I'm referring to pitching in general, not just a starter, but didn't Loria or Beinfest (think Loria but can't remember) not almost guarantee we would make a further acquisition yesterday? Still waiting......

Pavano is Nolasco shifted with a better track record.

 

 

Once again, this is false.

Once again, this is false.

 

 

Really? It's false? Compare every single regular statistic across the stat line.

 

He pitched more games. And more innings. And more complete games. And more shutouts. He gave less HRs per game. He indeed struckout less. He won more games (although as you know I think that stat is useless). He gave up less walks and hits/IP. And less runs per game.

 

Ricky might have better supporting stats. I dont care. Because in the end what happens on the field is what happens. Dont care about luck. I'll go with the lucky guy then if that's what it takes.

 

It's not false. Pavano went deeper into more games than Nolasco did. End of story.

Except "luck" stats don't have a good chance of repeating themselves. If asking who had the better season last year, luck matters, but in trying to figure out who will be better going forward, you don't take the lucky guy.

Vazquez Would Like To Pitch For Marlins

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [November 18 at 4:05pm CST]

Javier Vazquez has told associates that he’d like to pitch for the Marlins, according to Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. The right-hander would like to return to the National League and Florida has added appeal, since Miami is relatively close to Puerto Rico, his home country.

 

Vazquez has become the Marlins’ top pitching target, but they may not be able to afford him. Rodriguez hears that Vazquez has received some offers that could price him out of the Marlins’ grasp. After struggling through the 2010 season, Vazquez wasn’t expecting to see offers like the ones he’s getting, though it's unclear what those offers actually look like.

Vazquez Would Like To Pitch For Marlins

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [November 18 at 4:05pm CST]

Javier Vazquez has told associates that he’d like to pitch for the Marlins, according to Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. The right-hander would like to return to the National League and Florida has added appeal, since Miami is relatively close to Puerto Rico, his home country.

 

Vazquez has become the Marlins’ top pitching target, but they may not be able to afford him. Rodriguez hears that Vazquez has received some offers that could price him out of the Marlins’ grasp. After struggling through the 2010 season, Vazquez wasn’t expecting to see offers like the ones he’s getting, though it's unclear what those offers actually look like.

 

 

 

 

Discount?

Except "luck" stats don't have a good chance of repeating themselves. If asking who had the better season last year, luck matters, but in trying to figure out who will be better going forward, you don't take the lucky guy.

 

 

That's funny because they seem to keep repeating themselves with Ricky Nolasco? All I hear is that Ricky Nolasco is simply one unlucky guy. For 2 years now.

 

It's because luck is nonsense. Pavano is a good pitcher. His issue is just that he choses to pitch when he wants to pitch. Hmm... I wonder why last year was so good for Pavano? It was his contract year. He performed. That's what I'm honestly afraid of. Giving him 1 or 2 years would be fine, although I'm sure he wants a payday.

Vazquez Would Like To Pitch For Marlins

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [November 18 at 4:05pm CST]

Javier Vazquez has told associates that he’d like to pitch for the Marlins, according to Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. The right-hander would like to return to the National League and Florida has added appeal, since Miami is relatively close to Puerto Rico, his home country.

 

Vazquez has become the Marlins’ top pitching target, but they may not be able to afford him. Rodriguez hears that Vazquez has received some offers that could price him out of the Marlins’ grasp. After struggling through the 2010 season, Vazquez wasn’t expecting to see offers like the ones he’s getting, though it's unclear what those offers actually look like.

 

 

 

 

Discount?

 

If we could get him for around 4-5 M per year I'd do it in a heartbeat but I'm a little indifferent on giving him 7 or more million per year.

That's funny because they seem to keep repeating themselves with Ricky Nolasco? All I hear is that Ricky Nolasco is simply one unlucky guy. For 2 years now.

 

 

 

And so he's a completely different pitcher than he was in 08?

Have any of you guys read what other teams' fans are saying about the Marlins now that we're spending? It makes me want to go on a rampage. Everything this team does seems to be a joke to people - and this crap is coming from Cubs fans and Mets fans and Brewers fans.

That's funny because they seem to keep repeating themselves with Ricky Nolasco? All I hear is that Ricky Nolasco is simply one unlucky guy. For 2 years now.

 

 

 

And so he's a completely different pitcher than he was in 08?

 

What does that mean? Is that a question or a statement (not trying to sound like a jackass, I really am having a hard time trying to see what you're saying)

Don't understand the lovefest for Pavano, really.

 

He's probably not worth 3 years/11 million per at this point in his career.

Vazquez has had a better overall career, and has been really good when pitching for National League teams.

 

Prior to last year, this is what he's done in terms of innings pitched in the decade

2000: 217.2 (pitching for an NL team)

2001: 223.2 (pitching for an NL team)

2002: 230.1 (pitching for an NL team)

2003: 230.2 (pitching for an NL team)

2004: 198.0 (pitching for an AL team)

2005: 215.2 (pitching for an NL team)

2006: 202.2 (pitching for an AL team)

2007: 216.2 (pitching for an AL team)

2008: 208.1 (pitching for an AL team)

2009: 219.1 (pitching for an NL team)

 

That's a lot of innings.

 

His struggles have been in the American League.

The guy has been a quality pitcher/innings eater for a good portion of his career, though (especially in the NL).

 

The only thing that worries me about Vazquez is the decrease in velocity in his fastball in 2010. He should probably still be good for over 200 innings in the NL again in 2011, which is super from the #4 in the rotation, and will help the bullpen even more (less usage, and Sanabia can move to the pen, as well).

 

Posted something very similar to this in another thread. And the fact that he says he'd like to pitch here should allow us to get him for Pavano money.

 

Do it.

That's funny because they seem to keep repeating themselves with Ricky Nolasco? All I hear is that Ricky Nolasco is simply one unlucky guy. For 2 years now.

 

 

 

And so he's a completely different pitcher than he was in 08?

 

What does that mean? Is that a question or a statement (not trying to sound like a jackass, I really am having a hard time trying to see what you're saying)

 

If he hasn't been unlucky over the last two seasons like you are saying, then was he just a different pitcher in 2008 when he was awesome? What has changed?

That's funny because they seem to keep repeating themselves with Ricky Nolasco? All I hear is that Ricky Nolasco is simply one unlucky guy. For 2 years now.

 

 

 

And so he's a completely different pitcher than he was in 08?

 

What does that mean? Is that a question or a statement (not trying to sound like a jackass, I really am having a hard time trying to see what you're saying)

 

If he hasn't been unlucky over the last two seasons like you are saying, then was he just a different pitcher in 2008 when he was awesome? What has changed?

 

Maybe players are finding it easier to hit on Nolasco now that they've seen enough of him? Maybe he's lost his touch? I dont know. But if Nolasco can be unlucky, anyone can be lucky. I dont believe in luck (to a certain extent, a full season is a sample size enough. Plus, a factor that a player cant control such as run support)

I'm referring to pitching in general, not just a starter, but didn't Loria or Beinfest (think Loria but can't remember) not almost guarantee we would make a further acquisition yesterday? Still waiting......

 

 

I think it was contextual...I read the original report and got the impression that "he promised yesterday, that he would make another move" (meaning the promise occured yesterday, not the move). I then read someplace else, like mlbtraderumors, who paraphrased the original quote and made it sound more like "he promised to make another move yesterday(meaning actually make the move yesterday)".

 

 

That was difficult for me to try and explain. Hopefully I got across what I was trying to say. Haha!

That's funny because they seem to keep repeating themselves with Ricky Nolasco? All I hear is that Ricky Nolasco is simply one unlucky guy. For 2 years now.

 

 

 

And so he's a completely different pitcher than he was in 08?

 

What does that mean? Is that a question or a statement (not trying to sound like a jackass, I really am having a hard time trying to see what you're saying)

 

If he hasn't been unlucky over the last two seasons like you are saying, then was he just a different pitcher in 2008 when he was awesome? What has changed?

 

Maybe players are finding it easier to hit on Nolasco now that they've seen enough of him? Maybe he's lost his touch? I dont know. But if Nolasco can be unlucky, anyone can be lucky. I dont believe in luck (to a certain extent, a full season is a sample size enough. Plus, a factor that a player cant control such as run support)

 

 

He hasn't lost his touch because his WHIP and K numbers haven't really changed.

Once again, this is false.

 

 

Really? It's false? Compare every single regular statistic across the stat line.

 

He pitched more games. And more innings. And more complete games. And more shutouts. He gave less HRs per game. He indeed struckout less. He won more games (although as you know I think that stat is useless). He gave up less walks and hits/IP. And less runs per game.

 

Ricky might have better supporting stats. I dont care. Because in the end what happens on the field is what happens. Dont care about luck. I'll go with the lucky guy then if that's what it takes.

 

It's not false. Pavano went deeper into more games than Nolasco did. End of story.

 

Nolasco would have more innings, complete games and more shutouts if he pitched in the A.L. Pitchers never get taken out for a pinch hitter in the A.L. so it's hard to compare the pitchers by innings pitched.

Nolasco would have more innings, complete games and more shutouts if he pitched in the A.L. Pitchers never get taken out for a pinch hitter in the A.L. so it's hard to compare the pitchers by innings pitched.

 

 

This is the first really good point that I've overlooked. I'm sure on some of the occasions in Pavano's game logs where he gives up 6 or so runs he'd have been out of the game a bit earlier had his spot came up in the batting order.

 

Nonetheless, I'd still go with him if we could convince him to a single or 2 season deal.

He hasn't lost his touch because his WHIP and K numbers haven't really changed.

 

 

So then... you believe in this business of being unlucky?

 

If that's the case... what's to say his luck will change? What's to say Pavano's will change?

I've seen you vigorously defend mathematical statistics in other contexts, and now you think that luck stats are nonsense?

 

Sure, those stats aren't all-inclusive, and sometimes there are other explanations (i.e. a guy really is just more hittable than most known stats would indicate). But it's absurd to completely discount the implications of these stats when they are empirically grounded and have tremendously strong correlations.

 

And of course anyone can be lucky in any year......what does that have to do with it? Variance AKA luck is built into the equation for every single player, game, play, and pitch.

Nolasco would have more innings, complete games and more shutouts if he pitched in the A.L. Pitchers never get taken out for a pinch hitter in the A.L. so it's hard to compare the pitchers by innings pitched.

 

 

This is the first really good point that I've overlooked. I'm sure on some of the occasions in Pavano's game logs where he gives up 6 or so runs he'd have been out of the game a bit earlier had his spot came up in the batting order.

 

Nonetheless, I'd still go with him if we could convince him to a single or 2 season deal.

 

But even so, that means he has to face 9 hitters instead of 8 hitters and a pitcher.

Vazquez is an improvement on Sanabia or Volstad, and it allows you to push Sanabia into the bullpen. That's worth the $6 mil he'll likely make. Even with the dip in fastball velocity, he's a safe bet to give us a lot of innings and he'll give us a low 4 era.

 

 

 

That's not necessarily worth 6 million, considering there are probably guys cheaper than 6 mill, who that can be said for, as well. (specifically the "improvement over Sanabia" part)

 

 

I am in no way suggesting that he can keep it up, but what would you expect from Sanabia with a whole season? He did just post a 3.7 ERA, albeit in limited starts. League will probably figure him out somewhat but I don't think a mid 4s ERA is a reach, do you?

Pavano wants 3yrs/$33 mil. Bye.

Nolasco would have more innings, complete games and more shutouts if he pitched in the A.L. Pitchers never get taken out for a pinch hitter in the A.L. so it's hard to compare the pitchers by innings pitched.

 

 

This is the first really good point that I've overlooked. I'm sure on some of the occasions in Pavano's game logs where he gives up 6 or so runs he'd have been out of the game a bit earlier had his spot came up in the batting order.

 

Nonetheless, I'd still go with him if we could convince him to a single or 2 season deal.

 

But even so, that means he has to face 9 hitters instead of 8 hitters and a pitcher.

 

Another valid point, evening things out there a bit.

I would be concerned about his ability to even pitch a full season.

 

 

fair enough, he's never even gone over 100 innings before...