April 24, 200917 yr And Ricky right now has a .391 BABIP. That's not going to keep happening. He'll be fine, I promise. He doesn't have to change a thing. If his BABIP was the .298 it's been for his career nobody would be worried. Since you pulled the "luck" card out it should be noted that if anything he was "lucky" in '08 because his babip was lower than what it should have been based on the number line drives he allowed. Is that seperating his June-September? Because he was a whole different pitcher then.
April 24, 200917 yr And Ricky right now has a .391 BABIP. That's not going to keep happening. He'll be fine, I promise. He doesn't have to change a thing. If his BABIP was the .298 it's been for his career nobody would be worried. Since you pulled the "luck" card out it should be noted that if anything he was "lucky" in '08 because his babip was lower than what it should have been based on the number line drives he allowed. Is that seperating his June-September? Because he was a whole different pitcher then. From his TB start to end, he had a .257 BABIP and a 19% LD rate (18-19% LD is league average and what most every pitcher puts up, .300-.310 expected BABIP)
April 24, 200917 yr He's not really unlucky though because he's around what his expected BABIP is. He's throwing way too many hittable balls at the moment. His LD% should drop, yeah, but that'll be because he should stop throwing so many hittable balls.
May 3, 200917 yr It isn't a poor start. It isn't a great start. The grandslam he gave up? Was set up by surprise bunts and an error on Gload. He was going fine until then.
May 3, 200917 yr bunt, bunt, error, HR to Derrek Lee. That is just unlucky. Pitched much better today than what happened. Still not where he needs to be, but this was 'better' comparing it to previous starts. He's not a lost cause. Yet.
May 3, 200917 yr I'll start worrying when he stops throwing strikes or stops K'ing hitters. I still think he'll be fine, despite all the knee-jerk reactions. This only covers about 1/5 of his starts for the year.
May 4, 200917 yr bunt, bunt, error, HR to Derrek Lee. That is just unlucky. Pitched much better today than what happened. Still not where he needs to be, but this was 'better' comparing it to previous starts. He's not a lost cause. Yet. My thoughts exactly.
May 4, 200917 yr Is anyone surprised he's allowing a lot of XBHs? You have to live with that with the type of pitcher he is. He limits base runners so you live with the 2Bs and HRs. He can still be an effective pitcher, but if you have 3 unlucky at bats in a row like he did, then yeah he might get screwed. If you actually watched the game and think about it a little beyond the surface, today was a very promising game for him.
May 4, 200917 yr The whole pinch runner thing couldn't have helped him any. That took forever. I'm still concerned about his inability to put guys away once he gets 2 strikes.
May 4, 200917 yr I'm willing to give him 2 or 3 more starts to figure things out before something needs to be done to improve his peformances: @ Colorado (Hammel) @ Milwaukee (Bush) vs Arizona (Petit) Those may not be the starters. Without checking the schedules I'm presuming they might be based on the fact they pitched yesterday as did Nolasco.
May 4, 200917 yr bunt, bunt, error, HR to Derrek Lee. That is just unlucky. Pitched much better today than what happened. Still not where he needs to be, but this was 'better' comparing it to previous starts. He's not a lost cause. Yet. :thumbup
May 5, 200917 yr just to echo Lou's "unlucky" point, check out baseball prospectus article today. It's fantasy-league related but regarding underperforming pitchers that fantasy owners should look into: Ricky Nolasco may be the unluckiest pitcher out there this season. Unlike Baker or Blanton, Nolasco's home-run rate is normal, meaning that his ERA is even more of a small-sample aberration. The Marlins defense has not done him any favors, as he owns a .381 BABIP, and has stranded just 55 percent of baserunners (the league average this year is closer to 71 percent). That's strange since Florida's defense has been around the average this year; they rank 18th in the majors in Defensive Efficiency, though 11th in the NL. Those of you who were already getting fed up with his inability to deliver on last year's promise should not fret one bit, as more time will heal this rift between his QERA and ERA. (QERA adjusts ERA by taking into account K rate, BB rate, and groundball rate since those tend to stabilize pretty quickly in a season, as opposed to ERA which can still fluctuate wildly early on.)
May 5, 200917 yr just to echo Lou's "unlucky" point, check out baseball prospectus article today. It's fantasy-league related but regarding underperforming pitchers that fantasy owners should look into: Ricky Nolasco may be the unluckiest pitcher out there this season. Unlike Baker or Blanton, Nolasco's home-run rate is normal, meaning that his ERA is even more of a small-sample aberration. The Marlins defense has not done him any favors, as he owns a .381 BABIP, and has stranded just 55 percent of baserunners (the league average this year is closer to 71 percent). That's strange since Florida's defense has been around the average this year; they rank 18th in the majors in Defensive Efficiency, though 11th in the NL. Those of you who were already getting fed up with his inability to deliver on last year's promise should not fret one bit, as more time will heal this rift between his QERA and ERA. (QERA adjusts ERA by taking into account K rate, BB rate, and groundball rate since those tend to stabilize pretty quickly in a season, as opposed to ERA which can still fluctuate wildly early on.) It looks like the guy who wrote the article has no idea that Nolasco leads the league in line drives allowed or that line drives allowed end up as hits some 70%+ of the time or that the OPS allawed per line drive is almost 2.000.
May 5, 200917 yr his line drive rate is way up & ground ball rate is down from his norms in previous years. 18% to 28%, can't expect that will last.
May 5, 200917 yr his line drive rate is way up & ground ball rate is down from his norms in previous years. 18% to 28%, can't expect that will last. Certainly his LD% rate so even out, the point is though that he isn't getting "unlucky" with babip. his babip is roughly where it should be. He's "unlucky" with his LD%, either because hitters are making good contact on good pitches (which I'd deem as "unlucky" as that would even out over time) or because he's throwing way too many hittable fast balls over the plate because he's too scared to walk a guy (Which I'd pick in this case, and while this is likely even out, it's still not really a matter of luck but a matter of bad pitching).
May 23, 200917 yr Author his line drive rate is way up & ground ball rate is down from his norms in previous years. 18% to 28%, can't expect that will last. Certainly his LD% rate so even out, the point is though that he isn't getting "unlucky" with babip. his babip is roughly where it should be. He's "unlucky" with his LD%, either because hitters are making good contact on good pitches (which I'd deem as "unlucky" as that would even out over time) or because he's throwing way too many hittable fast balls over the plate because he's too scared to walk a guy (Which I'd pick in this case, and while this is likely even out, it's still not really a matter of luck but a matter of bad pitching). Its about time we sent him down. Now its time to shake up the coaching staff.
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