Erick Posted September 16, 2010 Share Posted September 16, 2010 Hey everyone, this is Didier Morais filling in for Manny. Here are a few tidbits going into tonight's Marlins-Phillies game. Clay Hensley knows he doesn’t look that part of Major League closer. Aside from his atypical 5-foot-11 height, the Marlins pitcher doesn’t deliver flamethrowing pitches, opting instead to terrorize batters with breaking ball. But the unconventional formula is working for Hensley. Since inheriting the closing job from Leo Nunez on Sept. 4, the righty has subdued opposing hitters, going 3-for-3 in save opportunities. And that’s why Marlins manager Edwin Rodriguez relishes the opportunity to go against the grain. “We have the mentality now that [a closer] has to have 95 plus to be a closer, but I’ve never bought into that,� Rodriguez said. “We have seen so many guys close in games and they don’t 90 plus, but they know how to pitch. They locate it and throw strikes and maybe Hensley is one of them. The old fashioned way.� And Hensley doesn’t mind getting by in that manner. Considering he came into spring training as an aspiring starter, he’s frequently proved his ability to make adjustments throughout the season. But those duties may carry on even longer. Hensley, who is signed to a one-year contract, said he could envision himself as a long-term closer and plans to seek advice from Milwaukee closer Trevor Hoffman during next week’s series. “I'm enjoying this role,� Hensley said. “I think it's something I'm able to do and be really good at instead of starting. That's something I'm going to look hard at over the off season, talk with Florida and see where they're at and put my input into it.� Read more: http://miamiherald.t...l#ixzz0zeKH54RL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erick Posted September 16, 2010 Author Share Posted September 16, 2010 And I really messed up quoting this. Anyway, it seems like he thinks he can close, and Edwin feels the same way. It's possible he'll be the 2011 closer, if he continues his success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa Posted September 16, 2010 Share Posted September 16, 2010 What a find he was Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rabbethan Posted September 16, 2010 Share Posted September 16, 2010 What a find he was What a change a single pitch makes. His metamorphosis is basically compromised of him learning Lincecum's changeup via Kevin Correia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mystikol87 Posted September 16, 2010 Share Posted September 16, 2010 I'm still curious how he'd be as a starter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erick Posted September 16, 2010 Author Share Posted September 16, 2010 I'm still curious how he'd be as a starter. I'd rather just stick with what works, and not mess with it. If we had a better bullpen it'd be a wise experiment, but our bullpen actually needs some more Hensley's, if anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mystikol87 Posted September 16, 2010 Share Posted September 16, 2010 I'm still curious how he'd be as a starter. I'd rather just stick with what works, and not mess with it. If we had a better bullpen it'd be a wise experiment, but our bullpen actually needs some more Hensley's, if anything. I understand not messing with that's working, sure. But I could say the same about the starting pitching, as in: If we had better SP, then I wouldn't mind leaving him in the bullpen. I'm not saying that's how I feel, but that wouldn't be wholly unreasonable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erick Posted September 16, 2010 Author Share Posted September 16, 2010 I'm still curious how he'd be as a starter. I'd rather just stick with what works, and not mess with it. If we had a better bullpen it'd be a wise experiment, but our bullpen actually needs some more Hensley's, if anything. I understand not messing with that's working, sure. But I could say the same about the starting pitching, as in: If we had better SP, then I wouldn't mind leaving him in the bullpen. I'm not saying that's how I feel, but that wouldn't be wholly unreasonable. The thing is with the way Sanabia has emerged this year, it's not really necessary. We have JJ, Sanchez, Nolasco, and Sanabia heading into next year, and then our #5 will be fine for a #5. Whether it's Volstad, or perhaps the Marlins sign a left-handed pitcher. The bullpen is very up in the air, right now. The only lock is Hensley, and then you have Badenhop and Sanches under contract. Leo Nunez might get traded, and Veras/Ohman are free agents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nny Posted September 16, 2010 Share Posted September 16, 2010 What a find he was What a change a single pitch makes. His metamorphosis is basically compromised of him learning Lincecum's changeup via Kevin Correia. It was also just a matter of being healthy; He had a very succesful season in 2006 before dealing with a ton of arm problems. Also, he's used his curve more than his change and, going by pitch linear weights, has been his best pitch. He definitely is a different pitcher from before (mostly fastball/slider while mixing in curve and change, now he's fastball/curve/change while mixing in his slider) and it's for the better, but it's not like this is a Justin Miller or something situation of a horrible starter become a good bullpen arm; He's always been good, just not healthy. As far as starting goes, the general translation of MR -> SP is +0.80 points to FIP, which would make him roughly a ~3.70 ERA SP. Obviously some things change, some guys' stuff is better starting while others is better out of the pen. Personally I definitely think his stuff would translate very well to starting and would love to see him get a shot as I think he'd greatly outperform everyone not named JJ/Anibal/Nolasco (And he could even outperform the last two), but we obviously have a big need in the bullpen. Honestly, with how much Ricky has been struggling as a starter, converting him to a light outs closer might be something to consider. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mystikol87 Posted September 16, 2010 Share Posted September 16, 2010 It's not the best situation either way, unfortunately. An SP is of course so much more valuable than an RP. And our rotation right now has a #1, a #3, a #3/#4, and a #5 baby who is very unproven. That makes me really nervous, too. I just wish we had more arms. Pitching depth can be so deceiving. Lou has really been right on in calling for pitching, pitching, pitching in trades the last couple of years. I'd ultimately probably prefer than Hensley stays in the 'pen, yet I can't help but be curious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nny Posted September 16, 2010 Share Posted September 16, 2010 I'm still curious how he'd be as a starter. I'd rather just stick with what works, and not mess with it. If we had a better bullpen it'd be a wise experiment, but our bullpen actually needs some more Hensley's, if anything. I understand not messing with that's working, sure. But I could say the same about the starting pitching, as in: If we had better SP, then I wouldn't mind leaving him in the bullpen. I'm not saying that's how I feel, but that wouldn't be wholly unreasonable. The thing is with the way Sanabia has emerged this year, it's not really necessary. We have JJ, Sanchez, Nolasco, and Sanabia heading into next year, and then our #5 will be fine for a #5. Whether it's Volstad, or perhaps the Marlins sign a left-handed pitcher. The bullpen is very up in the air, right now. The only lock is Hensley, and then you have Badenhop and Sanches under contract. Leo Nunez might get traded, and Veras/Ohman are free agents. I wouldn't be too high on Sanabia; his xFIP as a starter currently sits at 4.72. Yes, his control is very nice, but he doesn't strike guys out and is a fly ball pitcher. When his 3.1% HR/FB normalizes, things won't be as pretty. Sanabia is basically Nolasco circa 2006, before he learned the cutter and become a K demon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mystikol87 Posted September 16, 2010 Share Posted September 16, 2010 What a find he was What a change a single pitch makes. His metamorphosis is basically compromised of him learning Lincecum's changeup via Kevin Correia. It was also just a matter of being healthy; He had a very succesful season in 2006 before dealing with a ton of arm problems. Also, he's used his curve more than his change and, going by pitch linear weights, has been his best pitch. He definitely is a different pitcher from before (mostly fastball/slider while mixing in curve and change, now he's fastball/curve/change while mixing in his slider) and it's for the better, but it's not like this is a Justin Miller or something situation of a horrible starter become a good bullpen arm; He's always been good, just not healthy. As far as starting goes, the general translation of MR -> SP is +0.80 points to FIP, which would make him roughly a ~3.70 ERA SP. Obviously some things change, some guys' stuff is better starting while others is better out of the pen. Personally I definitely think his stuff would translate very well to starting and would love to see him get a shot as I think he'd greatly outperform everyone not named JJ/Anibal/Nolasco (And he could even outperform the last two), but we obviously have a big need in the bullpen. Honestly, with how much Ricky has been struggling as a starter, converting him to a light outs closer might be something to consider. Ricky would be really frustrating as a reliever with the HR, but that's an interesting idea. His top-of-the-rotation potential continues to be too mnuch to pass up for me, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erick Posted September 16, 2010 Author Share Posted September 16, 2010 What a find he was What a change a single pitch makes. His metamorphosis is basically compromised of him learning Lincecum's changeup via Kevin Correia. Honestly, with how much Ricky has been struggling as a starter, converting him to a light outs closer might be something to consider. Wouldn't that just be a lateral move? I wouldn't be a fan of that move. I still say Ricky Nolasco has been unfortunate the last 2 years, and all in all, he's an above average starter. Hensley's year in 2006 that you were talking about, he put up a 3.71 ERA. However, he was pitching for SD, and Petco Park is a great pitcher's park. Away from home that year, his ERA was 4.34. Also, I'm sure the Marlins want the guy making more money (Nolasco) throwing more innings, especially since he's proven he can. Having Nolasco close at his salary, they might as well sign a proven closer in free agency, if they're going to do that. IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heat84 Posted September 16, 2010 Share Posted September 16, 2010 Why should we be excited about him going 3 for 3 against the Nationals? I want to be excited, but... it was the Nationals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erick Posted September 16, 2010 Author Share Posted September 16, 2010 I'm still curious how he'd be as a starter. I'd rather just stick with what works, and not mess with it. If we had a better bullpen it'd be a wise experiment, but our bullpen actually needs some more Hensley's, if anything. I understand not messing with that's working, sure. But I could say the same about the starting pitching, as in: If we had better SP, then I wouldn't mind leaving him in the bullpen. I'm not saying that's how I feel, but that wouldn't be wholly unreasonable. The thing is with the way Sanabia has emerged this year, it's not really necessary. We have JJ, Sanchez, Nolasco, and Sanabia heading into next year, and then our #5 will be fine for a #5. Whether it's Volstad, or perhaps the Marlins sign a left-handed pitcher. The bullpen is very up in the air, right now. The only lock is Hensley, and then you have Badenhop and Sanches under contract. Leo Nunez might get traded, and Veras/Ohman are free agents. I wouldn't be too high on Sanabia; his xFIP as a starter currently sits at 4.72. Yes, his control is very nice, but he doesn't strike guys out and is a fly ball pitcher. When his 3.1% HR/FB normalizes, things won't be as pretty. Sanabia is basically Nolasco circa 2006, before he learned the cutter and become a K demon. If I can't be high on Sanabia, we might as well give up on the season because something very similar can be said for Anibal Sanchez. xFIP 4.27, 3.6% HR/FB. Although I guess the main difference is that Anibal is more of a groundball pitcher, so there's less of a chance that his fortune catches up to him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erick Posted September 16, 2010 Author Share Posted September 16, 2010 Why should we be excited about him going 3 for 3 against the Nationals? I want to be excited, but... it was the Nationals. Should be excited about his year. As in, he's been great in relief all year, regardless of the situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nny Posted September 16, 2010 Share Posted September 16, 2010 Wouldn't that just be a lateral move? I wouldn't be a fan of that move. I still say Ricky Nolasco has been unfortunate the last 2 years, and all in all, he's an above average starter. Hensley's year in 2006 that you were talking about, he put up a 3.71 ERA. However, he was pitching for SD, and Petco Park is a great pitcher's park. Away from home that year, his ERA was 4.34. Also, I'm sure the Marlins want the guy making more money (Nolasco) throwing more innings, especially since he's proven he can. Having Nolasco close at his salary, they might as well sign a proven closer in free agency, if they're going to do that. IMO. In regards to 2006, he's also a completely different pitcher now. I brought it up to show he's always been a good pitcher in regards to Rab saying one pitch made a huge difference. The pitch has made a difference, but he didn't go from nothing to ace. He went from being good to really good. I also wouldn't be in favor of moving Nolasco to the pen, but rather it's just something to think about; if the belief is that Nolasco won't be any better than the mid-4 ERA pitcher he has been as a starter, then you move him to the pen to see if his overall numbers start matching his peripherals there. That's not my belief, but what I believe doesn't matter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erick Posted September 16, 2010 Author Share Posted September 16, 2010 Another thing to consider is maybe signing someone who can start, and moving Sanabia to the pen. Watching Sanabia's starts this year, most of his dominance occurs in the first 2, 3, maybe 4 innings, and then he tires out some. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nny Posted September 16, 2010 Share Posted September 16, 2010 If I can't be high on Sanabia, we might as well give up on the season because something very similar can be said for Anibal Sanchez. xFIP 4.27, 3.6% HR/FB. Although I guess the main difference is that Anibal is more of a groundball pitcher, so there's less of a chance that his fortune catches up to him. A 4.27 ERA isn't bad; Anibal has a low HR/FB% in his career (6.8%), which shows his might actually be a talent rather than an anomaly (Sanabia might also have a similar talent, but we can't make that assumption now) - though it also is a rather small sample size, and a regression with his career numbers and the norm would be best to use for a future projection; Anibal has room to believe in strike out improvement (Stuff [Was considered a top pitching prospect and has shown a great ability to locate his breaking pitches], minor league numbers [10.1 MILB K/9]; Sanabia has never been a strike out guy and never been considered to become one), Sanabia likely is who he is (Unless he goes the Ricky route in learning another pitch) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gizmo Posted September 16, 2010 Share Posted September 16, 2010 Hensley should've been the 5th starter to begin the season anyway. But the team just had to go and sign Nate Robertson.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erick Posted September 16, 2010 Author Share Posted September 16, 2010 Hensley should've been the 5th starter to begin the season anyway. But the team just had to go and sign Nate Robertson.... Imagine this year's bullpen without Clay Hensley, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gizmo Posted September 16, 2010 Share Posted September 16, 2010 Hensley should've been the 5th starter to begin the season anyway. But the team just had to go and sign Nate Robertson.... Imagine this year's bullpen without Clay Hensley, though. Imagine a rotation that didn't have Nate Robertson and Jorge Sosa, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erick Posted September 16, 2010 Author Share Posted September 16, 2010 Hensley should've been the 5th starter to begin the season anyway. But the team just had to go and sign Nate Robertson.... Imagine this year's bullpen without Clay Hensley, though. Imagine a rotation that didn't have Nate Robertson and Jorge Sosa, Robertson was our #5, and won 6 games for us here. Sanabia still needed to develop in the minors, and Andrew Miller has sucked all year. West hasn't really done anything but frustrate the organization. It's not as if we had some other options after Robertson. He allowed us to develop our young pitchers like Sanabia some more, and also allowed us to move Hensley to the bullpen, which has been significant because he's been our most consistent (only consistent, actually) bullpen pitcher all year. Not a bad return for Jay Voss, as far as I'm concerned. Jorge Sosa though...lets get rid of him tonight. :cool Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishes on the Pond Posted September 16, 2010 Share Posted September 16, 2010 I'm still curious how he'd be as a starter. Me too. He won a start out of ST and hasn't had it yet :| Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Altamonte Posted September 16, 2010 Share Posted September 16, 2010 And I really messed up quoting this. Anyway, it seems like he thinks he can close, and Edwin feels the same way. It's possible he'll be the 2011 closer, if he continues his success. Possible but i wouldnt bet on it... He actually has been the only one who actually looked like a real ML closer this season He knows what 1-2-3 means Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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