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Marlins Thoughts from a GM and a Scout


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WEDNESDAY BUZZ COLUMN

 

With the regular season beginning next week, we solicited input on the Marlins from a former general manager (MLB Network’s Dan O’Dowd) and a respected American League scout who watched Miami a lot this spring. Their feedback:

 

• On the rotation: O’Dowd: “I saw Jarred Cosart [last week] and that’s the best I’ve seen him throw since he was in Houston. He is crucial for their success, a real key to their season. He can take a big step that other guys with limited ability can’t. Jose Fernandez, of course, can dominate. Wei-Yin Chen will be a valuable innings eater. Tom Koehler is consistently a steady guy. We liked Adam Conley [when O’Dowd was Rockies GM]. He can be a solid contributor to a rotation.”

 

The scout: “Conley has thrown really well. I’ve seen him twice and he was throwing 94 to 96 [mph] the first and as high as 97 the second. The velocity is there. The stuff is plenty good enough to get guys out…. Cosart is throwing well.  It’s not the stuff with him; he has to locate.”  

 

• Bullpen: O’Dowd: “AJ Ramos can close but it’s is crucial they fill [the seventh, eighth-inning role]. Even if you ask [Marlins executive] Michael Hill, that would be his question mark… Bryan Morris has a great arm.Mike Dunn has been good for them, but can he throw enough quality strikes?”

 

The scout: “The bullpen is their issue. Ramos wouldn’t be my choice on a good club to be my closer. When [lefty] Craig Breslow was effective, what he did really well was he was a reverse splits guy; he really dominated righties. He will throw strikes. But they’ve got their work cut out for them. Dunn and Morris are OK but not great. You would like more there. Edwin Jackson, the velocity is still good enough and he was better [as spring went on]. But he always has had trouble finishing off hitters.”

 

• Outfield thoughts: O’Dowd: “Giancarlo Stanton is an 8 to 10 WAR player [what he’s worth in wins above a replacement player] when he plays an entire season… Last year was a wakeup call for Marcell Ozuna; he has so much talent and I expect him to have a very productive year. Christian Yelich can contend for the batting title at some point. When he gets more comfortable defining his strike zone, he can hit for power, too. It’s a swing I like to show younger players.”

 

The scout: “Ozuna’s body looks live; he has pep in his step. It looks like he’s going to have a good year. He is driving the ball so you would think there would be some more power [than last season]…. With Stanton’s injury history, you hold your breath when he goes to the wall to make a catch.”

 

• Infield thoughts: The scout: “Justin Bour doesn’t excite me as a middle of the order threat. I want to see more… [Adeiny] Hechavarria has become really steady. He sucks up everything hit to him… Dee Gordonhas been swinging better lately. He'll be fine [off last year's batting title]. But [Martin] Prado hasn’t looked all that good; you could see a decline this year.”

 

O’Dowd: “With Bour, you can’t expect more than last year (.262, 23 homers, 73 RBI in 129 games). What happens with expectations is people say, ‘Justin did X in 2015, he should be able to do Y in 2016.’ That usually is a killer. Chris Johnson is a low-risk pickup.”

 

• On manager Don Mattingly: O’Dowd: “What Don brings is an incredible amount of consistency with his approach day in and day out; he never gets too high or too low. Mattingly has been good handling bullpens; he doesn’t overreact. All of the drama and experience gained in L.A. will apply in ways you can’t measure. The wisdom he has gained on handling people and volatile situations will be incredibly important.”

 

• Overall: O’Dowd: “They are behind the Mets and Nationals going into the season. Those two clubs have fewer question marks. But the Marlins are talented. Sometimes it takes time for talent for show. I expect them to be a sleeper team. They will score runs; their young catcher [JT Realmuto] is one of the better young catchers in the game; they will catch the ball without question. The bullpen is one area that will have to organically come together.”

 

The scout: He could see them as a .500 team, maybe a bit better if everything breaks right, and third in the division behind the Mets and Washington.

 

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/sports-buzz/2016/03/former-gm-scout-evaluate-marlins-did-mario-williams-quit-whitesides-offensive-growth-um-football.html

 

From Barry Jackson's column.

 

 

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Guest Vince0926
The Nationals and Mets definitely have more question marks than the Marlins.  Neither of them are good teams.  Our question marks may be worse, but there are fewer of them, and I think our ceiling is higher than theirs.

 

Brad hand and Jackson laugh at this comment 

 

 

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The Nationals and Mets definitely have more question marks than the Marlins.  Neither of them are good teams.  Our question marks may be worse, but there are fewer of them, and I think our ceiling is higher than theirs.

 

Maybe combined they have more than the Marlins.

 

Maybe.

 

 

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The Mets have five starters (counting Wheeler when he comes back, not Colon) who have the upside of Jose Fernandez.

 

The Nationals have the best offensive player in baseball whose name doesn't rhyme with Pike Doubt.

 

I agree that the muts rotation is far superior to ours, but none of those guys have Jose upside brah

 

 

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I agree that the muts rotation is far superior to ours, but none of those guys have Jose upside brah

 

Maybe not Matz, but Harvey definitely does and Wheeler, DeGrom, and Syndergaard probably do too. Either way, they're all significantly better than anyone not named Jose. Their 5th starter could be better than our entire rotation combined minus Jose.

 

 

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Maybe not Matz, but Harvey definitely does and Wheeler, DeGrom, and Syndergaard probably do too. Either way, they're all significantly better than anyone not named Jose. Their 5th starter could be better than our entire rotation combined minus Jose.

 

And Colon in the pen if one of those guys doesn't have it for that particular day. Just filthy. 

 

 

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The Nationals have a questionable bullpen, a questionable top of the order, and a questionable bottom of the order.  

 

The Mets have a questionable offense altogether.

 

The Marlins have a highly questionable bullpen.

 

I'll start here.

 

c d'arnoud

 

1b duda

 

2b walker

 

ss cabrera

 

3b wright

 

lf conforto

 

cf cespedes

 

rf granderson

 

ok.  its highly questionable.  

 

 

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I'll start here.

 

c d'arnoud

 

1b duda

 

2b walker

 

ss cabrera

 

3b wright

 

lf conforto

 

cf cespedes

 

rf granderson

 

ok.  its highly questionable.  

 

All I have to say is that neither the Mets nor the Nationals lineups scare me.  I'll take the Marlins lineup any day over those two clubs. They do however have superior pitching by far.  The Mets won't need to score that many runs anyway.

 

 

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They might, but they will probably end up close but not quite there.

 

Yelich might.  Ozuna is less likely.

 

The Mets lineup is not that bad, their defense in center especially is going to be ugly.  

 

Their rotation is far and away better than the Marlins, their bullpen is better than the Marlins as well.  

 

The Marlins have gaping holes in the bullpen.  They have gaping holes on the bench and heaven forbid they dont get 150 games from ANYONE thats in the normal everyday 8 (plus bour is SHIT v lefties)

 

 

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c d'arnoud (.825 OPS)    c Realmuto (.696 OPS)

 

1b duda (.838 OPS)       1b Bour (.800 OPS)

 

2b walker (.756 OPS)     2b Gordon (.776 OPS)

 

ss cabrera (.744 OPS)      ss Hechavarria (.689 OPS)

 

3b wright (.813 OPS)      3b Prado (.732 OPS)

 

lf conforto (.841 OPS)     lf Yelich (.782 OPS)

 

cf cespedes (.870 OPS)   cf Ozuna (.691 OPS)

 

rf granderson (.821 OPS) rf Stanton (.952 OPS)

 

Mets average OPS (.813). Marlins average OPS (.765). Stanton helps keep the gap far more respectable than it should be.

 

And that is at least one part of the difference between a World Series team and an under .500 team.

 

 

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Before the season starts, it's nice to have faith in your team.... But if you approach this logically (which I do realize is far less fun) the Marlins are a lot more similar to the Phillies than they are to the Mets. I know I'll get crucified for saying it, but we are not close to the Mets or Nationals.

 

I hate the Mets very much, but I am not going to deny that they have put together a rotation that is going to be very difficult for us to deal with, for the foreseeable future. That offense will be more than sufficient.... Outside of Jose Fernandez, we don't have a lot of talented arms in the rotation. All of them are underwhelming, and half of our bullpen won't be on the MLB roster by the end of May. I can name 25 closers that I would rather have than AJ Ramos....The only thing that is consistent about the Marlins is how inconsistent they are, each year. The front office is undeniably incompetent, and if it weren't for the fact that this is the team that I grew up rooting for- I wouldn't spend a dime to support them. We won't win more than 5 games against the Mets this year.

 

But hey, at least they aren't the Dolphins.

 

 

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c d'arnoud (.825 OPS)    c Realmuto (.696 OPS)

 

1b duda (.838 OPS)       1b Bour (.800 OPS)

 

2b walker (.756 OPS)     2b Gordon (.776 OPS)

 

ss cabrera (.744 OPS)      ss Hechavarria (.689 OPS)

 

3b wright (.813 OPS)      3b Prado (.732 OPS)

 

lf conforto (.841 OPS)     lf Yelich (.782 OPS)

 

cf cespedes (.870 OPS)   cf Ozuna (.691 OPS)

 

rf granderson (.821 OPS) rf Stanton (.952 OPS)

 

Mets average OPS (.813). Marlins average OPS (.765). Stanton helps keep the gap far more respectable than it should be.

 

And that is at least one part of the difference between a World Series team and an under .500 team.

 

Thanks for putting together that for me!

 

I actually think both 3b will be lower in OPS this year than last year, but I guess it will still be a wash.  

 

 

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c d'arnoud (.825 OPS)    c Realmuto (.696 OPS)

 

1b duda (.838 OPS)       1b Bour (.800 OPS)

 

2b walker (.756 OPS)     2b Gordon (.776 OPS)

 

ss cabrera (.744 OPS)      ss Hechavarria (.689 OPS)

 

3b wright (.813 OPS)      3b Prado (.732 OPS)

 

lf conforto (.841 OPS)     lf Yelich (.782 OPS)

 

cf cespedes (.870 OPS)   cf Ozuna (.691 OPS)

 

rf granderson (.821 OPS) rf Stanton (.952 OPS)

 

Mets average OPS (.813). Marlins average OPS (.765). Stanton helps keep the gap far more respectable than it should be.

 

And that is at least one part of the difference between a World Series team and an under .500 team.

 

Good work! Conforto is going to be a stud.

 

 I can't believe yelich got his ops up to .782 after that terrible start. Very nice. 

 

A fun comparison would be steamer zips 2016 projected OPS on a player by player basis!

 

 

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Good work! Conforto is going to be a stud.

 

 I can't believe yelich got his ops up to .782 after that terrible start. Very nice. 

 

A fun comparison would be steamer zips 2016 projected OPS on a player by player basis!

 

As a collective, I would take the Marlins outfield over that Mets outfield any day.  And regardless of OPS I would take Dee and Hech over Walker and Cabrera in a heartbeat.  

 

 

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