Neither have any future here.  The sooner Nardi gets to take over the closer role the better.

We lost the trade.  Velez probably never make it, Guerrero struggling.  Comp pick total unknown.

Maybe Scott can net us an A- guy.  Sulser is as worthless as Nance.  DFA please.  No way they make the 40-man for Rule V.

9 hours ago, TheMarlinsProject said:

Neither have any future here.  The sooner Nardi gets to take over the closer role the better.

We lost the trade.  Velez probably never make it, Guerrero struggling.  Comp pick total unknown.

Maybe Scott can net us an A- guy.  Sulser is as worthless as Nance.  DFA please.  No way they make the 40-man for Rule V.

Scott has exceptional statcast data - except for the BB rate. They aren't going to get rid of him. He's solid and fine. They just need to get other relievers to put ahead of him on the depth chart and move him to not the 9th.

Nance has a xFIP of 3.03 and a 12+ K/9. He has options. He doesn't have the innings to get the full statcast treatment yet, but from what they are showing the spin rates are very high and he throws above average velocity. He likely survives and wins a last bullpen spot or is an inventory arm in AAA. I don't think he's going anywhere.

Sulser is probably gone though.

Also to note, Okert also has great statcast analytics, and Bleier is under contract, so the chances of Nardi sticking around as a 4th pen lefty are slim. He's probably also in AAA as an inventory arm unless they carry a lot of lefties. I like him though for who he is.

I'm anticipating this for the 40 man right now for pitching:

(6) Sandy, Pablo, Cabrera, Rogers, Garrett, Luzardo
(4) _____, Floro, _____, _____
(3) Scott, Bleier, Okert
--
(4) 40 Man RHP - Neidert, Nance, Sixto, Soriano
(3) 40 Man LHP - Nardi, Simpson, King*
=20
(IL - Meyer, Poteet, Bender... which would be really fucking nice as those blank lines sigh)

This is probably a Rule V right hander, I suspect they trade 1-2 of Cooper/Anderson/Berti/Wendle/Rojas and that nets another blank line right hander, and they'll sign someone to replace "Bass" (or could be Sulser if he has a strong ROS). This is pretty good if they do get some solid relievers.

*Maybe S. Reynolds instead. I'm only iffy on this spot. Practically doesn't matter though.

Scott definitely has some potential.  Give him an offseason working with Mel a bit and see what we get.  Aside from a fantastic nickname "Cole's Ulcer"  Sulser has been very underwhelming.  He'll LIKELY be gone.

1 hour ago, MarlinsLou said:

Scott has exceptional statcast data - except for the BB rate. They aren't going to get rid of him. He's solid and fine. They just need to get other relievers to put ahead of him on the depth chart and move him to not the 9th.

Nance has a xFIP of 3.03 and a 12+ K/9. He has options. He doesn't have the innings to get the full statcast treatment yet, but from what they are showing the spin rates are very high and he throws above average velocity. He likely survives and wins a last bullpen spot or is an inventory arm in AAA. I don't think he's going anywhere.

Sulser is probably gone though.

Also to note, Okert also has great statcast analytics, and Bleier is under contract, so the chances of Nardi sticking around as a 4th pen lefty are slim. He's probably also in AAA as an inventory arm unless they carry a lot of lefties. I like him though for who he is.

I'm anticipating this for the 40 man right now for pitching:

(6) Sandy, Pablo, Cabrera, Rogers, Garrett, Luzardo
(4) _____, Floro, _____, _____
(3) Scott, Bleier, Okert
--
(4) 40 Man RHP - Neidert, Nance, Sixto, Soriano
(3) 40 Man LHP - Nardi, Simpson, King*
=20
(IL - Meyer, Poteet, Bender... which would be really fucking nice as those blank lines sigh)

This is probably a Rule V right hander, I suspect they trade 1-2 of Cooper/Anderson/Berti/Wendle/Rojas and that nets another blank line right hander, and they'll sign someone to replace "Bass" (or could be Sulser if he has a strong ROS). This is pretty good if they do get some solid relievers.

*Maybe S. Reynolds instead. I'm only iffy on this spot. Practically doesn't matter though.

Remember guys like Meyer and Poteet have to be on your 40 man during the winter as there is no IL list to remove them from said 40 man during the winter.

So you can just put them on said 40 man that will be going down at least during the winter season.

Which makes more of these, why call up x and y and play them now in a lost season a bit more complex if they dont HAVE to be protected this year!

Way too many fans dont actually understand how 40 man rosters work.

Tom Nance is actually pretty good. Lots of swing and miss and I think he has the potential to be a strong bullpen arm. Tanner Scott is elite when he throws strikes. If he can work some more with Mel (or with just time/experience) to gain better control, he's Billy Wagner. Both guys should be on the team, Cole Sulser should not. 

32 minutes ago, SongInTheAir said:

Tom Nance is actually pretty good. Lots of swing and miss and I think he has the potential to be a strong bullpen arm. Tanner Scott is elite when he throws strikes. If he can work some more with Mel (or with just time/experience) to gain better control, he's Billy Wagner. Both guys should be on the team, Cole Sulser should not. 

Not as high on Nance's potential as I am Scott's but we can agree Sulser sucks at least. Until he goes to the Rays and becomes dominant anyway.

1 hour ago, Das Texan said:

Remember guys like Meyer and Poteet have to be on your 40 man during the winter as there is no IL list to remove them from said 40 man during the winter.

So you can just put them on said 40 man that will be going down at least during the winter season.

Which makes more of these, why call up x and y and play them now in a lost season a bit more complex if they dont HAVE to be protected this year!

Way too many fans dont actually understand how 40 man rosters work.

Yes fair. They can maneuver around this IMO. Like who is picking up King in the winter in the Rule V? They can also sign some FA after this period, etc. They can trade Anderson sooner rather than later if he is deemed to go, etc. They got some space to account for those two and Bender as a third IL

Generally point here is Scott/Nance are absolutely not moves right now. 

 

Also I'm really annoyed doing this as this would be an incredible staff for next year

Sandy (210 IP)
Pablo (160+ IP)
Rogers - > Meyer (270+IP R/L combo)
Luzardo - > Cabrera (270+IP R/L combo)
Garrett - > Poteet (250+IP R/L combo)
RHP - Bender, Nance
LHP - Scott, Okert, Bleier (50-65 IP for each 5 bullpen reliever here)

That's a full season of innings.

You could literally stack them as double SP for the 3-4-5 and have them go 3-5 IP each depending on who is throwing well/pitch counts/stress. It would be light's out, everyone is on good innings progressions, and stretched out. Bullpen is used 1-2 appearances per game in most occasions besides the Pablo day so matchups can be played. 

Thanks Tommy John. See ya in 2024 when we can add Eury and Eder to this animal. Maybe Sixto too!
 

6 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

Yes fair. They can maneuver around this IMO. Like who is picking up King in the winter in the Rule V? They can also sign some FA after this period, etc. They can trade Anderson sooner rather than later if he is deemed to go, etc. They got some space to account for those two and Bender as a third IL

Generally point here is Scott/Nance are absolutely not moves right now. 

 

Also I'm really annoyed doing this as this would be an incredible staff for next year

Sandy (210 IP)
Pablo (160+ IP)
Rogers - > Meyer (270+IP R/L combo)
Luzardo - > Cabrera (270+IP R/L combo)
Garrett - > Poteet (250+IP R/L combo)
RHP - Bender, Nance
LHP - Scott, Okert, Bleier (50-65 IP for each 5 bullpen reliever here)

That's a full season of innings.

You could literally stack them as double SP for the 3-4-5 and have them go 3-5 IP each depending on who is throwing well/pitch counts/stress. It would be light's out, everyone is on good innings progressions, and stretched out. Bullpen is used 1-2 appearances per game in most occasions besides the Pablo day so matchups can be played. 

Thanks Tommy John. See ya in 2024 when we can add Eury and Eder to this animal. Maybe Sixto too!
 

I still think they should strongly look into trading Pablo this off-season assuming he doesn't tank or get injured the remainder of the season. Cabrera and Lizard have done damn good, as has Brax for the most part. 

5 minutes ago, hovertical said:

I still think they should strongly look into trading Pablo this off-season assuming he doesn't tank or get injured the remainder of the season. Cabrera and Lizard have done damn good, as has Brax for the most part. 

If they trade him they *must* acquire other innings. And good ones.

Problem with everyone is Luzardo/Garret are high-stress pitch mixes so they probably cap 140-150 IP (which is fine, but you still gotta get to 1440 for the season somehow). Cabrera is off-injury and doesn't have his arm fully built up so it would be smart to cap him around 120-130 IP and hope to get him 150+ by 2024. Rogers can probably handle 160+ as more changeup dependent, but WTF is going on this year versus last. Can those innings be counted on? Can he performance wise get to 160?

This is 625+ innings left for the other 8 pitchers on the roster (Sandy is accounted for here!)....... and that's assuming Sandy/Rogers/Luzardo/Garrett/Cabrera all stay healthy.

Bleier/Scott/Okert/Nardi/Simpson are likely good for say 200. The lefty relievers are fine.

So where are these other 425 innings coming from sans Pablo internally? Floro, Neidert, Nance, Sixto, Eury, and Eder aren't throwing this next year at the MLB level. 

Basically, it's real real hard to trade Pablo right now, which is why the deadline criticism is hellaciously overblown. Pablo getting 160 of those 425 or so innings next year is a big deal. Sign a good reliever on top of this (or trade for one), and now Floro and gang above are around "200" for the year and that seems more mangeable. This is where we all point to Meyer/Poteet/Bender and say *fuck* as I think those dudes could easily have thrown close to 300 innings next year and there is the depth they now don't have.

So yea, trade Pablo for something, but they'll need to sign a Wacha/Quintana at minimum (how does this fit into budget? They will be more expensive?) and get many many innings out of them. Or trade for someone pretty legitimate. The SP surplus simply is gone right now due to the Meyer/Poteet injuries (and Hernandez sucking), and doesn't hit back until Meyer/Eury/Eder/Poteet maybe Sixto/Fulton are all MLB ready.

 

That being said, the deals I am thinking of in my head with a Pablo scenario are:

Pablo/Anderson/Sanchez --> Rosario and Nolan Jones. Something else probably too coming back. It makes sense for everyone assuming Marlins sign Rosario for 4-5 years which is likely do able.

Salas/Lewis/Fulton/Burdick/McCambley --- > Laureano and Blackburn. This one hurts but they have 2 and 3 years of control and we can live with this with presumably years of Rosario and Jones.

Blackburn replaces those Pablo innings, some real hope at SS and CF, and you got Jones to enter into future 1B/RF/DH mix with Berry. That's 4 new offensive names when we include Groshans and a lot of upside all over the place once you throw in Bleday and Fortes (each hitting RHP well) into the mix.

If Bruce will go to say $90m....... you can fit Edwin Diaz on this team for $15-16m a year. And that's the Jayson Werth signing over 4 years and the team is *really* set up. Everyone is happy here. SS, CF, power bat, innings, and closer.

 

LFG Kim? Some creativity please. And Bruce give her at least $90m you cheap POS. 

51 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

If they trade him they *must* acquire other innings. And good ones.

Problem with everyone is Luzardo/Garret are high-stress pitch mixes so they probably cap 140-150 IP (which is fine, but you still gotta get to 1440 for the season somehow). Cabrera is off-injury and doesn't have his arm fully built up so it would be smart to cap him around 120-130 IP and hope to get him 150+ by 2024. Rogers can probably handle 160+ as more changeup dependent, but WTF is going on this year versus last. Can those innings be counted on? Can he performance wise get to 160?

This is 625+ innings left for the other 8 pitchers on the roster (Sandy is accounted for here!)....... and that's assuming Sandy/Rogers/Luzardo/Garrett/Cabrera all stay healthy.

Bleier/Scott/Okert/Nardi/Simpson are likely good for say 200. The lefty relievers are fine.

So where are these other 425 innings coming from sans Pablo internally? Floro, Neidert, Nance, Sixto, Eury, and Eder aren't throwing this next year at the MLB level. 

Basically, it's real real hard to trade Pablo right now, which is why the deadline criticism is hellaciously overblown.

 

 

I still haven't seen anyone freaking out about him NOT being traded at the deadline. We were all upset that we have a GM who said she just sat around waiting for teams to contact her instead of her trying to target some people she wants that would be a win-win and going out and making those calls and MAYBE getting a move done that would help the team next season.  That's where all the criticism stems from. 

At some point they're going to need to acquire a legitimate PROVEN bat (or at least a blue chip prospect that is *almost* a sure thing) and the best piece we have that we can realistically trade is Pablo.  He's not anywhere near Sandy's level and he honestly doesn't have the same stuff that even Lizard or Cabrera have.  He's a good #3 guy or a #2 on an average rotation. I don't have anything against him and I'm well aware of the injury risks out there but....they clearly want to roll with kids to save some money so let the kids pitch. 

Move him for that missing piece and shell out some money for ANOTHER missing piece and then maybe they have a semi-competitive team going into next year - in the very least something that's at least semi-watchable.

 

22 minutes ago, hovertical said:

I still haven't seen anyone freaking out about him NOT being traded at the deadline. We were all upset that we have a GM who said she just sat around waiting for teams to contact her instead of her trying to target some people she wants that would be a win-win and going out and making those calls and MAYBE getting a move done that would help the team next season.  That's where all the criticism stems from. 

At some point they're going to need to acquire a legitimate PROVEN bat (or at least a blue chip prospect that is *almost* a sure thing) and the best piece we have that we can realistically trade is Pablo.  He's not anywhere near Sandy's level and he honestly doesn't have the same stuff that even Lizard or Cabrera have.  He's a good #3 guy or a #2 on an average rotation. I don't have anything against him and I'm well aware of the injury risks out there but....they clearly want to roll with kids to save some money so let the kids pitch. 

Move him for that missing piece and shell out some money for ANOTHER missing piece and then maybe they have a semi-competitive team going into next year - in the very least something that's at least semi-watchable.

 

You should see the venom of Marlins twitter, other message boards, etc. Frankly, it's stemmed from frustration of the season, but still over the top.

The best piece they can trade is also Eury. And he should be on the table for guys like Corbin Carroll, etc. I'd also say if it's deemed the Marlins can afford to trade a SP like Pablo, Luzardo and Cabrera are more valuable with more years of control and showing some really awesome upside someone will buy. 

They have a lot of options. They can certainly move one of the non-Sandy MLB SP if they get another SP in FA/trade, as well as Salas/Lewis/Fulton/etc. is a good trade package for something else. Throw in some money (Diaz? Nimmo? SS? Rizzo?).... and the team can be sneaky good on paper if they make the right 3-4 moves, with the move to real contender coming from Rogers turning back into 2021 (or even 75% of that), and Luzardo/Cabrera/Garret throwing 450 innings at this year's pace. Becomes interesting fast. They are in better shape than the doom and gloom around here, but Bruce/Kim have a big offseason to not believe health is the only thing that solves this. As they need much much more with these last 3-4 guys.

 

57 minutes ago, hovertical said:

At some point they're going to need to acquire a legitimate PROVEN bat (or at least a blue chip prospect that is *almost* a sure thing) and the best piece we have that we can realistically trade is Pablo.  He's not anywhere near Sandy's level and he honestly doesn't have the same stuff that even Lizard or Cabrera have.  He's a good #3 guy or a #2 on an average rotation. I don't have anything against him and I'm well aware of the injury risks out there but....they clearly want to roll with kids to save some money so let the kids pitch. 

 

Talk to Sherman then.

The cost to trade for said PROVEN bat is insane from a cost standpoint these days.  Too many organizations value control and lower costs, so its not like those are growing on trees available for trade wtihout some stupid insane massive cost.

The best way to acquire this is to spend money, either with a guy on a contract or on the free agency market.

Either way you have to increase the budget and the payroll.  If Sherman refuses to do that, there is literally NOTHING Ng can do to acquire said bat.

You can try til you are blue in the face doing this, but unless you are doing an old school prospect trade (which should happen more), the cost of that acquisition is just fucking INSANE, due to how teams value cost controlled ELITE pieces which is what you really want. 

23 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

You should see the venom of Marlins twitter, other message boards, etc. Frankly, it's stemmed from frustration of the season, but still over the top.

The best piece they can trade is also Eury. And he should be on the table for guys like Corbin Carroll, etc. I'd also say if it's deemed the Marlins can afford to trade a SP like Pablo, Luzardo and Cabrera are more valuable with more years of control and showing some really awesome upside someone will buy. 

They have a lot of options. They can certainly move one of the non-Sandy MLB SP if they get another SP in FA/trade, as well as Salas/Lewis/Fulton/etc. is a good trade package for something else. Throw in some money (Diaz? Nimmo? SS? Rizzo?).... and the team can be sneaky good on paper if they make the right 3-4 moves, with the move to real contender coming from Rogers turning back into 2021 (or even 75% of that), and Luzardo/Cabrera/Garret throwing 450 innings at this year's pace. Becomes interesting fast. They are in better shape than the doom and gloom around here, but Bruce/Kim have a big offseason to not believe health is the only thing that solves this. As they need much much more with these last 3-4 guys.

 

I have zero faith in Rogers at this point. He wasn't good second half of last season and was a total train wreck this season. We're mostly just remembering his hot start last year. He reminds me lot of Conley right now. I'm also much higher on both Cabrera and Luzardos stuff than I am on Pablo. Plus, I'd assume they be cheaper longer than Pablo would remain cheap? That's like ringing a dinner bell for Shermie.

1 hour ago, hovertical said:

I have zero faith in Rogers at this point. He wasn't good second half of last season and was a total train wreck this season. We're mostly just remembering his hot start last year. He reminds me lot of Conley right now. I'm also much higher on both Cabrera and Luzardos stuff than I am on Pablo. Plus, I'd assume they be cheaper longer than Pablo would remain cheap? That's like ringing a dinner bell for Shermie.

I agree I am higher on Cabrera and Luzardo if they can stay healthy. They are much cheaper than Pablo next 2 seasons. Not even close. Garrett too - CHEAP.

It's why I think you keep them all and see what happens. They don't have innings to trade with Meyer/Poteet/Bender out.

1 hour ago, Das Texan said:

Talk to Sherman then.

The cost to trade for said PROVEN bat is insane from a cost standpoint these days.  Too many organizations value control and lower costs, so its not like those are growing on trees available for trade wtihout some stupid insane massive cost.

The best way to acquire this is to spend money, either with a guy on a contract or on the free agency market.

Either way you have to increase the budget and the payroll.  If Sherman refuses to do that, there is literally NOTHING Ng can do to acquire said bat.

You can try til you are blue in the face doing this, but unless you are doing an old school prospect trade (which should happen more), the cost of that acquisition is just fucking INSANE, due to how teams value cost controlled ELITE pieces which is what you really want. 

eh... their SP is "cheap" if they trade it. They would get a lot for any of them except probably Rogers right now as he is who knows.

But yes - Ng can do *nothing* to get a superstar absent money or lucking into another Gallen/Jazz trade. Which I would go right back to Arizona and see what Eury/Carroll interest there is. Give them something else decent also. That dude is PERFECT for this team and Arizona has so many lefty OF already.

Eury and other reasonable names - > Carroll
Pablo/Anderson/Sanchez -> A. Rosario, N. Jones
Cooper/Rojas/Floro -> Cheaper relievers

You're at $68m bucks and they need 2-3 pitchers, 1 SP and relievers. Let's talk about E. Diaz and a # 4 veteran innings eater (1 year deal). Easy under $90m. 

And if Bruce wants to go for it, sign Rizzo outright and keep Floro from those trades above. $110m. Or "Milwaukee spending." Milwaukee.

And still have Salas/Lewis/Fulton to trade at the deadline.

All goes back to Bruce. Always.

17 hours ago, MarlinsLou said:

All goes back to Bruce. Always.

It's really sad this team seems don't need a real GM because no matter who's the GM he would have no money to spend.

1 hour ago, taiwanmarlin said:

It's really sad this team seems don't need a real GM because no matter who's the GM he would have no money to spend.

That's exactly why they need a real GM, one who can still build a team around money limitations.

2 hours ago, SilverBullet said:

That's exactly why they need a real GM, one who can still build a team around money limitations.

I don't think anyone can build around these payroll limitations. Not even the Rays can do it. In fact, the Rays may be a greater hell than Marlins fans as if *they* did go to $100-110m like *Milwaukee* they'd have a real chance. But their owners are fucking horrible too. They have even more of a reason to sign that last 1-2 star guy and go for it and don't do it with a legitimate top 6-10 team every year. Even Jeff would sign someone to try even if it's a blowup 2 years later. So yea, fuck the Rays owners also on behalf of baseball fans.

Nothing changes until payroll goes up. Mets are outspending by $130m, Phillies $80m, and Braves $60m. The Phillies are doubling things. It's insane.

You know how good this team will be on paper next year if they match Atlanta spending? That's keeping everyone (except Rojas) and adding Correa/Turner, Nimmo, and E. Diaz outright. With having Salas/gang to trade for a fourth major impact CC player. Like, Jeff would go for it with this team. He'd realize he has 6 SP, more coming, a star 2B, a collection of 10+ cheap and solid dudes, and drop the stars on top. With the understanding we can blow this shit up at the 2025 deadline if it doesn't work. Which is fine. 

Or let's sign Joey Gallo to play CF on a one year prove it deal because that matches defensive expectations and three true outcome only hitters?

The Rays have been doing their thang with payroll constraints for a looong time now. They seem to be able to actually develop and/or trade for BOTH hitters and pitchers that allow them to continually remain competitive in a very high priced division.  I would LOVE to magically be able to become an actual Rays fan but I stick with my teams for life.  It's kind of hilarious that the Marlins have two titles though and Rays have zilch. 

Rays always seem to find a way to just win with a low payroll no matter what.  I don't think we can rip on them just yet.

How did Nardi become the next closer already?

6 minutes ago, Erick said:

How did Nardi become the next closer already?

nard dog

50 minutes ago, SongInTheAir said:

nard dog

Nard B

3 hours ago, Erick said:

How did Nardi become the next closer already?

Because Don checked out at the all star break and cares even less than usual.

4 hours ago, Erick said:

How did Nardi become the next closer already?

By default. Everything else has failed. 

Every time we get tanner time or Cole slaw ful on the mound our lottery chances increase.