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mystikol87
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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/florida-standing-pat/

 

One number on ESPN’s Free Agent Tracker stands out above the rest. The Florida Marlins are the only team without any committed money to free agents on major league contracts this winter. They have added Seth McClung and Jose Veras on minor league contracts, but that’s the extent of their activity this offseason.

 

After an 87-75 year from a very young team, there was certainly room for optimism in the Marlins camp. Even with an 81-81 Pythagorean record and an 83-79 third order record, the Marlins appeared to be in position, with a few upgrades, to make a run at the postseason. Now, in February, the Marlins haven’t added a single player of note, and key bullpen piece Kiko Calero is a free agent and first baseman Nick Johnson has moved on to the Yankees.

 

Where does that leave the Marlins? That depends on which projection system you ask. PECOTA thinks the Marlins have a decent team, and at 82-80, that would leave them with a realistic, albeit small, chance at the postseason. CHONE and CAIRO, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic. CHONE projects Florida for either 76 or 78 wins depending on which method you prefer, and CAIRO projects them for 79 wins and a measley 2.5 percent chance at reaching the playoffs.

 

It is not entirely surprising that the Marlins haven’t made any big moves. With the increases in player salary due to arbitration, in particular Josh Johnson and Dan Uggla, the Marlins’ salary stands at 34.75 million before minimum salary players, according to Cot’s Contracts. The team hasn’t eclipsed a 40 million dollar salary since 2005.

 

The Marlins are anywhere from 3 to 6 wins away from seriously competing for a playoff spot this summer. In the face of the MLB and players union demanding the team spend more money towards a possible playoff run, Jeffrey Loria has somehow managed to completely ignore the free agent market. Perhaps the Marlins simply couldn’t find the correct player to meet both their financial and competitive needs this winter. Regardless of why, the Marlins’ decision-making process will likely result in one fewer team in the NL East race come this summer.

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Those stupid projection systems...

 

 

Last year, Baseball Prospectus (using one of these craps) had us at last place in the division. In fact, they have us at last place this year as well. There are just so many variables to take into account that a projection system can't that it's not even worth looking into.

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Those stupid projection systems...

 

 

Last year, Baseball Prospectus (using one of these craps) had us at last place in the division. In fact, they have us at last place this year as well. There are just so many variables to take into account that a projection system can't that it's not even worth looking into.

 

 

They have us at third place.

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What are the CHONE numbers for Nolasco, Volstad, Miller, West, et al?

 

If those guys are all lights out the Marlins will be contenders, but I think a third place prediction is very reasonable.

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Its always an interesting read the info in these articles and the lengths the authors go to to make stats point out one thing or the other is fascinating. I would/could never want to put that much effort into decoding stats. The one thing that can't be factored in is intangibles! You never know who's going to have a breakout year or who all of a sudden sucks. I try not to get to upset with most of these articles, or two elated when they predict the Marlins to do really well, I just take them all with a grain of salt.

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Its always an interesting read the info in these articles and the lengths the authors go to to make stats point out one thing or the other is fascinating. I would/could never want to put that much effort into decoding stats. The one thing that can't be factored in is intangibles! You never know who's going to have a breakout year or who all of a sudden sucks. I try not to get to upset with most of these articles, or two elated when they predict the Marlins to do really well, I just take them all with a grain of salt.

 

 

They're not meant to be 100% accurate. It's about playing the odds. For a pedestrian, they're mostly meant for gambling.

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And I'm pretty sure Kiko is looking for a 2 year deal, and besdies, I believe the MArlins have moved on; at Fanfest, I read Beinfest said something to the effect that we've had only minimal discussions with Kiko, besdies we have young guys to fill his place. Even with his breakout year in 09, no way anyone gives him more than a 1 year with his injury history coming off that many innings. I suspect as we get closer to ST and he continues to have no job, he'll get desperate and then maybe we'll have a shot.

 

I never put any stock in these predictors because they always put the Phillies or Mets at 1/2 followed by the Braves 3 (sometimes we make it to 3). Ever since 2006, we're predicted to finnish with a losing or barely 500 record, yet every year we tend to stay in playoff contention. Despite what the article says, last year's team wasn't a "young team;" certainly not over the hill, but their core players are pretty much in the dawn of their prime years.

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Because they're pretty sure his arm will fall off and sooner rather than later.

 

 

yeah i get the concern but a minor league deal can't hurt.

 

I hope we get lucky and nobody goes after him and we are able to sign him to that minor league deal and then he has a repeat performance of last year.

 

 

Got a non-answer when this question was brought up at FanFest. "Keeping track of him", "Always welcome back". etc........

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