Posted July 1, 200915 yr We're only one month away from the deadline and we know from Beinfest last night that the phone lines are already jammed. Barring either a horrible cold stretch by this team or cold feet on our FO's part, we have to expect some kind of deal coming in the next month which will almost certainly send out a big piece. More and more I'm convinced that big piece will be either Uggla, Ross, or Coghlan. Except in Coghlan's case, I believe his newfound versatility and the need to switch him to 2B following an Uggla departure (either at the deadline or offseason). The catch in this is that the org may see Bonifacio as a future starting second basemen, it is clear that he is well liked by the powers that be and that the organization believes he is playing out of position. And as much as Coghlan is well-liked and doing a great job in the leadoff spot, the only possible replacement we could bring in for him is our wild-card- Cameron Maybin. It might have all been Gm speak to keep Maybin's value high, but it certainly sounded like Beinfest was pleased with what he has done in AAA and that he would be in the majors right now if he had a place to play. That says to me that they can envision him being able to take over any of our outfield spots. And for as much as I criticize Maybin for not doing the things that are going to help him reach his true talent ceiling, it is still possible to imagine him coming up to the majors and adequately replacing the production we are getting from either Hermida or Coghlan. And if Maybin feels comfortable in his return, he could possibly go on a hot tear just like he did in September of last year. Both Coghlan and Bonifacio's ability to place second base make it possible that Uggla is the one who could go. Ever since Uggla won his arbitration case we've all imagined that his time here was limited. And Uggla has reinforced that notion by having his least impressive year in the majors yet, continuing a down streak that has existed since the second half of last year. Calling Uggla's run a down streak does come with some footnotes- he is still hitting home runs and driving in runs at a very good pace, especially for his position. However, his vacant AVG this year has lead his presence to feel like exactly that at times in this lineup- vacant. For better or worse, Uggla has earned national exposure through all-star games and has earned national accolades at time for his play. How much this would turn into trade value is impossible for those of us who post on message boards to ascertain. I think I speak for a lot here when I say that if the value was there, Uggla is the piece I will list here that I'd most be OK with dealing. Cody Ross has had an interesting career with the Marlins where he finally worked through two and a half years of injuries and time as a bench player to become a starter in CF, a position that few would have ever though he would flourish in considering the revolving wheel we had there his first two and a half years here. And its his ability to play this position and all other outfield positions well (and his seemingly endless stream of highlight reel catches) that makes him a valuable trade piece, which has already lead to a well-known inquiry from the Braves. His high energy play, positive attitude, and penchant for big moments has lead him to become a fan favorite of many fans, myself included, as evidenced in the Cody chants during his at-bats. Yet Cody's penchant for big moments can be interpreted any numbers of ways. His numbers are blaoted by his grand slams and other homers which have sometimes occurred in garbage time. And he can be streaky, sometimes being practically invisible in the lineup, much like Uggla. Yet he also succeeds in times when this team needs it the most- he comes up with big hits with the game on the line, breaks up no-hitters with good at-bats, all kinds of things. The one potentially telling thing I find about the way the team views Cody is that despite his offensive numbers, he is still hitting in the bottom of the lineup behind Hermida and Uggla. There are certainly justifications for this- his OBP is much lower than either hitter. Yet it is entirely possible that other teams could envision him more in the middle of the lineup due to his production. There are many reasons for this team not to trade Cody- the stellar defense, big-time offensive moments, and popularity with the fans, which should be more important with this franchise than others. Yet with the natural (though not necessarily superior) CFer Maybin being our big second-half wild card, and with the value that Cody apparently has with other teams, it will certainly tempt the FO. I myself hope they keep Ross, as he has solified a position vacant since Pierre left in 2004 ( :thumbup ) and is the type of big-moment hitter and fielder I'd really want on my team in a playoff game. We have some other trading pieces as well, which could include Hermida, West, and Maybin. Hermida is a piece that I am certain by now the FO would be 100 percent OK with dealing, but his value is entirely up the air right now, much like his status on the boards is. There are those that believe he is a 25 year old outfielder who has considerable talent and has yet to hit his stride- certainly there are some teams around the league that would agree to this and be OK with taking a flier on him. Others view him as a bloated prospect who has stagnated and has become all he is going to become. No matter how the organization views Hermida, with our considerable payroll constraints he is going to become too expensive to gamble upon while other comparable players are performing up to their salaries. A change of scenery could not hurt Hermida, and many organizations around the league would agree. The big question is how valuable Hermida really would be on the market, and if his trade could actually net us the piece we are looking for. Sean West is another trading piece which some on the boards have mentioned, and he may have possibly been in trade talks already. He's an interesting piece- a fifth starter on this team but one who has upside. The fact that he is a fifth starter means there is the possibility of this team parting with him without losing too much to the current team. And although there are no guarantees that he will be able to contribute as well, Rick Vanden Hurk is ready in AAA and could possibly provide comparable production yet doesn't have half the trade value that West does. The gamble here is that RVH is currently our safety net, which the beginning of the season showed we need. Anibal Sanchez could certainly be a wild card in this situation- but I'm not sure of his readiness to contribute down the stretch and I'm unaware of the FO opinion. Trading West would also rid us of our one legitimate pitching prospect, possibly creating a void that would hurt us for several years. Maybin could be a trading piece, but prospects are much harder to deal twice for any real value, especially one who has struggled in the majors. Discussing Maybin could take an entire thread and since he is not a current piece of our team, he falls into a different category of discussion. Suffice to say, this next month is going to be interesting if the team can keep on winning more games than they lose. I've never been in such anticipation of the deadline as I am now.
July 1, 200915 yr I strongly believe that we won't deal any of our starters or guys in the Minors like Maybin. Why should we? We have a great chance at winning the East and we are definately not going to be sellers. Having said that if I absolutely had to name a player that may get dealt, I would say Hermida.
July 1, 200915 yr I strongly believe that we won't deal any of our starters or guys in the Minors like Maybin. Why should we? We have a great chance at winning the East and we are definately not going to be sellers. Having said that if I absolutely had to name a player that may get dealt, I would say Hermida. I agree with this post. Hermida will most likely be the one dealt.
July 1, 200915 yr Author I strongly believe that we won't deal any of our starters or guys in the Minors like Maybin. Why should we? We have a great chance at winning the East and we are definately not going to be sellers. Having said that if I absolutely had to name a player that may get dealt, I would say Hermida. Well, dealing Maybin wouldn't have the potential to create a void on the major league squad for the stretch run, as he isn't part of the active squad. Whenever you deal a player who is part of your major league team, you're gambling on being able to fill the void that it creates in addition to gambling that the player you pick up is going to perform. While dealing Maybin would certainly hurt us long-term, in the short-term we wouldn't have to worry about not having the presence of say, a Dan Uggla in the lineup. In other words, if you are going to gamble in bringing in a championship, if you can deal a player without losing any production at the major league level, you may consider it and weigh it with the longterm pros/cons. We traded Adrian Gonzalez (among others) in 2003 and while we lost out on future production, the fact that we traded him instead of losing out on major league production likely helped us win the championship. If you can afford the longterm consequences, which we may or may not, there's a lot of merit for normal major league teams to trade prospects in order to get better at the deadline. On top of that, most who are selling are looking for prospects or at least longterm pieces at the deadline.
July 1, 200915 yr There are two drivers. Completing the stadium deal with shovels in the ground. Whether the team remains in contention or not. If they are playing for something, namely the playoffs I don't see Uggla's bat out of the lineup. Nor do I see Maybin going anywhere but Beinfest and company could throw PR to the wind (trading essentially the guy you got for Miggy). When they got Urbina they used prospects. I suggest they'll do the same although not every current position player is safe.
July 1, 200915 yr Author The thing with using prospects is that I don't think we have enough guys in our system that would really qualify as expendable. I think it would be much easier for the franchise to deal an Uggla than it would be to deal a Stanton. I certainly think guys like Gaby Sanchez could be easily dealt, but he and many of the others in our system are more secondary pieces than they are primary pieces. And I just don't see us trading Mike Stanton. Logan Morrison is a possibility that I would not count out, in fact if another team was willing to give us a significant piece for it I would be all for it. You could include Maybin as a prospect as well. There are teams out there silly enough to trade good players for a combination of secondary players- look at some of the trades bad organizations like Pittsburgh has made when dealing away their stars. But our recent trades have all involved us giving away significant major league pieces for secondary pieces, and I'm not going to operate under the assumption that Beinfest can pull off a coup when it is more realistic to expect that we will have to give up something good in order to give up something good. The last time we made a truly significant deadline deal was in 2004, when we made the deal with the Dodgers involving Encarnacion, Lo Duca, and Mota for Penny and Choi (I can't remember the exact details). And we all remember the 2003 trade for Urbina where we gave up significant pieces. We have made trades last year and in 2005 to bring in relievers without giving up too significant of pieces, but if we bring in a closer, which we could, that would take another Urbina deal. I think we all believe that this team is a third basemen and closer away from being a playoff team if everything goes right. The playoffs are in sight but to really have a chance of getting there and playing well, it is more likely going to involve a large trade that will move a significant piece of our current team or future.
July 1, 200915 yr Hermida's trade value is not high. He is not very good at offense or defense despite what his little fan club says. In 2 years he will end up a #4 outfielder in the pros on the bench like I've been saying. You can't play corner OF and slug .350.
July 1, 200915 yr If we stay this close in the standings I don't think they'll trade anyone big. Maybe Hermida since they keep benching him anyway but I doubt they would get the type of return they'd want for him. I can see some smaller trade happening like us sending an ok prospect for a bullpen arm or something along those lines. Obviously if we go on a bad losing streak they could go nuts..
July 1, 200915 yr It depends on what the front office is looking to add. I haven't seen any signs that they're looking to add a bat, at least from anywhere other than our own minor leagues. And if all we're talking about is a bullpen arm, I am not in favor of trading away any significant pieces. Now if it's just a deal to go ahead & move one of our pricier vets, I think it'll probably be a package.... but unless we fall out of contention it would be a challenge for them to craft a deal that doesn't make it look like a salary dump during a playoff push... I mean even if you did something (for arguments sake) like Uggla for a top pitching prospect (and even if the deal is pretty widely praised) you've just taken a huge bat from your lineup during a playoff push and the return isn't in the lineup.
July 1, 200915 yr Author It depends on what the front office is looking to add. I haven't seen any signs that they're looking to add a bat, at least from anywhere other than our own minor leagues. And if all we're talking about is a bullpen arm, I am not in favor of trading away any significant pieces. Now if it's just a deal to go ahead & move one of our pricier vets, I think it'll probably be a package.... but unless we fall out of contention it would be a challenge for them to craft a deal that doesn't make it look like a salary dump during a playoff push... I mean even if you did something (for arguments sake) like Uggla for a top pitching prospect (and even if the deal is pretty widely praised) you've just taken a huge bat from your lineup during a playoff push and the return isn't in the lineup. We're not gonna be making any dumps just for salary reasons. However, as somebody earlier in this thread mentioned, we could very well send Hermida on his way at the deadline, but it would not just be for salary purposes as much as it is that we could probably get a somewhat useful piece, like an average arm, and the team thinks that his production would be easily replaced. And if it came to it, we could be clever and trade Hermida for something mildly valuable while trading for someone who lacks the notoriety but could provide competent production. I think this trade is unlikely as the team would probably just promote Maybin and hope he can outperform Hermida's token contributions, or at least that the benefit of picking up another arm would outweigh the potential production decrease. I still think that some kind of move for third base is highly likely. Adn hearing the "he's playing out of position" comment (acout Bonifacio) last night really makes me feel that a move is forthcoming. As much as they like Bonifacio, I don't think Beinfest & Co. could justify not making a move if the division is still as close at the end of July.
July 1, 200915 yr I really hope we keep Ross, I love the guy, my favorite current marlin, and its not even close. I think he could give us some solid years in LF, with Cam in center, and stanton the future in RF. Uggla and Hermida can go anytime though, and im down for a trade before the deadline this year.
July 1, 200915 yr Author No one. If you're happy with coming up just a little bit short again, then that is the way to go. We took the no-one approach last year and we were on the outside looking in. And I can say with no hesitation whatsoever that last year's team was a much more talented and much more deep team, at least down the stretch where we faltered greatly. We've had the same core since 2006 and two out of those three we ended up just good enough to be knocked out of the wild card race in late September. We're playing just good enough this year and I sure don't want to rest on our laurels, especially with such glaring holes as 3B and closer. Even if Nunez/Meyer hold down the closer role, we just took one of our only effective setup men and now we have a hole there (I say this as Pinto walks away the game again).
July 1, 200915 yr I really hope we keep Ross, I love the guy, my favorite current marlin, and its not even close. I think he could give us some solid years in LF, with Cam in center, and stanton the future in RF. Uggla and Hermida can go anytime though, and im down for a trade before the deadline this year. They probably will but what I'm worried about with Cody is that he's playing well and his trade value is going up. Another player that might go is Cantu
July 1, 200915 yr the people I would never want to trade are cody, hanley, cantu, CC, and if we trade uggla we better get another bat not just another arm
July 1, 200915 yr We need offense. Unless we can trade someone and some prospects for someone better, it makes no sense to trade guys like Cantu, Ross, or Uggla. We need someone other than Hanley to hit reliably.
July 1, 200915 yr We need offense. Unless we can trade someone and some prospects for someone better, it makes no sense to trade guys like Cantu, Ross, or Uggla. We need someone other than Hanley to hit reliably. exactly
July 2, 200915 yr I really hope this team does not trade Cantu or Ross! Not this season nor next season!
July 2, 200915 yr It depends on what the front office is looking to add. I haven't seen any signs that they're looking to add a bat, at least from anywhere other than our own minor leagues. And if all we're talking about is a bullpen arm, I am not in favor of trading away any significant pieces. Now if it's just a deal to go ahead & move one of our pricier vets, I think it'll probably be a package.... but unless we fall out of contention it would be a challenge for them to craft a deal that doesn't make it look like a salary dump during a playoff push... I mean even if you did something (for arguments sake) like Uggla for a top pitching prospect (and even if the deal is pretty widely praised) you've just taken a huge bat from your lineup during a playoff push and the return isn't in the lineup. We're not gonna be making any dumps just for salary reasons. However, as somebody earlier in this thread mentioned, we could very well send Hermida on his way at the deadline, but it would not just be for salary purposes as much as it is that we could probably get a somewhat useful piece, like an average arm, and the team thinks that his production would be easily replaced. And if it came to it, we could be clever and trade Hermida for something mildly valuable while trading for someone who lacks the notoriety but could provide competent production. I think this trade is unlikely as the team would probably just promote Maybin and hope he can outperform Hermida's token contributions, or at least that the benefit of picking up another arm would outweigh the potential production decrease. I still think that some kind of move for third base is highly likely. Adn hearing the "he's playing out of position" comment (acout Bonifacio) last night really makes me feel that a move is forthcoming. As much as they like Bonifacio, I don't think Beinfest & Co. could justify not making a move if the division is still as close at the end of July. Agree with all of that. I don't personally think any moves would be done purely for salary dump reasons, just that they need to be careful how a move is perceived by the fans too. And I don't feel that Hermida is a very significant piece to the team so I wouldn't have a problem with him involved in a deal.
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