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How much turnover will the Florida Marlins have?


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Rumors abound that Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu, Jeremy Hermida, Cody Ross, Ricky Nolasco and Reynel Pinto could be moving to new towns before spring training. I also have a feeling that Alfredo Amezaga and possibly Matt Lindstrom have played there last games for the Marlins too. Could the Marlins have 8-9 new guys on the roster next April. And the bigger question is: Is this fair to keep doing to Marlins fans year after year?

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Rumors abound that Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu, Jeremy Hermida, Cody Ross, Ricky Nolasco and Reynel Pinto could be moving to new towns before spring training. I also have a feeling that Alfredo Amezaga and possibly Matt Lindstrom have played there last games for the Marlins too. Could the Marlins have 8-9 new guys on the roster next April. And the bigger question is: Is this fair to keep doing to Marlins fans year after year?

 

 

There will be some changes in our roster however Cody, Nolasco and Cantu are almost certain to be brought back. Lindstrom is also a strong possibility to return as well because he will not cost the Marlins very much.

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Rumors abound that Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu, Jeremy Hermida, Cody Ross, Ricky Nolasco and Reynel Pinto could be moving to new towns before spring training. I also have a feeling that Alfredo Amezaga and possibly Matt Lindstrom have played there last games for the Marlins too. Could the Marlins have 8-9 new guys on the roster next April. And the bigger question is: Is this fair to keep doing to Marlins fans year after year?

 

 

I'd add Nunez. He's going to make close to $2 million, and I cannot see the Marlins paying that to him. I'd also say Nolasco is a lock to stay.

 

I have this right now.

 

C John Baker $415,000

1B Gaby Sanchez $405,000

2B Chris Coghlan $410,000

3B Jorge Cantu $6,000,000

SS Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000

LF Brett Carroll $405,000

CF Cameron Maybin $405,000

RF Cody Ross $4,200,000

B Emilio Bonifacio $415,000

B Wes Helms $950,000

B Ronny Paulino $900,000

B Jai/Raynor $405,000

B Veteran *lefty* 1B/LF $405,000

 

SP Josh Johnson $5,500,000

SP Ricky Nolasco $4,250,000

SP Andrew Miller $2,000,000

SP Chris Volstad $415,000

SP Anibal Sanchez $1,200,000

RP Matt Lindstrom $1,650,000

RP Reynel Pinto $850,000

RP Dan Meyer $415,000

RP Rick Vanden Hurk $415,000

RP Brian Sanches $415,000

RP Burke Badenhop $415,000

RP Tim Wood $405,000

 

$40,245,000. Assuming I am over-estimating a few hundred thousand on the Cantu, or Johnson, or Nolasco, or Ross arbitrations, this is basically a $40 million team with people we already have besides a Ross Gload replacement.

 

That's a base lineup of this, which is very solid. And the staff could be great with even a moderate improvement with age.

 

R Maybin CF

L Coghlan 2B/LF

R Hanley SS

R Cantu 3B

L Baker C

R Ross RF

R G. Sanchez 1B / L Veteran 1B/LF

R Carroll LF / S Bonifacio 2B

 

NOTICE, Sean West isn't here which brings up the possibility of cutting ties with Anibal or Miller who each make 3-5 times his salary. Plus each would bring back a good additional piece as a quality young arm that projects. This is trading: Uggla, Nunez, Hermida, and Amezaga, and getting Type B compensation for N. Johnson. That's going to add at least 3-4 good prospects, and 3-4 ok prospects, to our system to grow with Stanton, Morrison, Dominguez, Petersen, Cousins, Smolinski, and Skipworth, and, the even younger arms with James, Hand, Kaminska, Sanabia, Berglund, Cishek,

 

--

 

To answer the bigger question, Marlins fans should be thrilled with what management is doing. 87 wins with simply horrible performances from Bonifacio, some of the SP, Hermida, etc. There is tons of room for growth here. The only player who probably overachieved last year, was Coghlan. We're getting better as is, let alone what is lurking in AA right now.

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To answer the bigger question, Marlins fans should be thrilled with what management is doing. 87 wins with simply horrible performances from Bonifacio, some of the SP, Hermida, etc. There is tons of room for growth here. The only player who probably overachieved last year, was Coghlan. We're getting better as is, let alone what is lurking in AA right now.

 

 

I think, with what turnover there will be, this is the main thing to remember as fans.

 

Yes, certain positions will be slightly worse.

 

Considering that the same players will be there at C and SS, and neither over-performed, we can say push production there.

 

Although Coghlan probably isn't this good as Lou noted, he and his back up can probably match the .806 OPS 2b production from last year. At worst, it should be a minor loss.

 

With how Maybin preformed in AAA and his call up, we likely don't look at a loss in CF production (.767 OPS) with him and whoever is back up CF. And if we do, it shouldn't be a major loss. Something people will likely forget is he still finished the year with a .727 OPS with a lot of room to grow.

 

If we put Cody in LF, and he puts up his typical 800 OPS, yeah we'll be looking at a loss in production there (.819 OPS). But again, far far from major loss.

 

We probably lose at 1b (.817 OPS) considering the candidates at the moment, but yet again something far from major, as well as break out potential from the candidates.

 

That leaves us RF, where our .723 OPS ranked 27th in the majors. I mean, yeah we don't know who will play there yet. But at worst it will be easy to find someone who can match hermida's production.

 

And then the infamous third base, where we'd finish with a .629 OPS and no player that played the position for us last season broke a .700 OPS, seriously. Yes we have no idea who will be there next year yet, but chances are he can at least put up a .700 OPS.

 

And then there's the minor things as well. We're getting rid of two horrible base runners in NJ and Hermida (Not that the loss of NJ won't be hard, but fact remains he's absolutely terrible on the bases. And it's just another reason to hate on Hermida), and getting a should-be stud runner in Maybin. The difference in Maybin and Hermida should be at least 10 runs, going by BP's baserunning metric. Our defense should improve with shifting/players gone (though we also said that coming into this year).

 

I think this off-season will definitely resemble last offseason: lots of people saying our offense was doomed because of Jake/Hammer being gone, Uggla not repeating, ect ect. while completely ignoring how many black holes we had and how much room to grow a lot of players we are fielding have (as well as, at least in Jakes case, players not being as good as they were perceived to be). And yet, with all that doom and gloom, we'd score more runs in 2009 than 2008 (772 v.s. 770 [though we also only played 161 games in '08]), and barely had a drop in OPS in '09 (.756 v.s. .759).

 

It all comes down to pitching, both in the rotation and the bullpen.

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I'd like to see West in the starting rotation to begin the season. He was improving with each start he made, it would be a shame to send him down after he seemed to finally get the hang of things.

 

 

 

My rotation- JJ, Nolasco, Volstad, West, Sanchez

 

I'd like to see Miller emerge so we could have at least 2 lefties in the rotation, but Miller seems like he cannot figure out his control issues.

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Lou do you really feel they will move CC to 2B instead of putting Bonifacio at 2nd and leaving CC in left? Hmmm. I guess they would do this so they could have another amezega type...but then again it doesnt seem the marlins are going to back down from trying to start bonifacio and 2nd seems the only real spot for him.

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Lou do you really feel they will move CC to 2B instead of putting Bonifacio at 2nd and leaving CC in left? Hmmm. I guess they would do this so they could have another amezega type...but then again it doesnt seem the marlins are going to back down from trying to start bonifacio and 2nd seems the only real spot for him.

 

The way I see things right now without offseason additions and suspected offseason defections, I see Coghlan/Bonifacio splitting 2B, and Coghlan/Carroll/Veteran splitting LF. It's basically a EB/Carroll platoon at 2B/LF, and Coghlan plays wherever the other isn't playing. I think that's a way to work Coghlan into 2B at the major league level, and give the organization an opportunity to evaluate Bonifacio at 2B. Also leaving the door open for Carroll, Petersen, or maybe even Morrison or Stanton, to take over LF if they excel.

 

Coghlan is going to have to move to 2B with the minor leaguers we have coming up (Maybin, Stanton, Petersen, Cousins, and perhaps Morrison). We're stunting his longterm worth to this team by not moving him to 2B. Unless Uggla stays, Coghlan needs to get at least 100 starts at 2B.

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I think this off-season will definitely resemble last offseason: lots of people saying our offense was doomed because of Jake/Hammer being gone, Uggla not repeating, ect ect. while completely ignoring how many black holes we had and how much room to grow a lot of players we are fielding have (as well as, at least in Jakes case, players not being as good as they were perceived to be). And yet, with all that doom and gloom, we'd score more runs in 2009 than 2008 (772 v.s. 770 [though we also only played 161 games in '08]), and barely had a drop in OPS in '09 (.756 v.s. .759).

 

It all comes down to pitching, both in the rotation and the bullpen.

 

100% on this.

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This team needs to decide if they want to contend before 2012. If they do, moving Uggla is an error. The one completely expendable arbitration eligible position player is Cantu. We have a potentially MLB ready 1B in the minors, and the ability to retain or obtain a solid 1b player if we want to give him more time. This team will not succeed with Bonifacio starting.

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Of course there will be turnover, every team has roster changes. With the Marlins I think it is realistic that Hermida, Amezaga,Pinto and Uggla are gone. Cantu and Ross appear safe if the others don't return. Also Lindstrom will more than likely be back IMO. Most Marlins fans understand that this is part of the business, that hopefully will change in 2012.

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Rumors abound that Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu, Jeremy Hermida, Cody Ross, Ricky Nolasco and Reynel Pinto could be moving to new towns before spring training. I also have a feeling that Alfredo Amezaga and possibly Matt Lindstrom have played there last games for the Marlins too. Could the Marlins have 8-9 new guys on the roster next April. And the bigger question is: Is this fair to keep doing to Marlins fans year after year?

 

All teams have turnover. They must do it in order to remain financially solvent and competitive on the field.

 

I don't think losses of names like Pinto, Lindstrom, Hermida, and Amezaga would be that devastating.

 

Ross Gload could possibly depart and will be missed off of the bench but the dollar amount for his 2010 option is laughably high.

 

I think Cantu and Nolasco will most likely stay with the team.

 

Uggla will be the only major loss in the offseason but the Marlins already have a replacement in Coghlan. Coghlan needs to be moved to the infield as soon as possible and his defensive skills are better suited for second base at this stage in his career.

 

I suppose the loss of Kiko Calero will also sting a little. The Marlins have done an adequate job of finding cheap bullpen arms, so I imagine that the loss of Calero will redeemed in part through whatever talent the Marlins get back for Uggla, Hermida, et al.

 

The main question marks as far as offense is concerned will be whether or not Gaby Sanchez and Brett Carroll can be everyday players. I really wish the Marlins had given him more starts to Sanchez in 2009 to test his capabilities. I think it was a waste to be giving Gload and Helms so many starts at 1B/3B when Johnson and Cantu missed games.

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Lou do you really feel they will move CC to 2B instead of putting Bonifacio at 2nd and leaving CC in left? Hmmm. I guess they would do this so they could have another amezega type...but then again it doesnt seem the marlins are going to back down from trying to start bonifacio and 2nd seems the only real spot for him.

 

The way I see things right now without offseason additions and suspected offseason defections, I see Coghlan/Bonifacio splitting 2B, and Coghlan/Carroll/Veteran splitting LF. It's basically a EB/Carroll platoon at 2B/LF, and Coghlan plays wherever the other isn't playing. I think that's a way to work Coghlan into 2B at the major league level, and give the organization an opportunity to evaluate Bonifacio at 2B. Also leaving the door open for Carroll, Petersen, or maybe even Morrison or Stanton, to take over LF if they excel.

 

Coghlan is going to have to move to 2B with the minor leaguers we have coming up (Maybin, Stanton, Petersen, Cousins, and perhaps Morrison). We're stunting his longterm worth to this team by not moving him to 2B. Unless Uggla stays, Coghlan needs to get at least 100 starts at 2B.

 

I completely agree about Coghlan, but sad to say I am not so sure that the FO is going to spot the obvious. I'm very critical of playing an infield bat in LF, and while Coghlan really stepped up and produced as well as you could expect a major leaguer to hit at any position, I don't think he hits .320 next year, and regardless of that, the difference between a Bonifacio in the lineup and a Morrison/Stanton or even Carroll in the lineup is so tremendous that this is a move that must be made if the Fo has any sense (do they?).

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Rumors abound that Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu, Jeremy Hermida, Cody Ross, Ricky Nolasco and Reynel Pinto could be moving to new towns before spring training. I also have a feeling that Alfredo Amezaga and possibly Matt Lindstrom have played there last games for the Marlins too. Could the Marlins have 8-9 new guys on the roster next April. And the bigger question is: Is this fair to keep doing to Marlins fans year after year?

 

 

 

The main question marks as far as offense is concerned will be whether or not Gaby Sanchez and Brett Carroll can be everyday players. I really wish the Marlins had given him more starts to Sanchez in 2009 to test his capabilities. I think it was a waste to be giving Gload and Helms so many starts at 1B/3B when Johnson and Cantu missed games.

 

There were plenty good reasons for that. Gaby's glove and bat were not what the team thought they had in him before ST started. By a long shot. I really don't think he will be with the team come Spring, or at the most, by the end of ST. I think he gets included in some type of package deal. The best his fans here can hope for is that he remains, but plays almost exclusively at the AAA level. The team will most likely try to bring in a 1B or 3B that can get on base at a good clip via trade or FA. Cantu will occupy the other base. With season ticket sales going pretty well for 2010 (and 2011 right now) I stick by my thinking that payroll will be $45-50 mil.

 

Boni was rumored to be going to Winter League play to work on a couple things. Squaring up to bunt and pitch selection at the top of the list. His K rate wasn't all that bad (better than team average) as the months went on, but it needs improvement. I think if he does improve in those things he is our 2B next season and Chris stays in LF. Defensively that is the position Boni will excell at.

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