I think I'd rather give Nolasco/Anibal 3+ year deals than Uggla, at this point.

 

This organization needs pitching.

 

For all the talk about Nolasco's struggles, there's a reason why he has 12 wins. He's not a bad pitcher; he has a huge problem with the HR's allowed #, and I'm not sure if that's fixable (maybe it is). At any rate, Nolasco is still averaging 6 innings per start, and 14 of his 23 starts have been quality starts. It's probably going to be more difficult to replace Nolasco than to replace Uggla. Look at the starting pitching depth of the organization; we're not the Rays. We should be looking to add to the starting pitching, not the other way around.

 

Regarding Anibal, I never thought I'd say this (I actually wanted him gone last year because I never thought he'd be back), but he seems to be back to form now. He's had a good year. I'd give Ricky the contract first, simply because Anibal still has a torn labrum in his past, but point is, we need the starting pitching.

 

After the 3 of JJ, Nolasco, and Anibal which you could live with...I have little confidence in Volstad, more confidence in West but West is unproven, no confidence in Miller, and I'm not sure if Sanabia is a guy to count on yet for the future. He's not a power arm, and he still needs to develop a 3rd pitch, if he wants to be a starter. Guys like James, Hand, etc. are still a ways away.

 

I'd like to keep Uggla, but if we have to trade him to get more arms in return and keep Nolasco/Anibal, I'd trade him. Just put Coghlan at 2B, and Dominguez at 3B for the future lineup, and live with that. If Uggla is signed long-term, someone (Coghlan, Gaby, Morrison) has to be the odd man out for a trade for quality pitching. I really hope the organization plans to keep Dominguez. His defense at 3B sounds like a change/great thing, and he's going to be a power bat, as well. After Hanley, JJ, and Stanton, Dominguez should be the next guy in the organization who pretty much labels as an "untouchable," I'd think.

 

 

 

What about Morrison?

 

 

 

 

Dominguez has much more upside.

 

Based on what? Dominguez hasn't really shown anything at all in the minors. At least Morrison has shown he can rake minor league pitching.

 

 

41 extra base hits as a 20 year old in AA; he's shown some power.

 

Basically, a power-hitting 3B with an awesome glove >>> a 1B/OF with average power and not as great of a glove.

 

Look at the comparisons being drawn, here. Morrison, at best, is being compared to Nick Johnson. Dominguez, at best, is being compared to Ryan Zimmerman. Which one of those two guys is a franchise player for their team? The answer is Zimmerman.

 

My comments are being taken out of proportion. I was simply saying that Dominguez should be more of an untouchable because if he fulfills his potential (which, considering he's only 20, and at AA, it's what I'm expecting from him), he's going to be extremely difficult to replace. Logan Morrison, on the other hand, might turn out to be a slightly better version of Gaby's #'s this year. That's easier to replace. Take both offense and defense, into account.

Is Dominguez compared to any major leaguer today?

 

 

 

 

In the draft the comparison's to Ryan Zimmerman were used a lot. Ryan Zimmerman is still discussed as what the front office hopes Dominguez can be if he gets his hitting to the point it was in his last 2 months at A+ ball. Some think the worst he'll be is Pedro Feliz, although I'm more of the mindset that Feliz should be what should be expected to be of Dominguez's career.

 

Also this "power threat" crap is just that. Dominguez has never hit 20 home runs in a single minor league season and is currently at 12 in AA. He's not below average power wise, but he's not a plus power guy.

 

 

Not everyone is Mike Stanton.

Mystik basically covered the power aspect. Logan likely has more "raw" power, but he puts WAY too many balls on the ground for actual in-game power.

 

Logan's bat is, far and away, the better of the two in terms of upside. Dominguez has only showed the ability to hit for power. His BB/K is not bad but isn't good and he has yet to prove he can hit for average for balls in play in the upper minors (Although it's also to quick to assume he'll be below average in that area).

 

Logan has shown the potential to finish with more walks than strike outs, win a batting title, and hit ~25 HRs at the major league level. More than likely, these won't happen (Groundballs, with his speed, will likely kill his BABIP. His lack of flyballs means a lack of HRs), but those are his upside. Only one of those can be said for Dominguez.

 

But do not understate Dominguez power because of his unimpressive HR totals. He is very very young, and very very very very young for his league. Yet he is cranking out XBH at a very good rate. Those 2b will more than likely turn into HRs as his body fills out. What also makes his 2B numbers even more impressive is the fact that his BABIP is so low (Simplified explanation: high BABIP = more balls that drop in the gap, low BABIP = less balls that drop).

 

The difference between their projected defense and positional value is worth roughly .100 OPS points. So if Dominguez OPS .750, Logan has to OPS .850 to match his production. Though right now his expect level of performance in a couple of years is probably in the low 700's.

 

The best thing for Matty would likely to repeat AA next year, then see AAA as a 22 year old, then be a call up at 23. Give him time for his body to develop to give him more power, give him more experience to change things in his avg and BB/K. This likely will not happen, and I expect him to be in AAA next season and a possible call up in 2012.

 

Fact remains though that this has been a poor season for Matty and his value has dropped (Well really, it was a decent season up until July. Since July 1st, he's been absolutely dreadful). Pre-season I had Matty > Logan but now I would say Logan > Matty, although both are roughly "B" prospects.

I have always pictured Dominguez as a right handed Eric Chavez. Excellent defense, will probably be a good hitter but streaky. Hopefully healthy.

 

I think the James Loney comparison Lou throws out there for Morrison is more apt than Nick Johnson.

Is Dominguez compared to any major leaguer today?

 

 

 

 

In the draft the comparison's to Ryan Zimmerman were used a lot. Ryan Zimmerman is still discussed as what the front office hopes Dominguez can be if he gets his hitting to the point it was in his last 2 months at A+ ball. Some think the worst he'll be is Pedro Feliz, although I'm more of the mindset that Feliz should be what should be expected to be of Dominguez's career.

 

Also this "power threat" crap is just that. Dominguez has never hit 20 home runs in a single minor league season and is currently at 12 in AA. He's not below average power wise, but he's not a plus power guy.

 

 

Not everyone is Mike Stanton.

 

I just think he's a 15-20 home runs per season guy in the future. 25-30 for me constitutes as a "power threat".

 

I'm not denying that Dominguez is extremely young and can without a doubt put on muscle and soon reach his power potential, I'm just not sure if he's ever going to be a power threat based on what he's shown.

 

And when I say "what he's shown", I'm actually pretty much ignoring this season as I think we all understand he is still extremely young for AA and was a bit rushed to begin with.

 

I think the Eric Chavez comparison is fair in what he could be if he reaches some of his potential, but hard to predict whether a AA guy is going to be a 6 time gold glover before he ever reaches the majors. What we do know is his defense will be his strength.

I also think Morrison's decrease in power this year in the minors (and iirc a good portion of his 09 season) was because he was playing through a nagging wrist injury.

 

Didn't he also have a hamstring injury at some point?

His defense was considered gold glove caliber in high school(relative to age, of course). No lie either.

 

Dominguez is having an amazing August so far, 1.143 OPS(2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR). Small sample size, yes, but its still super cool.

 

Instead of arguing against either of them, why cant we just agree that they are both damn good prospects and if they can contribute as expected of them it will be an epic win for the Fish going forward.

Logan has not experienced a drop in power. His park/league adjusted power numbers are roughly the same his entire minor league career.

 

I just think he's a 15-20 home runs per season guy in the future. 25-30 for me constitutes as a "power threat".

 

I think HRs is a bad way to judge power because that's only one XBH, ISO is a lot better. Though they do normally end up correlating well.

 

.150 ISO = average

.200 ISO = power hitter (Which is normally 25+ HRs)

 

Right now, based off the minor leagues, Logan's expectation is likely around .145-.155 whereas Matty is .165-.175

I use the numbers available to me, and I don't have access to advanced stats (nor do I really know what most of them mean).

Well if this is true you gotta know that AC company that his name is... just did is breathing a sigh of relief. When the commercial first came out and the trade rumors were going rampet I thought that was a big waste of money haha.

His defense was considered gold glove caliber in high school(relative to age, of course). No lie either.

 

Dominguez is having an amazing August so far, 1.143 OPS(2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR). Small sample size, yes, but its still super cool.

 

Instead of arguing against either of them, why cant we just agree that they are both damn good prospects and if they can contribute as expected of them it will be an epic win for the Fish going forward.

 

 

^ ^ ^

 

 

Trying to prove he actually IS a Marlins fan.

I wouldn't call ISO an "advanced" statistic, all it is is SLG-AVG (So, in other words, it's slg without singles), available from everywhere, and it's been around for a long, long time.

His defense was considered gold glove caliber in high school(relative to age, of course). No lie either.

 

Dominguez is having an amazing August so far, 1.143 OPS(2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR). Small sample size, yes, but its still super cool.

 

Instead of arguing against either of them, why cant we just agree that they are both damn good prospects and if they can contribute as expected of them it will be an epic win for the Fish going forward.

 

 

^ ^ ^

l l l

 

Trying to prove he actually IS a Marlins fan.

 

He's not really that negative..........unless if he's talking about Gaby Sanchez...

Mike Stanton's current .ISO is .239. :lol

I use the numbers available to me, and I don't have access to advanced stats (nor do I really know what most of them mean).

 

 

ISO is kinda like OPS in that it's a quick and decent stat to gauge a guy's power.

 

If you google "Matt Dominguez stats", you get a baseballreference hit toward the top. If you go here, you get a nice breakdown of his numbers, and from there you can check out the league stats (this is where I got my league averages I mentioned earlier).

 

ISO is simply SLG - BA, so that you get an idea how much of his SLG comes from extra-base hits/power.

His defense was considered gold glove caliber in high school(relative to age, of course). No lie either.

 

Dominguez is having an amazing August so far, 1.143 OPS(2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR). Small sample size, yes, but its still super cool.

 

Instead of arguing against either of them, why cant we just agree that they are both damn good prospects and if they can contribute as expected of them it will be an epic win for the Fish going forward.

 

 

^ ^ ^

l l l

 

Trying to prove he actually IS a Marlins fan.

 

He's not really that negative..........unless if he's talking about Gaby Sanchez...

 

I agree, but I couldn't resist. :mischief

By the way.

 

Matt Dominguez: AA - 2010, 20 years old. Isolated Power: .164

Logan Morrison: AA - 2008, 21 years old. Isolated Power: .165

 

Identical power, and Dominugez is a year younger. AKA Dominugez has shown more power. Sure, it's extremely unlikely that he'll have anywhere near the OBP Logan will, but you cannot ignore his power potential at all.

 

And FTR, in 2008, leagues ISO was .136, while in 2010 it's been merely .125. Matt is even further outperforming the league (in power numbers) relative to Logan despite being a year younger.

 

 

This doesn't say too much. Logan's power potential long-term is probably high because of his build and his overall hitting style and ability, but in the short term his power production is probably greatly over-estimated on this board. His power in AA was influenced by an injury and was generally pretty disappointing.

Logan Morrison is the next Adrian Gonzalez and Matt Dominguez is the next Scott Rolen. We're set.

I wouldn't give him anymore than 3 years. I'm even hesitant on year 3.

 

If we do net him for 3 years, what does this do for Coghlan, our eventual 2B? If Dominguez is projected to come up in 2012 and plays 3B, where do we stick Cogs?

 

I'm just thinking ahead here is all.

 

 

Nothing wrong with thinking ahead.

 

I don't think it means much to Cogs. Too many "if's" at this point. Dominguez is an "if". Heck, Cogs handling 3B is an "if", although not that big of one. Then we have Martinez at SS in AA that could also be moved to either 3B or 2B and be ready to go later next season or 2012. For all we know, he could be deemed ready next ST. And that's not even considering bring in other guys via trade or FA. We have a habit of forgetting the surplus of $$ (compared to now) that we will have in 2012.

 

I was surprised to see negotiations going on when this story broke a couple weeks ago. But it makes sense from a biz standpoint, if nothing else. Signing him and/or Ricky shows a reluctant fanbase that the team is looking for stability going into the new pond. That will equal fannies in the seats. Which means $$ to spend. And remember the team motto. Everyone is tradeable. Just because guys sign 3 year (or whatever) contracts dosen't guarantee they will be here 3 years. Same goes for fan favorites. The FO wants that new stadium sold out almost every home game at least for 2012. That means alot of season tickets because the season ticket base is what determines payroll for us. I see this as marketing South Florida style.

 

Yeah, this. It's not a bad thing to have a surplus of quality players, IF that's how it turns out. And I agree with the marketing side. After a disappointing season, they need some good publicity.

 

They can probably get Ricky at a discount, too, considering his inconsistencies. And if he's inked to a reasonable deal, you know he'll at least be a good #4+++ with an ace/#2 ceiling.

 

The only thing I'll disagree with in this post is the notion that Ozzie Martinez could play 3B. He just doesn't have the kind of bat needed most likely, and he doesn't have too much power potential. 2B, though - who knows?

 

I put that out there in a "just in case" scenario. As in Dominguez doesn't work out at the ML level. And also if that happens and we don't fill in the need with a trade or FA. But what I really disagree with is that if you lack the bat where historically it is supposed to be, you just make it up elsewhere.

 

But we are getting ahead of ourselves here. We're talking 2012 and beyond. A new era for Marlins baseball. An era when our payroll will be middle of the road. That's a huge jump for us.

I wouldn't give him anymore than 3 years. I'm even hesitant on year 3.

 

If we do net him for 3 years, what does this do for Coghlan, our eventual 2B? If Dominguez is projected to come up in 2012 and plays 3B, where do we stick Cogs?

 

I'm just thinking ahead here is all.

 

 

Nothing wrong with thinking ahead.

 

I don't think it means much to Cogs. Too many "if's" at this point. Dominguez is an "if". Heck, Cogs handling 3B is an "if", although not that big of one. Then we have Martinez at SS in AA that could also be moved to either 3B or 2B and be ready to go later next season or 2012. For all we know, he could be deemed ready next ST. And that's not even considering bring in other guys via trade or FA. We have a habit of forgetting the surplus of $$ (compared to now) that we will have in 2012.

 

I was surprised to see negotiations going on when this story broke a couple weeks ago. But it makes sense from a biz standpoint, if nothing else. Signing him and/or Ricky shows a reluctant fanbase that the team is looking for stability going into the new pond. That will equal fannies in the seats. Which means $$ to spend. And remember the team motto. Everyone is tradeable. Just because guys sign 3 year (or whatever) contracts dosen't guarantee they will be here 3 years. Same goes for fan favorites. The FO wants that new stadium sold out almost every home game at least for 2012. That means alot of season tickets because the season ticket base is what determines payroll for us. I see this as marketing South Florida style.

 

Yeah, this. It's not a bad thing to have a surplus of quality players, IF that's how it turns out. And I agree with the marketing side. After a disappointing season, they need some good publicity.

 

They can probably get Ricky at a discount, too, considering his inconsistencies. And if he's inked to a reasonable deal, you know he'll at least be a good #4+++ with an ace/#2 ceiling.

 

The only thing I'll disagree with in this post is the notion that Ozzie Martinez could play 3B. He just doesn't have the kind of bat needed most likely, and he doesn't have too much power potential. 2B, though - who knows?

 

I put that out there in a "just in case" scenario. As in Dominguez doesn't work out at the ML level. And also if that happens and we don't fill in the need with a trade or FA. But what I really disagree with is that if you lack the bat where historically it is supposed to be, you just make it up elsewhere.

 

But we are getting ahead of ourselves here. We're talking 2012 and beyond. A new era for Marlins baseball. An era when our payroll will be middle of the road. That's a huge jump for us.

 

I hope an era in which we don't have to rely in our farm system to fill every hole, every position. One where we can look toward free agents on occasion :thumbup

Mike Stanton's current .ISO is .239. :lol

 

 

Sickness

I am hoping the Marlins return to scouting internationally like they used to do.

By the way.

 

Matt Dominguez: AA - 2010, 20 years old. Isolated Power: .164

Logan Morrison: AA - 2008, 21 years old. Isolated Power: .165

 

Identical power, and Dominugez is a year younger. AKA Dominugez has shown more power. Sure, it's extremely unlikely that he'll have anywhere near the OBP Logan will, but you cannot ignore his power potential at all.

 

And FTR, in 2008, leagues ISO was .136, while in 2010 it's been merely .125. Matt is even further outperforming the league (in power numbers) relative to Logan despite being a year younger.

 

 

This doesn't say too much. Logan's power potential long-term is probably high because of his build and his overall hitting style and ability, but in the short term his power production is probably greatly over-estimated on this board. His power in AA was influenced by an injury and was generally pretty disappointing.

 

Even if Logan's is higher, it doesn't mean Dominguez doesn't have significant power potential.

 

I don't know about the injury thing, but look at even their time in A+.

 

Logan Morrison: A+ - 2008, 20 years old. Isolated Power: .162. League ISO: .120. Difference from league average: +42 points

Logan Morrison: A+ - 2009, 21 years old. Isolated Power: .171 League ISO: .111. Difference from league average: +60 points

Matt Dominguez: A+ - 2009, 19 years old. Isolated Power: .158 League ISO: .111. Difference from league average: +47 points.

 

Translation: Dominguez had more negligibly similar power numbers to Morrison, despite being a year younger and in what appeared to be a tougher year for hitters in that league.

 

I'm NOT trying to say that he'll be a better overall hitter than Logan, or even display more power. But the consensus is that Logan has power potential; and Dominguez has shown possibly even MORE power potential than Logan via his stats (not talking about body frame, filling out, scout's stuff, etc.). So how could it be reasonably said that Dominguez doesn't have power potential?

 

Not to mention that Dominguez's power relative to his league is awesome. As on of the absolute youngest players in A+, he had an ISO 42% higher than average - that's tremendous. That same ratio would result in over a .200 ISO in the Majors, which is obviously extreme power (and that was, I repeat, as one of the absolute youngest players in the league). I'm not saying he's going to be a power monster, but he undoubtedly has power potential.

Or trade Coghlan.

 

He'd make a nice utility player for the Yankees or Boston.

 

Uh yeah, you don't make the defending ROY a bench player.

Marlins best sign Uggla before he gets to forty dingers.