August 10, 200917 yr I don't see how this team could replace Ross, Hermida, and Uggla with rookies and expect to make any sort of improvement. The fact is that as good as rookies can be (and we've had our share of outstanding rookies, including Coghlan) it is hard to predict their performance. Statistically speaking, it is likely that only one of those replacements will end up out-producing those current three players next year. Of course, anything is possible, but you repeat this move 150 times over and on average the offense will be downgraded. If I were the FO, I'd keep Ross for sure. He's trending up in his career and I think he's a very very solid player. I know his OPS is just decent (low .800s), but he provides extremely solid defense and I think his presence on the team really makes a difference. I love seeing his routes in the outfield - he runs in a straight line towards the spot the ball will land. Hermida should be a goner if the FO can get a fair deal for him. I think Hermida has all the innate and physical tools to be a .300 hitter, but I think he's not the smartest player, both at the plate and in the field. When I am at games, I hate seeing Hermida take routes to the ball. His route is like a zig zag, and I get the feeling he's not really sure where the ball will land. At the plate, he seems incapable of making adjustments. His 2007 season was outstanding, but the league made the necessary adjustments against him and he was unable to respond appropriately. If he could make the proper adjustments, he could be a perrennial .300 hitter. We see other rookies and young players on our team make adjustments very quickly - Hanley (not a fair comparison since Hanley is a superstar), Coghlan, Willingham, Ross, etc. It almost feels like he doesn't realize pitchers have made adjustments. That he gets first pitch fastball strikes far more often now than before, and yet he just sits there and takes first pitch called strikes. I think he's not that smart. Let's send him off somewhere else. Uggla can easily be replaced by Coghlin. I think Uggla realizes his value is with the long ball, so he tends to swing for the fences nearly every at bat. If he could go with the flow a bit more he'd be more successful overall. And I think he realizes this, but he wants the long ball to be his forte. For a second baseman, that kind of production will earn him some real money. He's a good player, but he's not going to change and he will probably not improve very much. The questions are: who replaces Coghlin in LF and who replaces Hermida in RF? Seems like Maybin is ready to take over in CF - he's hitting .328/.415/.471 in AAA as a 22 year old. His slugging is a bit low, but he's doing very well overall. The power will come eventually. So that moves Ross over to RF. Who replaces Coghlin in LF? I am not sure we have anyone that is ready to step it up in LF. We know Mike Stanton is a special prospect. He's only hitting .239/.322/.469 in AA. Sure, he's very young... only 19. This kid is going to be a monster. But I am not sure he'll be ready for prime time by the start of next season. Even if he is, we'll probably see Miggy 2003 type production, which is to say productive but not explosive. Maybe the AZ Fall League or a winter league somewhere in Latin America will speed up his progress. We know Johnson will walk at the end of the season - so who replaces him? Is Logan Morrison ready for prime time? Again - AZ fall league would do him wonders. My point is simple: don't expect to see an improved team if you move Uggla, Hermida, Ross, and lose Johnson and replace ALL OF THEM with rookies. We have a capable replacement for Uggla and a replacement in the outfield for Hermida (Maybin). We cannot be so sure of our replacements for the other two guys. So, just keep the best of the bunch. In this case, I am quite positive Ross is the man. I'd bat him behind Cantu. So, Coghlin, Baker, Hanley, Cantu and Ross would be my first five hitters. Then we put Maybin in the sixth spot. The seventh and eighth sports are going to be black holes for us. Now, whoever thinks this team can be as good as it is if it loses Uggla, Hermida, Ross, Johnson AND Cantu is mistaken. That would mean losing way too much production. If the Marlins can afford a $50 million payroll, I'd keep Uggla. I am not sure why everyone here assumes the Marlins have to stay at a payroll in the low 40s. A $50 million payroll is still very very low. Welcome to the forums! And well, remember that we are the Marlins. Too low is never too low for us. We always find a way to redefine it.
August 10, 200917 yr Author I don't see how this team could replace Ross, Hermida, and Uggla with rookies and expect to make any sort of improvement. The fact is that as good as rookies can be (and we've had our share of outstanding rookies, including Coghlan) it is hard to predict their performance. Statistically speaking, it is likely that only one of those replacements will end up out-producing those current three players next year. Of course, anything is possible, but you repeat this move 150 times over and on average the offense will be downgraded. If I were the FO, I'd keep Ross for sure. He's trending up in his career and I think he's a very very solid player. I know his OPS is just decent (low .800s), but he provides extremely solid defense and I think his presence on the team really makes a difference. I love seeing his routes in the outfield - he runs in a straight line towards the spot the ball will land. Hermida should be a goner if the FO can get a fair deal for him. I think Hermida has all the innate and physical tools to be a .300 hitter, but I think he's not the smartest player, both at the plate and in the field. When I am at games, I hate seeing Hermida take routes to the ball. His route is like a zig zag, and I get the feeling he's not really sure where the ball will land. At the plate, he seems incapable of making adjustments. His 2007 season was outstanding, but the league made the necessary adjustments against him and he was unable to respond appropriately. If he could make the proper adjustments, he could be a perrennial .300 hitter. We see other rookies and young players on our team make adjustments very quickly - Hanley (not a fair comparison since Hanley is a superstar), Coghlan, Willingham, Ross, etc. It almost feels like he doesn't realize pitchers have made adjustments. That he gets first pitch fastball strikes far more often now than before, and yet he just sits there and takes first pitch called strikes. I think he's not that smart. Let's send him off somewhere else. Uggla can easily be replaced by Coghlin. I think Uggla realizes his value is with the long ball, so he tends to swing for the fences nearly every at bat. If he could go with the flow a bit more he'd be more successful overall. And I think he realizes this, but he wants the long ball to be his forte. For a second baseman, that kind of production will earn him some real money. He's a good player, but he's not going to change and he will probably not improve very much. The questions are: who replaces Coghlin in LF and who replaces Hermida in RF? Seems like Maybin is ready to take over in CF - he's hitting .328/.415/.471 in AAA as a 22 year old. His slugging is a bit low, but he's doing very well overall. The power will come eventually. So that moves Ross over to RF. Who replaces Coghlin in LF? I am not sure we have anyone that is ready to step it up in LF. We know Mike Stanton is a special prospect. He's only hitting .239/.322/.469 in AA. Sure, he's very young... only 19. This kid is going to be a monster. But I am not sure he'll be ready for prime time by the start of next season. Even if he is, we'll probably see Miggy 2003 type production, which is to say productive but not explosive. Maybe the AZ Fall League or a winter league somewhere in Latin America will speed up his progress. We know Johnson will walk at the end of the season - so who replaces him? Is Logan Morrison ready for prime time? Again - AZ fall league would do him wonders. My point is simple: don't expect to see an improved team if you move Uggla, Hermida, Ross, and lose Johnson and replace ALL OF THEM with rookies. We have a capable replacement for Uggla and a replacement in the outfield for Hermida (Maybin). We cannot be so sure of our replacements for the other two guys. So, just keep the best of the bunch. In this case, I am quite positive Ross is the man. I'd bat him behind Cantu. So, Coghlin, Baker, Hanley, Cantu and Ross would be my first five hitters. Then we put Maybin in the sixth spot. The seventh and eighth sports are going to be black holes for us. Now, whoever thinks this team can be as good as it is if it loses Uggla, Hermida, Ross, Johnson AND Cantu is mistaken. That would mean losing way too much production. If the Marlins can afford a $50 million payroll, I'd keep Uggla. I am not sure why everyone here assumes the Marlins have to stay at a payroll in the low 40s. A $50 million payroll is still very very low. A lot to digest, so I'll address it straight down. Replacing Ross, Hermida, and Uggla... that is an .800 OPS, a .725 OPS, and historically an .825 OPS. Averaged all together, this is coming in around a cumulative .780ish OPS or so. Not even including Bonifacio's amazing 400 PA over a .600 OPS which won't happen (I hope) next year, I don't think it's crazy to imagine Coghlan, Maybin, and Morrison to immediately replace this level of offense. These are really good prospects. I expect Maybin to be as good as McCutchen right away, Coghlan is already showing his worth, and Morrison is just the natural. I don't think this is a huge leap of faith. It's not like we are replacing a bunch of .850 OPSing hitter and we expect the rookies to immediately hit their peak. I don't think Stanton is a 2010 candidate. You'd expect Morrison, Dominguez, Stanton, Cousins, and Petersen to all go to the AFL. I don't think anyone is arguing if they clear all the arbitration bats and N. Johnson off the team, they will be able to match this season's offensive performance. They need to keep at least one, maybe two of them, to have a good offense on paper. Ideally it's three, but then there is the money question again. And the $40 million roundball I am using, comes implied from Samson as he keeps screaming "payroll matches revenue." The Marlins payroll the last 4 seasons has been - $15 million, $30 million, $22 million, $35 million. I think an upwards trend is likely as Hanley, the SP staff, main relievers, and a few arbitration eligible bats are all becoming more expensive, but I can't jump as high as $45-50 million for 2010 right now. I see a $5-6 million jump, and they can field a really good team with that number. But I hope you are right and it's $50 million, because this team will be awesome if so. I can see $50 million in 2011 as they rev up for the new ballpark though.
August 10, 200917 yr I can see the all of this happening. But I would rather keep Cody after this season and offer him a one year deal in case either of of the two, Morrison in OF or Stanton aren't ready. So we can use the Maybin, Cody, and B.C./Bonifacio (whoever combo in the of)in the OF assuming that Uggla is not resigned and C.C. moves to 2nd. I don't think there a point to have Amezega after this season either. We have a much cheaper replacement in Bonifacio and Mez has been injured most of this season so we don't know if we'll get the same player, we also save a little bit of money for any other player we would like to resign or try to sign through FA. But Overall pretty much great job Lou, you've answered a lot of my and most likely others questions and given us an good idea of what could possibly happen this offseason. Keep Up the good work.
August 10, 200917 yr This predicting is fun and I've enjoyed it but realistically, based on experience and having gone through these exercises, 25% of next year's roster is an unknown. At this time last year the Marlins had no clue about Bonifacio, Calero, Myers, Sanches, Gload, etc. Second, in an unrelated note, and I hate to bring every one down, the summer before Hanley is due 15M I expect he will be gone. If I'm not mistaken that would be in 2012, ala the year that the New Stadium is open and I think we would keep our Franchise Player up til then but I wouldn't surprised if he was gone the season after that.
August 10, 200917 yr Author Second, in an unrelated note, and I hate to bring every one down, the summer before Hanley is due 15M I expect he will be gone. You are insane if you think the Marlins are going to trade Hanley Ramirez the offseason before we move into a new stadium. I mean, way to get the fan base pumped for the new building.
August 10, 200917 yr This doesn't really relate to 2010 but is there any chance We sign Mark Mulder? He's supposed to be ready for September and could be a number 4 or 5 guy.
August 10, 200917 yr Second, in an unrelated note, and I hate to bring every one down, the summer before Hanley is due 15M I expect he will be gone. You are insane if you think the Marlins are going to trade Hanley Ramirez the offseason before we move into a new stadium. I mean, way to get the fan base pumped for the new building. This but It would be ten times better if he manages to win an MVP Award)even better if it's his 1st MVP) the season before so they can promote to come out and watch the reigning MVP at the New Stadium etc.
August 10, 200917 yr This doesn't really relate to 2010 but is there any chance We sign Mark Mulder? He's supposed to be ready for September and could be a number 4 or 5 guy. Doubt it and when we resign Miller the only way we get/use Mulder is to be in the bullpen. Next year we could have pretty much the same rotation of J.J. Nolasco, Volstad, Miller, Anibal/West/RVH the exception being Anibal is and RVH being healthy from the start and West having a good amount of MLB expirience.
August 10, 200917 yr This doesn't really relate to 2010 but is there any chance We sign Mark Mulder? He's supposed to be ready for September and could be a number 4 or 5 guy. Doubt it and when we resign Miller the only way we get/use Mulder is to be in the bullpen. Next year we could have pretty much the same rotation of J.J. Nolasco, Volstad, Miller, Anibal/West/RVH the exception being Anibal is and RVH being healthy from the start and West having a good amount of MLB expirience. I'm talking about for this year and then I guess we could trade him next year if we didn't need him. I dot see miller coming back into the rotation this year.
August 10, 200917 yr This doesn't really relate to 2010 but is there any chance We sign Mark Mulder? He's supposed to be ready for September and could be a number 4 or 5 guy. Doubt it and when we resign Miller the only way we get/use Mulder is to be in the bullpen. Next year we could have pretty much the same rotation of J.J. Nolasco, Volstad, Miller, Anibal/West/RVH the exception being Anibal is and RVH being healthy from the start and West having a good amount of MLB expirience. I'm talking about for this year and then I guess we could trade him next year if we didn't need him. I dot see miller coming back into the rotation this year. I'd rather have West/Hopper or RVH as the 5th starter and you have to put in account that Mulder would need AT LEAST 2 or 3 Rehab starts in the minors before being called up and by then we'd either be A. In the playoffs where we can't afford to start someone who hasn't pitched the entire season or B. Eliminated from contention of the playoffs meaning he isn't needed. Good Idea though but we'd be better of trying to get a player at the waiver deadline who has pitched all year. Maybe Padilla? But he's said to be a hassle in the clubhouse and throws at other players often.
August 10, 200917 yr This doesn't really relate to 2010 but is there any chance We sign Mark Mulder? He's supposed to be ready for September and could be a number 4 or 5 guy. Doubt it and when we resign Miller the only way we get/use Mulder is to be in the bullpen. Next year we could have pretty much the same rotation of J.J. Nolasco, Volstad, Miller, Anibal/West/RVH the exception being Anibal is and RVH being healthy from the start and West having a good amount of MLB expirience. I'm talking about for this year and then I guess we could trade him next year if we didn't need him. I dot see miller coming back into the rotation this year. I'd rather have West/Hopper or RVH as the 5th starter and you have to put in account that Mulder would need AT LEAST 2 or 3 Rehab starts in the minors before being called up and by then we'd either be A. In the playoffs where we can't afford to start someone who hasn't pitched the entire season or B. Eliminated from contention of the playoffs meaning he isn't needed. Good Idea though but we'd be better of trying to get a player at the waiver deadline who has pitched all year. Maybe Padilla? But he's said to be a hassle in the clubhouse and throws at other players often. On BBTN one of the guys (I think Olney) said he would be game ready by September. Im fine with West but i just dont want Hopper starting any more. Hes great in long relief but thats it. Hopefully Anibal come back and can do somethings.
August 10, 200917 yr I don't see how this team could replace Ross, Hermida, and Uggla with rookies and expect to make any sort of improvement. The fact is that as good as rookies can be (and we've had our share of outstanding rookies, including Coghlan) it is hard to predict their performance. Statistically speaking, it is likely that only one of those replacements will end up out-producing those current three players next year. Of course, anything is possible, but you repeat this move 150 times over and on average the offense will be downgraded. How do you figure this, statistically speaking?
August 10, 200917 yr Lou, you are a freak. That was an awesome read and I've learnt so much about baseball from your posts, great job. What do you think it would cost to re-sign Nick Johnson to a 1-year deal based on his performance? It's unlikely that he'd take a 1-year deal, but I'm just curious as to what he'd cost if he wanted to go that route. I'm thinking keeping NJ / Cantu as our corner infielders, whilst getting rid of Hermida / Uggla to free up payroll, could be worth it ... with Dominguez / Logan to replace NJ / Cantu in 2011. It's hard to predict free agency as clubs can do whatever they want. Abreu signed a $5 million 1 year deal this offseason. Adam Dunn 2 years, $20 million. Russell Branyan $1.4 million. Juan Rivera 3 years $12.75 million. Giambi $5.25 million (including buyout). Casey Blake 3/$17.5 million. Who knows if teams still feel the economy is keeping them down and they'll all be 'cheaper' across the board. Making a wild guess, Johnson doesn't hit bombs, and isn't a guy a team would want longterm because of that and his injury history. He is still pretty good though with that .400+ OBP so someone is going to value him decently. I bet Johnson would want a 3-4 year deal averaging $6+ a year, but I just don't see that out there. You'd imagine somebody eventually steps up and gives Johnson that second year guaranteed for $5-6 a year. So I'd say maybe two years, $10-12 million? Totally could be wrong but that's where I'd probably guess right now in August. Like you said, it's unlikely he takes a 1 year deal before the week Spring Training starts. Obviously the Marlins have payroll constraints. But given our personnel, Nick Johnson is exactly the kind of player we could gamble on for a lower-risk, higher-reward type of contract. If he gets hurt, we should get decent production out of Morrison/Gaby in his stead. If he stays healthy, he figures to bring more to the table in 2010 than either of those guys (not to mention the intangible effects his patience and approach may have on the lineup and other hitters). That also allows us to be more patient with Logan's development or to put him in LF if necessary; however, let's say they can get him for 1 yr/6 mil or 2 yrs/12 mil, I think we should probably defer to spending that money to retaining Cody (assuming we can only do one of the aforementioned).
August 10, 200917 yr Good sh!t, Lou. I don't see them keeping Uggla, to much money for someone who can be replaced at a much cheaper price. Also, We need to lock JJ down, ASAP. I think its a forgone conlusion, that a countdown on Uggla's at bats in a Marlins uniform could be done. There is no way the team pays him $ 8 million, coming off a year of down production.
August 10, 200917 yr I don't see how this team could replace Ross, Hermida, and Uggla with rookies and expect to make any sort of improvement. The fact is that as good as rookies can be (and we've had our share of outstanding rookies, including Coghlan) it is hard to predict their performance. Statistically speaking, it is likely that only one of those replacements will end up out-producing those current three players next year. Of course, anything is possible, but you repeat this move 150 times over and on average the offense will be downgraded. How do you figure this, statistically speaking? Just the law of averages. Take a random set of hundreds of minor leaguers in the past who have produced as well as the three rookies (at the same age and level) we propose take over next year and I guarantee you that in their first season in the big leagues on average they don't OPS as well as the guys we're talking about (Ross, Hermida, and Uggla... of course, easier to out OPS Hermida...). In other words, even good looking prospects tend not to OPS in the very high .700s and low .800s. In fact, this year there is exactly ONE ROOKIE that plays regularly (at least 250 at bats so far) in all of MLB that is out OPS-ing Ross and Uggla. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/rookie/sort/OPS/minpa/250 . There are only FIVE regular rookies in all of MLB that are OPS-ing higher than .750. Among all rookies with at least 25 at bats, the median OPS is .685. There were FIVE regular to semi-regular rookies in 2008 in all of baseball which had OPS's over .800. In other words, it's not so easy to OPS in the high .700s as a rookie. It is even harder to OPS over .800 as a rookie. Even really good players in their first season end up not OPS-ing over .800. Miggy's OPS in 2003 was .793. Chipper Jones' OPS was in that range, too, during his rookie season. And for every rookie that OPS's in the high .800s or even .900s, there are probably several top prospects that end up flaming out or not doing very well. Case in point: Jeremy Hermida (OPS of .700 in 2006). How many other top prospects have we had that did not pan out? Coghlin has done very well this year. He's one of the top rookies in terms of OPS. We would be extremely lucky if the three guys that replace Ross, Uggla, and Hermida OPS as well as Coghlin. Even if they did, however, we wouldn't be any better offensively next year than we are this year.
August 10, 200917 yr Welcome to the forums! And well, remember that we are the Marlins. Too low is never too low for us. We always find a way to redefine it. Thanks! Actually, I am not new, but I lost my password and for some reason whenever I try to retrieve it there is some sort of error sign. I normally go by the screenname prinmemito.
August 10, 200917 yr Welcome to the forums! And well, remember that we are the Marlins. Too low is never too low for us. We always find a way to redefine it. Thanks! Actually, I am not new, but I lost my password and for some reason whenever I try to retrieve it there is some sort of error sign. I normally go by the screenname prinmemito. LOL I knew there was something fishy about the name, I just wasn't sure it was you.
August 10, 200917 yr Author I don't see how this team could replace Ross, Hermida, and Uggla with rookies and expect to make any sort of improvement. The fact is that as good as rookies can be (and we've had our share of outstanding rookies, including Coghlan) it is hard to predict their performance. Statistically speaking, it is likely that only one of those replacements will end up out-producing those current three players next year. Of course, anything is possible, but you repeat this move 150 times over and on average the offense will be downgraded. How do you figure this, statistically speaking? Just the law of averages. Take a random set of hundreds of minor leaguers in the past who have produced as well as the three rookies (at the same age and level) we propose take over next year and I guarantee you that in their first season in the big leagues on average they don't OPS as well as the guys we're talking about (Ross, Hermida, and Uggla... of course, easier to out OPS Hermida...). In other words, even good looking prospects tend not to OPS in the very high .700s and low .800s. In fact, this year there is exactly ONE ROOKIE that plays regularly (at least 250 at bats so far) in all of MLB that is out OPS-ing Ross and Uggla. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/rookie/sort/OPS/minpa/250 . There are only FIVE regular rookies in all of MLB that are OPS-ing higher than .750. Among all rookies with at least 25 at bats, the median OPS is .685. There were FIVE regular to semi-regular rookies in 2008 in all of baseball which had OPS's over .800. In other words, it's not so easy to OPS in the high .700s as a rookie. It is even harder to OPS over .800 as a rookie. Even really good players in their first season end up not OPS-ing over .800. Miggy's OPS in 2003 was .793. Chipper Jones' OPS was in that range, too, during his rookie season. And for every rookie that OPS's in the high .800s or even .900s, there are probably several top prospects that end up flaming out or not doing very well. Case in point: Jeremy Hermida (OPS of .700 in 2006). How many other top prospects have we had that did not pan out? Coghlin has done very well this year. He's one of the top rookies in terms of OPS. We would be extremely lucky if the three guys that replace Ross, Uggla, and Hermida OPS as well as Coghlin. Even if they did, however, we wouldn't be any better offensively next year than we are this year. I can't agree. First, we can't use a random sample of 100 minor leaguers at the same level. We need a random sample of 100 minor leaguers who are considered top hitting prospects in the minors. Maybin and Morrison would clearly be in this category. Coghlan and G. Sanchez would not be, but are not considered shlomos at the same time either as many rookies are. Second, I don't like your sample size because a lot of rookies are in platoons, which we would be putting them in also, so you are missing a great deal of excellent performances by limiting it to 250 AB through mid August. I have no argument a lot of great players start slow, but there are a lot of guys producing decently as rookies at the moment. Garret Jones .996 Jake Fox .920 Casey McGehee .869 Gordon Beckham .852 Andrew McCutchen .838 Norman Reimold .808 Kyle Blanks .790 Will Venable .781 Chris Coghlan .778 Dexter Fowler .770 Gerardo Parra .765 Everth Cabrera .755 Brett Gardner .754 -- Top Prospects on this list who are below Mat Gamel .743 Colby Rasmus .721 Travis Snider .686 Matt Wieters .682 Taylor Teagarden .636 2008 Over .800 - Chris Davis, Joey Votto, Evan Longoria, Daniel Murphy, Geovany Soto, Pablo Sandoval, John Baker (
August 10, 200917 yr I don't see how this team could replace Ross, Hermida, and Uggla with rookies and expect to make any sort of improvement. The fact is that as good as rookies can be (and we've had our share of outstanding rookies, including Coghlan) it is hard to predict their performance. Statistically speaking, it is likely that only one of those replacements will end up out-producing those current three players next year. Of course, anything is possible, but you repeat this move 150 times over and on average the offense will be downgraded. How do you figure this, statistically speaking? Just the law of averages. Take a random set of hundreds of minor leaguers in the past who have produced as well as the three rookies (at the same age and level) we propose take over next year and I guarantee you that in their first season in the big leagues on average they don't OPS as well as the guys we're talking about (Ross, Hermida, and Uggla... of course, easier to out OPS Hermida...). In other words, even good looking prospects tend not to OPS in the very high .700s and low .800s. In fact, this year there is exactly ONE ROOKIE that plays regularly (at least 250 at bats so far) in all of MLB that is out OPS-ing Ross and Uggla. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/rookie/sort/OPS/minpa/250 . There are only FIVE regular rookies in all of MLB that are OPS-ing higher than .750. Among all rookies with at least 25 at bats, the median OPS is .685. There were FIVE regular to semi-regular rookies in 2008 in all of baseball which had OPS's over .800. In other words, it's not so easy to OPS in the high .700s as a rookie. It is even harder to OPS over .800 as a rookie. Even really good players in their first season end up not OPS-ing over .800. Miggy's OPS in 2003 was .793. Chipper Jones' OPS was in that range, too, during his rookie season. And for every rookie that OPS's in the high .800s or even .900s, there are probably several top prospects that end up flaming out or not doing very well. Case in point: Jeremy Hermida (OPS of .700 in 2006). How many other top prospects have we had that did not pan out? Coghlin has done very well this year. He's one of the top rookies in terms of OPS. We would be extremely lucky if the three guys that replace Ross, Uggla, and Hermida OPS as well as Coghlin. Even if they did, however, we wouldn't be any better offensively next year than we are this year. I can't agree. First, we can't use a random sample of 100 minor leaguers at the same level. We need a random sample of 100 minor leaguers who are considered top hitting prospects in the minors. Maybin and Morrison would clearly be in this category. Coghlan and G. Sanchez would not be, but are not considered shlomos at the same time either as many rookies are. Second, I don't like your sample size because a lot of rookies are in platoons, which we would be putting them in also, so you are missing a great deal of excellent performances by limiting it to 250 AB through mid August. I have no argument a lot of great players start slow, but there are a lot of guys producing decently as rookies at the moment. Garret Jones .996 Jake Fox .920 Casey McGehee .869 Gordon Beckham .852 Andrew McCutchen .838 Norman Reimold .808 Kyle Blanks .790 Will Venable .781 Chris Coghlan .778 Dexter Fowler .770 Gerardo Parra .765 Everth Cabrera .755 Brett Gardner .754 -- Top Prospects on this list who are below Mat Gamel .743 Colby Rasmus .721 Travis Snider .686 Matt Wieters .682 Taylor Teagarden .636 2008 Over .800 - Chris Davis, Joey Votto, Evan Longoria, Daniel Murphy, Geovany Soto, Pablo Sandoval, John Baker (
August 10, 200917 yr Coghlin has never been considered one of the top prospects in baseball (very good prospect, but I don't recall Coghlin ever being ranked in the top 50 in all of baseball), yet he has produced at every level and is now doing very well as a rookie for the Marlins. Since '07 he's always been on the cusp of top-100. Normally in the 101-110 range though might be higher to some. Was ranked as one of if not the best "pure" 2b specs but that doesn't say all that much because a lot of better specs are listed as SS but then move to 2b in the majors (goes for some 3b as well).
August 10, 200917 yr Coghlin has never been considered one of the top prospects in baseball (very good prospect, but I don't recall Coghlin ever being ranked in the top 50 in all of baseball), yet he has produced at every level and is now doing very well as a rookie for the Marlins. Since '07 he's always been on the cusp of top-100. Normally in the 101-110 range though might be higher to some. Was ranked as one of if not the best "pure" 2b specs but that doesn't say all that much because a lot of better specs are listed as SS but then move to 2b in the majors (goes for some 3b as well). He's a good player. My point was that he is a good player regardless of how high he's listed on "top prospects" list. His production in the minors was consistently very good, so I am not surprised he's doing well.
August 10, 200917 yr I'm surprised by the defensive success Coghlan has had in LF. I mean he didn't exactly prove himself to be a great defensive player in 07 or 08 (19 and 23 errors total respectively). Hopefully he can be extremely successful at 2B next year when Uggla is gone. I remember the reports of how god awful a fielder Coghlan was last year in the minors, didn't know what to make of him as a defensive player. Now at least I can feel somewhat assured that he won't be a complete disaster at 2B.
August 11, 200917 yr Author You are giving a lot of examples, but most of those players were the exception, not the norm. In other words, you picked the very best 5-10 rookies every year to come up with that list. And look at the list you provide yourself... the "top prospects" are all below .800. All I am saying is that if you make the moves you suggest 100 times over on average we will be looking at a downgraded offense. Of course, we gotta play within our constraints. The moves you suggest are the best possible moves given our limited payroll. Still, I think it's a fallacy to believe it's more likely than not that the replacements will be sufficient to overcome the loss of those players. Could it happen? Sure. Anything's possible. First, I'm not cherry picking. That's flat out the list of all the rookies. Morrison and Maybin should not be compared to the tons of Bonifacio, De Azas, and Brett Hayes (i.e. the norm) rookies that come up every year and do nothing. These are different animals. Second, who cares if they don't hit .800. It's about what offense they need to replace - and that's about a .765 OPS cumulatively from the guys who will be going out. I think all of our rookies/second year players have the ability to hit .765, let alone cumulatively. I think we score around the same amount of runs next year if our lineup is this: R Maybin CF L Coghlan 2B/LF R Hanley SS R Cantu 3B L Morrison 1B/LF R Ross RF L Baker C R G. Sanchez 1B / Carroll LF/RF Bench - Bonifacio, Helms, Paulino, G. Sanchez/Carroll, "Veteran Bat" That's 5 spots to 1st and 2nd year players, and an additional 2, 1st and 2nd year players on the bench. But if we can't 'afford' Ross, and we have to rely on something else, like more of Carroll, Gaby, and Bonifacio subbing in, I still don't think it's going to be that big of a deal. We're in pretty good shape here. Bonifacio and Hermida are so bad, even if we come down from Uggla and Ross, it's all going to average into something replaceable.
August 11, 200917 yr after watching lindstrom almost blow it again tonite if the guy gets anywhere near 1.85 million he needs to be traded. we could use money like that on veterans looking for a comback like we did with donnelly and calero
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