August 9, 200917 yr We're past the trade deadline, and I doubt any of our arbitration players go during the waiver period, so we pretty much know what we have going into next year. At this point, stats are pretty locked in and it'll take a really abysmal/amazing performance to get them drastically off their season averages and seriously effect an expected arbitration total. Season stats are all from the last few days. As you can tell, it’s taken me basically the entire Phillies series to research and type this up. Yes, I multitask and am not that crazy. SHORT ANSWER Players Under Contract Hanley Ramirez - $7,000,000 Wes Helms - $950,000 -- Arbitration estimates for the 2010 season (Updated Post-Season, October 10th) Dan Uggla - $7.75 million Jorge Cantu - $6 million Josh Johnson - $5.8 million or a 4-5 year contract averaging $11+ million per year. See more below. Ricky Nolasco - $4.25 million Cody Ross - $4.2 million Jeremy Hermida - $3 million Leo Nunez - $2 million Matt Lindstrom - $1.65 million Alfredo Amezaga - $1.4 million Anibal Sanchez - $1.2 million Scott Proctor - $1.2 million (Already Released) Ronny Paulino - $900,000 thousand Reynel Pinto - $850,000 thousand -- Expected Club Controlled Figures (tendering 2-3 year players slightly higher. Official minimum is $400,000+cost of living inflation increase) Andrew Miller - $2 million (not arbitration, see more below all of the arbitration cases) John Baker - $415,000 Emilio Bonifacio - $415,000 Brett Carroll - $415,00 Chris Volstad - $415,000 Dan Meyer - $415,000 Rick Vanden Hurk - $415,000 Brian Sanchez - $415,000 Burke Badenhop - $415,000 Sean West - $405,000 Gaby Sanchez - $405,000 Cameron Maybin - $405,000 Other Rookies with relatively no experience - $405,000 -- Club Options Ross Gload - $2,600,000 (no buyout) -- Free Agents Nick Johnson Kiko Calero Luis Ayala Brendan Donnelly VERY LONG ANSWER --- Dan Uggla (4th year salary $5.35) 2008 - 146 G, 531 AB, 97 R, 32 HR, 92 RBI, 171 K, .260/.360/.514 (.874) 2009 - 105 G, 370 AB, 51 R, 20 HR, 57 RBI, 95 K, .235/.353/.449 (.802) (Aug. 7th) Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 158 G, 550 AB, 80 R, 30 HR, 85 RBI, 150 K, .245/.360/.450 (.810) ACTUAL Season Line - 158 G, 564 AB, 84 R, 31 HR, 90 RBI, 150 K, .243/.354/.459 (.813) Not a second baseman, but what’s really important to note is Garret Atkins. 2007 - 605 AB, .853 OPS, 25 HR, 111 RBI - Club Controlled YEAR 3 2008 - 611 AB, .780 OPS, 21 HR, 99 RBI - $4.3 million YEAR 4 2009 - $7.05 Million < - YEAR 5 So regardless of a 70 OPS drop, once you make a lot, you make a lot and will get a significant pay raise. Granted Atkins still had very close HR/RBI/AB totals, but Uggla is going to get “close� (HR, only a handful less RBIs, less than 20 less Runs, a lot less K), to his 2008 rates even if that OPS is well off a .874. So anyway you look at it, Uggla is not going up $1-2 million. Uggla’s going to go up $3-4. Year 5 Chase Utley - $7.5, with unknown parts of signing bonus additional to this Hanley - $ 7 (using middle infielders too) Pedroia - $5.5 Tulo - $5.5 Kinsler - $4 Alright so we get the idea. Uggla is already over nearly all of them. This is easy. Atkins went down in performance, got a little less than a $3 million raise. Uggla’s performance is basically the same decline, but he’s still going to be paid. Low - $7.4. Utleyish. Marlins try to be cute and slot him below him, and lose again. They did this in 2009 with a $4.4 million-$5.3 million gap (Utley made $4.5 in year 4, so there whole argument was "he's not as good as Utley." Doesn't work, as Utley had a contract with lower figures upfront. Dummies). Medium - $8 million. This is an Atkinsish $2.7 raise, and very realistic. High - $8.75. Uggla’s agent really try to push slot but bit off more than they can chew. NEW (October 10) Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 158 G, 550 AB, 80 R, 30 HR, 85 RBI, 150 K, .245/.360/.450 (.810) ACTUAL Season Line - 158 G, 564 AB, 84 R, 31 HR, 90 RBI, 150 K, .243/.354/.459 (.813) Not a bad projection from the summer at all there. Pretty much nailed it. So the short answer is, Uggla is as Uggla does. Uggla was 9th in offensive production among 2B in 2009. In 2008, he was 3rd. The rise of guys like Ben Zobrist, Aaron Hill, and Albertso Callaspo may help a small amount here by just creating more depth at the position for current production comparisons. Considering this, I still stand by all of the original math and Uggla is due for a big raise. I feel more comfortable slotting Uggla down slightly from the preliminary $8,000,000 estimate though. I think he will be between Utley ($7.5) and $8,000,000. I’m going to say $7.75 million, and it’s going to be give or take $250,000 when all is said and done. -- Jorge Cantu (Current 5th year salary - $3.5 million) 2008 - 155 G, 628 AB, 92 R, 28 HR, 95 RBI, .277/.327/.481 (.808) 2009 - 98 G, 389 AB, 40 R, 11 HR, 60 RBI, .282/.345/.445 (.785) (Aug. 6) Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 152 G, 600 AB, 70 R, 18 HR, 90 RBI, .280/.340/.460 (.800) Comparables Joe Crede (5th year salary $4.94 M, 6th year $5.1 M). Came off injury from 07-08 so he got a nominal upgrade. He had a .828 OPS in year 4, which warranted him getting up to the $5 million range in year 5. Casey Blake (5th year $3.75, 6th year $6.1). Blake had a .777 OPS in year 5, which lead to that salary in year 6. Cantu is going to match Blake’s year in a worst case scenario, probably get over it. Chad Tracy is making $5.75 this year (including buyout). He just sucks. Bill Hall is going to make $6.8. But he also has the added positional flexibility, making him a ‘maybe’ comp, but we don’t have much to look for. Longoria is going to make $6 million, in year 6. Wow. Zimmerman $8.9. Wright $10. Some 1B for food for though. A. Gonzalez $5.5, Laroche and Overbay each $7, Pena $8. Youk $9. Morneau $10.6. Just not good comps here. Alright, so that’s a good baseline. Crede did nothing in 2007, and got over $5. Blake did OK, and got over $6. Blake also had a $2.25M jump which is 60% of his previous contract value. The Tracy comp sucks for the Marlins. Cantu has to go above him based on his last two year, and immediate year, performance. So does he get to Blake? Depending on where his season line this year ends will dictate that question. The combination of not always at 3B may slot him a little higher as it seems 1B make more than 3B (or maybe they are just better, which is likely), but Cantu’s horrific defense could be a tie breaker and slot it down. Low - $5.75. He gets Tracy’d. Medium - $6.25. Over Blake. He is statistically better than him with more HR/RBI, and his lack of playing time in 2007 and defense don’t really hurt him. High - $7. Atkins. He really, really, pounds the ball the last 50 games and gets to the .830 OPS/28 HR/100RBI level, and doesn’t commit to many of the mystical “errors.� NEW (October 10) Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 152 G, 600 AB, 70 R, 18 HR, 90 RBI, .280/.340/.460 (.800) ACTUAL Season Line - 149 G, 585 AB, 67 R, 16 HR, 100 RBI, .289/.345/.443 (..788) He had a really weird end of the year with a huge jump in RBI, but relatively no slugging jump. I’d say getting to that 100 RBI threshold was beneficial to him. Looking at the comps, I still find this very scary. The Casey Blake one is money, and so is everyone else on the planet being in that $5.5 million range. I am holding firm at the $6,000,000 projection, give or take $250,000. --- Josh Johnson (Current 4th year salary - $1.4 million) 2008 - 87.1 IP, 7-1, CG, 3.61 era, 77 K, 1.35 whip 2009 - 148 IP, 10-2, 2 CG, 2.98 era, 123 K, 1.11 whip (as of Aug 6th) Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 220 IP, 15-4, 3.25 era, 185k, 1.15 whip We have such an amazing comp it’s not even funny. I know I have done this before, but just for keeping it in one spot. Zack Greinke 2007 - 122 IP, 7-7, 3.69 era, 106 K, 1.30 whip < - Half year because of injury, just like JJ 2008 - 202.1 IP, 13-10, 3.47 era, 183 K, 1.28 whip < - $1.4 million year 4. Same as JJ Post 2008, Greinke signed a 4/$38 extension, $3.75-$7.25-$13.50-$13.5 (signed after year 4) So where do we begin. Greinke is spot on from years 3/4. This is the slot, we just have to value how much more is JJ than Greinke. JJ has an enormous “loss� advantage, a bit of whip, and probably a quarter to a half run less era. He also made the all-star team in 2009. JJ is clearly going to be slotted above Greinke off performance, and because of inflation. Contract Comparisons - Player Stats for Year 4 / Contract Value Year 5 Adam Wainwright - 158.1 IP, 12-7, 2.79 era, 1.28 whip, 140 K / $4.65 million (signed after year 2) Matt Cain - 148 IP, 12-3, 2.25 era, 1.16 whip, 117 K / $4.25 million (signed after year 1) Jon Lester - Currently in year 3 / $5.75 million (signed after year 2) James Shields - Currently in year 3 / $4.25 million (signed after year 1) Cole Hamels (a Super2), signed a contract for years 3-4-5 for $4.35, $6.65, and $.9.5 million. The $9.5 is technically his year 5 salary so that isn’t comparable to JJ, but that $6.65 certainly marks the HIGH. Hamels was coming off a 227 IP, 14-10, 3.09 era, 1.08 whip, 196 K season. That is certainly very comparable to what Johnson is doing right now. Hamels signed the deal after year 2. Other notable pitchers hitting arbitration year 5, year 4 salary noted - Felix Hernandez ($3.8), Justin Verlander ($3.6) So the question now is, what’s JJ’s arbitration status for next year. What is JJ’s longterm contract status for next year. Each I think have very, very, different, responses. Arbitration At this point, it is clear Johnson is going to murder people all year. When I did this before, I was assuming a back to earth period where JJ’s era would shoot back to “good not amazing� levels of 3.6-3.8, the whip climbs over 1.20, etc. But JJ has decided he’s going to be a legitimate # 1 SP. Great, awesome. Despite the fact his Year3 innings are low and Greinke is such an amazing comp for all the reasons where we’d hope he’d only slot above him maybe a million bucks to the “Wainwright� level of compensation, we have the new Lester and Hamels contracts to deal with. JJ has to go above Lester in arbitration. He’s simply better than him and the Marlins are going to get slammed if they try and argue a low 3 era / 1.15 whip / 180 K JJ, is lower than a (projecting) 3.75 / 1.30 / 200 K Lester. There’s just no way an arbitration panel is going to buy that, even if you want to argue AL/NL, etc. Additionally, Lester is a bad comp for JJ because the 5th year contract price is LOWER than what the ‘free market’ would give because the Red Sox bought this year 3 years in advance. Jon Lester arguing a contract in three years is a higher value than him signing one right now. So suffice to say, if the Marlins are insane and don’t offer JJ a 4-5 year deal (see below), they are going to get slammed. I don’t know if JJ can get up to Hamels, who has been healthy and won the World Series, but it’s going to be. An additional problem would be if King Felix or Verlander randomly have their arbitration hearing before Johnson’s, or sign new deals. They would each get to Hamels levels easily. Making the case even harder for the Marlins. So the Arbitration Projection. Low - $4.75 million. Wainwrightish, and JJ is hurt by his lack of innings in 2008. Medium - $5.8 million. Lesterish, and JJ because the top non-Super2 slot for 5th year players. (not including Verlander or Felix really jumping here, which is possible) High - $6.75. Hamelsish, and JJ becomes the new slot because he is that awesome and general inflation I think the Marlins strategy would be a low 5 and arguing everyone but Hamels. I think if JJ trys to go huge with Hamels, he’ll get shot down for the lack of innings in year 3. Those innings won’t have a major effect on his figure, but they are still there to tip the scale. If the Marlins try to lowball this, like they did with Uggla last year, they are going to lose. But, I think discussing arbitration strategy is foolish. JJ needs the contract. And he needs it now. Contract So you don’t have to scroll up, Greinke signed a 4/$38 extension, $3.75-$7.25-$13.50-$13.5 (4/$38). Lester is making (years 5-8, including option) $5.75-$7.6-$11.6, $13 (4/$37). So we have a nice baseline for top young starters here. One, who has the same innings pitched track JJ does, and the other bought out years in advance. JJ has to be slotted above this. Forgot Wainwright, who is $4.6-$6.5-$9-$12 (4/$32). Nice deal for the Cards. So after the blah blah back and forth with JJ wanting a $70 million deal and the Marlins wanting to give him $38.01 million, I think this is reasonable. 2010 - $5.5 million 2011 - $7.75 million 2012 - $14 million 2013 - $14.25 million 2014 - $14.5 million club option / $1.5 buyout 4/$43 or 5/$56 That seems about right. JJ will either be 29 or 30 at the end of this deal, meaning he is due another huge payday in his career. Which is very important and why he’d never sign a 7 year deal. Not that we would want to either, but just saying. Overall. I find it imperative we sign JJ to a 4-5 year contract similar to the above. Not just because arbitration is scary, but because we don’t have to sign anyone else, and JJ is simply a cornerstone player you build around. Also from JJ’s perspective, he still is coming off the major arm surgery. Banking $5-6 million in arbitration would be nice, but that’s not “settle down forever� money. Getting a $40-50 million dollar contract is “locked up for life.� The time is now for both parties for the deal. Make it happen. NEW (October 10) Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 220 IP, 15-4, 3.25 era, 185k, 1.15 whip ACTUAL Season Line - 209 IP, 15-5, 3.23 era, 191 K, 1.16 whip Pretty much nailed this one too. I have nothing to change on Johnson. And I do not expect the Marlins to take him to arbitration. I forecast a 4-5 year contract, averaging $11 millionish per season. --- Ricky Nolasco ($2.4 salary year 4) 2008 - 212 IP, 15-8, 3.52 era, 1.10 whip, 186 K 2009 - 118 IP, 7-7, 5.00 era, 1.31 whip, 118 K Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 185 IP, 12-10, 4.50 era, 1.25 whip, 180 K Ricky is going to be weird. Ace type year 2008, ace type half season, worst pitcher ever half season. This is going to go to an arbitrator for sure. I can’t see the Marlins offering him anything based on the horrible year, and I’d do the same thing, and Ricky’s agent is going to be “45 of 60 starts have been ace quality.� This one is probably the most volatile. Even more volatile than JJ. Alright so. David Bush (Year 4 salary - $2.55) 2008 - 185 IP, 9-10, 4.18 era, 1.14 whip, 109 K Year 4, Year 5 Salary $4 million. Nate Robertson (Year 4 salary $3.25) 2007 - 177.2 IP, 9-13, 4.76 era, 1.47 whip, 119 K / Year 5 $4.25 (part of a contract) Joe Blanton (year 4 $3.7) 2008 - 197.2 IP, 9-12, 4.69 era, 1.41 whip, 111 K . Year 5 $5.7 (Arbitration) So these are all over the place. Notice these are all losing pitchers, the best one (whip right?) makes the least money. Why? Because Robertson and Blanton started higher off on the money in year 4 because they threw more innings in years 2 and 3. So the arm surgery is going to hurt Ricky here a bit just because he is starting lower than all of them, at $2.4. But Ricky is better than all of them. He has the best overall season in 2008. He has been ace like half of this year. His first half will certainly knock him down so he doesn’t drop a $3 million raise into the mid $5 million range, but he certainly has to be above the $1 million Robertson got, and probably a little over Bush’s $1.5 raise because he’s likely going to have more wins, similar era, ton more K, and an overall “better career� rating to tip the scale. Will he get a $2+ million raise? That’ll be interesting and where the aforementioned arbitration battle will concern. Low - $4. This is between a Bush/Blanton raise. Medium - $4.5. This is almost doubling his salary, and over the Blanton raise in dollar value. He gets this level because he’s better than Blanton, so despite starting lower on the pay scale than Joe, he gets the same dollar value moving up. This is of course, assuming the final line and Ricky really needs to be awesome to lower his era/etc. this low. If not, it will go closer to Bush. But I’m working under the assumption Ricky is a beast over his final 10 starts. High - $5. Inflation really drives it up. Find it unlikely. NEW (October 10) Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 185 IP, 12-10, 4.50 era, 1.25 whip, 180 K ACTUAL Season Line - 185 IP, 13-9, 5.06 era, 1.25 whip, 195 K What a weird year. I mean that whip and strikeout rate is insane, but that era is phenomenally unlucky. This is a full run drop if he pumps this peripherals again next year. Anyways, this case is 100% going to arbitration as the Marlins are going to try and lowball that ERA, which they should, and Nolasco is going to say, but I’m awesome everywhere else. Each have strong arguments. Looking at the comparables, and really looking at that Bush one with the fantastic whip, but not good era, Ricky does slot above this with the win/loss, and the unbelievable amount of strikeouts. I think that era will prevent a huge gain, so I am going to move this down slightly just based on the 5+ era and say this goes to about $4,250,000 on the year. This is the hardest one to predict of the lot. --- Cody Ross (4th year salary $2.2) 2008 - 145 G, 461 AB, 59 R, 22 HR, 73 RBI, .260/.316/.488 (.804) 2009 - 104 G, 381 AB, 55 R, 18 HR, 58 RBI, .257/.317/.472 (.789) (as of Aug 7th) Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 155 G, 560 AB, 80 R, 27 HR, 85 RBI, .260/.320/.475 (.795) And I have not determined how many lefties Cody will face the rest of the year to really pad the stats if he wants too. But I think the expectation is reasonable. Comparables Alex Rios 2007 - 161 G, 114 R, 24 HR, 85 RBI, 17 SB, .297/.354/.498 (.852) ($2.5) 2008 - 155 G, 91 R, 15 HR, 79 RBI, 32 SB, .291/.337/.461 (.798) ($4.8) Not perfect, but I want to use Rios because of the defensive factor to nip that in the butt right from the start. Cody obviously is killing it with the glove, so I wanted to at least have a similar offensive performer (OPS/HR wise) on the list. Also, because Rios $2.5 in year 4 is very similar to Ross $2.2 Year 5s Teahen - $3.5. Had a .715 OPS. Cody’s over this. Cuddyer - $3.75. Made $1.4 in year 4,significantly lower than Cody. Had .867 OPS year 4. This is a $2.5ish jump, so it shows how much you can go up. This is similar to Atkins, etc, when it comes to performance jumps. Sizemore - $4.6 Granderson - $5.5 Hawpe - $5.5 (made $3.9 in year 4, significantly higher than Cody) Braun - $6 (incentives could push up) Markakis - $6.75 (made $3 in year 4) I do not think this one is complicated. Cody is having a nice, non-breakout huge Cuddyer like season, so he’s due for a decent raise. He shouldn’t get as much of a raise as Cuddyer, but it should be close because of inflation. The rest of the star outfielders, Cody has no shot at. Low $3.5. Teahen, and Cody’s ‘lower’ AB in 2008 hurt him. Very doubtful. Medium $4.2. Gets a $2 million raise. Not quite the $2.5+ raise Atkins/Cuddyer and others have gotten, but enough to make a big dent in his salary. High - None. He’s not getting in sniffing distance of Sizemore. No upside here. New (October 10) Cody Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 155 G, 560 AB, 80 R, 27 HR, 85 RBI, .260/.320/.475 (.795) Actual Season Line - 151 G, 559 AB, 73 R, 24 HR, 90 RBI, .270/.321/.469 (.790) Pretty much as expected. This one is easy. I think he breaks $4, just like Nolasco, but really has no case besides this. Cody is a solid starting player. And that’s it. I think a $2 million raise is likely. --- Jeremy Hermida 2007 - .870 OPS 2008 - 142 G, 502 AB, 74 R, 17 HR, 61 RBI, .249/.323/.406 (.729) / 4th year salary $2.3 2009 - 103 G, 363 AB, 39 R, 11 HR, 41 RBI, .253/.337/.383 (.720) Reasonable Season Line Expectation - 145 G, 525 AB, 55 R, 16 HR, 60 RBI, .260/.340/.400 (.740) Mark Teahen (5th year $3.5). Was coming off a really bad .715 OPS full season in year four. i.e., exactly what Hermida is doing now. A really bad fourth year. This is a great comp, and I don’t think looking at others really matters. You can see “higher� comps looking at Cody, and I think it’s safe to say Hermida is not going to do that. So Teahen had 572 AB, 66 R, 15 HR, 59 RBI, and a .715 OPS, made the same money as Hermida made in year 4, and got a $1.2 million raise. Hermida is basically doing that. This is going to be quick and dirty. Low - $3. They bench him the rest of the year and doesn’t get the AB Medium - $3.5. They play him, and he does exactly what he’s been doing High - $4. He OPS’s .800+ and is totally sweet the rest of the year, to really bump the OPS R/RBI/HR points up significantly into the 75 R/RBI, 20 HR, .780+ OPS range. Very doubtful, but I’ll come back to this if Hermida decides to crush a lot. New (October 10) Reasonable Season Line Expectation - 145 G, 525 AB, 55 R, 16 HR, 60 RBI, .260/.340/.400 (.740) Actual Season Line - 129 G, 429 AB, 48 R, 13 HR, 47 RBI, .259/.348/.392 (.740) Not playing the last month really hurts the final season totals not getting those extra 20 games. But whatever. I’m systematically lowering this just because of the lack of playing time. Let's move him to $3 million, but I do suspect he'll get to $3.05, or $3.1, or something but I'm just doing this projections as a roundball and not trying to get an exact here. ---- Going to do all four at once Matt Lindstrom 2007-2008, 134 G, 6-7, 5 S, 33 Holds, 124ish IP, 3.10ish era, 1.38ish whip, 105 K 2009, 34 G, 31 IP, 2-1, 14 S, 2 H, 6.10 era, 1.81 whip, 26 K Reasonable Projection Season Line - 50 G, 45 IP, 3-2, 20 S, 5 H, still really high era/whip Career - Around 185 Games, 170 IP, sub 4 era, 1.45ish whip, 25 saves, 40 holds Leo Nunez 2005-2008 106 G, 160 IP, 9-7, 0 S, 10 H, 5ish era, 1.40ish whip, 110ish K 2009 53 G, 49 IP, 3-4, 10 S, 13 H, 3.86 era, 1.20 whip, 46 K
 Reasonable Projection Season Line - 75 G, 70 IP, 4-5, 15 S, 18 H, 3.50 era, 1.20 whip, 70 K Career - Around 185 Games, 230 IP, mid 4 era, 1.40 whip, 15 S, 30 Holds Reynel Pinto 2006-2008 - 151 G, 153 IP, 4-9, 2 S, 36 H, high 3 era, low 1.40s whip, 150ish K 2009 - 47 G, 40.2 IP, 3-1, 8 H, 2.66 era, 1.50 whip, 39 K Reasonable Projection Season Line - 70 G, 60 IP, 4-2, 2.90 era, 1.50 whip, 60 K, 12 H Career - Around 220 Games, 220 IP, mid 3 era, 1.45ish whip, 2 Saves, 45-50 holds, 200+ K Scott Proctor 2008 - 38.2 IP, 6.05 era, 1.68 whip 2009 - Injured Career - 262 G, 297 IP, 16-10, 1 S, 48 H, 4.42 era, 1.40 whip, 256 K So here is a basic primer of recent RP comparables. Years 4-5-6 salary trends Scott Downs $.705, $1.025, $2.25 Brian Shouse - $.725, $.975 Frank Francisco $.775, $1.6 Jason Grilli $.8 Jason Frasor - $.825, $1.125, $1.45 Matt Thornton $.875, $1.325 Dan Wheeler $.930, $2.1, $2.8 Matt Guerrier $.950k, $1.475 Jesse Crain $1.05 Heath Bell $1.2 CJ Wilson $1.85 Mike Gonzalez $2.25 Let’s start from the top. Mike Gonzalez. Was Awesome in Pitt, was doing sub 3 era whip years over 50 innings, got 24 saves in year 3. If Lindstrom gets every save here on out, he can match the saves total (and Gonzalez prior years were loogy-holds years, so this is similar to Lindstrom as well), so this is the PEAK. However, Lindstrom has the double era, and the atrocious most recent season. So let’s fine a less awesome Gonzalez. CJ Wilson in 2008 - 24 S, 6.02 era, 1.64 whip, and the two years prior very solid 115 IP of work at a 3.5 era, 1.30 whip, 22 H, etc. Career wise, CJ pitched 2005-2008 in 184 G, mid 4 era, 1.40+ whip, 24 S, 27 H, and around 170 K.This kind of looks like Lindstrom don’t it. Like, exactly. Except Lindstrom has better career ERA rates (ballpark factor, but I don’t know if arbiters will care for that argument), and more holds which are becoming slightly more ‘sexier’ as agents find ways to get middler relievers paid. To show how dramatic these save stats are, look at Heath Bell, unquestionable awesome. He is coming off back to back season which combine into 175 IP, a 1.10 whip, a low 3 era, an absurd 57 holds, 2 Saves, and 173 K. He makes less than CJ Wilson, because CJ Wilson has 20 more saves. *YIKES* Basically, going to stop with Lindstrom right here, and I am very surprised at where I am projecting this number. Based on CJ Wilson, Lindstrom is going to get paid. He has a better overall resume than CJ. The only thing CJ has is, more saves in year 3. This projection is based on Lindstrom getting 5-6 more saves, but overall isn’t probably going to change much if he doesn’t get him. The change would move from the medium to the low. Lindstrom Low - $1.65 million. He does not get any saves the rest of the year Medium - $1.85 million. He gets CJ’s contract and his better career rates make up the gap of not getting more saves in year 3 High - $2 million. Lindstrom is balls awesome the rest of the year and gets more saves. So let’s move down to Leo now. Who is getting saves to. He is 1/2 the saves of everyone else, low teens. Wheeler in 2006 had a 9 S/25 H year, and career wise had 14 saves entering arbitration. 4th year arbitration got him $930K, and he had really wicked back to back 70 IP, 2.50 era, 1.05 whipish seasons leading up to that. RP are insane! I love how CJ Wilson makes twice the money as Wheeler because he got 15 more saves. So, Leo does not have Wheeler’s resume, but he may end the year with some more saves if the Marlins opt to pitch him as closer versus Lindstrom. Let’s end Leo here, and assuming no horrific era explosion Low - $1,000,000. Leo gets no more saves Medium - $1,300,000. Leo gets 5-6 more saves. High - $1,600,000. Leo gets 10 more saves. So now we’re down to Pinto, just an ordinary non-save getting RP. I like Thornton here, for similar career rates (3.79, 1.35 whip, tons of holds, Under 5 Saves pre year 4), the lefty factor, and games played. Pinto has played a lot for a RP. He’s not as good as Thornton from the whip factor, so he probably won’t get all the way to him, but you can see the range of all of these guys falling into the 700-850k range, so that seems safe for pinto. Low - $750k. Whip hurts him Medium - $850k. All the games played add up to one of the higher RP comps. High - None. So now we’re at Proctor. He made $1.15 in 2008, coming off 180 IP and an absurd 135 games over 2006-2007. All good rates, around a 3.50 era, 1.30 whip, 45 holds, a save, etc. Really nice workhouse reliever, and it shows you that ‘saves’ aren’t determinative because he got over Wheeler’s 9 saves, with an extra 50 innings of work or so. Then in 2009, he was non-tendered because he sucked, and was surely going to get a bump to the $2-2.25 million range. Marlins signed him for $750k. I cannot think of any awesome RP for two years, crappy relief pitcher for 1 year, injured for entire next season, and then 6th year arbitration eligible RP comp. If you can, awesome. So I’m just going to guesstimate looking at some of those 6th year salaries (Guerrier and Frasor $1.4, Downs $2.2, Wheeler $2.8), where Proctor would land. Career good, recent two years bad. He’d at least get over $1 million. Maybe even a bit higher. But I’m going to just wild guess about $1.2 million. Making him a clear DFA for this organization. NEW (October 10) Some changes because of the allocation of saves, and Nunez really got a lot of them. Nunez Reasonable Projection Season Line - 75 G, 70 IP, 4-5, 15 S, 18 H, 3.50 era, 1.20 whip, 70 K Actual Season Line - 75 G, 68.2 IP, 4-6, 26 S, 14 H, 4.06 era, 1.25 whip, 60 K Lindstrom 50 G, 45 IP, 3-2, 20 S, 5 H, still really high era/whip Actual Season Line - 54 G, 47.1 IP, 2-1, 15 S, 8 H, 5.89 era, 1.65 whip Alright, so yikes. Let’s start with Nunez. CJ Wilson is the good comp here, because he had a 6+ era and then the 24 saves. Prior career, CJ and Leo are very close to each other in amount of time played, so these things will add up. Give a little for inflation. I’m moving Leo Nunez to $2,000,000 next year. Leo got a lot more saves than I anticipated doing this over the summer. As for Lindstrom, the initial low projection of him getting no more saves is probably what we’re looking at. I’d say he is in the $1.5-1.75 range, and I’ll slot it down for $1.6 to just split the difference. His lack of getting into 20 more games/innings will hurt him a little, but he still had a really great years 1 and 2, and did rack up some saves in year 3. No changes to Pinto. --- Alfredo Amezaga ($1.3 million) 2008 - 125 G, 311 AB, 41 R, 3 HR, 32 RBI, .264/.312/.367 (.679) 2009 - 27 G, 69 AB, 6 R, 0 HR, 5 RBI, .217/.267/.261 (.528) There is really not much here. These type of players are not retained by clubs through arbitration, and are cut loose into street free agents. Best I can find. Endy Chavez - $1.7 year 4, $1.8 year 5 Jamey Carroll -$.7k year 4, $1.7 year 5 David Eckstein - $2.25 both year 4 and 5. (Had a lot more playing time, this is the ‘high’) Nick Punto - $.69k year 4, $1.7 year 5 Aaron Miles - $1 year 4, $1.4 year 5 (year 5 was a non-tender resign, so prob worth more via arbitration. Miles was playing about 400 AB a season, with a high .600 OPS just like AA’s 2008 season. As we saw with Joe Crede above, missing a whole year still gets you a nominal raise. If Amezaga was healthy, we’d expect a raise to the $1.75 level which Chavez, Carroll, and Punto all got too as utility players. But since he’s been hurt, we don’t even need to go there. Projection - $1.4 million. NEW (October 10) - No Changes --- Anibal Sanchez 2006 - 18 G, 114.1 IP, 10-3, 2.83 era, 1.19 whip, 72 k 2007 - 6 G, 30 IP, 2-1, 4.80 era, 2.07 whip, 14 k 2008 - 10 G, 51.2 IP, 5.57 era, 1.57 whip, 50 K 2009 - 7 G, 35.2 IP, 5.55 era, 1.77 whip, 28 K Career - 41 G, 40 S, 231 IP, 15-13, 4.12 era, 1.48 whip, 164 K Reasonable Expectation Season Line - No freaking idea. But it doesn’t matter. Apparently John Patterson is out of the contract system, but if I remember correctly after his ace like 2005 season with the Nationals (31 G, 198 IP, 3.13 era, 1.19 whip, 185K), he got $1.8 million. 2002-2004, he made 32 starts. So about 63 starts. Anibal has had nowhere near this success in games player, or starts. So this represents the “high� for sure. So I’m trying to think of other injured starters that had underachieving fourth year arbitration figures as a result? Oh. Sergio Mitre (year 4 $1.2 million) 2003-2006 - 51 G, 25 S, 5-15, about 160 IP, eyeballing a 5.8ish era, etc 2007 - 27 GS, 149 IP, 5-8, 4.65 era, 1.48 whip, 80 K. Josh Johnson (year 4 $1.4 million) 2005-2007 - 39 G, 29 GS. 12-10, Had around 185 IP with a sub 3.50 era and 160 K or so. 2008 - 14 GS, 87.1 IP, 7-1, 3.61 era, 1.35 whip, 77 K. So Anibal is around the same GS here and service time as JJ, has 3/4s a year up in ERA pretty much, not as good whip stats, and slightly less Ks. Johnson is a great comp for Anibal. He can’t go over Johnson no matter what, which is good for us. But as we saw with stuff like Francouer making more money than Hermida, despite less stats, this season, the amount of games player factor is pretty strong in determining these. Anibal is going to go up similarly as a result. Mitre on the other hand, has a lot more playing time, but it’s his performance that really shot him down. Anibal has a slightly better career performance, but not as much playing time. So Mitre is also a good comp for the Marlins. Low - $900,000. Lack of playing time and brutal 2007-2009 really hurt him. He does not come back this year. Medium - $1,000,000. His career numbers are better than Mitre, but he’s played in 30 less games. Comes back and throws a few starts. High - $1,250,000. His better stats make up the gap to Mitre’s more playing time. He’s going to need to throw at least 8-9 non horrible starts this year. NEW (October 10) ACTUAL Season line - 16 G, 86 IP, 3.87 era, 4-8, 71 K, 1.51 whip Anibal pitched A LOT more this year than I imagined. And wasn’t totally horrible which is a bonus. Anibal’s career line now stands at 50 games, 282 IP, 18-17, 3.86 era, 1.45 whip, and 207 K. Looking at the other injured starters comps, and a pretty good era year in 2009, I think the playing time and the performance is going to help him a little bit here. Johnson in 2008, came back and threw 87.1 innings at a 3.61 era. I mean Anibal’s whip is crazy, and JJ was 7-1 compared to Anibal’s 4-8, but hey. You can at least make a good faith argument Anibal was effective even if the bases were always loaded. I’m going to move Anibal to Mitre’s level of $1.2 million. Nothing that really effects the bottom line, but he showed something this year and will probably be rewarded for it. --- Ronny Paulino ($440k year 3 tender) 2006 - 129 G, 442 AB, 37 R, 6 HR, 55 RBI, .310/.360/.394 (.754) 2007 - 133 G, 457 AB, 56 R, 11 HR, 55 RBI, .263/.314/.389 (.703) 2008 - 40 G, 118 AB, 8 R, 2 HR, 18 RBI, .212/.277/.305 (.582) 2009 - 52 G, 156 AB, 15 R, 5 HR, 17 RBI, .263/.327/.404 (.731) Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 75 G, 240 AB, 25 R, 7 HR, 30 RBI, .270/.330/.410 (.740) Backup catchers do not really go to arbitration. Mike Napoli (227 AB last year), 39 R, 20 HR, 49 RBI, .960 OPS. Qualified for a Super2, got $2 million. Obviously Paulino is nowhere near this. Chris Snyder (326 AB in 2007), 37 R, 13 HR, 47 RBI, .775 OPS. Got $1.7 in 2008 first year arbitration. Kelly Shoppach got $1.95 this year after murdering baseball last year. Jon Buck got $2.2 for a lot of playing time. Matt Treanor 2007 - 55 G, 171 AB, 16 R, 4 HR, 19 RBI, .269/.357/.392 (.749), received $750,000k by the Marlins in arbitration. Years preceding, about the same amount of playing time. This is an old comp, but one of the best we have. Yorvit Torrealba 2002 - 53 G, 136 AB, 17 R, 2 HR, 14 RBI, .752 OPS 2003 - 66 G, 200 AB, 22 R, 4 HR, 29 RBI, .702 OPS 2004 - 64 G, 172 AB, 19 R, 6 HR, 23 RBI, .709 OPS 2005 salary - $700,000 Keeping with the trend, Olivo (as a non-tender) also got $700,000. Thing with Paulino is, he played A LOT more in the years leading up to this than Torrealba, so those primary starting years with Pittsburgh are probably going to count for something. Not much because the last two seasons Paulino has clearly fallen into backup territory, but it should be a little bump. Low - $750,000. Gets slotted as a backup like the rest of them. His horrific defense keeps him at the Treanor level even though he’s played a little more in year 3. Medium - $880,000. Gets a bump from 2006-2007 playing time. Salary doubles. High - $1,100,000. Gets a really big bump from 2006-2007 playing time, and the additional AB he’s getting in 2009 being in a pretty strict platoon. NEW (October 10th) Paulino did a little better than the season projection line, but this is not going to be a huge arbitration case so no sense in worrying about things. I am going to slot him to $900k just to make it easier in making an expected payroll for anyone. --- Major Curveball with Andrew Miller. By the end of this season he will have about 2.120 days of service time. Which if you have come this far, you understand baseball and know that means he is not arbitration eligible or falls below the Super2 deadline. Since Miller had a MLB contract (he signed this when he was drafted) 2006-2009, the union labor deal says a tendered player cannot be 20% of his previous years salary. I emailed in some help to figure this out, and I’ll just cut the relevant part here as it is extremely self explanatory. Courtesy of Cots. "Miller falls into a fairly rare category because his first pro contract was a Major League deal. You're right that he won't have the service time to qualify for arbitration this off-season, and he's still under club control. However, baseball's labor deal with the union prevents a club from cutting a player's salary by more than 20 percent. The best recent example is Delmon Young of the Twins. After being drafted, he signed a Major League deal for 2004-08, including a $3.7 million signing bonus and a 2008 salary of $700,000. For purposes of calculating annual earnings, MLB spreads the signing bonus over the life of the deal, so Young's 2008 earnings were the $700,000 salary plus a $740,000 share of his bonus, for a total of $1.44 million. His contract expired after the 2008 season, but he didn't have enough ML service to qualify for arbitration. The Twins controlled his rights and chose to cut his salary the full 20 percent allowed. So he got a one-year deal for 2009 at $1.152 million, or 80 percent of his 2008 earnings. If Florida does the same with Miller, he stands to get $1.97 million in 2010, which would be 80 percent of his 2009 earnings of $2,462,500 ($1.575 million salary and $887,500 share of his signing bonus)." Just going to slot him for $2 million. --- Here is a schedule for the future of other players: (all assuming they are up 100% of the time 2010 and beyond) Arbitration Eligibility Post 2010 Likely Super2 - Badenhop, Carroll 4th Year - A. Miller, Tankersley 5th Year - Lindstrom, Nunez, Pinto, Paulino, A. Sanchez 6th Year - Uggla, Hermida, Ross, Nolasco, Johnson, Amezaga FA - Jorge Cantu, Scott Proctor Arbitration Eligibility Post 2011 Likely Super 2 - Vanden Hurk, Coghlan 4th Year - Baker, Volstad, Bonifacio, Meyer, Sanches, Badenhop, Carroll 5th Year - A. Miller, Badenhop, Carroll, Tankersley 6th Year - Lindstrom, Nunez, Pinto, Paulino, A. Sanchez FA - Uggla, Hermida, Ross, Nolasco, Johnson, Amezaga Arbitration Eligibility Post 2012 4th Year - Vanden Hurk, Coghlan, Maybin, G. Sanchez, West, Tucker, and anyone else currently in the minors that plays most of the 2010 season in the bigs, and 2011-2012 with the club. 5th Year - Baker, Volstad, Bonifacio, Meyer, Sanches 6th Year - A. Miller, Badenhop, Carroll, Vanden Hurk, Tankersley FA- Lindstrom, Nunez, Pinto, Paulino, A. Sanchez I'm not sure where Anibal fits in. He won his grievance, which gave him more service time, so I don't know if he'll be a Super2 this year, giving us arbitration rights 2011-2013, or if he gets over the 3 years service time where we'd have him only through 2012. Either here or there, I don't see anyone dying for that information. I have him listed that he gets over 3 this year. --- Feel free to criticize, constructively of course. “patiently awaits somebody saying ‘Yea I dont think he’ll cost that much’ with no support.�
August 9, 200917 yr Author The keep everyone team. Which they are obviously not going to do, but for perspective of what this all adds up to. C John Baker $415,000 1B Jorge Cantu $6,000,000 2B Dan Uggla $8,000,000 3B Gaby Sanchez $405,000 SS Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000 LF Jeremy Hermida $3,500,000 CF Cameron Maybin $405,000 RF Cody Ross $4,200,000 B Emilio Bonifacio $415,000 B Wes Helms $950,000 B Ronny Paulino $880,000 B Brett Carroll $415,000 B Alfredo Amezaga $1,400,000 SP Josh Johnson $5,500,000 SP Ricky Nolasco $4,500,000 SP Andrew Miller $2,000,000 SP Chris Volstad $415,000 SP Anibal Sanchez $1,000,000 RP Matt Lindstrom $1,850,000 RP Leo Nunez $1,300,000 RP Reynel Pinto $850,000 RP Dan Meyer $415,000 RP Rick Vanden Hurk $415,000 RP Brian Sanches $415,000 RP Scott Proctor $1,200,000 $53,845,000
August 9, 200917 yr so pretty much uggla, amezaga, proctor, and hermida are goners unless the payroll expands. i hope we keep cantu but that might be unlikely as well. so what would the total cost of the team be or did i miss it somewhere??
August 9, 200917 yr Author so pretty much uggla, amezaga, proctor, and hermida are goners unless the payroll expands. i hope we keep cantu but that might be unlikely as well. so what would the total cost of the team be or did i miss it somewhere?? Look in post 2 Noticeably missing are guys like Coghlan, West, Badenhop, more than likely Morrison, etc. So payroll can shoot down really, really, quick. Just getting rid of Uggla, Amezaga, Proctor, and Hermida, sheds $12.5 million in salary if they are replaced with club controlled options, which sets payroll RIGHT around $41.3. And there is still payroll to trim after that with Ross, Cantu, Anibal, Lindstrom, etc still on the roster.
August 9, 200917 yr so what does next years team looks like, as far as players go? I hope we keep Cantu and Ross around for a few more years. Would love to bring back NJ
August 9, 200917 yr Awesome post. Just plain awesome. This. Great Job Lou. Yeah he pretty much covered everything.
August 9, 200917 yr If I was GM, I'd pass on Cantu (1B is is only positon now), Trade Uggla, and Maybe keep Hermida for one more year or trade him dependign on how our OF Prospects develop/Contriubute this september. Move Coghlan to 3B, Bonifacio to 2B, Call up Morrison for LF, and Slot Gaby Sanchez at 3B. Lineup Without Herm 1.Maybin CF 2.Coghlan 3B 3.Ramirez SS 4.Gaby Sanchez 1B 5.Logan Morrison LF(Might be pushing it) 6.John Baker C 7.Cody Ross RF 8.Bonifacio 2B 9. Pitcher
August 9, 200917 yr If I was GM, I'd pass on Cantu (1B is is only positon now), Trade Uggla, and Maybe keep Hermida for one more year or trade him dependign on how our OF Prospects develop/Contriubute this september. Move Coghlan to 3B, Bonifacio to 2B, Call up Morrison for LF, and Slot Gaby Sanchez at 3B. Lineup Without Herm 1.Maybin CF 2.Coghlan 3B 3.Ramirez SS 4.Gaby Sanchez 1B 5.Logan Morrison LF(Might be pushing it) 6.John Baker C 7.Cody Ross RF 8.Bonifacio 2B 9. Pitcher i love having a team with no payroll flexibility. that team would be destined to have the worst record in 2010. actually nevermind, the padres would probably be worst
August 9, 200917 yr Good sh!t, Lou. I don't see them keeping Uggla, to much money for someone who can be replaced at a much cheaper price. Also, We need to lock JJ down, ASAP.
August 9, 200917 yr I personally feel you are overestimating what Uggla will get in arbitration. Yes he'll get a pay raise from the $5.25 million I believe he got this past year, but to say he can possibly get $8 million is a little ludicrous. And I believe Chone Figgins is a free agent this upcoming year, I would love to see the Marlins make a serious run at him (doubtful due to a probably nice size contract after an all star season).
August 9, 200917 yr Author My mind changes all the time, but I think this would be a good blueprint. C John Baker $415,000 1B Gaby Sanchez $405,000 2B Chris Coghlan $405,000 3B Jorge Cantu $6,000,000 SS Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000 LF Logan Morrison $405,000 CF Cameron Maybin $405,000 RF Brett Carroll $415,000 B Emilio Bonifacio $415,000 B Wes Helms $950,000 B Ronny Paulino $880,000 B Alfredo Amezaga $1,400,000 B Veteran 1B/OF $1,500,000 SP Josh Johnson $5,500,000 SP Ricky Nolasco $4,500,000 SP Andrew Miller $2,000,000 SP Chris Volstad $415,000 SP Anibal Sanchez $1,000,000 RP Matt Lindstrom $1,850,000 RP Leo Nunez $1,300,000 RP Reynel Pinto $850,000 RP Dan Meyer $415,000 RP Rick Vanden Hurk $415,000 RP Brian Sanches $415,000 RP Burke Badenhop $415,000 $39,670,000 Base Lineup R Maybin CF L Coghlan 2B/LF R Hanley SS R Cantu 3B L Morrion 1B/LF R G. Sanchez 1B L Baker C R Carroll RF / Bonifacio 2B/OF 1. You keep Cantu because he is more than likely a Type A Free Agent after 2010, meaning he brings back two first round draft picks. He is our only 6th year arbitration eligible player above, and 3B is a blackhole if he is not there. Dominguez needs, at minimum, a full season in AAA. Ross is a tough cut, but I don't see payroll going to $45 million. 2. I think a veteran bench is worth more than Cody starting in RF. So I literally think you pay Paulino, Amezaga (or another Veteran Play Everywhere Guy) and a Ross Gload/Wes Helms type a few bucks to stay around. I'd love to see the Marlins try and renegotiate Gload's option, and give him a 2-3 year deal worth $1.5-2 a season. Can't see him getting that on the open market, so maybe he feels comfortable and that he finally belongs somewhere. A really veteran bench is going to be worth it with all of those 1st and 2nd year players plugged into the starting lineup. 3. You keep Anibal (assuming he is healthy the rest of the year), because he's still cheap, and if you can get anything out of him you win big. He's not making enough to where it hurts you. And it protects West somewhat for as long as possible. Notice I have kept every single pitcher except Proctor. That is by design. We can live with the offense if the pitching is excellent. 4. Uggla, Ross, and Hermida all traded for as much young minor league pitching as possible. We don't need MLB parts. We need new stadium parts. Proctor DFA'd AAA/AA Potential Call Ups Hitters - Stanton, Dominguez, Cousins, Petersen, Raynor Pitchers - West, Winters, Trahern, Wood, Leroux, Tucker, Owens, Ceda(?) That looks good to me right now, but we'll see how strong Anibal comes back, RVH finishes the year, if they give up on MIller, etc. A lot of creative ways of getting this team under $40 million, which I am making the unofficial numbers for a realistic team payroll for next year. It'll be easier to judge at the end of the year, but I'm pretty excited to see what we do because payroll is looking pretty solid next year and we should have a better team even with losing some of the FA hitters.
August 9, 200917 yr Author I personally feel you are overestimating what Uggla will get in arbitration. Yes he'll get a pay raise from the $5.25 million I believe he got this past year, but to say he can possibly get $8 million is a little ludicrous. Please read the post, like your algebra class, all work has been shown. THANKS
August 9, 200917 yr If Cantu is going to be a Type A free agent next year, then keeping him is a must.
August 10, 200917 yr I personally feel you are overestimating what Uggla will get in arbitration. Yes he'll get a pay raise from the $5.25 million I believe he got this past year, but to say he can possibly get $8 million is a little ludicrous. Please read the post, like your algebra class, all work has been shown. THANKS You can show your work all you want, I just disagree with it. I mean Uggla's drop in production over the last 2-3 years stands for something in its own right. Utley got the money he did because he showed constant production, Uggla has not done that in certain areas throughout his career.
August 10, 200917 yr Author I personally feel you are overestimating what Uggla will get in arbitration. Yes he'll get a pay raise from the $5.25 million I believe he got this past year, but to say he can possibly get $8 million is a little ludicrous. Please read the post, like your algebra class, all work has been shown. THANKS You can show your work all you want, I just disagree with it. I mean Uggla's drop in production over the last 2-3 years stands for something in its own right. Utley got the money he did because he showed constant production, Uggla has not done that in certain areas throughout his career. Uggla's production has dropped "this" year. "Last" year was his best season statistically. Where is this 2-3 year drop in production. And I showed you a very comparable comp with Atkins with a severe drop in production trend, yet salary still SHOOTING up. And it's not like Dan is that far off. He's going to get close to 30 HR, and decent R/RBI numbers. Utley received a long term contract, that is different than arbitration, and when it comes down to it. Dan is likely to receiver a higher yearly salary as a result, see Dan making $800,000 more than Utley during his fourth year. A player like Atkins is more comparable, as a power non-1B infielder, is very comparable to Uggla, as well as other 2B. Which Uggla is already well ahead of in salary based on his winning arbitration case in 2008. What do you think Uggla is going to get if he goes to arbitration?
August 10, 200917 yr I personally feel you are overestimating what Uggla will get in arbitration. Yes he'll get a pay raise from the $5.25 million I believe he got this past year, but to say he can possibly get $8 million is a little ludicrous. Please read the post, like your algebra class, all work has been shown. THANKS You can show your work all you want, I just disagree with it. I mean Uggla's drop in production over the last 2-3 years stands for something in its own right. Utley got the money he did because he showed constant production, Uggla has not done that in certain areas throughout his career. Uggla's production has dropped "this" year. "Last" year was his best season statistically. Where is this 2-3 year drop in production. And I showed you a very comparable comp with Atkins with a severe drop in production trend, yet salary still SHOOTING up. And it's not like Dan is that far off. He's going to get close to 30 HR, and decent R/RBI numbers. Utley received a long term contract, that is different than arbitration, and when it comes down to it. Dan is likely to receiver a higher yearly salary as a result, see Dan making $800,000 more than Utley during his fourth year. A player like Atkins is more comparable, as a power non-1B infielder, is very comparable to Uggla, as well as other 2B. Which Uggla is already well ahead of in salary based on his winning arbitration case in 2008. What do you think Uggla is going to get if he goes to arbitration? I'd seriously low ball the number. Somewhere between $6.5 to $7 million sounds about right for Uggla based on others credentials and production. I mean Uggla won his case last year because he set career highs in nearly every statistic last season, and his OPS was nearly .100+ better than he ever had in his career. This year his numbers have dropped significantly imo, and his slugging is not what they were in the past. Uggla's key to this team is his power, and a significant drop in power doesn't fair well for him in arbitration.
August 10, 200917 yr My mind changes all the time, but I think this would be a good blueprint. C John Baker $415,000 1B Gaby Sanchez $405,000 2B Chris Coghlan $405,000 3B Jorge Cantu $6,000,000 SS Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000 LF Logan Morrison $405,000 CF Cameron Maybin $405,000 RF Brett Carroll $415,000 B Emilio Bonifacio $415,000 B Wes Helms $950,000 B Ronny Paulino $880,000 B Alfredo Amezaga $1,400,000 B Veteran 1B/OF $1,500,000 SP Josh Johnson $5,500,000 SP Ricky Nolasco $4,500,000 SP Andrew Miller $2,000,000 SP Chris Volstad $415,000 SP Anibal Sanchez $1,000,000 RP Matt Lindstrom $1,850,000 RP Leo Nunez $1,300,000 RP Reynel Pinto $850,000 RP Dan Meyer $415,000 RP Rick Vanden Hurk $415,000 RP Brian Sanches $415,000 RP Burke Badenhop $415,000 $39,670,000 Base Lineup R Maybin CF L Coghlan 2B/LF R Hanley SS R Cantu 3B L Morrion 1B/LF R G. Sanchez 1B L Baker C R Carroll RF / Bonifacio 2B/OF i could live with that roster even though i'd love to keep cody. also i wouldn't mind letting go of amezaga if we needed to shed more payroll
August 10, 200917 yr My mind changes all the time, but I think this would be a good blueprint. C John Baker $415,000 1B Gaby Sanchez $405,000 2B Chris Coghlan $405,000 3B Jorge Cantu $6,000,000 SS Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000 LF Logan Morrison $405,000 CF Cameron Maybin $405,000 RF Brett Carroll $415,000 B Emilio Bonifacio $415,000 B Wes Helms $950,000 B Ronny Paulino $880,000 B Alfredo Amezaga $1,400,000 B Veteran 1B/OF $1,500,000 SP Josh Johnson $5,500,000 SP Ricky Nolasco $4,500,000 SP Andrew Miller $2,000,000 SP Chris Volstad $415,000 SP Anibal Sanchez $1,000,000 RP Matt Lindstrom $1,850,000 RP Leo Nunez $1,300,000 RP Reynel Pinto $850,000 RP Dan Meyer $415,000 RP Rick Vanden Hurk $415,000 RP Brian Sanches $415,000 RP Burke Badenhop $415,000 $39,670,000 Base Lineup R Maybin CF L Coghlan 2B/LF R Hanley SS R Cantu 3B L Morrion 1B/LF R G. Sanchez 1B L Baker C R Carroll RF / Bonifacio 2B/OF i could live with that roster even though i'd love to keep cody. also i wouldn't mind letting go of amezaga if we needed to shed more payroll Not a bad projection, but I have a few issues. First, I, and I don't think anyone in the organization considers Carroll a starting caliber player. He's a fine extra OF, but no more. Also, the only place Bonifacio will be starting next season is 2nd base. He's either at 2nd or he'll take over the Amezaga role full time(which is where he is best suited). Other then that, this looks realistic. Although we don't know what the payroll will be. With the stadium construction underway, I think it is reasonable to assume a payroll somewhere in the $45 million range.
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