i never really bought into it but the 2007 season has made me a semi-believer. now players like hanley are just special and have been ammume to it and uggla hit 30 homers, jacobs has been hitting well lately and so forth. but if you look at the numbers you can see a drop off in some category. or as with pitchers nolasco, johnson and sanchez they had the worst slump of all..injury and a lost season. this i think all starts with a switch at management and the loss of perry hill...im not saying that fredi is the worst but his "nice guy" attitude and being a players manager doesnt seem to be the right fit for a young team that needs a kick in the a** everynow and then. does he deserve another year? of course...you cant judge on such a small sample size. this season i think the rest of the league made adjustments to our guys and they have not fully adapted and figured out another way to succeed. (example i can remember watching many games vs the nats and seeing their pitchers throw uggla sliders away over and over and have him swing and miss) when he can recognize that and drive the pitch the other way we can start seeing improvement. hopefully we can turn it around and make some key additions such as CF and C and a true veteran leader to guide this young ballclub.

 

I would like to stress that anyone who disagrees please dont get nasty with your comments...we are all adult and if you dont agree just say so..and here's to the 2008 Marlins..hopefully a near .500 season on a gradual process to the playoffs and maybe we can get that all ellusive stadium deal!!

Damn are we such a**holes in this forum that poor mdmarlinsfan7 is afraid of making a posting freely?

Our starting rotation has given up the most runs in all of baseball this year.

 

We can't being a good team with a make-shift rotation.

 

Hopefully next year that problem is solved.

Damn are we such a**holes in this forum that poor mdmarlinsfan7 is afraid of making a posting freely?

As a whole, yes, we are.

Damn are we such a**holes in this forum that poor mdmarlinsfan7 is afraid of making a posting freely?

As a whole, yes, we are.

 

Yep.

Its the beard!

It's not a "slump" it's poor management of innings pitched. A lot of people saw bad years coming for JJ and Anibal (almost certainly our top-2 starters) because they were approaching career highs in IP, were performing "above their head" and in the case of Anibal he more than DOUBLED his career high in IP, well beyond the "safe" 60 IP bump.

 

I don't know if that's what you were shooting for, but if you could see it coming a mile away, it's not a "slump." Same with guys like Uggla, we knew the average was going to drop big time.

 

I think for next year we have to expect Vanden Hurk to have an appointment with Dr. Andrews, probably Mitre as well, and we have to get used to a rotation that may be a collection of #4's until Sanchez is back in June, plus whatever Volstad and Gaby are allowed to contribute. I'd like to think next year's rotation will be more "stable" than what we had this season, and if we can get just league average output to go with our offense, we're in darn good shape.

I agree with that. Our offense is strong enough that if we have an average starting rotation we're still in good shape.

 

Add Bonds to the mix... put him in front of Miggy and watch Miggy hit 50 bombs.

I agree with that. Our offense is strong enough that if we have an average starting rotation we're still in good shape.

 

Add Bonds to the mix... put him in front of Miggy and watch Miggy hit 50 bombs.

what kind of salary is Bonds going to want? $12-15M I'd guess. I know it's pollyanna-ish but I'd rather take that dollar amount and put it towards a long term deal for Miggy or Hanley, or use it to get an established starting pitcher.

we could do both if we get a stadium deal finalized soon

 

if not bonds, we need to sign a solid starting pitcher.

Sophomore slump, it's been more of a meltdown.

 

And while we're casting around for all manner of reasons why, heaven forbid we should ever mention the woeful defense we've seen this year. The team played badly from the start of the year, and yes injuries certainly were a major cause of where we are, but just using last night's game as a prime example, eight freakin' unearned runs, Scott Olsen finally goes out there shows he still has it in him, his demons put aside and the team lays down behind him.

 

And it's been this way all season. I happen to agree basically that innings pitched would appear to be a big issue, but just as much so, if not more has been pitches per inning, and per consecutive inning, that took it's toll on a lot of young arms. Whether it was their fault - too many walks and long counts - or the defense giving opposing teams four, five, six outs an inning, the 30+ pitch innings were as much to blame for the Marlins DL parade as anything else.

 

In another thread there's this debate going on about Wiley vs Kranitz (re:Willis and the staff generally) but if you go back and research what Wiley was saying back in 2005, he was a proponent not coddling young pitchers and having them go out and throw 180-200 innings to build up arm strength. So be careful what you wish for.

 

To quote Mr. Wiley, ""You learn in the big leagues by being out there consistently," says Mark Wiley, the team's new pitching coach. "You learn the most, probably, when you have your first 200-plus-inning year.""

 

So I don't see how people can argue for Wiley's return (and against the 2006 MLB Pitching Coach of the Year) when Wiley's philosophy runs counter to what the same people are saying is the root cause of the problem.

 

I have my own belief, I make no claim that I am right, no words of declaration that what is really nothing more than a theory is absolute or fact, but I believe that a number of the young pitchers we see on the DL now had injuries they hid from their manager and coaches in 2006, in the belief that the off-season would give them the chance to get well and no one would ever know. But instead they came into camp still hurt, and in some cases only made matters worse for themselves by again refusing to acknowledge they were hurt until it became impossible for them to perform. I believe that they made their own personal choice to hide their injury and instead of a four week stint on the DL, sitting out because of tendonitis or whatever malady, rather they lied to anyone who asked and tried to mask the problem(s) with different pitches or mechanics and made matters worse, in some cases (figuratively) blowing out elbows trying to hide a sore shoulder.

 

And the product of that is what you see today.

 

I'd go one step further. I think Willis is doing the same thing. Whether it's his shoulder (my core belief) or his pitching hand that he hurt at first base, I do not believe he is 100% healthy. I have no knowledge any of that is true. I don't know if anyone saw DW throwing a warmup pitch in the dirt and then shaking his pitching hand (I read somewhere this morning he says it was a cramp), but I suspect he's another guy who thinks the right thing to do is go out there and try to help the team, a laudable endeavor, but if he is in fact ailing, perhaps it's misguided too.

 

This theory about 2006 and 2007 came after the whole Anibal Sanchez affair with him underperforming, being sent down, then finally admitting he was injured, ultimately undergoing surgery, and that the reason the Marlins FO handled it the way they did was to send a message to the rest of their young arms - the ones they are counting on for our future - that "if you're hurt, don't be a hero go tell someone!". If it takes you an extra six months or even a whole season to make it to the major leagues because you have to rest a tired arm or sore shoulder, better you do that and have a career in the bigs than fake it until you've blown out your arm and out of baseball. And for the record if anyone wants to go back into the 2005-2006 off-season archives I was a proponent of keeping most the young arms down for the year and essentially building a staff ala the Nationals in 2007. I don't know that the result would have been as exciting in August and early Sept of 2006, but I suspect we'd have most if not all those young arms healthy or at least healthier right now.

 

As a person who some here would brand an apologist for the FO I thought it was a mistake then and I still do. As Don Sutton said young pitchers (physically) mature at different ages, just because MLB is ready for you doesn't mean you're ready for MLB.

 

I think there's lots of blame to go around and it isn't just the manager or pitching coach or the front office, it's in some cases the players, it's their agents, it's the MLBPA as well, they are all at fault here.

 

And do I have to disagree with the notion "we" knew anything about Dan Uggla's future. We may have suspected, September may have hinted at what this season would bring but there's a core of people here who like to say how average is the last stat you look at when someone is making an argument regarding a player not well respected by them, there's another side to that coin, Uggla leads ALL MAJOR LEAGUE 2B in homeruns and doubles, and is 2nd in Total Bases to Brandon Phillips. Can his average and some imputed stats be higher, absolutely, but playing major league average or better defense and leading in those three real world, tangible categories says to me that Dan Uggla was not the problem in 2007. They'll fix that tick in his swing and I suspect you'll see his BA rise in 2008. You saw a glimpse of it a couple of times this season when Presley got him to keep his bat still and much, much more upright and he was staying behind the ball far better and hitting to all fields, but he keeps falling back into that old Gary Sheffield-like habit of cocking, cocking, cocking the bat and it hurts him with certain types of pitchers who use it against him.

 

Long post. Probably too far afield of the subject at hand and for some a chance to take potshots. But I think what happened this year can't be laid at the feet of any one coach, or the manager exclusively, there have been a number culprits here and not the least of which is some of the players.

 

There's lots of blame to go around.

good stuff and plausable theories

good stuff and plausable theories

 

Thank you, and thank you for recognizing them for what they are, theories. I don't purport to have insider knowledge nor do I claim infallability, but for me that's how the pieces fall together. :thumbup

Yes excellent post 2003.

 

These would be my top contributing factors for an awful season of Marlins baseball:

 

 

 

-Injuries to the starting pitching (not necessarily caused by poor management of innings pitched). Pitchers get injured. It happens. Many of you believe in "luck" stats. Well guess what, maybe the starting staff suffered from "bad luck" this year. Bad News Bear defense night in and night out did not help our arms out either. Which leads me to the next contributing factor....

 

- Defense. Lets face it, it was actually hard to watch. I think defense is where we missed Girardi and Perry Hill the most. Im sure some baseball historian will tell me that defense is not important but when you have young pitchers with young minds, its very important. Scott Olsen was grinding it out last night and trying to end the season on a relatively high note and his defense let him down. No they didnt let him down. That would be an understatement. His defense spanked his pee-pee.

 

-Dontrelle and Olsen looked lost the entire season. Willis was good enough to squeeze out some wins (I count several quality starts) but Kevin Gregg vomitted on his shoes and cost Willis 4 wins. Unfortunately, Gregg was not to blame for a really bad May-July for Willis. Willis is to blame.

 

- The last contributing factor is this.......This team simply wasnt that good from Day 1. There is a reason that the over/under on wins prior to the start of the season was in the area of 76.

I think defense is where we missed Girardi and Perry Hill the most.

 

False on all accounts.

I think defense is where we missed Girardi and Perry Hill the most.

 

False on all accounts.

 

 

 

It would make for better reading if you explained why it is false on all accounts.

If we didnt miss Hill most on D then where did we miss him the most?

I don't call injuries slumps. They are something different. It has nothing to do with player "being lucky" and performing "better than they really are". 3/5ths of our projected rotation (which would be really good) have basically spent the entire season on the DL. At least one will spend all of next season on the DL. And this isn't a team that has the means to accomodate this kind of problem. If Kranitz & Girardi didn't know well enough to shut them down sooner last year (or at least to start pulling them sooner) then someone higher up should have stepped in.

I think defense is where we missed Girardi and Perry Hill the most.

 

False on all accounts.

 

 

 

It would make for better reading if you explained why it is false on all accounts.

 

I'm just going to throw this out there as I have before. IF the defense were such an overwhelming problem, we'd be in the middle of the league in terms of earned-runs allowed.

 

It's just incomprehensible for me to blame a defense when we're #1 in the league in walks allowed and #2 in earned runs allowed, neither of which has ANYTHING to do with the defense. Since, you know, quantifiable pitching stats generally don't punish the pitching for defensive short comings, since that's what EARNED runs is all about.

I think defense is where we missed Girardi and Perry Hill the most.

 

False on all accounts.

 

 

 

It would make for better reading if you explained why it is false on all accounts.

 

I'm just going to throw this out there as I have before. IF the defense were such an overwhelming problem, we'd be in the middle of the league in terms of earned-runs allowed.

 

It's just incomprehensible for me to blame a defense when we're #1 in the league in walks allowed and #2 in earned runs allowed, neither of which has ANYTHING to do with the defense. Since, you know, quantifiable pitching stats generally don't punish the pitching for defensive short comings, since that's what EARNED runs is all about.

Poor defensive range leads to extra EARNED runs allowed.

 

Several of our players have very poor range (we're last in the league in DER) which means they don't make a boatload of plays an average fielder would make and many of the plays not made aren't classified as "errors" and that means many of the extra runs allowed because of the poor range end up as EARNED runs.

I think defense is where we missed Girardi and Perry Hill the most.

 

False on all accounts.

 

 

 

It would make for better reading if you explained why it is false on all accounts.

 

I'm just going to throw this out there as I have before. IF the defense were such an overwhelming problem, we'd be in the middle of the league in terms of earned-runs allowed.

 

It's just incomprehensible for me to blame a defense when we're #1 in the league in walks allowed and #2 in earned runs allowed, neither of which has ANYTHING to do with the defense. Since, you know, quantifiable pitching stats generally don't punish the pitching for defensive short comings, since that's what EARNED runs is all about.

Poor defensive range leads to extra EARNED runs allowed.

 

Several of our players have very poor range (we're last in the league in DER) which means they don't make a boatload of plays an average fielder would make and many of the plays not made aren't classified as "errors" and that means many of the extra runs allowed because of the poor range end up as EARNED runs.

I don't even think it's only that. How many times have we had a error or two on what should have been the last out, then have the pitcher try to be perfect, throw a few meatballs, and let the other team have a huge inning. I, and from what I've seen others on this forum, am convinced that one of the reason our pitchers have been giving up so many runs is because they don't trust their defense to get the putout if the ball is put in play. Any pitcher that thinks they have to be perfect and throw nothing but strikeouts to get an out will never have a low ERA.

That anyone would try to excuse away the horrendous defense this season because pitchers have given up too many walks (and they have but that's not the point) is really mind-blowing and without credibility. Zero. Poor defense doesn't always show up as errors, nor is its impact on the game only displayed in unearned runs. Poor defense is poor defense and it can't be ignored, not by the lowliest Marlin and not by the team's superstars.

 

There's been a lot of bad baseball played out there this year. To make a case it hasn't had a cause and effect on pitching or on the team's performance is laughable. Earned runs as a stat don't necessarily take into account poor play, just bad enough play that an error was called.

 

We've had a season of watching better and lesser teams (not necessarily in the standings but in talent) put on clinics on how baseball should be played defensively and yet some still think that the only thing that matters is protecting the annointed even if that means conveniently forgetting baseball has an offense and a defensive component.

 

It also points out once again the saying "a little knowledge is a dangerous thing" was never truer than when some try to use stats to make a point they weren't meant to make.

we could do both if we get a stadium deal finalized soon

 

Keep dreaming......will this ever happen ? What is going on in regards to this ? I thought after the Canes made their decision, that was the catalyst for a Marlins deal, yet we've heard NOTHING since then.

we could do both if we get a stadium deal finalized soon

 

Keep dreaming......will this ever happen ? What is going on in regards to this ? I thought after the Canes made their decision, that was the catalyst for a Marlins deal, yet we've heard NOTHING since then.

I kinda like the silence...it is better than trying to pitch to the public or lobby to the public officials to try to get something...I kinda believe that instead of all talk there might actually be some action going on somewhere

As of today, the Marlins have made 131 errors

 

The Colorado Rockies have made 64. Colorado has won 7 in a row and are making a run at the playoffs.