlins. "They may be looking at 'Montreal South' ... taking the payroll down and trading off all their guys and trying to go with their farm system.''

 

To return with the most important players next year would cost at least $80 million, and that isn't going to happen. That's why the team will take a hard look at four players under contract for 2006 for a combined $34.9 million: Delgado ($13.5 million), Lowell ($9 million), second baseman Luis Castillo ($5.67 million) and catcher Paul Lo Duca ($6.72 million).

 

Will the team spend even $65 million next year? "Does this market deserve it?'' one high-ranking Marlins official asked rhetorically.

 

A position-by-position look at what the Marlins might do:

 

First base: Expect Delgado to return. He will receive $9 1/2 million more in 2006 than this season. But his contract was structured that way because the team this year paid the final $9 million installment of the $23 million it paid to pitcher Mike Hampton as part of a complicated 2002 trade.

 

Delgado still might be dealt, especially if a team like the New York Mets made a big push. Delgado, who does not have a no-trade clause, says Loria has told him he'll be a Marlin next year.

 

Second base: Castillo is due to receive a nominal increase from the $5.1 million he made this year. But if he gets 400 plate appearances next year ? he had far more than that during this injury-plagued season ? he triggers a guaranteed $5.75 million option for 2007. The Marlins could bring Castillo back but trade him by July if the team struggles. Or they could package him this winter with Lowell.

 

Shortstop: Alex Gonzalez, who underwent orthoscopic surgery to remove bone chips from his right elbow, will be a free agent. The Marlins already have told his agent they would offer a one-year contract, but nothing more. Gonzalez, 28, is expected to attract multi-year offers from other teams. Florida could pursue a free agent, such as Nomar Garciaparra or Royce Clayton, for a one-year deal and then go with Robert Andino in 2007. Andino, 21, has hit.179 in 15 games through Friday.

 

Third base: Cabrera will start. The team will make a big push this winter to trade Lowell, a former All-Star third baseman who was benched this summer because of a slump that began midway through last season. Lowell is owed $9 million next year and $9 million in 2007. Expect the Marlins to make a frantic effort to package Lowell in a trade with Castillo or center fielder Juan Pierre.

 

Catcher: Lo Duca is under contract for next year, and he'll get a $2.12 million raise from the $4.6 million he made this season. His future depends in part on whether the Marlins can rid themselves of Lowell's salary. Most likely, Lo Duca will return after resting his sore right hamstring this winter. One of the other reserve catchers ? Matt Treanor and Josh Willingham ? probably will be traded.

 

Left field: Jeff Conine, 39, can become a free agent, but he lives in Fort Lauderdale and would love to wind down his career in a Marlins uniform. He will expect to make at least what he did this year ($3 million), and will seek it elsewhere if the Marlins don't offer it.

 

Center field: Pierre, who has been almost as responsible as Lowell for the Marlins' offensive struggles, is eligible for arbitration. After making $3.7 million in 2005, he could get $5.5 million, even after his strikeouts jumped from 35 to 45 and his hits and batting average fell under 200 and.300, respectively, for the first time since 2002. Don't be surprised if the Marlins take a chance with a less expensive free agent or unproven Chris Aguila.

 

Right field: Juan Encarnacion is a free agent and the Marlins won't try to re-sign him. Expect Jeremy Hermida, who has shown promise since being called up Sept. 1, to be given a shot at the job in spring training.

 

Starting rotation: Willis and Josh Beckett are arbitration eligible and will return with each getting about $4 million. For Willis, that's a sizable raise from $378,000; Beckett made $2 million this season.

 

The rest of the rotation is in question. A.J. Burnett, a free agent, will not return. Rookie left-hander Jason Vargas will be penciled in as a No. 4 starter, with rookie right-hander Josh Johnson and left-hander Scott Olsen in line to compete for a spot.

 

Another solution could be a free agent, such as Kevin Millwood (9-11 with a 2.86 ERA for Cleveland this season), but that wouldn't be cheap.

 

Veterans Brian Moehler and Ismael Valdez are free agents, but both struggled in the second half.

 

Relief pitchers: General Manager Admin Beinfest will have to rebuild the bullpen. Todd Jones is a free agent after re-establishing his career with the Marlins. He asked for a two-year deal last winter but got one year for $1.1 million. Expect him to get more money from another team.

 

Florida will try to trade Guillermo Mota, who is in his last year of arbitration eligibility after a disappointing season. He won't get a new contract here.

 

Jim Mecir is retiring. Ron Villone, under contract for $2 million next year, could return, as could Antonio Alfonseca. Rookies Randy Messenger and Chris Resop are penciled in for now.

It's funny- almost every position is unsettled going into the offseason.

JP's going to jump from 3.5 to 5.5 after this season.... ouch.

 

Really everything hinges on whether they're able to deal Lowell, and if so, who gets packaged with him.

 

Gotta rebuild the entire pen, and probably acquire a #3 starter to go along with

Willis,

Beckett,

#3

Vargas

Johnson/Olsen

They trade Luis I would be furious.

next years starting lineup could be considerably different. i don't know, i have a problem getting rid of some of these core guys, just so many memories from 2003 with mikey and jp. maybe its best for the team, maybe not.

They trade Luis I would be furious.

 

 

Me too.

  • Author

They trade Luis I would be furious.

 

 

Me too.

 

If they trade Luis, the team'll be in full on rebuilding mode, so I think everyone would be furious.

I can see Luis and JP traded. And Lowell playing 2nd

 

Hard decisions and Beinfest would have to be very creative.

 

In addition, the division is getting stronger and younger. Not good

 

Sad to say, but I think this was the year. Oh well, there is always hope

They trade Luis I would be furious.

 

 

Me too.

 

If they trade Luis, the team'll be in full on rebuilding mode, so I think everyone would be furious.

After Luis took less money to stay here, Beinfest would be taken to The Grey Havens and banished far beyond to the Undying Lands along with the elves.

  • Author

I can see Luis and JP traded. And Lowell playing 2nd

 

Hard decisions and Beinfest would have to be very creative.

 

In addition, the division is getting stronger and younger. Not good

 

Sad to say, but I think this was the year. Oh well, there is always hope

 

 

I disagree about saying this was the year. Mets'll have a Pedro that's a year older, Ramon Castro as the likely starter, and a question-mark in right (Cameron? Diaz?).

 

Braves'll be the Braves, just leave it at that.

 

Phillies are reportedly looking to move either Abreu or Burrell (who'd like to go to the D'Backs), plus they'll probably lose Wagner and Urbina making Madsen the closer, not the 7th inning swing-man.

 

Nats are the Nats, and while Zimmerman'll probably be the everyday third-baseman, their rotation won't get much better, and Cordero can't possibly be as good next year as he was this year.

 

Barring a huge free-agent signing in the division (doubtful because of all the long-term deals that teams have with players) or a Manny trade (again, it'll be rumored, but I just don't see how it's going to happen if Minaya won't move Milledge and Beltran won't waive his no-trade clause), the division will be open again next year...

I can see Luis and JP traded. And Lowell playing 2nd

 

 

:blink:

 

If you had watched these final games it would be obvious Lowell does not have the range to play 2B. End of story.

Let's put it this way: it's going to be an interesting off-season.

I can't see us trading our gold glove 2nd baseman and probable lead off hitter just to get rid of Lowell.

 

I'd much rather see us:

 

1) Eat part of Lowell's contract

2) Package a promising minor leaguer or two (Willingham/Messenger)

3) Package JP and move Aguila to CF.

I can see Luis and JP traded. And Lowell playing 2nd

 

Hard decisions and Beinfest would have to be very creative.

 

In addition, the division is getting stronger and younger. Not good

 

Sad to say, but I think this was the year. Oh well, there is always hope

 

 

I disagree about saying this was the year. Mets'll have a Pedro that's a year older, Ramon Castro as the likely starter, and a question-mark in right (Cameron? Diaz?).

 

Braves'll be the Braves, just leave it at that.

 

Phillies are reportedly looking to move either Abreu or Burrell (who'd like to go to the D'Backs), plus they'll probably lose Wagner and Urbina making Madsen the closer, not the 7th inning swing-man.

 

Nats are the Nats, and while Zimmerman'll probably be the everyday third-baseman, their rotation won't get much better, and Cordero can't possibly be as good next year as he was this year.

 

Barring a huge free-agent signing in the division (doubtful because of all the long-term deals that teams have with players) or a Manny trade (again, it'll be rumored, but I just don't see how it's going to happen if Minaya won't move Milledge and Beltran won't waive his no-trade clause), the division will be open again next year...

Atlanta:

- They will be better and loaded with young talent. Bobby Cox and Co., pencil in another division

 

Mets:

- Wright and Reyes will be better. Do you expect another off year from Beltran? They have a FO that will make a big trade if the opportunity is there. Pedro had a great season, I don't see a reason for a huge drop. Their strating rotation is not bad, considering their huge offense.

 

Phillies:

Chase Utley, Ryan Howard. remember those two names. Rollins, Abreu and Burrell are still young, solid and may still get better. They won't be in rebuilding mode, I think they will add talent

 

Nats:

Not sure which way they would go. If they get a new owner, they may add payroll.

 

 

 

 

 

I can see Luis and JP traded. And Lowell playing 2nd

 

 

:blink:

 

If you had watched these final games it would be obvious Lowell does not have the range to play 2B. End of story.

I watched all the games, may not have the range of Luis but it is an adequate 2B

I think the marlins have to trade JP. His value is still high and I dont think that he will be back to the JP of old. I know the Yanks are in love with so maybe we could send him there with Luis, but I want Luis and Lowell to stay. I see Lowell bouncing back next year.

  • Author

I can see Luis and JP traded. And Lowell playing 2nd

 

Hard decisions and Beinfest would have to be very creative.

 

In addition, the division is getting stronger and younger. Not good

 

Sad to say, but I think this was the year. Oh well, there is always hope

 

 

I disagree about saying this was the year. Mets'll have a Pedro that's a year older, Ramon Castro as the likely starter, and a question-mark in right (Cameron? Diaz?).

 

Braves'll be the Braves, just leave it at that.

 

Phillies are reportedly looking to move either Abreu or Burrell (who'd like to go to the D'Backs), plus they'll probably lose Wagner and Urbina making Madsen the closer, not the 7th inning swing-man.

 

Nats are the Nats, and while Zimmerman'll probably be the everyday third-baseman, their rotation won't get much better, and Cordero can't possibly be as good next year as he was this year.

 

Barring a huge free-agent signing in the division (doubtful because of all the long-term deals that teams have with players) or a Manny trade (again, it'll be rumored, but I just don't see how it's going to happen if Minaya won't move Milledge and Beltran won't waive his no-trade clause), the division will be open again next year...

Atlanta:

- They will be better and loaded with young talent. Bobby Cox and Co., pencil in another division

 

Mets:

- Wright and Reyes will be better. Do you expect another off year from Beltran? They have a FO that will make a big trade if the opportunity is there. Pedro had a great season, I don't see a reason for a huge drop. Their strating rotation is not bad, considering their huge offense.

 

Phillies:

Chase Utley, Ryan Howard. remember those two names. Rollins, Abreu and Burrell are still young, solid and may still get better. They won't be in rebuilding mode, I think they will add talent

 

Nats:

Not sure which way they would go. If they get a new owner, they may add payroll.

 

Fine, so then

 

Florida:

-They will have the premier young left-handed bat in the division, and arguably the two most selective left-handed hitters on any team in baseball.

-Do you expect another off year from Juan Pierre?

-They have an owner that isn't afraid to add pay-roll if the team is in it, and their minor league system is filled with young arms that just don't have a future with the team because of the depth of quality, young pitching already at the big league level.

-Delgado's 2006 could be markedly better than his 2005 given his adaptation to the National League.

 

And for the record, no I don't see any reason to expect better numbers out of Beltran, look at his 2004 #'s in a hitters' ball-park and tell me that it wasn't pretty obvious that Beltran isn't the player that the Mets thought they were getting.

 

If anything, the Mets'll add Wagner and the Mets and Phillies simply flip-flop their positions in the division...Utley's going to be amazing as a starter, but the Phillies have said that they think that Thome and Howard can co-exist, and it seems that they're going to give Howard a shot in left-field, hence the desire to move Burrell or Abreu...

What about something like this.. trade lowell and jp to arizona, it fills up two of their needs. In return we get Javier Vasquez to fill our own. He has the right to force a trade and is supposedly demaning it to the east coast (in his contract). Just a few thoughts perhaps to consider.

  • Author

What about something like this.. trade lowell and jp to arizona, it fills up two of their needs. In return we get Javier Vasquez to fill our own. He has the right to force a trade and is supposedly demaning it to the east coast (in his contract). Just a few thoughts perhaps to consider.

 

 

Arizona has Troy Glaus, who was arguably the best National League third-baseman for most of this season...and they want Lowell why exactly?

 

Plus, Vazquez wouldn't "reportedly" demand a trade, as a player traded while under a long-term contract, he has the right to demand a trade, and if that trade doesn't occur, he can opt for free agency, it doesn't look like Vazquez is going anywhere, nor does it look like he'd be worth parting with Pierre.

I can see Luis and JP traded. And Lowell playing 2nd

 

Hard decisions and Beinfest would have to be very creative.

 

In addition, the division is getting stronger and younger. Not good

 

Sad to say, but I think this was the year. Oh well, there is always hope

 

 

I disagree about saying this was the year. Mets'll have a Pedro that's a year older, Ramon Castro as the likely starter, and a question-mark in right (Cameron? Diaz?).

 

Braves'll be the Braves, just leave it at that.

 

Phillies are reportedly looking to move either Abreu or Burrell (who'd like to go to the D'Backs), plus they'll probably lose Wagner and Urbina making Madsen the closer, not the 7th inning swing-man.

 

Nats are the Nats, and while Zimmerman'll probably be the everyday third-baseman, their rotation won't get much better, and Cordero can't possibly be as good next year as he was this year.

 

Barring a huge free-agent signing in the division (doubtful because of all the long-term deals that teams have with players) or a Manny trade (again, it'll be rumored, but I just don't see how it's going to happen if Minaya won't move Milledge and Beltran won't waive his no-trade clause), the division will be open again next year...

Atlanta:

- They will be better and loaded with young talent. Bobby Cox and Co., pencil in another division

 

Mets:

- Wright and Reyes will be better. Do you expect another off year from Beltran? They have a FO that will make a big trade if the opportunity is there. Pedro had a great season, I don't see a reason for a huge drop. Their strating rotation is not bad, considering their huge offense.

 

Phillies:

Chase Utley, Ryan Howard. remember those two names. Rollins, Abreu and Burrell are still young, solid and may still get better. They won't be in rebuilding mode, I think they will add talent

 

Nats:

Not sure which way they would go. If they get a new owner, they may add payroll.

 

Fine, so then

 

Florida:

-They will have the premier young left-handed bat in the division, and arguably the two most selective left-handed hitters on any team in baseball.

-Do you expect another off year from Juan Pierre?

-They have an owner that isn't afraid to add pay-roll if the team is in it, and their minor league system is filled with young arms that just don't have a future with the team because of the depth of quality, young pitching already at the big league level.

-Delgado's 2006 could be markedly better than his 2005 given his adaptation to the National League.

 

And for the record, no I don't see any reason to expect better numbers out of Beltran, look at his 2004 #'s in a hitters' ball-park and tell me that it wasn't pretty obvious that Beltran isn't the player that the Mets thought they were getting.

 

If anything, the Mets'll add Wagner and the Mets and Phillies simply flip-flop their positions in the division...Utley's going to be amazing as a starter, but the Phillies have said that they think that Thome and Howard can co-exist, and it seems that they're going to give Howard a shot in left-field, hence the desire to move Burrell or Abreu...

On Florida, let's see what they want to do first. Rebuilding, keeping pace or adding

  • Author

On Florida, let's see what they want to do first. Rebuilding, keeping pace or adding

 

 

I don't think we'll rebuild simply because too many of our pieces are at an all time low as far as getting equal value back goes, and you don't rebuild when you don't get good prospects back.

 

I don't expect us to have our hand in many free-agent negotiations, but I don't think that we'd necessarily be a bad team if we simply return the majority of the team and pretty much play for a do over.

I know Lowell couldn't be moved during trade deadline, but how mnay teams did we talk trade with? There might be a team that plays in a hitter's park, looking for a veteran corner-man and might consider bringing Mike in for change of scenery..

To be honest I'd like to see Loria give the 2005 team another shot at it with a different manager and coaching staff.

 

And by that I mean keeping the core players intact with a few changes.

 

I have this gut feeling both Lowell and Pierre will rebound under another hitting coach.

 

The bullpen needs to be revamped and we need to look for another closer. But Beinfest seems quite good at finding a guy who can step up.

 

Here's what I'd like to see them do.

 

C - LoDuca

1B - Delgado

2B - Castillo

3B - Lowell

SS - Gonzalez (2 year deal)

LF - Cabrera

CF - Pierre

RF - Hermida

 

4th OF - Aguila

Utility IF - Easley

Utility IF/OF - Conine

Backup Catcher - Treanor

5th OF 3rd Catcher - Willingham

 

SP - Beckett

SP - Willis

SP - #3 (Millwood?)

SP - Vargas

SP - Johnson/Olsen

 

LR - Johnson/Olsen

LS - Villone (or trade him)

SU - Resop/Messenger

SU - Alfonseca

SU - Mota

SU - Jones (doubtful he won't get a better offer)

Closer - ??? (Urbina)

  • Author

PBMarlin,

 

I agree with you that we should just take a mulligan on the season, and for the most part I think that's what's going to happen, but here are a few things I'd do differently than your plan:

 

SS-1 year deal to Nomar (if he gets hurt, Andino's here), maybe he can provide some offense that we need in the lineup. He's had a more productive September than Cabrera going .308 with 5 homers and 19 RBI (Cabrera does have 22 RBI).

 

Bye Bye Easley, give the utility job to Wilson, let Andino get a full year of AAA in.

 

Whoever doesn't win the job in spring between Johnson/Olsen, give them another year in the minors, or just let Vargas, Olsen, Johnson have the final three spots and don't even bother with a free-agent starter. For me, this is the million dollar question of our off-season, what do we do with the rotation, and are all three kids ready?

 

I don't want Jones back, I'd rather make a smarter investment with the money (be it on the bench, for another closer, or simply to keep Castillo or Pierre), and the free agent closer/set-up market is surprisingly deep. Bring back Mota, Villone and Alfonseca, and then just remake the rest...oh, and see if Mecir is absolutely dead-set on retiring, because he'd be one of the most cost effective relievers we could get.

^^^ and then they'd have a 100 million dollar payroll

  • Author

^^^ and then they'd have a 100 million dollar payroll

 

 

How do you figure?

 

Losing Burnett, Jones, Mecir, Gonzalez, Encarnacion and Easley shaves about 14 million off the payroll (3.5 for AJ, 3 for Gonzalez, 4.5 for Juan, 1 million each for Jones, Easley and Mecir) and you replace Encarnacion and Easley with guys who will be making the minimum (around 350K), and that's still 13 million to play with. give $5 mil to Nomar, $3 mil to some reliever, and keep the rest to allow for the increased salary to most guys.

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