Good Stuff on the Fish

[Marlins2003]

Here's a couple of pieces on the Fish available today via NYMFansonly.com from theinsider.com. I'm posting them together, it's a lengthy read but worth the time.

 

2003-2004 Off-Season Review

By Mark Doring Publisher

Date: Feb 26, 2004

 

(edited out list of transactions - go to link to see the complete piece)

 

Off-Season Analysis How quickly the Florida Marlins went from a symbol of all of the things that are good about baseball; a bunch of youthful enthusiastic, never give up, all-out hustling kids who didn?t even realize they weren?t supposed to be where they were, being led by their grizzled old manager speaking words of simple wisdom, capturing the hearts of America by beating the New York Yankees in a World Series that going in could best be described as a David vs. Goliath battle. To the unfortunate reminder of all that is supposedly wrong with baseball; high player?s salaries, greedy owners, public funded stadium issues, apathetic fans, and the constant struggle of small market teams facing difficult choices and adverse fan reaction when it comes to retaining or losing their best players.

 

Welcome to the world of modern day baseball.

 

Fortunately for the Florida Marlins and their fan faithful we have a front office staff that not only understands these challenges but excels in working under the constraints of being a small market team. In the two years since owner Jeffrey Loria and his front office people have taken control of the Marlins organization they have proven time and time again that they will make personnel decisions that not only work within their budget constraints but also work to put a better team on the field. Some of their most notable successful moves include trading RHP Ryan Dempster for OF Juan Encarnacion, as well a deal that sent RHP Matt Clement for LHP Dontrelle Willis. The Marlins scouting department?s savvy have led them bringing in players that either underachieved or were undervalued by their previous team. A notable example of this is LHP Mark Redman who went 14-9 with a 3.59 ERA for the Marlins in 2003. Most importantly, the new ownership and front office has showed us that when they feel that they are contenders they will take the risk and spend the money to bring the kind of player necessary to win. Examples of this from last year are the signing of C Pudge Rodriquez and the mid-season trades for OF Jeff Conine and RP Ugueth Urbina.

 

Success on the field however has not alleviated the Marlins front office from once again having to make tough personnel decisions based purely on financial reasons. Here?s a closer examination of each major transaction that the Marlins made this off-season and a projection of the effect those moves will have on the field in the 2004 season.

 

Trading 1B Derrek Lee for 1B Hee Seop Choi and RHP prospect Mike Nannini

Lee, who hit .271 31 homers and 92 RBIs and won the Gold Glove for his tremendous defensive play in 2003, is set to become an unrestricted free agent after the 2004 season and based upon his play in 2003 was projected to earn in the neighborhood of 7.5 million for the 2004 season after arbitration (he ended up signing for 6.9). The Marlins knew that even if they could?ve kept Lee for the 2004 season that they wouldn?t be able to afford his contract demands for a long term deal after 2004. Thus, Lee was dealt now while the front office felt that they could get quality players. In return for Lee the Marlins received 23 year old 1B Hee Seop Choi and RHP prospect Mike Nannini.

 

Choi, a left-handed hitter was considered one of the top hitting prospects in baseball. Unfortunately, he went through a difficult and injury plagued rookie season. He hit .218 with 8 homers and 28 RBIs in 202 ABs. Despite his poor season, in which he spent almost a month on the DL for a concussion sustained after a fielding collision with pitcher Kerry Wood, scouts still feel that Choi can be a very good 1B at the major league level. Even with his large frame, 6?5 240, Choi is not known to have plus power. However, he does have tremendous plate discipline with a line drive swing and gap power that will translate into a lot of doubles. The downside is that he can be over-powered with inside pitches and has had trouble with left handed pitchers at the major league level. In the field, Choi is known as solid but not spectacular defensive player.

 

The Marlins are very happy to have the talented young Choi. Upon his acquisition, GM Admin Beinfest was quoted as saying, ?He?s not proven yet but we think he is going to be an outstanding player, an above-average first baseman.?

 

As an insurance policy for Choi the Marlins also signed veteran 1B Wil Cordero. Cordero is a free-swinging 13 year veteran that makes good contact with decent power. Last year for the Montreal Expos he hit .278 16 HRs and 71 RBIs in 431 ABs. Cordero?s approach at the plate is very aggressive and he will chase a bad pitch every now and again. But his discipline has improved over the years and he will be a valuable addition to the team. He can also play LF when called upon.

 

Choi is probably going to take a few years as he continues to develop into an everyday major league 1B. This year you can look for a platoon situation with Choi playing primarily against righties and Cordero going against lefties. The signing of Cordero will give the Marlins the patience necessary for developing a young player as well as keeping pressure off Choi as he will go through the typical ups and downs that every young player goes through. It will be impossible for the Marlins to duplicate Lee?s offensive production but I believe between these two players that you will see combined numbers that will not be too far off from what Lee produced as a Marlin. Look for a combined average of between .265-.270 25 HRs and 85 RBIs out of the 1B position. Unfortunately, there is no way the duo will be able to match Lee?s Gold Glove caliber defensive play.

 

The bottom line financially for this deal is that the Marlins will be paying approximately 1.1 million dollars this season for the two players combined as opposed to the 6.9 million it would?ve cost to keep Lee for the 2004 season. The front office did a marvelous job in bringing what will be similar offensive production for 20% of the cost while also receiving a player who is young and still has tremendous upside in Hee Seop Choi.

 

Trading OF Juan Encarnacion to the Los Angeles Dodgers for OF prospect Travis Ezi

Encarnacion had a very good year for the Marlins in 2003 batting .270 with 19 HRs and 94 RBIs. However, with the mid-season acquisition of Jeff Conine and the strong play of Miguel Cabrera in the World Series in RF made trading Encarnacion just as much of a personnel squeeze out as it was a financial decision. I would love to claim that trading Encarnacion was a pure salary dump but the newly acquired contract of Conine, at 4.5 million in 2004 is actually more than what Encarnacion got in his new deal with the Dodgers (2 years for 8 million). The front office is projecting that Cabrera will at least equal, if not better Encarnacion?s offensive production. In the field, Encarnacion was very solid defensively. Cabrera who is new to the position should not be expected to equal Encarnacion this year.

 

Trading LHP Mark Redman to the Oakland A?s for RP Mike Neu and LHP prospect Billy Murphy

Mark Redman came to the Florida Marlins in 2003 from the Detroit Tigers amid little fanfare as his career statistics prior to joining the Marlins was 23-30 with around a 4.30 ERA. The Marlins front office however knew that with Redman?s pitching style that he would have good success with the Florida Marlins, and they were right. Redman pitched to a 14-9 record in 2003 with 3.59 overall ERA while having a 2.88 ERA in home games. Redman?s ability to change speeds and consistently work the outside of the plate with off-speed pitches baited many opposing hitters to hit harmless fly outs to right-center field. His curveball and change-up combination gave opponents nightmares. During the months of June and July when Dontrelle was getting all of the attention, Redman was quietly carrying the Marlins staff going 6-2 in 11 starts while carrying a 2.99 ERA. Redman?s salary however was set to go from 2.15 million in 2003 to 3.5 million in 2004 and the Marlins simply had to make a decision between keeping either Redman, Pavano, or Penny. The decision was made a Redman was sent to the A?s for RP Mike Neu.

 

To replace Redman the Marlins signed a player that could end up being one of the best value additions in baseball this year in Darren Oliver. Oliver spent last year pitching for the Colorado Rockies and posted a very respectable 13-11 record with a 5.03 ERA. While the ERA number does appear very high, one must take into account the Coors Field factor when evaluating those stats.

 

Oliver?s pitching approach is almost identical to that of Redman. Both pitchers rely on off-speed stuff and location to get batters out. The humid air in Florida and the wide dimensions in right field will be a tremendous benefit to Oliver this season. The Marlins are really not honestly hoping for much more than Oliver than eating up innings and giving them somewhere around a .500 record, but don?t be surprised if Oliver turns in a career best performance in 2004 one similar to Redman?s 2003 season. Regardless of whether he pitches at that level, with only a $750,000 salary, he will be an asset.

 

RP Mike Neu is a quality middle reliever who played college ball for the University of Miami Hurricanes. He will provide much needed depth to what was considered a mediocre bullpen.

 

Not re-signing RP Ugueth Urbina or RP Braden Looper and signing RP Armando Benitez

As closers, Urbina and Looper both had the same problem of being erratic in closing situations by allowing too many runners to reach base through walks. The cause of their problem was different however. Urbina would lose control due to over-aggressiveness and Looper would lose control because of not being aggressive enough. Either way, neither of them performed well enough to make Marlins management believe that they were worth the estimated 4-5 million dollars a year it would take to keep one of them. The Marlins decided that they would take a chance on another historically erratic closer at the lower salary of 3.5 million in Armando Benitez.

 

Benitez has proven that he has the stuff to be a top notch closer and has occasionally performed as such. The problem is that he is said to be extremely temperamental and not able to handle criticism. This has been the source of his problems in the media induced pressure cooker atmosphere around his former teams the New York Mets and the New York Yankees. Perhaps the change of scenery to a place where the fan and media scrutiny isn?t as high will be good for Benitez. Whether it is or isn?t, Benitez will likely produce the same results as either Urbina or Looper would but with a lower salary.

 

Not re-signing C Pudge Rodriguez

One can make the argument that Pudge was the difference that took the Marlins from a good team to a World Series Champion. Pudge was clutch all season long which was evidenced by his .375 batting average with runners in scoring position, good for 3rd in the National League. In the playoffs and in the World Series Pudge came up with big play after big play both offensively and defensively. Based upon his play in 2003, Pudge without a doubt was worth re-signing to a similar contract as his 2003 deal (10 million for 1 season) on a one or two year basis. Pudge however wanted the security of a long term deal and demanded a 4 year contract. The Marlins did not believe that he would carry his value for all four years of the contract and made the decision to let their team leader depart.

 

While the decision to let Pudge go was very controversial the front office did have very sound statistical reasons to reach that conclusion. A closer look at Pudge?s statistics over the past 5 years reveals that Pudge?s career is in a steady decline.

 

ABs AVG HRs RBIs

1999 600 .332 35 113

2000 363 .347 27 83

2001 442 .308 25 65

2002 408 .314 19 60

2003 511 .297 16 85

 

Couple these sliding statistics with the fact that Pudge is a 33 year old catcher with a history of severe back injuries and no one can blame the Marlins for not wanting to give Pudge a big money, long term contract. He may have carried his value for a year, maybe two, but at some point during the contract his production would not be worth what he is being paid.

 

The final decision the front office had to make was whether to hold onto a 33 year old catcher for another 4 years and pay him an average 10 million dollars a year or hold the money and be able to re-sign their core of young pitchers. When looking at the situation from that perspective the answer was clear.

 

Catching prospect Ramon Castro will be asked to take over the majority of starts at the catcher spot and hit 7th in the lineup with backup Mike Redmond filling in part time.

 

Link to Above Article

 

------------

 

2004 Florida Marlins Organizational Report

By Mark Doring Publisher

Date: Feb 25, 2004

 

In 2003 the Florida Marlins were not only World Series Champions but they also received the award for Organization of the Year by major league baseball writers. For the World Championship run the Marlins not only called up their top hitting and pitching prospects but also traded several of their top prospects for veterans needed for the championship drive. Find out where the Marlins organization stands for the 2004 season and what criteria the front office uses in selecting their prospects.

 

2004 Florida Marlins Organizational Report

 

Heading into the 2003 season the Florida Marlins were considered to have one of the most talent rich farm systems in the majors. This was proven to be absolutely correct as Florida?s farm talent was a critical element to the Marlins playoff run and World Series Championship. The Marlins top hitting prospect going into 2003, 20 year old 3B Miguel Cabrera who started the season at Double A affiliate Carolina, was called up in late June to replace struggling LF Todd Hollandsworth. He immediately made his presence known by hitting a mammoth game winning HR in the 11th inning against the Tampa Bay D-Rays in his first major league game. Over the course of the season Cabrera showed exactly why he was considered one of the best hitting prospects in all of baseball and has drawn the lofty comparison of being another Albert Pujols by hitting for a .268 AVG. 12 HRs and 62 RBI in only 314 Abs. In the playoffs, the pressure of post-season play against three of the most storied franchises in baseball showed little effect on the young prodigy as he continued his strong play by hitting .265 with 4 HRs and 12 RBI in 68 ABs. The sky is the limit for this unbelievable talent.

 

However, Cabrera was not the only mid-season call-up that had an immeasurable impact on the Marlins Championship run. Their top pitching prospect Dontrelle Willis was called up out of Double A Carolina in mid-May in a moment of desperation when their staff ace AJ Burnett went down with a season ending elbow injury, RHP Josh Beckett went on the DL with a sprained elbow, and LHP Mark Redman was on the DL with a broken thumb. Willis came in and took the league by storm and captured the hearts of the Marlin faithful with his quirky style and youthful enthusiasm, not to mention some dominant pitching performances. The Marlins rode the D-Train through that rough period and came out a playoff contender on the strength of Willis? 11-2 record in his first 17 major league games. Dontrelle appeared to get tired as the season wore on which was attributed to over-use. However, he did pitch very well in the World Series against the Yankees throwing 3.2 scoreless innings in middle relief. The future is bright for Willis as he is considered one of the hardest workers on the team and has a strong hunger to succeed.

 

The Marlins farm system was used by the front office not only to bring in young players to fill in needs but also as a tool to trade for veterans with the talent and experience necessary for a championship run. The Marlins traded two of their top young pitching prospects, highly regarded RHP Denny Bautista and RHP Don Levinski, to Baltimore for LF Jeff Conine who was needed when 3B Mike Lowell went down with a broken hand. They also traded the overall #1 pick in the 2000 draft 1B Adrian Gonzalez and an athletic and highly regarded OF prospect Will Smith for closer Ugueth Urbina. While giving away such talented prospects was a high price to pay the end result of winning the 2003 World Series made it well worth it.

 

Heading into 2004 the Marlins minor league organization is without a doubt considerably thinner at the top than where it was as compared to a year ago. What is impressive however is that despite bringing up their top hitting and pitching prospects and trading away two pitching prospects (Bautista and Levinski) who on many teams would be considered the team?s top pitching prospect and a hitting prospect (Gonzalez) who is now considered the top hitting prospect for the Texas Rangers, the Marlins are still considered by most experts to be in the top half in all of baseball for overall strength of organizational prospects. This is a direct testament to the Marlins front office and scouting team led by GM Admin Beinfest, VP of Player Personnel Dan Jennings, Director of Scouting Stan Meek, and Director of International Relations Fred Ferreira. Their knowledge and hard work not only led to the 2003 World Series Championship but also to being named the 2003 Organization of the Year by major league baseball writers.

 

Organizational Philosophy

Being that the Marlins are considered a small to medium market team the front office is faced with many difficult decisions that are answered strictly on the basis of their financial aspects. The front office, when selecting their players for development, must minimize their risk while maximizing their potential value. Currently, the most popular and controversial approach towards small market franchise building is the Oakland A?s model which was analyzed in Michael Lewis? book ?Moneyball.?

 

While on the surface it appears that the Marlins should adhere to this popular model they clearly have not. The ?moneyball? approach to selecting prospects believes that teams can minimize their risk by drafting college players almost exclusively as opposed to high school players. The reason for this is that they believe that high school statistics are not an accurate way to project player potential and that the longer a player has been playing against better competition the more stats teams have which makes it easier to predict future performance. The ?moneyball? approach puts primary emphasis on on-base percentage and power while de-emphasizing speed and the ability to simply put the ball in play.

 

The Marlins organization has clearly not taken this approach. The Marlins have had tremendous amount of success developing high school talent especially when it comes to pitchers. In fact, each of the Marlins projected starters for 2004 (Beckett, Penny, Burnett, Willis, and Pavano) were drafted directly out of high school. The Marlins also used their first round selection in 2003 on a high school pitcher, Jeff Allison, who was considered one of the top 3 talents in the draft but slid down to the Marlins at the 16th pick due to signability concerns and the fact that many teams that follow the ?moneyball? approach will not select high school pitchers regardless of their talent. Since 1999 the Marlins have selected a high school player with their first overall choice and have in each draft selected more high school players over college players by a substantial difference. The Marlins also believe in producing runs through making things happen through the utilization of speed. Their players are taught to put the ball in play and make something happen rather than waiting idly for the 3-run homer.

 

Pitching is the number 1 priority of the Florida Marlins. This statement is echoed throughout the organization. The Marlins scouting team spends the majority of their time and efforts scouting and developing young arms. The Marlins organization is loaded with very talented but very inexperienced young pitching prospects. The scouting department has become famous in baseball circles for being able to find talented pitching prospects in the most obscure places of high school baseball. They have also been able to use their organizational academy in Venezuela to develop some of the best young arms in the minors. The academy has also been the source of some incredible young hitting talent, namely Miguel Cabrera. One of the organizations top priorities for the next year is further develop their scouting and to create another academy in the Dominican Republic, long known as a hotbed for young talent.

 

The Marlins next two organizational priorities after pitching are defense, particularly in the positions up the middle, and speed. The Marlins have several young and highly regarded prospects at the SS, 2B and CF positions.

 

When it comes to scouting hitting prospects the Marlins generally do not overly concern themselves with pure power numbers. They prefer to look for players with solid swing fundamentals and good strike zone judgment. The organization feels that these attributes are the hardest to develop if they can be developed at all. Power is easily developed both naturally through the maturation process and through strength and conditioning. Solid swing fundamentals and knowledge of the strike zone are usually either in a player or not.

 

2004 Organizational Outlook

While the Marlins may not have any immediate difference maker type prospects available for call-up in 2004 it does not mean that they do not have players who can be called up to be plugged in role type situations. Due to the actions taken by the front office in 2003 there are no ?can?t miss? immediate prospects. However, the Marlins do have an abundance of highly regarded players who are considered anywhere from 1-3 years off their estimated time of arrival. Most scouts agree that the Marlins farm system holds quite a few potential cant miss prospects. Unfortunately their age and inexperience bring too many variables at this point to warrant the label of future all-star. But if these young players continue on the path that they are currently on, the Marlins will once again be in a position like they were in 2003, where the farm system can be relied upon to bring in players that can not only contribute but be necessary components to a championship team.

 

Over the next 50 days, we here at Marlins Insider (soon to be fishpitch.com) will profile the top 50 prospects in the Marlins organization. We will profile one prospect daily starting with #50 and working our way down to #1 so that you can learn what young talents are the future of the Florida Marlins, what their strengths are, what they still need to work on to make the majors, what are their estimated time of arrivals, and what type of player they project to be. We hope you find it, like we hope you?ll find all of our content, both informative and entertaining. The staff at the Marlins Insider will always strive to bring you the best and most comprehensive content you can find on the web concerning the Florida Marlins Organization.

 

 

Link to Above Article

[catchoftheday]

hey good read marlins03 ... thanks, I actually learned a lot of things that i didnt know.

 

I found the whole analogy with pudge interesting, and the whole Encarnacion part as a good twist.

[jonnylons]

Great reads...should have put them on different threads though so we could dissect them more easily.

 

Loved the Fudge analysis. It seems in the evaluations of that situation, the most obvious - a statistical decline - has eluded everyone.

 

The organizational philosophy is dead on too. I love the way this franchise develops their talent - even though I am for the college pitchers myself because there is less risk involved. But then again, if you develop your talent correctly and seem to have very good evaluators in place, you can be successful and that seems to be what the Marlins have done.

[jonnylons]

Oh yeah, and Cordero/Choi situation. They got that dead on too because if you look at Cordero's numbers against lefty pitching - it is ridiculous. The Marlins scouts got it right in analyzing Choi as having a problem with hitting lefties. If this works out, we will have very good numbers from both Choi and Cordero and Choi will have something positive to build on. Cant wait...

[Marlins2003]

There is at least one factual error but it's minor - and someone correct me if I'm wrong - Conine isn't making $4mil+ in 2004, they reworked his contract (a second time) so that he makes $6 mil over two years and it's evenly split between 2004 and 2005.

[PBMarlin]

You are likely correct as I know the Herald has reported his salary as $3M for 2004

[TSwift25]

There is at least one factual error but it's minor - and someone correct me if I'm wrong - Conine isn't making $4mil+ in 2004, they reworked his contract (a second time) so that he makes $6 mil over two years and it's evenly split between 2004 and 2005.

yeah, when he was traded his salary was $4.5 million for next year, but he agreed to extend the deal by a year and make it a $6 mil deal...

[Fish Fry]

I can't believe they went through all that analysis on Choi and barely mentioned Mike Nannini. Nannini tore-up AA last year, and I know when he was in the Astros organization, they were VERY high on him (with some going so far as to say he was going to be another Roy Oswalt).

[DaGreatOne]

Nice articles.

 

I especially like the 2nd article which describes the organizations philosophy more throughly then anywhere I have read before. I like the fact that they draft hitters by their control with the bat and good judgement instead of purely power numbers only.

[dirtpeddler]

:notworthy Wonderful stuff,well thought out. I hope the other teams in the league don't adopt the same philosophy ,they can stay where they are. While the Fish go speeding by!!!

[catchoftheday]

I can't believe they went through all that analysis on Choi and barely mentioned Mike Nannini. Nannini tore-up AA last year, and I know when he was in the Astros organization, they were VERY high on him (with some going so far as to say he was going to be another Roy Oswalt).

i like the sound of that .... a lot.

 

 

 

Nannini and Allison for 05 .... ohhhhh ohhhh

:notworthy

[KJC]

catchoftheday,

 

Nannini worthy of a rotation spot on our team with the incredible depth in the majors and minors?

 

i can name a few pitchers ahead of him in our system in terms of upside...

[Marlins2003]

Nannini and Allison for 05 .... ohhhhh ohhhh

:notworthy

I can't speak to Nannini but Allison probably won't have a real shot at making the Marlins' roster until 2006 at the earliest.

[Fish Fry]

Nannini worthy of a rotation spot on our team with the incredible depth in the majors and minors?

 

i can name a few pitchers ahead of him in our system in terms of upside...

 

Incredible depth? In the Marlins minor league system? Maybe at this time in '03, but not now.

 

Other than Allison (who still has yet to play an entire season), who? Nannini is the only legit guy who's had great success at AA or better.

[KJC]

Allison is #1

Yorman Bazardo #2

Scott Olsen #3

 

then we have a bit of a dropoff

 

we get people like Hutchinson and Holdzkom who most likely will be relievers if they make it to the show.

 

just my opinion. Nannini is definately not on the level of Olsen Bazardo and Allison...

[castillo1]

great articles alot of great points are in it thanks

[JMLinkinPark]

The Marlins Minor Leagues are one of the best from A Ball and downward. and some AA to.

[Fish Fry]

Allison is #1

Yorman Bazardo #2

Scott Olsen #3

 

then we have a bit of a dropoff

 

we get people like Hutchinson and Holdzkom who most likely will be relievers if they make it to the show.

 

just my opinion. Nannini is definately not on the level of Olsen Bazardo and Allison...

I can't really comment on Allison, and I agree that Olsen has a lot of upside; but I don't see how you can put Bazardo ahead of Nannini. Bazardo's K/9 rate sucks. That guy will be lucky to make it out of AA without getting shelled.

[KJC]

i guess the fact that he was 18 years old has nothing to do with that :whistle

 

he throws high 90s K's will come...

[Fish Fry]

The Marlins Minor Leagues are one of the best from A Ball and downward. and some AA to.

 

It really doesn't matter what happens at A ball and lower. A prospect isn't truly a prospect until he succeeds at AA. Having a deep organization at A ball and lower (which I don't know if I necessarily agree with that assessment either), is like saying you came in 4th in an event in the Olympics. Either way, you got nothing.

[Fish Fry]

i guess the fact that he was 18 years old has nothing to do with that

 

he throws high 90s K's will come...

 

He's at low A-ball. Any legit top prospect ought to be 18 or 19 at that level. K's don't come, K's should be there already when he's facing his peers. I could understand if he was 18 and at AA, but not low A. He may throw high 90s, but obviously either 1. his ball has no movement or 2. his mechanics are too "clean" and he doesn't hide the ball well. If the problem is #2, then he can be fixed - otherwise the guy needs to be moved to the bullpen.

[tigersfan1]

Loved the Fudge analysis. It seems in the evaluations of that situation, the most obvious - a statistical decline - has eluded everyone.

Where is this huge statistical decline that the writer speaks of? Evaluating players by average, HR and RBI is awful analysis. RBI is the worst stat because that's team dependent. Pudge hit .375 with RISP last season; he can't drive in runners who aren't on the bases for him. It's easy to point to a drop in stats when a player is injured (as a Ranger) and his drop in power numbers can be attributed to switching leagues, moving into a worse lineup and moving from one of the best hitters parks to one of the worst. He was actually on pace to equal his career average in HR until a late season swoon where he hit only 2 HR after July 15. His average also dropped in the final month because of a slump where he hit under .250. Scott Boras (not that I believe what he says) attributed that to playing catcher in the humid Florida heat that was exhausting to Pudge (He caught almost 140 games during the regular season.) Despite all these words, Pudge was still the best hitter on your team at Pro Player Stadium last season, posting a .909 OPS there and his .843 OPS was not that huge of a drop from his Texas numbers as the writer makes it seem. Win Shares rated him the second best catcher in the NL last season, only behind Javy Lopez and his career year. Obviously his numbers were not on par with some of the excellent seasons he had in Texas, but there wasn't as huge of a drop off as the writer of this article makes it seem. He is also 32, not 33.

[catchoftheday]

Where is this huge statistical decline that the writer speaks of? Evaluating players by average, HR and RBI is awful analysis. RBI is the worst stat because that's team dependent. Pudge hit .375 with RISP last season; he can't drive in runners who aren't on the bases for him. It's easy to point to a drop in stats when a player is injured (as a Ranger) and his drop in power numbers can be attributed to switching leagues, moving into a worse lineup and moving from one of the best hitters parks to one of the worst. He was actually on pace to equal his career average in HR until a late season swoon where he hit only 2 HR after July 15. His average also dropped in the final month because of a slump where he hit under .250. Scott Boras (not that I believe what he says) attributed that to playing catcher in the humid Florida heat that was exhausting to Pudge (He caught almost 140 games during the regular season.) Despite all these words, Pudge was still the best hitter on your team at Pro Player Stadium last season, posting a .909 OPS there and his .843 OPS was not that huge of a drop from his Texas numbers as the writer makes it seem. Win Shares rated him the second best catcher in the NL last season, only behind Javy Lopez and his career year. Obviously his numbers were not on par with some of the excellent seasons he had in Texas, but there wasn't as huge of a drop off as the writer of this article makes it seem. He is also 32, not 33.

oh c'mon now how can you even try to say that he didnt have people to drive in when he stepped up to bat

 

 

HELLO ....

 

Juan Pierre 361 OBS 204 hits 55 walks (best lead off in the GAME :notworthy )

 

 

Luis Castillo 381 OBS 187 hits 63 walks (best slap hitter in the GAME :notworthy )

 

if that aint enough i dont knwo what is ... and they would also steal a base or two to make pudges work easier.... basically he always had a man on scoring position when he stepped up to bat.... but those darn double plays

 

and you said he was moving to a worse lineup ... as if the tigers one is better?

 

 

learn the facts and than speak sonny boy

[catchoftheday]

Nannini and Allison for 05 .... ohhhhh ohhhh

yeah yeah yeah sorry ... i didnt think about it ... more like 06 for Allison (since afterall hes supposed to move up at beckett speed) ... im not sure about Nannini

[jonnylons]

Loved the Fudge analysis. It seems in the evaluations of that situation, the most obvious - a statistical decline - has eluded everyone.

Where is this huge statistical decline that the writer speaks of? Evaluating players by average, HR and RBI is awful analysis. RBI is the worst stat because that's team dependent. Pudge hit .375 with RISP last season; he can't drive in runners who aren't on the bases for him. It's easy to point to a drop in stats when a player is injured (as a Ranger) and his drop in power numbers can be attributed to switching leagues, moving into a worse lineup and moving from one of the best hitters parks to one of the worst. He was actually on pace to equal his career average in HR until a late season swoon where he hit only 2 HR after July 15. His average also dropped in the final month because of a slump where he hit under .250. Scott Boras (not that I believe what he says) attributed that to playing catcher in the humid Florida heat that was exhausting to Pudge (He caught almost 140 games during the regular season.) Despite all these words, Pudge was still the best hitter on your team at Pro Player Stadium last season, posting a .909 OPS there and his .843 OPS was not that huge of a drop from his Texas numbers as the writer makes it seem. Win Shares rated him the second best catcher in the NL last season, only behind Javy Lopez and his career year. Obviously his numbers were not on par with some of the excellent seasons he had in Texas, but there wasn't as huge of a drop off as the writer of this article makes it seem. He is also 32, not 33. First of all, like Catch stated, the Marlins gave Fudge plenty of opportunity to knock in runs. If Fudge didnt get it done, someone would have.

 

Also, consider this: Fudge hit in front of Lowell. Lowell had a career year, with 30+ HRs and 100+ RBI - he was the ONLY 3B in baseball to do that last season. And since you are a stat-head wannabe, swallow this: Fudge didnt have the highest OPS on the team. Lee (.888) and Lowell (.881) rate better. Oh, and just for giggles, Castro had an amazing OPS (.937). And yes, he only had 53 ABs, so I will hold that one til after the season.

 

Do you think Fudge is going to catch 140 games this year? If he couldnt do it with us, he certainly isnt going to do it with your team - which has a far inferior pitching staff. By the way, if you check with anyone who knows the situation, Fudge was not as responsible for the pitchers' success as some would make out. He really did very little but look out for himself.

 

Let's look at some stats though, since you want to evaluate this.

Before All Star Break:

.300 13 HR 59 RBI

After:

.294 3HR 26RBI

 

No matter how you cut it, Fudge's stats HAVE been in decline since '99 (according to the article above). Some of this could be attributed to injury, age, both - but that is the point. The Marlins were NOT going to pay $10M dollars to get at best the production they got from Fudge last season. More than likely, his production will continue to decline. We got a catcher (Castro) who could put up similar numbers right now for about 10% the cost. Thanks, but no thanks.