Yelich got out this team that that going young we going have long season i do see other guy from last season left on team ask for to be trade

 

 

won a world series in my first  year there, then went to the playoffs like 4 years in a row after.....

 

Just dont take for granted how great it is to be a fan of that kind of baseball franchise.

 

 

I find it interesting that Monte Harrison is on the 2018 BA top 100 and that Isan Diaz isn't.  It also looks like Diaz will be falling off of the MLB top 100 on Saturday when the new rankings come out.  Maybe Harrison will make the MLB 100 as well?  That would still give us two top 100 players in this trade just not who we originally thought. Not that it makes a difference.

 

 

I find it interesting that Monte Harrison is on the 2018 BA top 100 and that Isan Diaz isn't.  It also looks like Diaz will be falling off of the MLB top 100 on Saturday when the new rankings come out.  Maybe Harrison will make the MLB 100 as well?  That would still give us two top 100 players in this trade just not who we originally thought. Not that it makes a difference.

 

Diaz is coming off a hamate bone injury.

 

 

Thursday’s Christian Yelich deal with Milwaukee netted Miami four prospects: OF Lewis Brinson, 2B Isan Diaz, OF Monte Harrison, and RHP Jordan Yamamoto. Full, deeper reports on each of these players is available on our Brewers pref list, but below are condensed summaries of each.

 

Lewis Brinson, CF (60 FV) – It’s important to note that Brinson opinions among scouts and executive vary pretty widely, especially for a player who has performed at the upper levels of the minors. Some people just don’t think he’s going to hit, but Brinson has made relevant swing adjustments multiple times as a pro and his strikeout rate has dropped every season. It’s been a very reasonable 20% over the last two years and he has monster complementary tools in plus power and plus speed.

 

If there’s anything to be worried about here, it’s Brinson’s medical history, which includes several soft-tissue lower-body injuries, like hamstring strains. If he’s ever forced to move to a corner-outfield spot (most scouts think the margin for error is pretty thin in this regard, as Brinson’s feel for center is just okay), then all aspects of Brinson’s offensive potential need to arrive if he’s going to be a star. But we know he’s a terrific athlete, we have visual evidence of him making adjustments that the data supports, and so we’re optimistic about Brinson.

 

Monte Harrison, CF (55 FV) – Harrison has elite physical ability. He’s a plus runner with a great chance to stay in center field, at least plus raw power, and elite arm strength. Injuries dashed his first three pro seasons but 2017 represented a breakout. Harrison both tweaked the way his hands set up pre-swing, unlocking more of power, and managed finally to sustain his health. He too often chases pitches out of the zone and probably still needs to make a few mechanical tweaks to get to all of that power so, like Brinson a few years ago, his profile is considered volatile.

 

Isan Diaz, 2B (50 FV) – Diaz has plus raw power and an extreme uppercut swing that magnifies other traits which make him strikeout-prone. He didn’t have a great 2017 and is a fringey defender at second base, but his gorgeous uphill swing is such that he projects to get to much of his raw power in games. Combined with his patient approach and ability to reach base, that should enable him to become a productive big leaguer.

 

Jordan Yamamoto, RHP (40 FV) – Yamamoto is a 6-foot righty whose high-spin fastball plays well at the letters, but it’s important for Yamamoto to live high in the zone with his heater and not allow it to loiter any further down because it’s only 89-92 and will get whacked. He also has a doozy of a curveball that projects to plus. Everything else is fringey, and we have him projected in the bullpen, where the fastball will tick up.

 

*****

 

There’s a common thread of concern that runs through each of these hitters — namely, regarding their ability to make contact. Hitters like this are invariably seen as riskier than their peers, as there’s always a chance that they can’t hit big-league pitching well enough to be any kind of big leaguer at all. We don’t truly know this until we see them hit big-league pitching (also known as the Brandon Wood allegory).

 

But the reasons each of them have struggled to hit — Brinson had breaking-ball recognition issues early in his career and is a long-levered guy, Harrison chases and has mediocre bat control, Diaz runs deep counts and has a steep bat path — are different, and it’s important that we know and think about that. People in player evaluation have different opinions about which of these traits can and can’t be addressed during the developmental process. It would take years of minor-league plate-discipline data to figure it out statistically, but perhaps teams already have.

 

The prospects Miami has gotten in return for their star big-league veterans this offseason seem to indicate a strategy that contrasts with the sort colleague Kiley McDaniel identified with regard to the Pirates. Pittsburgh has pursued near-ready, low-variance prospects who are likely to be competent big-league contributors during their pre-arb seasons. The hitters in this deal, meanwhile — and, I’d argue, most of the prospects Miami has acquired this offseason — have such loud complementary tools that they have a great chance to be effective major leaguers even if their bats don’t totally develop.

 

There’s a chance Sandy Alcantara and Jorge Guzman “only” become late-inning relievers and that Magneuris Sierra maxes out as a dynamite defensive outfielder who can’t hit, etc. Even if the fate of most of these players is something short of what scouts project based on physical tools or athleticism, they are still 40 or 45 FV types of players. That’s not much worse than what we expect from the kind of package Kiley says small-market teams covet.

 

If one or two of these acquisitions puts everything together (Alcantara or Guzman become No. 2 starters or Monte Harrison does what Bo Jackson would have done if he’d have played only baseball), then the Marlins have a star that teams in their kind of market can’t attract or afford (if you believe their owners). I think that trade-off is worth considering. Independent of their bad-faith financial motivations, this was Miami’s best haul of talent so far this offseason.

 

Also of note is Miami’s 40-man roster, which currently has three outfielders: Brinson, Sierra and Braxton Lee, who was acquired via trade from Tampa Bay ahead of July’s deadline. All three can really fly (Lee and Sierra are 70 runners) and have a chance to see lots of playing time in 2018. Sierra and Brinson have already had a taste of the majors and Lee looked terrific in the Arizona Fall League.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-lewis-brinson-and-the-rest-of-the-yelich-return/

 

Fangraphs on the trade.

 

 

Diaz is coming off a hamate bone injury.

 

Yes, I get that.  I like Diaz.  I just thought it was interesting how many on this board, including myself, were looking for top 100 talent back and Diaz is falling off and Harrison is probably going on.  I wasn't trying to demean the return we received. I would even argue that we got 3 players back that are top 100 talents. I guess the bottom line is that a top 100 rating is very arbitrary and not the best barometer on trades.

 

 

Didnt even realize how well Harrison played in the AFL on top of his really good year last year.  Only got 53 ab's, but hit .283, .937 OPS, 5 HR's, 14 RBI's against really good competition.  

 

 

Yamamoto's last 5 starts to end the year last year in the equivalent of our Jupiter league (A+ ball):

 

6 IP, 1 ER, 7 K's, 2 BB, 4 H

 

7 IP, 0 ER, 5 's, 1 BB, 3 H

 

6 IP, 0 ER, 8 k's, 1 BB, 4 H

 

7 IP 0 ER, 7 k's, 1 BB, 3 H

 

7 IP, 0 ER, 7 k's, 1 BB, 7 H

 

Apparently doesnt have the best pure stuff, but he's been straight up great the last 2 years and was the appropriate age relative to his level in each year.  I'd imagine he spends the entire year in Jacksonville. 

 

 

Im sort of upset we didnt get Mario Feliciano from the brewers now that we know JT is next. Feliciano is going to be a special player, not because i know him and his family in PR personally, but because the kid has always over achieved, and is hard working and determined. One heck of a catching prospect.

 

 

I am very disappointed they did not get a projectable ace level pitcher for him.

 

Not loving this, but of course, if they get a new # 1 pitching prospect for Realmuto, get another Niedert and M. Gonzalez for Straily/Bour/Castro trades, pick a college SP with their 1/2 pick in 2018 draft, and presumably pick another pitcher with the first pick in the 2019 draft, I guess that's all right.

 

Hard to see how 270 losses isn't the best case scenario next 3 years.

 

 

I am very disappointed they did not get a projectable ace level pitcher for him.

 

Not loving this, but of course, if they get a new # 1 pitching prospect for Realmuto, get another Niedert and M. Gonzalez for Straily/Bour/Castro trades, pick a college SP with their 1/2 pick in 2018 draft, and presumably pick another pitcher with the first pick in the 2019 draft, I guess that's all right.

 

Hard to see how 270 losses isn't the best case scenario next 3 years.

 

So you thought Yelich was worth Brinson + an ace level pitcher and more? Or are you saying we should’ve aimed for a best prospect pitcher instead of Brinson in the deal?

 

Because Yelich isn’t worth Brinson + an ace prospect and more. Very few players are.

 

 

So you thought Yelich was worth Brinson + an ace level pitcher and more? Or are you saying we should’ve aimed for a best prospect pitcher instead of Brinson in the deal?

 

Because Yelich isn’t worth Brinson + an ace prospect and more. Very few players are.

 

I had the same question for him.  I think we've gotten a ton of pitching in other deals, still have Realmuto + to deal, and we desperately needed hitting prospects, so im not sure why Lou is so insistent on needing to have gotten an ace level guy.  We just got at least 2 top 100 hitters and another borderline top 100 hitter as well as an interesting SP prospect.  This was a really solid deal in both depth and star power.

 

 

You can’t just ignore hitting prospects either. Has any team ever used that as a rebuild strategy?

 

 

So you thought Yelich was worth Brinson + an ace level pitcher and more? Or are you saying we should’ve aimed for a best prospect pitcher instead of Brinson in the deal?

 

Because Yelich isn’t worth Brinson + an ace prospect and more. Very few players are.

 

Should have aimed for a starting pitching prospect instead of 2 outfielders.

 

I would also have been fine if that SP prospect was the # 2 guy in the deal, but they really need to get more pitching and Yelich was their best bet to get it besides the draft.

 

 

Should have aimed for a starting pitching prospect instead of 2 outfielders.

 

I would also have been fine if that SP prospect was the # 2 guy in the deal, but they really need to get more pitching and Yelich was their best bet to get it besides the draft.

 

they really need to get more hitting too.  We've gone after pitching in every trade we've made since july, have drastically increased our depth in that area already, and had nothing in the way of good hitting prospects.

 

 

Should have aimed for a starting pitching prospect instead of 2 outfielders.

 

I would also have been fine if that SP prospect was the # 2 guy in the deal, but they really need to get more pitching and Yelich was their best bet to get it besides the draft.

 

I feel like you get the best assets.

 

These OF’ers we’re getting can also be traded for pitching later on when the rebuild reaches another stage. That’s what the Brewers are currently doing.

 

 

You can’t just ignore hitting prospects either. Has any team ever used that as a rebuild strategy?

 

Most teams are explicitly using the opposite strategy more and more in the last decade or so.  I personally would take a top hitting prospect over a top pitching prospect if i had to choose between the 2.

 

 

I feel like you get the best assets.

 

These OF’ers we’re getting can also be traded for pitching later on when the rebuild reaches another stage. That’s what the Brewers are currently doing.

 

They didn't get the best assets though imo, they now have 2, maybe 3, outfielders whose value is tied to being a center fielder. That is at least according to the scouting reports. Maybe I am jumping the gun and maybe Brinson gets to all of his hitting projections and can move to RF seamlessly so it doesn't matter and Sierra can stay in center with the super premier defense, but you have absolutely not maximized your assets doubling or tripling up on center fielders. This is on paper at least. Likewise, outfielders are the easiest thing to find in baseball. I would never target them this extensively. The best 3 position players they have received in the traders are outfielders.

 

Marlins top 2 pitching prospects are super volatile and could be relievers. Their 3rd is having a tommy john.

 

As I have said elsewhere, this will make more sense to me when I see the full picture - which is trading Realmuto, Straily, Bour, Castro, and Barraclough, and the 2018 draft. Get me 4-5 SP candidates (you can lower this number if Urena/Conley looks like he can be a #4 moving forward), two better than Alcantara/Guzman, and everyone else Gallen or better, and this move makes a little more sense as to not getting pitching in this deal.

 

 

They didn't get the best assets though imo, they now have 2, maybe 3, outfielders whose value is tied to being a center fielder. That is at least according to the scouting reports. Maybe I am jumping the gun and maybe Brinson gets to all of his hitting projections and can move to RF seamlessly so it doesn't matter and Sierra can stay in center with the super premier defense, but you have absolutely not maximized your assets doubling or tripling up on center fielders. This is on paper at least. Likewise, outfielders are the easiest thing to find in baseball. I would never target them this extensively. The best 3 position players they have received in the traders are outfielders.

 

Marlins top 2 pitching prospects are super volatile and could be relievers. Their 3rd is having a tommy john.

 

As I have said elsewhere, this will make more sense to me when I see the full picture - which is trading Realmuto, Straily, Bour, Castro, and Barraclough, and the 2018 draft. Get me 4-5 SP candidates (you can lower this number if Urena/Conley looks like he can be a #4 moving forward), two better than Alcantara/Guzman, and everyone else Gallen or better, and this move makes a little more sense as to not getting pitching in this deal.

 

Ok, but there’s nothing wrong with having 3 CF’ers. That’s usually the OF spot you target from a scouting perspective. Normally the CF’er is the most athletic OF’er, capable of moving to a corner spot. 

 

I agree they need more pitching, but I wasn’t expecting them to have everything figured out this offseason. I was expecting them to shed payroll and obtain assets.

 

 

Ok, but there’s nothing wrong with having 3 CF’ers. That’s usually the OF spot you target from a scouting perspective. Normally the CF’er is the most athletic OF’er, capable of moving to a corner spot. 

 

I agree they need more pitching, but I wasn’t expecting them to have everything figured out this offseason. I was expecting them to shed payroll and obtain assets.

 

Ya, if anything we just made sure our OF defense is fucking incredible for a while and hope that at least 2/3 of them can fulfill their hitting potential.  Also, I think Harrison is ultimately a RF given his arm and Brinson to me at least profiles more as a LF.

 

 

Re-reading, I feel like Lou is saying that the OF’ers lose value if they have to move to a corner because of their offense.

 

However, I think both Brinson and Harrison can hit well enough to play a corner OF spot. 

 

Sierra should probably stay in CF because he has no power.

 

 

Re-reading, I feel like Lou is saying that the OF’ers lose value if they have to move to a corner because of their offense.

 

However, I think both Brinson and Harrison can hit well enough to play a corner OF spot. 

 

Sierra should probably stay in CF because he has no power.

 

I understand that, but I think Brinson and Harrison ideally are bat first or at least bat equal (is that a thing) guys to where the value you get on defense is a plus to the offense they will hopefully provide.

 

I just think we needed to desperately increase our talent level with our hitting prospects, and I think we did that.  I also love how Diaz's bat ideally profiles at 2b. Im trying to think of his player comp but i cant think of it off the top of my head.  Maybe a poor man's Daniel Murphy type power hitting lefty 2b bat.

 

 

If we focus on obtaining the best players, we'll be fine. This stuff works itself out. Like Erick said, we can always flip prospects for pitchers

 

 

Re-reading, I feel like Lou is saying that the OF’ers lose value if they have to move to a corner because of their offense.

 

However, I think both Brinson and Harrison can hit well enough to play a corner OF spot. 

 

Sierra should probably stay in CF because he has no power.

 

Yep. If Brinson is going to be a 3 WAR RF but a 4 WAR CF because of defense, and they literally have to play Sierra in CF to maximize him, it's not like Brinson isn't a great player and would really make this trade make sense, but you're just not maxing him out.

 

That being said, you can't argue against if they are going to hit, everything will be fine. That is certainly the cure all, but it's just a potential impact and really hurts Brinson's floor if the bat doesn't come all the way around and part of his value is based on defense alone. If you're not utilizing that?

 

I'm just saying, corner outfielders are the last part of the puzzle to me.

 

 

Yep. If Brinson is going to be a 3 WAR RF but a 4 WAR CF because of defense, and they literally have to play Sierra in CF to maximize him, it's not like Brinson isn't a great player and would really make this trade make sense, but you're just not maxing him out.

 

That being said, you can't argue against if they are going to hit, everything will be fine. That is certainly the cure all, but it's just a potential impact and really hurts Brinson's floor if the bat doesn't come all the way around and part of his value is based on defense alone. If you're not utilizing that?

 

I'm just saying, corner outfielders are the last part of the puzzle to me.

 

That's reasonable to me then.  This is all assuming Sierra even pans out to begin with though, and that is not a guarantee by any stretch of the imagination.