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The Marlins can be a playoff team in 2020


yxnarbo

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I present real tangible facts.

 

You present something that is based upon a differnet league (which is an ok argument), and then one that is rooted in what ifs based on essentially a different set of rules (moronic).

 

I think if you include the AL you are looking at one team that has made the playoffs with 85 wins.

Your "real tangible facts" were that it has not happened in the NL in the last 8 seasons. That is the equivalent of saying that Mike Trout will not hit over .300 next season if his average is lower than .300 in the first week of the season. Sample size matters. If a team makes the playoffs with 85 wins or fewer from each league 1 time in the next 8 seasons or twice in the same league, then it will match the rate of the 5th place team having 85 or fewer wins from 1996-2011 at 9.375% of seasons.

 

Also, baseball is not operating under a dramatically different set of rules now than in 2011. The only difference is that 2 Wild Card teams make the playoffs and division winners get a larger advantage over WC teams than before. This has actually made teams on the bubble more reluctant to trade future assets to make a run at anything less than the division. Why sacrifice future talent which you can use to open a competitive window where you compete for a few division titles just to win 2 or 3 extra games and possibly go home after 1 game in the playoffs. This could have the unintended consequence of having the Wild Card teams with fewer wins and actually make it more likely that a 5th place team has 85 or fewer wins. But like I said, 8 seasons is a relatively small sample size so we will still have to wait a few more seasons to get a clearer picture.

 

But I personally guarantee that is will happen eventually in NL as well as happen again in the AL

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I still think it should be a Wild Card series - but a 3 game series like done normally throughout the season instead of a CS series of 5 games. EVERYTHING in baseball is based upon series, yet you have this single situation where there's one game? Where a single error can be the difference?

 

I just think it's stupid.

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Also, baseball is not operating under a dramatically different set of rules now than in 2011. The only difference is that 2 Wild Card teams make the playoffs and division winners get a larger advantage over WC teams than before.

 

so different rules regardless making comparisons to the one wildcard format and this one moot.

 

thanks for confirming my entire argument.

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so different rules regardless making comparisons to the one wildcard format and this one moot.

 

thanks for confirming my entire argument.

Except for the fact that you did not make an argument. You merely made an assertion and assumed it was true without any supporting arguments. It would be like saying the Yankees have won 27 WS titles because "they are the Yankees." I mean that is technically true, but it does not actually explain why. Maybe you can explain how "different rules" makes an 85 game winner unable or at the very least less likely to make the playoffs. Of you look at my last post, I actually did make an argument by giving reasons why it may make it more likely for an 85 win team to finish with the 5th seed. But like I said we will not be able to discern which hypothesis is true until the sample size is larger than 8 seasons.

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Except for the fact that you did not make an argument. You merely made an assertion and assumed it was true without any supporting arguments. It would be like saying the Yankees have won 27 WS titles because "they are the Yankees." I mean that is technically true, but it does not actually explain why. Maybe you can explain how "different rules" makes an 85 game winner unable or at the very least less likely to make the playoffs. Of you look at my last post, I actually did make an argument by giving reasons why it may make it more likely for an 85 win team to finish with the 5th seed. But like I said we will not be able to discern which hypothesis is true until the sample size is larger than 8 seasons.

 

The argument was that no team in the National League in the current playoff format has made the playoffs.

 

You added in variables that don't even matter from the pre 2 wild card rule, that's revisionist history and it literally is a bad argument because teams and front offices are playing with differnet mindsets.

 

I can get behind the 85 win team making the second wild card because an AL team did it once. Sure.

 

But making an argument about it and using info from before the 2 wild card format is a poor argument and doesnt take into account the mindsets and strategies of front offices as a direct result of the 2 wild card format.

 

Front offices have operated differently since they added a second wild card. That is fact.

 

So while a scan of the standings pre 2 wild cards might reveal a team with 85 wins that would have been in the playoffs, its a bad argument because it literally didnt matter and front offices didnt operate that way, especially if you factor in the teams that may have finished with 70-79 wins may have not sold off and instead stayed the course or pushed to get to that one game to get into the tournamnet.

 

Washington winning from the wildcard will only make teams push more to get into the tournament.

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