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Marlins stance on off season


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NEW YORK — Heavy spending didn’t produced the desired results, so the Marlins opted to do some “retooling.�

 

Their four trades in late July moved a number of core players, like Hanley Ramirez, Omar Infante, Anibal Sanchez and Edward Mujica.

 

In the process, the team freed up some salary room. Dealing Ramirez to the Dodgers, for instance, wiped the nearly $40 million that’s owed to him through 2014 off Miami’s books. And the Tigers are on the hook for the rest of Infante’s contract. The infielder is making $4 million this year and next.

 

Many are wondering whether the Marlins will reinvest that money back into player salaries.

 

The simple answer is the organization will be willing to spend, but they are planning on being careful with their dollars. They don’t want to invest in the wrong players.

 

Miami’s Opening Day payroll topped $100 million. Chances are, it won’t be that high in 2013. But then again, it also won’t likely dip to much less than $90 million.

 

Team president David Samson notes there is a fine line between retooling and rebuilding.

 

“That’s a tough line,� Samson said. “we’re not rebuilding, we’re retooling. The key is, in our opinion we still have the players we need here to win. Whatever combination you put into that pot of players, this year, it didn’t work. So we needed a new combination.�

 

Will the team be reluctant to spend freely next year?

 

“We raised the payroll to a record in ’05, and we didn’t win,� Samson said. “We raised the payroll to a record in ’11, and didn’t win. We raised the payroll again to a new record in ’12 and didn’t win. I’m not sure that was the right answer.�

 

The team isn’t taking a hard stance of not spending again. They just want to be selective.

 

“Now, if we want to get players who will help us and surround our players, we have to do better,� Samson said. “If we want to go into the free agency market, I’m not saying [Jose] Reyes, [Mark] Buehrle and [Heath] Bell are not good. We need to do better with how the team fits together.�

 

– Joe Frisaro

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wait you don't win automatically because you spend a sh*t-ton of money? I aren't understand.

 

50 million towards Health Bell & John Buck wasn't smart spending?

 

SOMEONE EXPLAIN THINGS TO ME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

seriously though, I'm sure it'll be in the 90s range. no worries.

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wait you don't win automatically because you spend a sh*t-ton of money? I aren't understand.

 

50 million towards Health Bell & John Buck wasn't smart spending?

 

SOMEONE EXPLAIN THINGS TO ME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

seriously though, I'm sure it'll be in the 90s range. no worries.

 

 

Don't forget the extra 30 million dollars to Nolasco! :D

 

 

I'm breating a sigh of relief that the Marlins didn't sign Pujols. That would have been a financial disaster.

 

 

Don't forget that we offered $100 million to CJ Wilson as well. If both Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson decided to sign with us, we'd be royally F'ed financially within the next few years.

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There is no issue with a $90+ team.

 

2013

 

C John Buck $6,500,000 Contract

1B Logan Morrison $515,000 CC3

2B Emilio Bonifacio $3,000,000 Arb1 Projection

3B

SS Jose Reyes $10,000,000 Contract

LF Justin Ruggiano $550,000 CC3

CF

RF Mike Stanton $550,000 CC3

B Greg Dobbs $1,600,000 Contract

B Rob Brantly $515,000 CC1

B

B

B Solano/25th Man $515,000 CC1

 

SP Josh Johnson $13,750,000 Contract

SP Mark Buerhle $12,000,000 Contract

SP Ricky Nolasco $11,500,000 Contract

SP Jacob Turner $1,175,000 Contract

SP Wade LeBlanc $515,000 CC2

RP Heath Bell $10,000,000 Contract

RP Steve Cishek $515,000 CC2

RP Nathan Eovaldi $515,000 CC1

RP Ryan Webb $650,000 Arb1 Projection

RP Mike Dunn $515,000 CC3

RP Dan Jennings $515,000 CC1

RP Hatcher/Rosario/MILB FA $515,000 CC1

 

$75,910,000 < - They need a longterm CF, a starting 3B, a platoon partner for Ruggiano, and another infield bench bat.

 

They could go all in on Bourn/Melky and get him for $10-12 a year or so, sign Jhonny Peralta (if option not picked up) for 2 years probably around $5-6 a season, and get a veteran OF and veteran IF bat for probably $1-3 million each. Mid 90s, team is pretty good on paper, and there is some midseason depth with Hand in AAA, Yelich/Ozuna/Fernandez/Conley in AA by midseason, and some various RP power arms. Not a bad situation.

 

Moving into 2014, JJ, Nolasco, Buck, and Dobbs would be off the books which frees up $32 millionish, minus raises cumulatively between Buerhle, Reyes, Stanton, Morrison, Bonifacio, Cishek, Turner, and Rugginao around $23-25 million... add in Yelich, Fernandez, Cox, and Hand into LF, SP4, Bench 2B/3B, and SP5 and the team is around $85-90 in payroll, and needs to buy 1 SP and 1-2 bench bats. i.e., there is money for a big free agent starter acquisition/keep JJ.

 

This year is a disaster, but they are in better shape than most Marlins fans believe. Of course, a lot is dependent on Morrison, Turner, Yelich, Fernandez, Eovaldi, Brantly, Conley, Hand, LeBlanc, Dunn, etc., becoming good solid MLB players, but all organizations run under that assumption. I like their chances. They just need a center fielder longterm and some hold down the fort veterans.

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I think every year people here overestimate the Marlins' chances for the next season because they make the assumption by default that underperforming players start performing, young players who have "upside" manage to reach it, and everyone stays healthy.

 

It's cool to be optimistic and all, but unless the Marlins make some crazy moves in the offseason, I can't imagine them being better than the Nationals.

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I really think that the Marlins will find some way to dump Bell in the offseason even if they have to eat a little of that salary. I would be shocked if Bell is back.

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I think every year people here overestimate the Marlins' chances for the next season because they make the assumption by default that underperforming players start performing, young players who have "upside" manage to reach it, and everyone stays healthy.

 

It's cool to be optimistic and all, but unless the Marlins make some crazy moves in the offseason, I can't imagine them being better than the Nationals.

 

That looks like a .500 team IF things go well.

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I really think that the Marlins will find some way to dump Bell in the offseason even if they have to eat a little of that salary. I would be shocked if Bell is back.

 

 

Why would they dump him? After today's beautiful outing, it's pretty clear he figured it out. Amazingly enough, he didn't need any outside help to do so.

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I would be thoroughly not optimistic about that rotation. No true ace, and maybe 3 #5s.

 

 

You don't see Josh Johnson as an ace?

 

I agree regarding the rotation, though. Even overall, the team does not look very good.

He struggles to stay healthy, his strikeouts are down, his MPH is down, and his ERA+ is 105, AKA just above average. I'm not convinced he's an ace at this point, unfortunately.

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I would be thoroughly not optimistic about that rotation. No true ace, and maybe 3 #5s.

 

 

You don't see Josh Johnson as an ace?

 

I agree regarding the rotation, though. Even overall, the team does not look very good.

He struggles to stay healthy, his strikeouts are down, his MPH is down, and his ERA+ is 105, AKA just above average. I'm not convinced he's an ace at this point, unfortunately.

 

He may not have the numbers of an ace this season, but I think looking at his overall body of work, he still deserves the title of an ace. His numbers aren't that bad, really. I don't think one season should strip that title away from him.

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Relying on and spending a ton of money in free agency has rarely, if ever worked. See the Texas Rangers of the early 2000's and the Yankees of the mid 2000's. They spent a ton of money on veteran players but were unable to win a World Series.

 

There should always be a mix of building the farm system and adding players where needed. That comes from solid drafting and a little luck that players pan out.

 

Retooling, rebuilding, same thing. It's going to be tough to win unless you have a solid core of starting pitching.

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I would be thoroughly not optimistic about that rotation. No true ace, and maybe 3 #5s.

 

 

You don't see Josh Johnson as an ace?

 

I agree regarding the rotation, though. Even overall, the team does not look very good.

He struggles to stay healthy, his strikeouts are down, his MPH is down, and his ERA+ is 105, AKA just above average. I'm not convinced he's an ace at this point, unfortunately.

 

He may not have the numbers of an ace this season, but I think looking at his overall body of work, he still deserves the title of an ace. His numbers aren't that bad, really. I don't think one season should strip that title away from him.

His numbers aren't ace-like this season and he can't be called an ace right now simply on account of his past performance. Pitchers can tail off after major injuries--there was a lot of concern (at least on my end) about how Johnson would emerge after the shoulder problems last season.

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I would be thoroughly not optimistic about that rotation. No true ace, and maybe 3 #5s.

 

 

You don't see Josh Johnson as an ace?

 

I agree regarding the rotation, though. Even overall, the team does not look very good.

He struggles to stay healthy, his strikeouts are down, his MPH is down, and his ERA+ is 105, AKA just above average. I'm not convinced he's an ace at this point, unfortunately.

 

He may not have the numbers of an ace this season, but I think looking at his overall body of work, he still deserves the title of an ace. His numbers aren't that bad, really. I don't think one season should strip that title away from him.

His numbers aren't ace-like this season and he can't be called an ace right now simply on account of his past performance. Pitchers can tail off after major injuries--there was a lot of concern (at least on my end) about how Johnson would emerge after the shoulder problems last season.

 

They are not ace like, but let's not act like he's pitching like Tim Lincecum. He's still within the top 20 in baseball in WAR, FIP and xFIP. I'm not going to strip the ace title away from him because of this one season.

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They are not ace like, but let's not act like he's pitching like Tim Lincecum. He's still within the top 20 in baseball in WAR, FIP and xFIP. I'm not going to strip the ace title away from him because of this one season.

 

Relying so heavily on FIP metrics (and pitcher's WAR derives a lot from that) in making your claim isn't really fair. His numbers are decent in those areas because they ignore the BIP problems he's been having--more hits and one of the highest LD% rates in baseball. This of course goes back to the injury, which most likely induced stronger contact by way of a considerable drop in velocity.

 

FIP numbers have utility but you need to use them with caution. If you go by WAR, Johnson is beating out and Jered Weaver and Matt Cain this season. That is LOLworthy to me.

 

It's not going out on a limb by looking at the velocity data and assuming that he's not the same pitcher he was in a physical sense in 2009-2010. If he were throwing 94-95 this season, I'd be more inclined to give him more benefit of the doubt, but he averaged 91.59 in his last start. If you are going to make realistic projections about his performance you need to consider the fact that the blown-out shoulder appears to have had severe consequences on his fastball velocity. You need to look at the most current data and they indicate that some key aspects of his game have fundamentally changed since he was an "ace."

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They are not ace like, but let's not act like he's pitching like Tim Lincecum. He's still within the top 20 in baseball in WAR, FIP and xFIP. I'm not going to strip the ace title away from him because of this one season.

 

Relying so heavily on FIP metrics (and pitcher's WAR derives a lot from that) in making your claim isn't really fair. His numbers are decent in those areas because they ignore the BIP problems he's been having--more hits and one of the highest LD% rates in baseball. This of course goes back to the injury, which most likely induced stronger contact by way of a considerable drop in velocity.

 

FIP numbers have utility but you need to use them with caution. If you go by WAR, Johnson is beating out and Jered Weaver and Matt Cain this season. That is LOLworthy to me.

 

It's not going out on a limb by looking at the velocity data and assuming that he's not the same pitcher he was in a physical sense in 2009-2010. If he were throwing 94-95 this season, I'd be more inclined to give him more benefit of the doubt, but he averaged 91.59 in his last start. If you are going to make realistic projections about his performance you need to consider the fact that the blown-out shoulder appears to have had severe consequences on his fastball velocity. You need to look at the most current data and they indicate that some key aspects of his game have fundamentally changed since he was an "ace."

 

I'm not going to disagree with the fact that he's not the same since his 2010 season. That is pretty obvious. I don't think the dropped velocity or high line drive rate should take away his title as an ace, though. He's clearly not as good as he was in 09/10/11, but I don't think he's performing bad enough to be dropped from the ace category. He can still perform at a high enough level even with the high line drive% or decrease in velocity.

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I'm not going to disagree with the fact that he's not the same since his 2010 season. That is pretty obvious. I don't think the dropped velocity or high line drive rate should take away his title as an ace, though. He's clearly not as good as he was in 09/10/11, but I don't think he's performing bad enough to be dropped from the ace category. He can still perform at a high enough level even with the high line drive% or decrease in velocity.

 

Huh? Aren't you admitting that his production isn't ace caliber? This is contradicting yourself.

 

What I'm essentially doing is making a projection based upon the most recent data, which has been compiled after a major injury. Based upon that, I don't expect a return to those 2009-2010 figures. I see no reason to dwell on the past when the pitcher is no longer the same.

 

By the way--fWAR (which I assume you quoted earlier) weighs somewhat heavily on FIP figures. rWAR (I believe) does not use them and thus treats Johnson much less favorably. I don't know the exact rank, but I doubt it's anywhere near the top 20 in MLB.

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I'm not going to disagree with the fact that he's not the same since his 2010 season. That is pretty obvious. I don't think the dropped velocity or high line drive rate should take away his title as an ace, though. He's clearly not as good as he was in 09/10/11, but I don't think he's performing bad enough to be dropped from the ace category. He can still perform at a high enough level even with the high line drive% or decrease in velocity.

 

Huh? Aren't you admitting that his production isn't ace caliber? This is contradicting yourself.

 

What I'm essentially doing is making a projection based upon the most recent data, which has been compiled after a major injury. Based upon that, I don't expect a return to those 2009-2010 figures. I see no reason to dwell on the past when the pitcher is no longer the same.

 

By the way--fWAR (which I assume you quoted earlier) weighs somewhat heavily on FIP figures. rWAR (I believe) does not use them and thus treats Johnson much less favorably. I don't know the exact rank, but I doubt it's anywhere near the top 20 in MLB.

 

I've stated that. What I meant in the bold statement was he hasn't performed bad enough this season to drop his status as an ace based on what he has done in his career overall. Now, If he has another season like this, I would be ok with not calling him an ace. But I don't think we should do that now because of one season that isn't even over.

 

I don't expect a return of the 2009/2010 JJ, velocity wise. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect he could still be an ace, though.

 

Edit:LOL, I just realized what fWAR and rWAR were. Yes, I referenced fWAR.

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he's pitched better since the first couple months of the season but overall anyone who has watched JJ this year can see his stuff isn't the same as it was in years past. The dip in velocity has really hurt him this year. Maybe with another year of offseason conditioning he can bounce back but then again he seems to suffer an injury every other year (without looking it up - it certainly seems that way). I don't like our starters going into next season at all...and yes, I may be a pessimist but Turner still makes me think of Andrew Miller based on his scouting reports.

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