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Raise your hand if your team is still on pace for 96 wins?

 

*raises hand*

 

While I do think that this team is in decent shape, by my estimate the team is on pace for 87-88 wins.

 

It's really stupid to extrapolate by the number of wins, because the number of individual events is so small. I think using the Pythagorean is much, much more precise because it helps reduce the weight of those one-run games.

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That sucks....lol

 

Hard to sweep a series when you have the terrible V's at the end of your rotation.

 

 

 

Volstad is not terrible

 

Nah he isn't terrible, hitters are just hitting 300 off him and he has a 1.54 WHIP, other than that pretty decent. He's better than Vazquez though...lol

 

But whatever, like everyone is saying we are in good shape.

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Opposing teams need to get an audience track for a sitcom for when Javy pitches. Canned applause when he comes out to pitch. Laugh track when f***s something up. An "OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!" when he just MIGHT get an out. It's almost gotten to that point of ridiculousness, and I fully admit to be one of the bigger supporters when they got him.

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Raise your hand if your team is still on pace for 96 wins?

 

*raises hand*

 

While I do think that this team is in decent shape, by my estimate the team is on pace for 87-88 wins.

 

It's really stupid to extrapolate by the number of wins, because the number of individual events is so small. I think using the Pythagorean is much, much more precise because it helps reduce the weight of those one-run games.

Last I checked our pyth was like 1 game off our wins.

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That sucks....lol

 

Hard to sweep a series when you have the terrible V's at the end of your rotation.

 

 

 

Volstad is not terrible

 

Nah he isn't terrible, hitters are just hitting 300 off him and he has a 1.54 WHIP, other than that pretty decent. He's better than Vazquez though...lol

 

But whatever, like everyone is saying we are in good shape.

 

According to fangraphs batters are hitting .284 off him and even though his ERA is very high at 5.77, his FIP is 4.35 and xFIP is 3.96 which are numbers more in line with his true abilities.

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Raise your hand if your team is still on pace for 96 wins?

 

*raises hand*

 

While I do think that this team is in decent shape, by my estimate the team is on pace for 87-88 wins.

 

It's really stupid to extrapolate by the number of wins, because the number of individual events is so small. I think using the Pythagorean is much, much more precise because it helps reduce the weight of those one-run games.

Last I checked our pyth was like 1 game off our wins.

Feel free to double check my math (which I did after today's game--BR hasn't updated yet), but I think it's currently two games off.

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Raise your hand if your team is still on pace for 96 wins?

 

*raises hand*

 

While I do think that this team is in decent shape, by my estimate the team is on pace for 87-88 wins.

 

It's really stupid to extrapolate by the number of wins, because the number of individual events is so small. I think using the Pythagorean is much, much more precise because it helps reduce the weight of those one-run games.

Last I checked our pyth was like 1 game off our wins.

Feel free to double check my math (which I did after today's game--BR hasn't updated yet), but I think it's currently two games off.

 

Before today, our Pythag record was of an 89 win team. After today, it is of an 84 win team. We're basically 1/4 the way through the season but our WP% is of a 95 win team. So it's probably almost 3 games off right now.

 

But we also have a top 5 bullpen in baseball. History has shown that teams with great bullpens tend to outperform their Pythag record because they're performing better than expected in high leverage situations.

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Raise your hand if your team is still on pace for 96 wins?

 

*raises hand*

 

While I do think that this team is in decent shape, by my estimate the team is on pace for 87-88 wins.

 

It's really stupid to extrapolate by the number of wins, because the number of individual events is so small. I think using the Pythagorean is much, much more precise because it helps reduce the weight of those one-run games.

Last I checked our pyth was like 1 game off our wins.

 

We were at 89.5 wins based on pyth before today; I'd guess 88 after today.

 

I don't expect them to win 96 games - I don't know anyone who really does - and it was more of a "calm nerves" post. It's kinda funny that you're ripping others for taking things too seriously, but you call posting the team's pace based on current W-L "really stupid." Practice what you want, but if you're going to preach, well, you know how it goes.

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Huh? How are the two the remotely the same?

 

Several people have been extrapolating the win total here. I'm not taking issue with that practice, but am suggesting that there is a more mathematically sound way of doing it. Please don't try to compare that to the exchange in the other thread, because it's reaching.

 

Looking at the Pythagorean is useful and shows where the team stands.

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I was at the 3rd and final game and if not for Vazquez' first inning I think we have a chance to win.

LoMo's error in the 1st didn't help as the Nats ended up scoring another 2 runs.

 

I am not optimistic or even a fan of Vazquez. No pitcher should be that bad ever there is no excuses time to quit Vazquez.

6 hits in the 1st inning.

 

Hanley sucked too getting sick of his crap as well, but we all keep saying oh he will come out of it, he had a couple opportunities to be clutch and was anything but.

 

Overall all I wanted to see was the Marlins take the series and win 2 out of 3 but it's not like this final game surprised us, I mean seriously...

 

Infante pinch hitting was a fail.

 

This team has a chance to be good still just frustrating sometimes, the LOB and RISP reminded me of a Marlins team 2 years ago.

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I like to look at it like this:

 

We're obviously over performing, and maybe it's sustainable, and maybe not. But, if and when we do regress, we have a couple of games in hand, so to speak. You know, if we play like an 84 win team the rest of the way, we'll win 87-88 games, because we had a string of good luck or overperformance relative to expectations in the beginning.

 

So no, we won't win 96 games. But an 84 win pace, extrapolated to the 123 remaining games, gives us 64-65 wins the rest of the way. So we're looking at high 80's.

 

Basically, I don't look at the run differential as a reason to be pessimistic. It's a reason to be thankful for our good fortunes thus far.

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