I personally feel you are overestimating what Uggla will get in arbitration. Yes he'll get a pay raise from the $5.25 million I believe he got this past year, but to say he can possibly get $8 million is a little ludicrous.

 

Please read the post, like your algebra class, all work has been shown. THANKS

 

 

You can show your work all you want, I just disagree with it. I mean Uggla's drop in production over the last 2-3 years stands for something in its own right. Utley got the money he did because he showed constant production, Uggla has not done that in certain areas throughout his career.

 

Looks up---

I personally feel you are overestimating what Uggla will get in arbitration. Yes he'll get a pay raise from the $5.25 million I believe he got this past year, but to say he can possibly get $8 million is a little ludicrous.

 

Please read the post, like your algebra class, all work has been shown. THANKS

 

 

You can show your work all you want, I just disagree with it. I mean Uggla's drop in production over the last 2-3 years stands for something in its own right. Utley got the money he did because he showed constant production, Uggla has not done that in certain areas throughout his career.

 

Looks up---

 

 

My bad bro. But he hasn't produced the way we would've hoped this year. And the numbers last season are skewed by his first half performance (aka Jeremy Hermida's numbers in 2007 being skewed because of 2nd half numbers). The 2007 Uggla seems to be the best indicator of what he will be the rest of his career, which is good, but I believe Chris Coghlan has more to offer us as a leadoff man than Uggla has to provide in the middle of the lineup, especially with guys with power like Stanton and Morrison close to MLB ready, and us lacking any real top of the lineup guys in the future (Maybin the exception).

If Cantu is going to be a Type A free agent next year, then keeping him is a must.

 

 

I agree. Where does Cody project as far as Type A/B?

 

Especially considering the stadium deal, I would hope that we can be signing the best players available, or at least choosing players where price is less of a concern than talent.

If Cantu is going to be a Type A free agent next year, then keeping him is a must.

 

 

I agree. Where does Cody project as far as Type A/B?

 

Especially considering the stadium deal, I would hope that we can be signing the best players available, or at least choosing players where price is less of a concern than talent.

Cody is entering 5th year arbitration, not 6th year arbitration like Cantu. So the answer to your question doesn't really matter. Cody won't be a free agent after 2010. He would probably be a Type A after starting predominantly for 2 years though.

 

I'd love to keep him, but the magic question is payroll and how much do we have.

I personally feel you are overestimating what Uggla will get in arbitration. Yes he'll get a pay raise from the $5.25 million I believe he got this past year, but to say he can possibly get $8 million is a little ludicrous.

 

Please read the post, like your algebra class, all work has been shown. THANKS

 

 

You can show your work all you want, I just disagree with it. I mean Uggla's drop in production over the last 2-3 years stands for something in its own right. Utley got the money he did because he showed constant production, Uggla has not done that in certain areas throughout his career.

Uggla's production has dropped "this" year. "Last" year was his best season statistically. Where is this 2-3 year drop in production. And I showed you a very comparable comp with Atkins with a severe drop in production trend, yet salary still SHOOTING up. And it's not like Dan is that far off. He's going to get close to 30 HR, and decent R/RBI numbers.

 

Utley received a long term contract, that is different than arbitration, and when it comes down to it. Dan is likely to receiver a higher yearly salary as a result, see Dan making $800,000 more than Utley during his fourth year. A player like Atkins is more comparable, as a power non-1B infielder, is very comparable to Uggla, as well as other 2B. Which Uggla is already well ahead of in salary based on his winning arbitration case in 2008.

 

What do you think Uggla is going to get if he goes to arbitration?

 

 

I'd seriously low ball the number. Somewhere between $6.5 to $7 million sounds about right for Uggla based on others credentials and production. I mean Uggla won his case last year because he set career highs in nearly every statistic last season, and his OPS was nearly .100+ better than he ever had in his career. This year his numbers have dropped significantly imo, and his slugging is not what they were in the past. Uggla's key to this team is his power, and a significant drop in power doesn't fair well for him in arbitration.

Uggla is on pace for 30 HR this year. His other seasons have been 27, 31, and 32. So he's hitting less doubles. The arbiter - a non baseball person - is not going to care.

 

You have a very weak argument, and until you can distinguish Atkins and Utley, you really have no substance to stand on. Uggla is not taking a $1.2 (20%ish) raise to get to 6.5 mil. At minimum, it's going to be a 40% raise, which is the $7.4 low I have for him.

 

And neither here not there, $7, $7.5, $8, $8.5..... Uggla has priced himself off the team at any of these salaries. He's gone. 100%. Unless Loria tells Beinfest he can spend $50 million.

My mind changes all the time, but I think this would be a good blueprint.

 

Hasn't the front office shown more of a willingness to rely on rookie pitchers than rookie batters. Think your estimate of 4.5 rookie batters is rather generous. Expect them to keep atleast one of Ross/Hermida/Uggla and piecemeal the bullpen

The keep everyone team. Which they are obviously not going to do, but for perspective of what this all adds up to.

 

C John Baker $415,000

1B Jorge Cantu $6,000,000

2B Dan Uggla $8,000,000

3B Gaby Sanchez $405,000

SS Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000

LF Jeremy Hermida $3,500,000

CF Cameron Maybin $405,000

RF Cody Ross $4,200,000

B Emilio Bonifacio $415,000

B Wes Helms $950,000

B Ronny Paulino $880,000

B Brett Carroll $415,000

B Alfredo Amezaga $1,400,000

 

SP Josh Johnson $5,500,000

SP Ricky Nolasco $4,500,000

SP Andrew Miller $2,000,000

SP Chris Volstad $415,000

SP Anibal Sanchez $1,000,000

RP Matt Lindstrom $1,850,000

RP Leo Nunez $1,300,000

RP Reynel Pinto $850,000

RP Dan Meyer $415,000

RP Rick Vanden Hurk $415,000

RP Brian Sanches $415,000

RP Scott Proctor $1,200,000

 

$53,845,000

 

 

Great work Lou. Looking down the first 7 or 8 pitchers on your list Volstad is a hell of a good #3 bargain for the Marlins at 1/10th- 1/12th the price of our #1 and #2. How many years before a guy is arb eligible then a Free agent?

^^

 

google.com

 

 

Sorry, couldn't resist.

My mind changes all the time, but I think this would be a good blueprint.

 

Hasn't the front office shown more of a willingness to rely on rookie pitchers than rookie batters. Think your estimate of 4.5 rookie batters is rather generous. Expect them to keep atleast one of Ross/Hermida/Uggla and piecemeal the bullpen

I know the situation is a bit different but we did have 6 rookies in our opening day lineup a few seasons ago.

 

That said, I believe that lineup only has 2 rookies and 1 rookie-like player in Maybin. I don't think Carroll will be a starter next year though and I'd expect us to keep 1 of Hermida/Cody/Uggla as well.

Hopefully Cody.

Hopefully Cody.

 

That'd be my guess. I think Uggla's a goner and I'm not sure if the FO will roll with another season of Hermida.

My mind changes all the time, but I think this would be a good blueprint.

 

Hasn't the front office shown more of a willingness to rely on rookie pitchers than rookie batters. Think your estimate of 4.5 rookie batters is rather generous. Expect them to keep atleast one of Ross/Hermida/Uggla and piecemeal the bullpen

I know the situation is a bit different but we did have 6 rookies in our opening day lineup a few seasons ago.

 

That said, I believe that lineup only has 2 rookies and 1 rookie-like player in Maybin. I don't think Carroll will be a starter next year though and I'd expect us to keep 1 of Hermida/Cody/Uggla as well.

If we get rid of Uggla, Cantu and Hermida (plus possibly Cody), it's going to be one powerless offense. Kinda like Cuba during peak hours.

My mind changes all the time, but I think this would be a good blueprint.

 

Hasn't the front office shown more of a willingness to rely on rookie pitchers than rookie batters. Think your estimate of 4.5 rookie batters is rather generous. Expect them to keep atleast one of Ross/Hermida/Uggla and piecemeal the bullpen

Sure, but you have to acknowledge that our farm system has turned a 180 and now probably 8 of our top 10 prospects are hitters that are mostly in the upper ranks. Unlike in previous years where we have been filled with possible pitching options in the minors. It's just a matter of time until the team is turned over to the young bats. I don't think there ever will be an ideal way to break them all in slowly. Ideally, they do exactly what you say. Keep Hanley, Cantu (who really is the must), and then one of the outfielders - ideally Ross, maybe Hermida - and then roll out the rest of the lineup around Baker and Coghlan. That team is going to cost over $40 million though. What's payroll? It's the major question.

 

They were very creative this year and got Gload for the minimum. There's nothing stopping them from doing the same type of deal with another veteran bat like that, and let's say they do it twice with a "cheaper amezaga." If they do that - and let's jettison Anibal, the injury risk, - from the picture, that's cutting a few million in salary and helping out. Like I said somewhere in this, if $40 million is the estimate (and I acknowledge I'm roundball-making up this level), there are a lot of creative ways to get under it. I think we have a lot of options going forward, and it's going to be interesting to see what they do.

 

First thing though, gotta end the season. See how Anibal, Lindstrom, Cantu, Ross, etc all finish. They control their own fates as far as I can tell, and the ones who flame out, the money just goes elsewhere.

My mind changes all the time, but I think this would be a good blueprint.

 

Hasn't the front office shown more of a willingness to rely on rookie pitchers than rookie batters. Think your estimate of 4.5 rookie batters is rather generous. Expect them to keep atleast one of Ross/Hermida/Uggla and piecemeal the bullpen

I know the situation is a bit different but we did have 6 rookies in our opening day lineup a few seasons ago.

 

That said, I believe that lineup only has 2 rookies and 1 rookie-like player in Maybin. I don't think Carroll will be a starter next year though and I'd expect us to keep 1 of Hermida/Cody/Uggla as well.

If we get rid of Uggla, Cantu and Hermida (plus possibly Cody), it's going to be one powerless offense. Kinda like Cuba during peak hours.

Yes, but it's not going to kill us.

 

First, I'm assuming Hanley (.950), Coghlan (.750+), and Baker (.775+), hit the same level of offense (at least) next season. Let's say they keep Cantu, and we assume he hits the same .755-.800 also. Cool. So we have 4 other starters.

 

Ugglas hitting .800 this year, career .825

Bonifacio is hitting. 600, Nick Johnson let's just say .850. This averages to wait, a .650?

Hermida is hitting .725

Ross is hitting .800

 

Averaging all this together, and very roundball, this is like a cumulative .750-.760 OPS. .775 tops. Maybe I'm idealistic, but I'm very confident Morrison, Maybin, G. Sanchez, and Carroll could cumulatively average a .750 OPS as rookies. This puts our offense at the same basic level as this year, and if Maybin and Morrison are "all that," as rookies, we even have a chance to improve.

 

I'm just not worried about the offense anyway we do it. The cost savings for this team is clearly in the arbitration bats based on what we have in the minors, so we should literally keep all the pitching and see what happens. I'd say Cantu is a must keep. If Loria allows a low $40 million payroll, Cody stays too. That's it.

Great work Lou. Looking down the first 7 or 8 pitchers on your list Volstad is a hell of a good #3 bargain for the Marlins at 1/10th- 1/12th the price of our #1 and #2. How many years before a guy is arb eligible then a Free agent?

 

A club has a player club controlled for 3 years. A year is not a calender year, it is a "service time" year of how many days a player is on a MLB roster. It gets very complicated so I'll leave it at that, but a quick example, think about Coghlan. He will not have a full year in 2009 because he came up in mid-may. He will get say 4/5ths a year of service time. Once he passes 3 years, he goes to the next phase. There are a lot of "tricks" a front office can play at keeping a guy below 3 years service time. See the Marlins keeping Maybin in AAA the entire summer, which is going to have a side effect of Maybin not becoming arbitration eligible in 2012, but 2013.

 

A club has arbitration rates on a players for years 4-6. This is where guys start getting expensive, as they can argue other player's salaries in negotiating their own.

 

When a player reaches over 6 years of service time, free agency.

Lou, you are a freak. That was an awesome read and I've learnt so much about baseball from your posts, great job.

 

What do you think it would cost to re-sign Nick Johnson to a 1-year deal based on his performance? It's unlikely that he'd take a 1-year deal, but I'm just curious as to what he'd cost if he wanted to go that route. I'm thinking keeping NJ / Cantu as our corner infielders, whilst getting rid of Hermida / Uggla to free up payroll, could be worth it ... with Dominguez / Logan to replace NJ / Cantu in 2011.

if cody leaves i'm becoming a fan of whatever team he's on. peace out marlins

if cody leaves i'm becoming a fan of whatever team he's on. peace out marlins

 

 

 

That's a joke, right?

My mind changes all the time, but I think this would be a good blueprint.

 

Hasn't the front office shown more of a willingness to rely on rookie pitchers than rookie batters. Think your estimate of 4.5 rookie batters is rather generous. Expect them to keep atleast one of Ross/Hermida/Uggla and piecemeal the bullpen

I know the situation is a bit different but we did have 6 rookies in our opening day lineup a few seasons ago.

 

That said, I believe that lineup only has 2 rookies and 1 rookie-like player in Maybin. I don't think Carroll will be a starter next year though and I'd expect us to keep 1 of Hermida/Cody/Uggla as well.

I was counting Sanchez as a rookie with Maybin, and Couglan as the rookie-like player

Some people have far too much time on their hands.

Some people have far too much time on their hands.

 

 

That's the insult you come up with, when someone has spent clearly a lot of time to educate all of us? At least Lou backs up his posts with factual statements and figures unlike some people here.

 

There's no need to even make a comment like that, dude.

 

Don't worry Lou, a lot of us appreciate what you've done, even if others will rubbish it.

My mind changes all the time, but I think this would be a good blueprint.

 

Hasn't the front office shown more of a willingness to rely on rookie pitchers than rookie batters. Think your estimate of 4.5 rookie batters is rather generous. Expect them to keep atleast one of Ross/Hermida/Uggla and piecemeal the bullpen

I know the situation is a bit different but we did have 6 rookies in our opening day lineup a few seasons ago.

 

That said, I believe that lineup only has 2 rookies and 1 rookie-like player in Maybin. I don't think Carroll will be a starter next year though and I'd expect us to keep 1 of Hermida/Cody/Uggla as well.

I was counting Sanchez as a rookie with Maybin, and Couglan as the rookie-like player

That's being quite liberal with the term rookie. I mean CC has been on the team since the beginning of May and is probably going to end the season with around 500 PA. There won't be anything rookie about him.

Lou, you are a freak. That was an awesome read and I've learnt so much about baseball from your posts, great job.

 

What do you think it would cost to re-sign Nick Johnson to a 1-year deal based on his performance? It's unlikely that he'd take a 1-year deal, but I'm just curious as to what he'd cost if he wanted to go that route. I'm thinking keeping NJ / Cantu as our corner infielders, whilst getting rid of Hermida / Uggla to free up payroll, could be worth it ... with Dominguez / Logan to replace NJ / Cantu in 2011.

 

It's hard to predict free agency as clubs can do whatever they want. Abreu signed a $5 million 1 year deal this offseason. Adam Dunn 2 years, $20 million. Russell Branyan $1.4 million. Juan Rivera 3 years $12.75 million. Giambi $5.25 million (including buyout). Casey Blake 3/$17.5 million. Who knows if teams still feel the economy is keeping them down and they'll all be 'cheaper' across the board.

 

Making a wild guess, Johnson doesn't hit bombs, and isn't a guy a team would want longterm because of that and his injury history. He is still pretty good though with that .400+ OBP so someone is going to value him decently. I bet Johnson would want a 3-4 year deal averaging $6+ a year, but I just don't see that out there. You'd imagine somebody eventually steps up and gives Johnson that second year guaranteed for $5-6 a year. So I'd say maybe two years, $10-12 million? Totally could be wrong but that's where I'd probably guess right now in August. Like you said, it's unlikely he takes a 1 year deal before the week Spring Training starts.

I don't see how this team could replace Ross, Hermida, and Uggla with rookies and expect to make any sort of improvement. The fact is that as good as rookies can be (and we've had our share of outstanding rookies, including Coghlan) it is hard to predict their performance. Statistically speaking, it is likely that only one of those replacements will end up out-producing those current three players next year. Of course, anything is possible, but you repeat this move 150 times over and on average the offense will be downgraded.

 

If I were the FO, I'd keep Ross for sure. He's trending up in his career and I think he's a very very solid player. I know his OPS is just decent (low .800s), but he provides extremely solid defense and I think his presence on the team really makes a difference. I love seeing his routes in the outfield - he runs in a straight line towards the spot the ball will land.

 

Hermida should be a goner if the FO can get a fair deal for him. I think Hermida has all the innate and physical tools to be a .300 hitter, but I think he's not the smartest player, both at the plate and in the field. When I am at games, I hate seeing Hermida take routes to the ball. His route is like a zig zag, and I get the feeling he's not really sure where the ball will land. At the plate, he seems incapable of making adjustments. His 2007 season was outstanding, but the league made the necessary adjustments against him and he was unable to respond appropriately. If he could make the proper adjustments, he could be a perrennial .300 hitter. We see other rookies and young players on our team make adjustments very quickly - Hanley (not a fair comparison since Hanley is a superstar), Coghlan, Willingham, Ross, etc. It almost feels like he doesn't realize pitchers have made adjustments. That he gets first pitch fastball strikes far more often now than before, and yet he just sits there and takes first pitch called strikes. I think he's not that smart. Let's send him off somewhere else.

 

Uggla can easily be replaced by Coghlin. I think Uggla realizes his value is with the long ball, so he tends to swing for the fences nearly every at bat. If he could go with the flow a bit more he'd be more successful overall. And I think he realizes this, but he wants the long ball to be his forte. For a second baseman, that kind of production will earn him some real money. He's a good player, but he's not going to change and he will probably not improve very much.

 

The questions are: who replaces Coghlin in LF and who replaces Hermida in RF? Seems like Maybin is ready to take over in CF - he's hitting .328/.415/.471 in AAA as a 22 year old. His slugging is a bit low, but he's doing very well overall. The power will come eventually. So that moves Ross over to RF. Who replaces Coghlin in LF? I am not sure we have anyone that is ready to step it up in LF.

 

We know Mike Stanton is a special prospect. He's only hitting .239/.322/.469 in AA. Sure, he's very young... only 19. This kid is going to be a monster. But I am not sure he'll be ready for prime time by the start of next season. Even if he is, we'll probably see Miggy 2003 type production, which is to say productive but not explosive. Maybe the AZ Fall League or a winter league somewhere in Latin America will speed up his progress.

 

We know Johnson will walk at the end of the season - so who replaces him? Is Logan Morrison ready for prime time? Again - AZ fall league would do him wonders.

 

My point is simple: don't expect to see an improved team if you move Uggla, Hermida, Ross, and lose Johnson and replace ALL OF THEM with rookies. We have a capable replacement for Uggla and a replacement in the outfield for Hermida (Maybin). We cannot be so sure of our replacements for the other two guys. So, just keep the best of the bunch. In this case, I am quite positive Ross is the man. I'd bat him behind Cantu. So, Coghlin, Baker, Hanley, Cantu and Ross would be my first five hitters. Then we put Maybin in the sixth spot. The seventh and eighth sports are going to be black holes for us.

 

Now, whoever thinks this team can be as good as it is if it loses Uggla, Hermida, Ross, Johnson AND Cantu is mistaken. That would mean losing way too much production.

 

If the Marlins can afford a $50 million payroll, I'd keep Uggla. I am not sure why everyone here assumes the Marlins have to stay at a payroll in the low 40s. A $50 million payroll is still very very low.

My mind changes all the time, but I think this would be a good blueprint.

 

Hasn't the front office shown more of a willingness to rely on rookie pitchers than rookie batters. Think your estimate of 4.5 rookie batters is rather generous. Expect them to keep atleast one of Ross/Hermida/Uggla and piecemeal the bullpen

I know the situation is a bit different but we did have 6 rookies in our opening day lineup a few seasons ago.

 

That said, I believe that lineup only has 2 rookies and 1 rookie-like player in Maybin. I don't think Carroll will be a starter next year though and I'd expect us to keep 1 of Hermida/Cody/Uggla as well.

If we get rid of Uggla, Cantu and Hermida (plus possibly Cody), it's going to be one powerless offense. Kinda like Cuba during peak hours.

Yes, but it's not going to kill us.

 

First, I'm assuming Hanley (.950), Coghlan (.750+), and Baker (.775+), hit the same level of offense (at least) next season. Let's say they keep Cantu, and we assume he hits the same .755-.800 also. Cool. So we have 4 other starters.

 

Ugglas hitting .800 this year, career .825

Bonifacio is hitting. 600, Nick Johnson let's just say .850. This averages to wait, a .650?

Hermida is hitting .725

Ross is hitting .800

 

Averaging all this together, and very roundball, this is like a cumulative .750-.760 OPS. .775 tops. Maybe I'm idealistic, but I'm very confident Morrison, Maybin, G. Sanchez, and Carroll could cumulatively average a .750 OPS as rookies. This puts our offense at the same basic level as this year, and if Maybin and Morrison are "all that," as rookies, we even have a chance to improve.

 

I'm just not worried about the offense anyway we do it. The cost savings for this team is clearly in the arbitration bats based on what we have in the minors, so we should literally keep all the pitching and see what happens. I'd say Cantu is a must keep. If Loria allows a low $40 million payroll, Cody stays too. That's it.

Lou, I'm down with your analysis, but you never know with rookies, man. You can't put too much faith on them because they might, or might not pan out right away. Look at Maybin this year. I bet he was going to hit 16 hrs and look where he is now lol.

And I know that at the end of the day it's about $$$, so we might have to play them anyways, but hopefully Loria opens up the wallet to keep at least a couple of those guys (Ross and Cantu like you said). I think I'd also keep Johnson over Uggla, as much as it hurts me to say, if he is going to keep hitting 230...