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Mike Lowell Projection for 2006


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It sickens me to be posting this article in the MLB forum and not the main Marlins forum.

 

When the dust settles on the Marlins' fire sale, plenty of fantasy baseball sleepers will arise. Mike Jacobs, Josh Willingham, and Scott Olsen will all see significant playing time in 2006 and can impact your league. We also have to consider the players leaving Florida and their potential for '06. For example, plenty of baseball writers seem to think Mike Lowell will bounce back near career levels as a member of the Red Sox.

 

Take Eric Karabell:

 

"As for Mike Lowell, most fantasy owners are going to forget about him, and that's a mistake."

 

Actually, the ones who remember him will be making the biggest mistake.

 

"One of the busts of 2005, Lowell inexplicably stopped hitting for power and average."

 

Exactly. Not a good sign.

 

"Is he done at age 31? It's not likely. Lowell has already begun planning for 2006 and is a great bounce-back candidate."

 

Really, he's not. Even if he does have a plan.

 

"The Gold Glover will hit low in Boston's order and should be a good bet to get back to his 90 RBI totals of the past."

 

I already bet a friend that Lowell won't hit 20 HR in '06. I'd take the 90 RBI bet with Karabell.

 

"Fantasy owners who only look at 2005 numbers will miss a sleeper here."

 

How many times can you say the same thing? Allow me to formulate a projection.

 

Here's where I had Lowell coming in before the trade was announced:

 

AB H AVG HR RBI R SB

478 115 0.241 11 57 59 3

 

Let's crack open Lowell's stats a bit. When was the last time he hit more than two home runs in a month? July 2004. This is more than just a slump. It's a permanent decline. Lowell has never had above average control of the strike zone, and it caught up to him at age 31.

 

How about park effects? Lowell's a right-handed hitter, and Dolphins Stadium suppresses home runs by 22% for righties. So I guess his 5 longballs at home should have been 6 this year. Wow, we're up to 9 on the year. Fenway's a good place for righties to go deep - he should receive a 13% boost there. That should make for a good 7 HR at home. With a power surge, Lowell might muster 11 or 12 HR in 2006.

 

Aside from July of '05, Lowell didn't give any sign that he can hit better than .250 anymore. Again, he lost all control of the strike zone (.298 OBP). And is Boston really going to give him 500 ABs with Kevin Youkilis on the roster? I'd wager to say the Sox bring in some sort of formidable first baseman, so Youkilis won't spend much time there. I'm going to be generous and say Lowell gets 448 at-bats in '06.

 

Joe Crede will hit 25 HR in 2006. Mike Lowell will be lucky to hit half that many. Final Lowell projection:

 

AB H AVG HR RBI R SB

448 111 0.248 11 59 60 3

 

To quote Bill Simmons:

 

"Worst-case scenario, Lowell replaces Kevin Millar as the team's 'right-handed slugger who used to hit for power right up to the year they started testing for steroids, I'm sure it's just a crazy coincidence' guy."

 

http://www.rotoauthority.com/2005/11/mike_lowell_bos.html

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If he stays in Boston, which I am still not positive he will...I'll take:

 

270, 25, 80, and Gold Glove Defense on the corner.

 

The Monster and Fenway in general should help him though, that is, if he is a Red Sock opening day.

 

and a hidden ball trick here and there.

 

Lowell should be a great fit in Boston

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Guest Moneyball

I really hope Mikey turns it around.

 

But I just don't see it. He was absolutely horrible last year. It seemed like everything he hit was to center or right field. He could no longer pull that pitch up and in.

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Friggin unbelievable.. The guy was an All-Star for 3 straight years... He has one bad season and everyone thinks he sucks... I'll bet he hits near .300 again and hits around 30 homeruns. The Green Monster will do wonders for Lowell....

 

I'm gonna love watching the Red Sox in 2006. I liked them a lot before, but with Beckett and Lowell now, I'll be watching very closely.

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I know it was never a public rumor, and I dont know if its ever been seriously discussed

on this board, but could it be that because of the tight checks on steroids, Lowell ceased the use of performance enhancement drugs, thus causing him to have the " off " year he had.

 

Some of you might think this is stupid, but you never know it may be true.

 

If it is true, there wont be any changes in his production in 06'.

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Friggin unbelievable.. The guy was an All-Star for 3 straight years... He has one bad season and everyone thinks he sucks... I'll bet he hits near .300 again and hits around 30 homeruns. The Green Monster will do wonders for Lowell....

 

 

 

He's been bad since July of 2004, so it's a bad year and a half.

 

And I'd bet you (or anyone else) that Lowell hits nowhere near 30 HR's. If he hits 20, I'll be pleasantly surprised.

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I know it was never a public rumor, and I dont know if its ever been seriously discussed

on this board, but could it be that because of the tight checks on steroids, Lowell ceased the use of performance enhancement drugs, thus causing him to have the " off " year he had.

 

Some of you might think this is stupid, but you never know it may be true.

 

If it is true, there wont be any changes in his production in 06'.

 

 

I've been saying that, and there have been some rumblings, but Lowell has been a model Marlin and I'm not going to trash him on his way out. Let the Red Sox fans worry about that.

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I know it was never a public rumor, and I dont know if its ever been seriously discussed

on this board, but could it be that because of the tight checks on steroids, Lowell ceased the use of performance enhancement drugs, thus causing him to have the " off " year he had.

 

Some of you might think this is stupid, but you never know it may be true.

 

If it is true, there wont be any changes in his production in 06'.

 

 

I've been saying that, and there have been some rumblings, but Lowell has been a model Marlin and I'm not going to trash him on his way out. Let the Red Sox fans worry about that.

 

I agree, I rather leave it alone. It wouldn't do us or Mikey any good

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bats 270 with 18 hr and 90 rbis. He will win the GG with the boston press (specially ESPN - gammons) behind him pumping it. He will get comeback player of the year.

 

He also will lead the AL in Doubles.

 

Boston will win the AL East over the yankees with toronto finishing second actually and yankees third, tampa fourth and O's last.

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If he stays in Boston, which I am still not positive he will...I'll take:

 

270, 25, 80, and Gold Glove Defense on the corner.

 

The Monster and Fenway in general should help him though, that is, if he is a Red Sock opening day.

 

now that he has to compete with Eric Chavez, I don't see him winning any more gold gloves

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The only reason he didn't win before was Scott Rolen, quite possibly the best third baseman defensively ever. Eric Chavez's name has never been mentioned with Brooks Robinson like Rolen's has. The award is Lowell's to lose.

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Lowell will be the worst offensive 3rd baseman in the AL next year. Going to Boston doesn't change that they still test for roids does it?

 

 

Unbelievable.

 

JUST THROW THE GUY UNDER THE BUS!

 

DING DING...............WE HAVE A WINNER!

.........and the winner of the most idiotic comment of the offseason goes to.................

 

FELO

 

"Please dick tell the boy what he has won"

 

"Why, Jim the boy has won an immodium tablet that is taken rectally for his extreme case of explosive diarhea of the mouth"

 

What an ignorant slut

 

Please watch what you say about one of the most classiest guys in MLB who happens to still bleed teal in my book.

 

 

p.s. Whatever happened to innocent until proven guilty

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