We don't have enough reliable starters to deal AJ. One of our reliable ones for the first half (Willis) is slipping out of the reliable role leaving us with a group of starters as follows if AJ is dealt away

 

Josh Beckett (injuries)

Brian Moehler (seems to get into jams often)

Dontrelle Willis (inconsistent in 2nd half)

Ismael Valdez (mediocre)

Jason Vargas (unproven)

 

Our 1 reliable (and I say that loosely) starter at this point is Brian Moehler. His record would be fantastic if not for lack of run support to start this season. How can we justify trading away A.J. Burnett. You can't trade from your weakness and expect to win anything. Granted A.J. has been inconsistent, but I'll take him over Ismael Valdez any day. Contract situtuation aside, it doesn't matter if he's a free agent after this season or not since we are in the playoff race.

 

The common argument to this will probably be, we can just trade for a starter in the AJ deal or in a subsequent deal. Whomever we get will most likely be a downgrade. Maybe not, maybe Admin B. can work something great and creative out but the chances are we will take a step down in starting pitching and that's something the 2005 Florida Marlins can not afford to do.

 

I see comments sometimes about the bulk of starters we have but when looking at it realistically we lack starters if anything. Thoughts?

I have to agree Admin. Our rotation without AJ, loses alot of reliability.

I don't see this team going anywhere either way. We're mediocre in every facet of the game. I just want to use AJ to get rid of Lowell. Getting rid of Lowell's contract will be huge for us in the future in our attempts to resign our young stars. (Willis, Cabrera, Beckett). I'd also like to see us try and get rid of Lo Duca's contract, but I don't think that will happen.

100% with Admin

 

farmer_fran let me tell you something. Why would you want free up all this money now if these stars you mentioned are eligible for 3-5 years(exclude Beckett). There will always be money problems.

I'm still wishy-washy on Moehler too. He gives up too many hits and frankly, was pretty awful his last 4-5 starts until his solid outing in Arizona.

 

As for AJ, I have to preface by saying I've never been a big fan of his, so I'm biased to begin with. But, how long do you wait for a team to breakout? I mean, yes, this would weaken our starting staff a ton, but how realistically are we contenders anyway? These are the things you have to weigh and we have 8 more days to make this decision.

 

And, honestly, I don't know why we should expect AJ to be anymore than the .500 pitcher he's been thus far down the stretch. He's just so inconsistent. He has million dollar stuff, but he still reverts back to being a "thrower" way too much.

I'd also like to see us try and get rid of Lo Duca's contract, but I don't think that will happen.

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Wow talk about desperate, Lo duca is one of the most valuable players to this team. We could still be starting Mike redmond or the Traenor. Unless you are talking about restructuring his contract which i dont think he is interested in.

100% with Admin

 

farmer_fran let me tell you something. Why would you want free up all this money now if these stars you mentioned are eligible for 3-5 years(exclude Beckett). There will always be money problems.

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They're already talking with Willis about locking him up long term. Both Willis and Cabrera will be due huge raises through arbitration in the upcoming years anyway, so we need to free up money or we won't even be able to pay them. This team hasn't shown any signs of going on a run all season, and it's already too late to try to fix this team through trades (not that the Baltimore trade would have helped us anyway), so we might as well help our future by getting rid of Lowell and getting some prospects out of AJ.

 

We have some valuable pieces on this team that people would love to have. I say we cash in on it now, because we may never have an opportunity like this again.

I agree with Admin that if we're going to go anywhere this year, AJ is going to have to be around to make it happen.

 

Leiter, Moehler, Valdez; they are all really the same guy, just some were more lucky than others in the first half. None make a game look "easy" and it seems that every 1-2 count runs full...tough on the bullpen.

 

Had Willis shown any form of maturity (he always gets excited pitching in California and against the Cubs), I'd say that maybe he can be leaned on a little heavier, but it seems that even with all that's gone on injury wise, Beckett is still our ace, and Burnett and Willis are fighting it out for #2.

 

With all that taken into account, and knowing that our biggest problem lately has been pitching (and also knowing that we have two very good set-up men rehabbing in Jupiter), it baffles my mind why we'd actually look to give up the best starting pitcher available and still say with a straight face that we're 100% in it. The justification of moving Lowell's contract made sense 2 weeks ago, but he's begun to swing the bat well, and by all indications, we'd have to pay at least some of his contract to play elsewhere.

 

And to everyone who think that this is just the first domino to fall in a rapid overhaul that makes us better, there is no Barry Zito or Adam Dunn deal waiting...

? I'd also like to see us try and get rid of Lo Duca's contract, but I don't think that will happen.

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Wow talk about desperate, Lo duca is one of the most valuable players to this team. We could still be starting Mike redmond or the Traenor. Unless you are talking about restructuring his contract which i dont think he is interested in.

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Lo Duca is a singles hitter, who provides average, at best, defense. That is not worth a 3-year $18 million contract. He is one of the better options in the league at catcher, but not enough of an improvement over most catchers in the league to justify his contract.

As much as I have been back and forth on this for the futurue it probably is best if we can get rid of Lowell. Sure he has played a little better of late, but saving 18 million on him would be hugen like Fran said. We have good/cheap replacements for him. Plus whoever stepped into LF to would more than likely outproduce Mikey so I don't really see us dropping off that much in that category.

 

As for AJ. The thing is he has been just as unreliable as anyone on this staff. He is gone next year. I would love for us to sign him but its not going to happen. I still hate the deal, but he needs to be traded. I wish we would get someone better than Redman to replace him though. Do I think this team can win it with Lowell and AJ? I have my doubts. Without them...the same doubts but I really don't think this team gets that much worse if they are gone.

I don't know. Sure A.J. is inconsistent, but let us not forget that he's 2 years removed from TJ surgery and still complains about elbow tightness from time to time. I agree with Admin that if A.J. is dealt away we are looking much worse at the starting 5 than we were at the beginning of the season, but lets not kid ourselves and think that A.J. is the most reliable starter on this staff.

 

 

Given the right trade, we can get a #2 or #3 eventually that might help us and I'm not going to worry about losing A.J. totally just yet.

it all depends if the FO thinks we have a shot. I believe we need to come back home with 5.5 games behind, 6.5 or 7.5 games may trigger trades to rebuild for next year.

If it netted us a guy like a Bronson Arroyo, or maybe a Lohse or one of the Toronto starters rumored a while back, I'd feel a little better. Mark Redman would be a short stopgap only, as he's looking for more money too. And don't even bring up Ponson. But Hayden Penn doesn't make much sense to me other than to build up trade pieces. We've got plenty of pitching prospects.

Trading AJ would weaken the staff, but if we got rid of Lowell's contract and weak hitting (and don't try to get me excited about a few weeks of hitting when he screwed the pooch for three months) we could shore up several areas in a trade. The overall effect might be a stronger team. I don't think that Orioles trade was going to do that even if they turned around and made another move for Redman after that.

The bottom line is simple. If the Marlins trade AJ, we lose our minimal shot to enter the playoffs. We've gained 1.5 games on two spots since I started tracking the race daily. If that's not a move in the right direction, I don't know what is. We ran into a team that hits .296 against lefties and the Marlins were jinxed anyway by Moneyball. Let's wait and see how we fare the rest of the series and against the Pirates at home.

 

If we trade AJ now, like Admin said, we lose our rock. Even if you patch in the 5 best options we'd have, we have someone who notoriously falls off after the break (Trelle), someone who can't stay healthy (Becks), a pitcher who has already showed signs of slowing (Moehler), and two rookies who have worlds of promise but are still two rookies (Olsen and Vargas). That's not a playoff rotation, folks.

Who's to say we didn't then trade for another starter? Face it, we need to get rid of Lowell's contract. We are a last place team with the current group. Time to shake things up.

Who's to say we didn't then trade for another starter? Face it, we need to get rid of Lowell's contract. We are a last place team with the current group. Time to shake things up.

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there are no starters on the market that are as good as Burnett or even close.

If, and that's a big IF, we trade AJ and don't receive a starter in return, i'm sure Olsen would be called back up.

The bottom line is simple. If the Marlins trade AJ, we lose our minimal shot to enter the playoffs. We've gained 1.5 games on two spots since I started tracking the race daily. If that's not a move in the right direction, I don't know what is. We ran into a team that hits .296 against lefties and the Marlins were jinxed anyway by Moneyball. Let's wait and see how we fare the rest of the series and against the Pirates at home.

 

If we trade AJ now, like Admin said, we lose our rock. Even if you patch in the 5 best options we'd have, we have someone who notoriously falls off after the break (Trelle), someone who can't stay healthy (Becks), a pitcher who has already showed signs of slowing (Moehler), and two rookies who have worlds of promise but are still two rookies (Olsen and Vargas). That's not a playoff rotation, folks.

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not disagreeing with you, but we are in last place in the NL East. I think the FO is thinking we still have a shot (at least today) and won't trade AJ unless they are getting something in return that will help us this year.

 

If we slip to 6.5 or 7 games behind, then I will think they will turn into selling any piece that will improve the team next year.

I am starting to think that we are entering a period in which maybe the numbers of dominant starters in this league are going down. There aren't that many guys out there right now that a manager knows will be lights out. The only one right now that I know of is entering the twilight of his career in Roger Clemens. The other could be argued to be Mark Prior but he still has a few more seasons to get into the Clemens category. I saw the Nats game in person last night and it looked like Roger was pitching to little leaguers. I strongly urge anyone to go out and see Roger pitch, its well worth the money.

 

Is this a shift in training in the minors or is it the hitters are just seeing the ball better? I don't think that anyone really knows.

 

I agree 100% with Admin that WHEN we trade AJ it is going to leave the team with a mediocre pitching staff. But are we really going to be that much different than most other teams out there.

I've always maintained acquiring a starter is more important to this team than acquiring a reliever and that it was the one position where we lacked good depth.

 

However I'm not sure there aren't ways to strengthen the starting pitching by moving A.J. It should also be pointed out that A.J. has not been reliable recently. Since mid-June his ERA has jumped and in the past month it's over 6 earned runs per nine innings.

 

I know Admin (and others) have always maintained that we worry about next year next year, but by that time we will be without one of our best tradable assets (Burnett) and being forced into looking the depths of the weak free agent ranks. Or else rely on handing over 3 spots of the rotation over to rookies. It might be to the Marlins' benefit this year and next year to rectify that situation right now.

I still say we should offer AJ straight up for Arroyo and Wade Miller. That would leave them with a rotation of Schilling, Burnett, Clement, Wells, and Wakefield, which is still really good.

Trust in Josh Beckett....Hes gonna have a monster second half and show that the 03 playoffs were no fluke.

I am starting to think that we are entering a period in which maybe the numbers of dominant starters in this league are going down. There aren't that many guys out there right now that a manager knows will be lights out. The only one right now that I know of is entering the twilight of his career in Roger Clemens. The other could be argued to be Mark Prior but he still has a few more seasons to get into the Clemens category. I saw the Nats game in person last night and it looked like Roger was pitching to little leaguers. I strongly urge anyone to go out and see Roger pitch, its well worth the money.

Pedro still has it, but that's my opinion (and the opinion of the NL).

Trust in Josh Beckett....Hes gonna have a monster second half and show that the 03 playoffs were no fluke.

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If he can stay healthy finally.