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1 minute ago, marlinsmaniac said:

Yeah my point exactly. We obviously were a team built around good (if overachieving) pitching, not offense. Any blowouts like that one skew the numbers plenty 

And if Mattingly had pulled Yamamoto earlier (after we got up to 9 runs) there's a chance we could have gotten back into that game ...

1 minute ago, Michael said:

And if Mattingly had pulled Yamamoto earlier (after we got up to 9 runs) there's a chance we could have gotten back into that game ...

This is true, but since the pitching depth was razor thin, he just basically said

If He Dies Ivan Drago GIF

1 minute ago, Photo-Realistic Billy said:

This is true, but since the pitching depth was razor thin, he just basically said

If He Dies Ivan Drago GIF

I was honestly super annoyed he didn't use a position player to pitch in that one. Everyone after Yams should have been position players ...

On 3/12/2021 at 9:28 PM, Photo-Realistic Billy said:

This is true, but it's almost never the case that 20 of the top pitchers go down simultaneously. While there's also no minor leagues. I mean, they literally brought in Indy ball pitchers. If their 20 pitcher "injuries" were spread across the whole calendar, we would have seen more of Castano, Neidert, Eveld types -- upper depth and guys with meaningful futures -- but the team needed a warm body, someone they could DFA in two weeks when the real guys got back. That put an unnatural strain on the team's depth.

But in general, we agree.

Fair points about if they were spread out. 😉

13 hours ago, cyoung said:

There were 3-4 games that got really out of hand (like 10-run losses).  Last I looked, and admittedly it has been a while, outside of those few games, the run differential was respectable.

Well there was definitely that 29-9 game! As I recall, most of the guys pitching in that one were not folks who would be in there under any normal circumstances.

On 3/12/2021 at 1:47 PM, Photo-Realistic Billy said:

I see folks on the Internet talk about the run differential, but so much of that comes from the COVID replacement relievers. The rotation and the top of the bullpen was actually quite competitive.

One trend that I have noticed is that the team has been shifting away from the homer prone pitchers. A big part of the bad run differential was the homers given up in garbage time. Replacing guys like Yamamoto and Vesia with Floro and Bass should help. I'm still concerned about Yimi. He was a bit homer prone back with the Dodgers, but he did not give up any until the NLDS last year so maybe he's figured something out. Other then that expect fewer homers allowed and the Marlins be be competitive in a higher percent of games.

On 3/12/2021 at 2:16 PM, mystikol87 said:

I recall the run differential being more than just the Covid replacement relievers. It was still a bit rough even if you take out the 20-run loss to the Braves. And most teams dealt with some Covid impact, not just the Marlins. But I am open to being wrong.

And I really like the off-season improvements.

It wasn't just the 20 run game vs the Braves. There were plenty of rough ones. 15-0 vs Washington. 11-0 vs Philly. 11-1 @ Atlanta just to name a few. just by getting rid of guys like Yams, Dugger, and Ureña you already have a better team.

Edited by FishFan95

On 3/12/2021 at 2:23 PM, SilverBullet said:

The thing about run differential, it's a measure of success but it's far from definitive. If your run differential is bad but you finish above the other teams in the division you still make the playoffs. So all that talk about it for the Marlins means nothing if the Phillies Mets and Nats finished below us.

The thing about run differential is that it would be better if teams had the same offense and same pitcher for every game. You can have 3 legit Cy Young candidates in your rotation and 2 guys who probably would get lit up in AA. You would have a good chance to win the majority of your games, but you are going to get really blown out 40% of the time. It makes the whole stat less useful as a benchmark for the quality of the team as a whole.

2 hours ago, FishFan95 said:

One trend that I have noticed is that the team has been shifting away from the homer prone pitchers. A big part of the bad run differential was the homers given up in garbage time. Replacing guys like Yamamoto and Vesia with Floro and Bass should help. I'm still concerned about Yimi. He was a bit homer prone back with the Dodgers, but he did not give up any until the NLDS last year so maybe he's figured something out. Other then that expect fewer homers allowed and the Marlins be be competitive in a higher percent of games.

Yimi has been getting hit pretty hard this spring though 😞

Vesia gave up a grand slam yesterday too so I guess we win that trade? *sigh* I pour my heart and soul into my first article in five years about the guy and he makes me look bad 😭

5 hours ago, FishFan95 said:

It wasn't just the 20 run game vs the Braves. There were plenty of rough ones. 15-0 vs Washington. 11-0 vs Philly. 11-1 @ Atlanta just to name a few. just by getting rid of guys like Yams, Dugger, and Ureña you already have a better team.

Getting blown out isn’t a good thing. That it happened several times in a short season is an indicator that the team isn’t as good. Plus, if you take away each team’s 4 biggest blowouts, each team’s run differential would greatly improve, too. And every team gives some innings to guys like that. You can’t explain those games away like you’re trying to.

On 3/13/2021 at 7:38 PM, Michael said:

So many people forgot that we actually won that series against the Braves when they scored 29 that one game ...

Yeah this so much. This also goes along with what the media chooses to highlight. The 2020 Miami Marlins were a playoff team that nobody bothered to talk about. Yet when that blowout game happened that's the thing people, casual fans, were told was a big deal. It was one game and we won the series and were basically already in position to make the playoffs when it happened but it's like none of that other stuff was worth mentioning. I don't get it.

It's like if you were a straight A student and people only spoke about that one time you got a C on a test.

Your failures are known, your successes are not.

8 hours ago, mystikol87 said:

Getting blown out isn’t a good thing. That it happened several times in a short season is an indicator that the team isn’t as good. Plus, if you take away each team’s 4 biggest blowouts, each team’s run differential would greatly improve, too. And every team gives some innings to guys like that. You can’t explain those games away like you’re trying to.

This would be more true if the guys getting lit up were still on the team. The only guys still on the team that got hit around at all are Lopez and Rogers. I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt because Lopez was so dominant in his other starts and Rogers was apparently tipping his pitches in that start vs Philly.

Anyway, it would be kind of like expecting the '98 Marlins to have a decent pitching staff based on the stats from the previous year even though Fernandez was hurt and they got rid of Leiter and Brown. You cannot judge the current team based on performances from guys no longer here.

  • Author
8 hours ago, SilverBullet said:

Yeah this so much. This also goes along with what the media chooses to highlight. The 2020 Miami Marlins were a playoff team that nobody bothered to talk about. Yet when that blowout game happened that's the thing people, casual fans, were told was a big deal. It was one game and we won the series and were basically already in position to make the playoffs when it happened but it's like none of that other stuff was worth mentioning. I don't get it.

It's like if you were a straight A student and people only spoke about that one time you got a C on a test.

Your failures are known, your successes are not.

That reminds me of times in my life at different jobs when for months at a time I’m the top performer on the team I happen to be on, and I hear nothing, just subtle envy from coworkers and nothing from management, just “keep it up” and then maybe for a 2-4 weeks my performance goes down lower then average, and then I’m so quick to hear from management about how my numbers are going down and to work on it. 😂

Or at another job with a crazy attendance policy, so I’m on time 364 days but that one day I clock in 4 minutes late because the street was practically blocked, but still I get a write up. 😂

 

Or another job, which I was moving around all day on my feet and after some hours I felt physically exhausted and had to take a breather for a couple of minutes, and no more than 30 seconds later I hear coworkers talking loudly “he’s over there slacking.” And the only reason I was so tired was because I had to work extra hard that day since most other people were just chilling and moving slowly but of course the management were friends with them so nobody said anything to them. 😂

 

Sorry for my long rant, I just had some memories after reading your post.

 

But yes, I agree, especially with the Marlins, all that people will remember from the 2020 season is that blowout loss, well, I should say especially most Braves fans who you know will probably bring it up every single Marlins vs. Braves series in 2021.

 

 

 

So the Marlins scored 263 runs last season. That is just shy of 4.4 runs a game. So I took a look at the games where the team allowed 9 runs or more- since that would be about a 5+ run blowout on average. There were 11 games. Sure enough 10 of them were blowout loses plus that one 14-11 win in Buffalo early in the year. I compiled the pitchers stats to compare the numbers from the guys who left the team compared to the guys who are still here.

Not counting position players, 19 pitchers who are no longer on the team combined to surrender 100 runs in those games with an ERA of 12.94. That is nearly 1/3 of all runs given up in the season in just 11 games by pitchers no longer on the roster!

But, hey! The guys still on the roster got beat up too with an ERA of 11.96 in those 11 games. But they combined for a 2.39 ERA outside of those 11 where as the guys off the roster combined for a 4.23 ERA. If your ERA is 4.23 AFTER you exclude the rough outings then you don't deserve a roster spot. The guys still on the roster were young pitchers experiencing the growing pains from their first few years in the league. I would bet they would have a much better chance of rebounding then the collection of aging journeymen who were mostly picked up to fill roster spots during the Covid outbreak.

27 minutes ago, FishFan95 said:

So the Marlins scored 263 runs last season. That is just shy of 4.4 runs a game. So I took a look at the games where the team allowed 9 runs or more- since that would be about a 5+ run blowout on average. There were 11 games. Sure enough 10 of them were blowout loses plus that one 14-11 win in Buffalo early in the year. I compiled the pitchers stats to compare the numbers from the guys who left the team compared to the guys who are still here.

Not counting position players, 19 pitchers who are no longer on the team combined to surrender 100 runs in those games with an ERA of 12.94. That is nearly 1/3 of all runs given up in the season in just 11 games by pitchers no longer on the roster!

But, hey! The guys still on the roster got beat up too with an ERA of 11.96 in those 11 games. But they combined for a 2.39 ERA outside of those 11 where as the guys off the roster combined for a 4.23 ERA. If your ERA is 4.23 AFTER you exclude the rough outings then you don't deserve a roster spot. The guys still on the roster were young pitchers experiencing the growing pains from their first few years in the league. I would bet they would have a much better chance of rebounding then the collection of aging journeymen who were mostly picked up to fill roster spots during the Covid outbreak.

Accept Schitts Creek GIF by CBC

6 hours ago, FishFan95 said:

This would be more true if the guys getting lit up were still on the team. The only guys still on the team that got hit around at all are Lopez and Rogers. I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt because Lopez was so dominant in his other starts and Rogers was apparently tipping his pitches in that start vs Philly.

Anyway, it would be kind of like expecting the '98 Marlins to have a decent pitching staff based on the stats from the previous year even though Fernandez was hurt and they got rid of Leiter and Brown. You cannot judge the current team based on performances from guys no longer here.

We still have to ask who will take those innings that last year went to the other guys "that got hit around." The Marlins didn't add a bunch of pitchers just as good as the ones who stayed on the team. It's much harder to have 13 quality arms than it is to have 7 or 8.

25 minutes ago, mystikol87 said:

We still have to ask who will take those innings that last year went to the other guys "that got hit around." The Marlins didn't add a bunch of pitchers just as good as the ones who stayed on the team. It's much harder to have 13 quality arms than it is to have 7 or 8.

My gut tells me the Bass, Floro, Curtiss, Pop, Cambell, and Cimber will be better than the 6+ ERA from the guys we let go. Plus with more innings to the rookie starters and guys who missed games like Alcantara and Hernandez. Unless we have an injury epidemic, the pitching will be miles better.

1 hour ago, FishFan95 said:

My gut tells me the Bass, Floro, Curtiss, Pop, Cambell, and Cimber will be better than the 6+ ERA from the guys we let go. Plus with more innings to the rookie starters and guys who missed games like Alcantara and Hernandez. Unless we have an injury epidemic, the pitching will be miles better.

Notice I left out Detwiler. Let me be on record in saying that I do not have much confidence in Ross Detwiler. I hope that he does well, but I doubt it.

10 hours ago, FishFan95 said:

My gut tells me the Bass, Floro, Curtiss, Pop, Cambell, and Cimber will be better than the 6+ ERA from the guys we let go. Plus with more innings to the rookie starters and guys who missed games like Alcantara and Hernandez. Unless we have an injury epidemic, the pitching will be miles better.

I definitely think they’ve upgraded the pitching. I’m not arguing otherwise. I argued that you can’t easily dismiss the 2020 team’s run differential because they had a few blowouts. That said, you shared some interesting stats earlier from the digging you did. But of course you didn’t know that going in. And it’s not necessarily true of all similarly-situated teams. Anyhoo...

1 hour ago, mystikol87 said:

That said, you shared some interesting stats earlier from the digging you did. But of course you didn’t know that going in. And it’s not necessarily true of all similarly-situated teams.

Just say "ok I was wrong" next time.

Just to add on to the idea of depth mattering: With Pearson going down, Jordan Yamamoto (who, granted, is having a solid ST) has a much better shot at starting the season in the Mets rotation. I genuinely believe Yams is better than he showed in 2020, but... He's not an ideal member of any Opening Day rotation.

Just now, Photo-Realistic Billy said:

Just to add on to the idea of depth mattering: With Pearson going down, Jordan Yamamoto (who, granted, is having a solid ST) has a much better shot at starting the season in the Mets rotation. I genuinely believe Yams is better than he showed in 2020, but... He's not an ideal member of any Opening Day rotation.

Pearson isn't on the Mets, friend.

1 minute ago, Michael said:

Pearson isn't on the Mets, friend.

Blurg.

Just now, Photo-Realistic Billy said:

Blurg.

Blog*

2 minutes ago, Michael said:

Pearson isn't on the Mets, friend.

I was thinking Peterson. Major reading comprehension fail.

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