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The Marlins can be a playoff team in 2020


yxnarbo
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Solid article, especially good information about the WAR part and how you broke it down. I felt it was very easy to understand the way you explained it. But I also feel you are being a homer with how you view the Marlins will improve.

 

2019 season was a step back from 2018 season. We can expect some improvement, either way, you look at. I think they will get to around 68 + wins. The offense as of right now looks good and the starting pitching will continue to improve. The bullpen is what will need to improve as that was an issue last year.

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I don’t agree on the “easy” part.

 

65 wins would be a EIGHT win improvement. That’s quite substantial and not that much has changed.

 

No Chen will add 2 wins and Villar/Dickerson will get us 3-4 wins but I see Caleb Smith regressing.

Eight wins is a big jump. Also, NL East.

 

That being said, I think the 2021 team has a real shot at 81 wins.

2013 to 2014 was a 15 win improvement. You're telling me you don't think this team can do EIGHT?

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I don’t agree on the “easy” part.

 

65 wins would be a EIGHT win improvement. That’s quite substantial and not that much has changed.

 

No Chen will add 2 wins and Villar/Dickerson will get us 3-4 wins but I see Caleb Smith regressing.

Eight wins is a big jump. Also, NL East.

 

That being said, I think the 2021 team has a real shot at 81 wins.

I was really in depth on this article. It explains exactly how the team can get to 85 wins this season.

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Solid article, especially good information about the WAR part and how you broke it down. I felt it was very easy to understand the way you explained it. But I also feel you are being a homer with how you view the Marlins will improve.

 

2019 season was a step back from 2018 season. We can expect some improvement, either way, you look at. I think they will get to around 68 + wins. The offense as of right now looks good and the starting pitching will continue to improve. The bullpen is what will need to improve as that was an issue last year.

 

Guilty as charged. Yes I like the Marlins lol.

 

But the 85 wins I'm projecting is a bit of an optimistic outlook considering none of the important pieces can miss a game due to injury or other mishap. I understand that things must go perfectly in order to get to that number.

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Guilty as charged. Yes I like the Marlins lol.

 

But the 85 wins I'm projecting is a bit of an optimistic outlook considering none of the important pieces can miss a game due to injury or other mishap. I understand that things must go perfectly in order to get to that number.

I rather liked the article. I thought it was a good exercise in reminding ourselves there's an average range of 10 wins, plus or minus from a team's true talent level, in any given season due to randomness. And for a few teams, that might range from +20 to -20.

 

I think the 2018 Orioles were a -20 team. They were bad, but no one is really that bad. Last year, the Marlins were like -5. There's nothing to stop then from being +20. The key is getting your team's true talent level to playoff or better calibur. Then you can absorb those -10 seasons and still make the playoffs.

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If the Marlins win 20 more games than they’re projected to (which would be 28 more wins than they had in 2019) they STILL wouldn’t make the 2020 playoffs.

 

After much thought and consideration, I hereby declare the article linked in the first post as really dumb.

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If the Marlins win 20 more games than they’re projected to (which would be 28 more wins than they had in 2019) they STILL wouldn’t make the 2020 playoffs.

 

After much thought and consideration, I hereby declare the article linked in the first post as really dumb.

85 wins could definitely get a wild card spot. Especially with so many teams in it. Right now 11 teams in the league have a definite shot of playoff birth. Add the Marlins to that mix and the wins will be more evenly distributed, so 85 can get into the playoffs.

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85 wins could definitely get a wild card spot. Especially with so many teams in it. Right now 11 teams in the league have a definite shot of playoff birth. Add the Marlins to that mix and the wins will be more evenly distributed, so 85 can get into the playoffs.

 

85 wins has never resulted in a playoff berth for any National League team in the current format.

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But your Cardinals won a division (and title) with 83 wins 14 years ago, so shut it, skank.

 

ok?

 

It will take more than 83 wins to win the NL East in 2020.

 

And again key word is current playoff system, but lets ignore that completely. There isnt THAT much parity in the National League.

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There isnt THAT much parity in the National League.

I'd say there is - since 2014, the NL reps in the World Series have been Giants, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers x2, and Nationals. In certain divisions (West) maybe not, but it's not like the same five teams every single year.

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85 wins has never resulted in a playoff berth for any National League team in the current format.

Why only include the NL? And why only include the current format (2 wild card era). You can apply the 2nd wild card to any of the 6 division years (except for strike shortened 1994-5) to see if a team would have made the playoffs with 85 or fewer wins.

 

If you do that the '97 Angels, '01 Twins, '06 Phillies, and '17 Twins would be teams good enough to get the 2nd wild card with 85 or fewer wins.

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Why only include the NL? And why only include the current format (2 wild card era). You can apply the 2nd wild card to any of the 6 division years (except for strike shortened 1994-5) to see if a team would have made the playoffs with 85 or fewer wins.

 

If you do that the '97 Angels, '01 Twins, '06 Phillies, and '17 Twins would be teams good enough to get the 2nd wild card with 85 or fewer wins.

 

Becuase only the NL matters when the Marlins are members of the NL?

 

As far as the pre 2 wild card era, no you cant and thats a moronic argument to make. Teams were not fighting for a second wild card and thus you didnt have the same sense of teams not selling off or adding pieces you have since the second wild card.

 

I present real tangible facts.

 

You present something that is based upon a differnet league (which is an ok argument), and then one that is rooted in what ifs based on essentially a different set of rules (moronic).

 

I think if you include the AL you are looking at one team that has made the playoffs with 85 wins.

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Berti in CF with Anderson in RF and Villar at third.

Anderson is the 3B of the future, and isn't really the fastest guy in the world. I'd rather see him settle into 3B and let Villar's speed and first-step instincts play in CF. See what happens.

 

Berti can get 500 PA spelling literally everyone on the diamond throughout the week. I think that's the best way to use him, keep everyone fresh for that playoff push. ;)

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Anderson is the 3B of the future, and isn't really the fastest guy in the world. I'd rather see him settle into 3B and let Villar's speed and first-step instincts play in CF. See what happens.

 

Berti can get 500 PA spelling literally everyone on the diamond throughout the week. I think that's the best way to use him, keep everyone fresh for that playoff push. ;)

Sure - but Anderson is a VERY good right fielder. He's a good defender either way, and speed isn't the most important in right field - his range works pretty well and his arm is top tier.

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If the Marlins win 20 more games than they’re projected to (which would be 28 more wins than they had in 2019) they STILL wouldn’t make the 2020 playoffs.

 

After much thought and consideration, I hereby declare the article linked in the first post as really dumb.

You "hereby declare?" Who are you? King George? Have you read it? Or are you basing your opinion on the piece based only on the title? In my eight years of writing, that's probably one of the best 10 things I've written. I wouldn't post crap here, and in fact, will likely post no more than one of my articles out of every 100.

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Solid article, especially good information about the WAR part and how you broke it down. I felt it was very easy to understand the way you explained it. But I also feel you are being a homer with how you view the Marlins will improve.

 

2019 season was a step back from 2018 season. We can expect some improvement, either way, you look at. I think they will get to around 68 + wins. The offense as of right now looks good and the starting pitching will continue to improve. The bullpen is what will need to improve as that was an issue last year.

Appreciate that - yeah I'm a bit of a homer, but nothing I wrote about there is impossible. Maybe all of it at the same time is improbable, at best, but stranger things have happened.

 

And let's face it, if the Marlins make the playoffs, wouldn't that just be something?

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