March 9, 20213 yr 1 hour ago, Das Texan said: Marlins offense or lack of it will be the thing that holds this team back. Any offensive upgrade should be fully vetted and considered. Any trade moving 2 of your pitching depth for a controllable piece or even a piece just entering their prime that offers a middle of the order type bat is needed. No 'scare' factor in that lineup at all. I'm don't care about a "scare" factor, just scoring runs. However, I agree that the offense is the weakest attribute of the team. And unfortunately I'm not overly optimistic on even 1 of the AA-and-higher prospects becoming a quality bat. That's not even to mention the 2-3 they'd need to really build a strong offense with the players we have. Lewin Diaz, Jesus Sanchez, Jazz Chisholm, Isan Diaz, Lewis Brinson, Magneuris Sierra, Monte Harrison, even if you want to toss Jorge Alfaro into the mix. I'm not too optimistic about those folks. Probably Lewin Diaz has the lowest floor? I'm excited about Bleday, I just view him as in a different group. Edited March 9, 20213 yr by mystikol87
March 9, 20213 yr 1 hour ago, mystikol87 said: I'm don't care about a "scare" factor, just scoring runs. However, I agree that the offense is the weakest attribute of the team. And unfortunately I'm not overly optimistic on even 1 of the AA-and-higher prospects becoming a quality bat. That's not even to mention the 2-3 they'd need to really build a strong offense with the players we have. Lewin Diaz, Jesus Sanchez, Jazz Chisholm, Isan Diaz, Lewis Brinson, Magneuris Sierra, Monte Harrison, even if you want to toss Jorge Alfaro into the mix. I'm not too optimistic about those folks. Probably Lewin Diaz has the lowest floor? I'm excited about Bleday, I just view him as in a different group. Bleday and possibly Chisholm are the only bats I'd really put in that possible it factor that you build an offense around. And 'scare' factor is mostly mental to other teams and especially pitchers. Winning teams have those. There is nobody on the Marlin roster that I'd say, oh fuck we have to be careful and not let x get up with men on 2nd and 3rd.
March 9, 20213 yr 2 hours ago, Das Texan said: Bleday and possibly Chisholm are the only bats I'd really put in that possible it factor that you build an offense around. And 'scare' factor is mostly mental to other teams and especially pitchers. Winning teams have those. There is nobody on the Marlin roster that I'd say, oh fuck we have to be careful and not let x get up with men on 2nd and 3rd. You'd just walk that guy then, you dummy.
March 12, 20213 yr 1 hour ago, taiwanmarlin said: Yeah, this is the question folks have to answer. How did this team, of all teams -- given the history and COVID outbreak -- just luck into a playoff spot? And if it wasn't just luck, how did they get worse going into 2021? I see folks on the Internet talk about the run differential, but so much of that comes from the COVID replacement relievers. The rotation and the top of the bullpen was actually quite competitive.
March 12, 20213 yr 2 minutes ago, Photo-Realistic Billy said: Yeah, this is the question folks have to answer. How did this team, of all teams -- given the history and COVID outbreak -- just luck into a playoff spot? And if it wasn't just luck, how did they get worse going into 2021? I see folks on the Internet talk about the run differential, but so much of that comes from the COVID replacement relievers. The rotation and the top of the bullpen was actually quite competitive. I think the biggest issue is how badly the rest of the non-Braves NL East underperformed. Not saying that can't happen again, but it does seem like the competition will be stronger in most of our games this season.
March 12, 20213 yr 17 minutes ago, Photo-Realistic Billy said: Yeah, this is the question folks have to answer. How did this team, of all teams -- given the history and COVID outbreak -- just luck into a playoff spot? And if it wasn't just luck, how did they get worse going into 2021? I see folks on the Internet talk about the run differential, but so much of that comes from the COVID replacement relievers. The rotation and the top of the bullpen was actually quite competitive. It's amazing how ignorant people still are about our 2020 run but whatever, just gotta try and prove them wrong. Kinda feels like the Marlins could win the World Series and people will still find a way to create doubt over it.
March 12, 20213 yr 15 minutes ago, SongInTheAir said: I think the biggest issue is how badly the rest of the non-Braves NL East underperformed. Not saying that can't happen again, but it does seem like the competition will be stronger in most of our games this season. This is the most valid and logical reason why the Marlins will have a hard time making the playoffs in 2021 and if it happens it's perfectly fine. I've said this before but the weird thing is, the 2021 Marlins only have to be better than the 2019 Marlins to have a successful 2021 season. I don't call the 2020 season a fluke because that undermines everything they did accomplish and the way that they did it... but the 2020 was more like an outlier and it wouldn't be fair to compare the 2021 season directly to the 2020 season.
March 12, 20213 yr 33 minutes ago, SongInTheAir said: I think the biggest issue is how badly the rest of the non-Braves NL East underperformed. Not saying that can't happen again, but it does seem like the competition will be stronger in most of our games this season. I've been hearing this division will be the Best in Baseball for years, YEARS, and it's been lots of bluster and no bang. I think folks criminally underrate the value of a strong farm system in a 162 game season, and really only the Braves (lately) have had a good system and lo' and behold, they've dominated the division! When the poo hits the fan, and DeGrom's velo boom turns into a cranky shoulder or something, they simply don't have the reinforcements to keep competitive. Edited March 12, 20213 yr by Photo-Realistic Billy
March 12, 20213 yr 27 minutes ago, Photo-Realistic Billy said: Yeah, this is the question folks have to answer. How did this team, of all teams -- given the history and COVID outbreak -- just luck into a playoff spot? And if it wasn't just luck, how did they get worse going into 2021? I see folks on the Internet talk about the run differential, but so much of that comes from the COVID replacement relievers. The rotation and the top of the bullpen was actually quite competitive. I recall the run differential being more than just the Covid replacement relievers. It was still a bit rough even if you take out the 20-run loss to the Braves. And most teams dealt with some Covid impact, not just the Marlins. But I am open to being wrong. And I really like the off-season improvements.
March 12, 20213 yr Just now, mystikol87 said: I recall the run differential being more than just the Covid replacement relievers. It was still a bit rough even if you take out the 20-run loss to the Braves. And most teams dealt with some Covid impact, not just the Marlins. But I am open to being wrong. And I really like the off-season improvements. The rotation was solid, and when you look at the worst ERAs on the team (among those who finished 10 innings), only Urena and Stanek were guys that were originally part of the plans heading into the season. But Kintzler, Box, Yimi, Bleier, and Hoyt were nails pretty much all season.
March 12, 20213 yr The thing about run differential, it's a measure of success but it's far from definitive. If your run differential is bad but you finish above the other teams in the division you still make the playoffs. So all that talk about it for the Marlins means nothing if the Phillies Mets and Nats finished below us.
March 12, 20213 yr Run differential is only a valuable statistic in very long term samples, and even then it starts to lose value because the team will have different players on it. Outside of some enormous outliers like "that team has a +150 run differential but still lost 100 games" it really isn't something worth looking at as a predictive stat.
March 13, 20213 yr 3 hours ago, SongInTheAir said: Run differential is only a valuable statistic in very long term samples, and even then it starts to lose value because the team will have different players on it. Outside of some enormous outliers like "that team has a +150 run differential but still lost 100 games" it really isn't something worth looking at as a predictive stat. Exactly. Saw someone on Twitter say the Marlins were awful in 2020 because of their run differential... I'd like to know the run differentials of all the teams that didn't make the playoffs and then ask those teams and their fans if they'd trade their run differential for a playoff spot.
March 13, 20213 yr 3 hours ago, SongInTheAir said: Run differential is only a valuable statistic in very long term samples, and even then it starts to lose value because the team will have different players on it. Outside of some enormous outliers like "that team has a +150 run differential but still lost 100 games" it really isn't something worth looking at as a predictive stat. I don’t see it that way. And I think the ELO models also weigh it heavily.
March 13, 20213 yr 5 hours ago, Photo-Realistic Billy said: The rotation was solid, and when you look at the worst ERAs on the team (among those who finished 10 innings), only Urena and Stanek were guys that were originally part of the plans heading into the season. But Kintzler, Box, Yimi, Bleier, and Hoyt were nails pretty much all season. Yes, but every team has injuries over a full year. You don’t just get to roll with your top 5 starters and top 5 relievers (since you mentioned 5 relievers). What’s the average number of starters and relievers a team uses? I would imagine 8+ starters, 10++ relievers?
March 13, 20213 yr 1 hour ago, mystikol87 said: Yes, but every team has injuries over a full year. You don’t just get to roll with your top 5 starters and top 5 relievers (since you mentioned 5 relievers). What’s the average number of starters and relievers a team uses? I would imagine 8+ starters, 10++ relievers? I think we agree. But it's the Internet, so we might as well argue.
March 13, 20213 yr 1 hour ago, mystikol87 said: Yes, but every team has injuries over a full year. You don’t just get to roll with your top 5 starters and top 5 relievers (since you mentioned 5 relievers). What’s the average number of starters and relievers a team uses? I would imagine 8+ starters, 10++ relievers? This is true, but it's almost never the case that 20 of the top pitchers go down simultaneously. While there's also no minor leagues. I mean, they literally brought in Indy ball pitchers. If their 20 pitcher "injuries" were spread across the whole calendar, we would have seen more of Castano, Neidert, Eveld types -- upper depth and guys with meaningful futures -- but the team needed a warm body, someone they could DFA in two weeks when the real guys got back. That put an unnatural strain on the team's depth. But in general, we agree.
March 13, 20213 yr On 3/12/2021 at 1:47 PM, Photo-Realistic Billy said: Yeah, this is the question folks have to answer. How did this team, of all teams -- given the history and COVID outbreak -- just luck into a playoff spot? And if it wasn't just luck, how did they get worse going into 2021? I see folks on the Internet talk about the run differential, but so much of that comes from the COVID replacement relievers. The rotation and the top of the bullpen was actually quite competitive. There were 3-4 games that got really out of hand (like 10-run losses). Last I looked, and admittedly it has been a while, outside of those few games, the run differential was respectable.
March 13, 20213 yr Just now, cyoung said: There were 3-4 games that got really out of hand (like 10-run losses). Last I looked, and admittedly it has been a while, outside of those few games, the run differential was respectable. And it seems that if I read the rest of the comments before replying, this has already been pointed out & discussed 😄
March 14, 20213 yr In a three game series, you win game one 2-0, game two 3-1, and lose game three 14-5. You have a -5 run differential but you won the series. If you did that every series or the season you’d have a .600+ winning percentage and a negative run differential. 4-5 blowouts will throw that number off big time unless you have a few blowouts in your favor as well. Not really something I’d put too much stock in.
March 14, 20213 yr Just now, marlinsmaniac said: In a three game series, you win game one 2-0, game two 3-1, and lose game three 14-5. You have a -5 run differential but you won the series. If you did that every series or the season you’d have a .600+ winning percentage and a negative run differential. 4-5 blowouts will throw that number off big time unless you have a few blowouts in your favor as well. Not really something I’d put too much stock in. So many people forgot that we actually won that series against the Braves when they scored 29 that one game ...
March 14, 20213 yr 1 minute ago, Michael said: So many people forgot that we actually won that series against the Braves when they scored 29 that one game ... Yeah my point exactly. We obviously were a team built around good (if overachieving) pitching, not offense. Any blowouts like that one skew the numbers plenty
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