September 21, 200916 yr Going to have massive payroll problems in 2011 Bob. C John Baker $420,000 1B Logan Morrison $420,000 2B Chris Coghlan $410,000 3B Matt Dominguez $410,000 SS Hanley Ramirez $11,000,000 LF Milton Bradley $12,000,000 < - Basically quarter of payroll right here CF Cameron Maybin $420,000 RF Mike Stanton $410,000 B Emilio Bonifacio $420,000 B Brett Hayes $410,000 B Bryan Petersen $410,000 B Gaby Sanchez $420,000 B “Veteran Bat� $750,000 SP Josh Johnson $8,000,000 SP Ricky Nolasco $7,500,000 SP Chris Volstad $420,000 SP Andrew Miller $4,500,000 SP Sean West $420,000 RP Ryan Tucker $410,000 RP Rick Vanden Hurk $420,000 RP Dan Meyer $420,000 RP Tim Wood $420,000 RP Chris Leroux $420,000 RP Voss/Jennings $410,000 RP Whoever $410,000 $51,650,000 And this is a best case scenario sort of thing with the entire AA class of Morrison, Dominguez, Stanton, Petersen, and an entire CC pen, needing to be productive. I like Bradley when he's healthy and happy, but we're going to be shooting ourselves in the foot if we can afford basically 5 players and everyone else needs to be club controlled. Got to spread the wealth around at least a little bit even if the big time youth movement is coming. -- Anyways, the real question for 2010 is payroll. Is payroll going to be $40 million, or closer to $50 million. If it's $40, the best team is keeping Ross and Cantu, and trading away Uggla, Hermida, Nunez, and Anibal. If they have $50 million, they could keep Uggla, Nunez, and maybe Anibal as well.
September 21, 200916 yr Oh, believe me, I want Nick Johnson to stay as well. He's definitely my priority to stay as well. I hope it happens because Loria obviously likes him. I suppose another concern with dealing Uggla is that it increases the probability than Bonifacio receives more playing time. The Marlins would be setting themselves up to have Coghlan and Bonifacio playing in the infield. I wish the Marlins could at least be allowing Coghlan to be fielding some games at third this month or perhaps be giving Gaby Sanchez a bunch of ABs to see if he could hit at this level and possibly replace Bonifacio. I really wish the Marlins threw in the towel weeks ago and shut down Josh Johnson (and possibly Nolasco) and went to a rotation of West-Volstad-Miller-Vanden Hurk-Sanchez to test the waters for next year more thoroughly. I think a huge money hog will be paying Miller's contract, which I suppose will be unavoidable. I'm thankful that hasn't happened. Why? Johnson has shown signs of tiredness in his last couple of starts and is starting to tail off. If the Marlins are even remotely considering signing him to a long term deal, it is certainly wise to be cautious with his arm. The Marlins have been out of the race for weeks now. Their playoff hopes over that period have been entirely pegged upon 3-4 other teams tanking entirely so that the Marlins could gain ground by playing acceptable baseball. In order to qualify for the playoffs the Marlins would have realistically needed to win 20+ games this month alone. I believe the franchise record for wins in a month is something like 18 or 19 set by the 1997 club. He's showing signs of fatigue b/c he's never gone this many innings, before, at this level. I'd like to see JJ go over 200 innings. In my opinion, the more innings you throw, the better you get. If he's just shutdown, wouldn't you think he'd go through the same problems next year?
September 21, 200916 yr You can afford either Uggla or Johnson and Ross, in my opinion. In that type of scenario, it's a no brainer. Either way, I'm a really, really, really big fan of Nick Johnson being in a Marlins uniform next season. Of all of our arbitration eligible or free agent bats (more than Cantu, Ross, Uggla, or Hermida.), he's the one I want most. Value-wise? I'd say Uggla has the most value out of that group. Of course we could probably get more for Uggla via trade, but if we're picking just to keep the best player from the group, his name is Dan Uggla. I'd also keep Cody Ross over Nick Johnson, as well, considering the power he brings + his ability to play all 3 OF positions (although, this is less of a problem, if you're bringing in a Milton Bradley). Nick Johnson's going to make probably 3 million less than Uggla will next season. I like his power for a 2B, obviously, but I think NJ is going to outperform him next year. You want to go with the guy at the defensive position who can hit, unless you're only in house options to replace either the 2nd baseman or the 3rd baseman (assuming the loss of NJ means we keep Cantu, and I think it has to). I'm not sure I'm explaining this well, let me try again. If we keep Uggla and lose NJ and Cantu (keeping Uggla severely limits what we can do): 1B Logan 2B Uggla SS Hanley 3B Boner LF Coghlan CF Cam RF Cody If we keep NJ and lose Cantu and Uggla: 1B NJ 2B Coghlan SS Hanley 3B Boner LF Logan (??) CF Cam RF Cody Since everything will come from in house to replace whoever we lose, you don't really gain anything by keeping Uggla over Johnson. If anything, you lose flexibility with payroll and you lose the potential to improve your infield defense (sticking Cogs at 3rd and Boner at 2nd probably improves the infield quite a bit). I don't see Gaby getting a chance to start next year, so Boner being back in the lineup is almost guaranteed. This is my concern, and why I'm very, very interesting in having a couple of OBP hogs in the lineup. Yeah, you lose the slugging, but I'm less concerned about that than I am about improving our overall production (or at least mitigating what are almost certainly going to be some steps back). We survived the loss of Jake's slugging. It's basically the same team. Also...I doubt Bonifacio is our starting 3B next year, regardless of whether or not we sign Cantu.
September 22, 200916 yr I can be wrong and I may have said this before but I just can't see a chronic walking wounded like Johnson being paid big buck and probably on a multi-year deal (that some other teams may be willing to offer him) when so worried about the potential for injury that the Marlins jettisoned Josh Willingham without a thought. We just saw that when Johnson is hurt and on the the DL, even after returning his rehab time seems inordinately long which to me significantly cuts his worth to a low budget team like the Marlins where depth is going to be an issue for some years more.
September 22, 200916 yr He'd never had a fulltime regular season in a year. Also, he always had a trouble in clubhouse, even against crowd. Bradley = Totally pathetic, i think.
September 22, 200916 yr He'd never had a fulltime regular season in a year. Also, he always had a trouble in clubhouse, even against crowd. Bradley = Totally pathetic, i think. This is actually a good point. He's never played more than 126 games in a single season.
September 22, 200916 yr I can be wrong and I may have said this before but I just can't see a chronic walking wounded like Johnson being paid big buck and probably on a multi-year deal (that some other teams may be willing to offer him) when so worried about the potential for injury that the Marlins jettisoned Josh Willingham without a thought. We just saw that when Johnson is hurt and on the the DL, even after returning his rehab time seems inordinately long which to me significantly cuts his worth to a low budget team like the Marlins where depth is going to be an issue for some years more. This. Also, didn't he say he wanted to try his luck in free agency this offseason? I thought I'd read that somewhere. I like what he adds to the team but I feel he is much too injury prone for the Marlins to hand him some of our sparse monies.
September 22, 200916 yr Oh, believe me, I want Nick Johnson to stay as well. He's definitely my priority to stay as well. I hope it happens because Loria obviously likes him. I suppose another concern with dealing Uggla is that it increases the probability than Bonifacio receives more playing time. The Marlins would be setting themselves up to have Coghlan and Bonifacio playing in the infield. I wish the Marlins could at least be allowing Coghlan to be fielding some games at third this month or perhaps be giving Gaby Sanchez a bunch of ABs to see if he could hit at this level and possibly replace Bonifacio. I really wish the Marlins threw in the towel weeks ago and shut down Josh Johnson (and possibly Nolasco) and went to a rotation of West-Volstad-Miller-Vanden Hurk-Sanchez to test the waters for next year more thoroughly. I think a huge money hog will be paying Miller's contract, which I suppose will be unavoidable. I'm thankful that hasn't happened. Why? Johnson has shown signs of tiredness in his last couple of starts and is starting to tail off. If the Marlins are even remotely considering signing him to a long term deal, it is certainly wise to be cautious with his arm. The Marlins have been out of the race for weeks now. Their playoff hopes over that period have been entirely pegged upon 3-4 other teams tanking entirely so that the Marlins could gain ground by playing acceptable baseball. In order to qualify for the playoffs the Marlins would have realistically needed to win 20+ games this month alone. I believe the franchise record for wins in a month is something like 18 or 19 set by the 1997 club. He's showing signs of fatigue b/c he's never gone this many innings, before, at this level. I'd like to see JJ go over 200 innings. In my opinion, the more innings you throw, the better you get. If he's just shutdown, wouldn't you think he'd go through the same problems next year? No. Numerous arms have been killed by being overworked at a young age. I think the rule of thumb is to never increase the yearly innings workload by more that 50 IP. Johnson threw 116 in 2008 (combined) and has already had an elbow injury at a young age.
September 22, 200916 yr I can be wrong and I may have said this before but I just can't see a chronic walking wounded like Johnson being paid big buck and probably on a multi-year deal (that some other teams may be willing to offer him) when so worried about the potential for injury that the Marlins jettisoned Josh Willingham without a thought. We just saw that when Johnson is hurt and on the the DL, even after returning his rehab time seems inordinately long which to me significantly cuts his worth to a low budget team like the Marlins where depth is going to be an issue for some years more. Agree completely. Love to gamble on him with a huge payroll, not worth it for us. We also get Type B compensation if we let him walk. So the "trade" is going to be kind of cool and look better when its Nick Johnson + whoever pick 70ish in the draft is for Aaron Thompson. Good move, just not a long term one.
September 22, 200916 yr Oh, believe me, I want Nick Johnson to stay as well. He's definitely my priority to stay as well. I hope it happens because Loria obviously likes him. I suppose another concern with dealing Uggla is that it increases the probability than Bonifacio receives more playing time. The Marlins would be setting themselves up to have Coghlan and Bonifacio playing in the infield. I wish the Marlins could at least be allowing Coghlan to be fielding some games at third this month or perhaps be giving Gaby Sanchez a bunch of ABs to see if he could hit at this level and possibly replace Bonifacio. I really wish the Marlins threw in the towel weeks ago and shut down Josh Johnson (and possibly Nolasco) and went to a rotation of West-Volstad-Miller-Vanden Hurk-Sanchez to test the waters for next year more thoroughly. I think a huge money hog will be paying Miller's contract, which I suppose will be unavoidable. I'm thankful that hasn't happened. Why? Johnson has shown signs of tiredness in his last couple of starts and is starting to tail off. If the Marlins are even remotely considering signing him to a long term deal, it is certainly wise to be cautious with his arm. The Marlins have been out of the race for weeks now. Their playoff hopes over that period have been entirely pegged upon 3-4 other teams tanking entirely so that the Marlins could gain ground by playing acceptable baseball. In order to qualify for the playoffs the Marlins would have realistically needed to win 20+ games this month alone. I believe the franchise record for wins in a month is something like 18 or 19 set by the 1997 club. He's showing signs of fatigue b/c he's never gone this many innings, before, at this level. I'd like to see JJ go over 200 innings. In my opinion, the more innings you throw, the better you get. If he's just shutdown, wouldn't you think he'd go through the same problems next year? No. Numerous arms have been killed by being overworked at a young age. I think the rule of thumb is to never increase the yearly innings workload by more that 50 IP. Johnson threw 116 in 2008 (combined) and has already had an elbow injury at a young age. If he doesn't ever get to the 200+ inning mark, how do you expect the ACE to get used to the workload? This is like what the Yankees are doing with Joba Chamberlain. I think it's pretty silly.
September 22, 200916 yr I would say 50 is to high. I'd say 20-30. I think perfection for a young starter is 120-140-160-180-200 innings a year, years 1-5 after draft. If they can even handle that by performance. That's how you get an ACE up to 200. You build them up. So next year, I'd like to see James throw 120 innings in short season/Greensboro. The notion the more you throw, the better you get is insane. These guys are still growing into their bodies, throw harder, and at more insane arm angles than they did in the 50s and 60s. They need to grow up. The Cubs (and his college coach. We can spread the blame) ruined Mark Prior. Johnson is also coming off a tommy john. Why tempt fate? Johnson threw 117 last year. I'd have cut him off around 180 innings this year. That would be a HUGE gain, but that would be a dozen innings more than his pre-injury total. I think that's a realistic baseline. Having JJ throw 215 this year, does nothing for him longterm. Joba has thrown 19 - 120 20 - 90 21 - 115 22 - 100 23 - 143 and counting This is really bad. He's going to get at least 20 more innings this year, and that's an enormous jump for someone who has never thrown that many before. You'd hope to get him 180 innings in 2010 (including playoffs), and then maybe then you take away the rules if he is completely healthy all of 2010. Very, very, very, few pitchers can pull it off like Verlander and Felix Hernandex. Look at Bonderman. They pitched him into the ground and he may be done.
September 22, 200916 yr If he doesn't ever get to the 200+ inning mark, how do you expect the ACE to get used to the workload? This is like what the Yankees are doing with Joba Chamberlain. I think it's pretty silly. You go up progressively. You don't say "ok, he's 1 inning over, you shut him down." Countless studies have shown that increasing a workload by a good portion makes pitches a lot more susceptible to injuries. I mean, it has less to do with innings but rather actual pitches but IP is a lot easier to track
September 22, 200916 yr If he doesn't ever get to the 200+ inning mark, how do you expect the ACE to get used to the workload? This is like what the Yankees are doing with Joba Chamberlain. I think it's pretty silly. Johnson has thrown over DOUBLE the amount of pitches he threw last year. For someone coming off of major surgery, he shouldn't be throwing 3,000+ pitches in a season. You like to raise the amount as he goes along, but not by that much.
September 22, 200916 yr Boby Cox admits to having ruined Steve Avery because he increased his IP too sharply.
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